MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

Here are the 5 attacks I have planned for the Germans this impulse, shown in context:

[Lothrim]

Your rules seeems fine.

I go by the following rules:

1. Never fly a mission unless you are sure you can land in a safe hex. A safe hex being defined as a hex where you will not be overrun and acess to oil is assured.
2. Keep far away from german fighters, risky attacks are for sturmoviks later in the war. If critical consider flying a night mission.
3. Do not spend you last bomber as germany can then ignore the threat
4. HQ's are super targets for GS's, almost never GS other units as a well placed ground support can flip 4+ targets at the same time.
5. Go for support of targets with few factors. A 3 factor cav can be doubled by airpower, but a fully stacked Kiev with 15 factors is difficult to support. (This is different if not playing with fractional odds)
6. Late in the turn it is not about flipping units, but about inflicting casualties.

Would I support any of the attacks that germany makes right now?
Please bear in mind that I do not have the full details, only you have that, so I might suggest something stupid

3-5 cav north of Vilna: No it is in a forrest and in rain.
4 inf in Minsk: Yes, unless germany has brought fighters that 3 factor DB-3F bomber could fly and land just north of gomel. It would provide 1,5 points rounded up to 2 (or is that rounding later in the process..?)
Stack NE of Cernauti: No
2-5 Cav: No, it is dead anyway.
Chisinau: Yes, if no german fighters can intercept and there is a plane able to support. Failing to capture this city would be a huge german failure

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

-----
Another Question: I'm setting up German attacks, and I'm wondering how soon the Soviets should attempt to lower the odds with Ground Support. This impulse is bad for it because of the Rain conditions everywhere, but in general it's something I don't always know when to do . . . switching from Ground Strike duty to Ground Support duty.

I assume it depends on 3 things:

1. How important the hex is to the overall defense.
2. How much of an odds decrease it can get.
3. How late in the turn it is -- the later being better for Ground Support as opposed to Ground Strikes.

Is this even remotely correct?

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Lothrim

Your rules seeems fine.

I go by the following rules:

1. Never fly a mission unless you are sure you can land in a safe hex. A safe hex being defined as a hex where you will not be overrun and acess to oil is assured.
2. Keep far away from german fighters, risky attacks are for sturmoviks later in the war. If critical consider flying a night mission.
3. Do not spend you last bomber as germany can then ignore the threat
4. HQ's are super targets for GS's, almost never GS other units as a well placed ground support can flip 4+ targets at the same time.
5. Go for support of targets with few factors. A 3 factor cav can be doubled by airpower, but a fully stacked Kiev with 15 factors is difficult to support. (This is different if not playing with fractional odds)
6. Late in the turn it is not about flipping units, but about inflicting casualties.

Would I support any of the attacks that germany makes right now?
Please bear in mind that I do not have the full details, only you have that, so I might suggest something stupid

3-5 cav north of Vilna: No it is in a forrest and in rain.
4 inf in Minsk: Yes, unless germany has brought fighters that 3 factor DB-3F bomber could fly and land just north of gomel. It would provide 1,5 points rounded up to 2 (or is that rounding later in the process..?)
Stack NE of Cernauti: No
2-5 Cav: No, it is dead anyway.
Chisinau: Yes, if no german fighters can intercept and there is a plane able to support. Failing to capture this city would be a huge german failure

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

-----
Another Question: I'm setting up German attacks, and I'm wondering how soon the Soviets should attempt to lower the odds with Ground Support. This impulse is bad for it because of the Rain conditions everywhere, but in general it's something I don't always know when to do . . . switching from Ground Strike duty to Ground Support duty.

I assume it depends on 3 things:

1. How important the hex is to the overall defense.
2. How much of an odds decrease it can get.
3. How late in the turn it is -- the later being better for Ground Support as opposed to Ground Strikes.

Is this even remotely correct?

You'll see the full story in my next post, but Chisinau could not be supported strongly enough to let it survive. I didn't provide any for Minsk, either, but I'll let you decide if that was smart or not. I should be posting the results of all battles soon. I've been spending a lot of time trying to figure out which tables to use on a few of the attacks.

[Klydon]

I would take a shot with the US. The European theater is hurting right now and they need to get involved in order to put pressure on the Axis there.

[composer99]

Count me in as a vote in favour of US trying to DoW Germany/Italy at the first opportunity.

[Red Prince]

That makes it 5-0 at this point, and that seems like a resounding yell for help. Looks like a US DOW in the EuroAxis is coming up soon . . . but first, the Axis impulse attacks:
-----
I thought long and hard before adding the final attack on Singapore by the Japanese, using the strong INF and the wimpy MIL units. I finally decided that I wasn't likely to be using these units again this turn, so I could afford to disorganize them and lose the MIL if it came to that. With an 86% chance at 3:1 odds (with Shore Bombardment and Ground Support), here are the percentages:

70% chance of clearing the hex
60% chance of gaining the hex
40% chance of gaining the hex without suffering a loss
10% chance of gaining the hex and remaining organized
-----
10% chance of losing both units without destroying the enemy MIL
10% chance of losing both units and clearing the hex

Anyway, with these odds and little chance of reinforcements coming for the CW, I decided it was worth the risk. So, the attacks for Impulse #5:



And the results:

Attack on Latvia [44, 50]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .979 (No), Roll = Automatic = */2B
Attack on Minsk: Assault, Roll = 3 = -/1 (attackers disorganized)
Attack on Poland [52, 52]: Assault, Roll = Automatic
Attack on Poland [55, 52]: Bitz, Fractional Odds .654 (No), Roll = 8 = */2B
Attack on Chisinau: Assault, Roll = 9+1 = 10 = */2S
Attack on Singapore: Assault, Fractional Odds .673 (Yes), Roll = 10 = */2S; USE-8 (+1 chit, 730 [4])

The attack on Minsk was an Assault because of the 50/50 chance of moving up to 6:1 odds on the Blitz CRT. While that means a 30% chance for the INF to survive to fight another day (on either 5:1 or 6:1 odds), it only offered a 10% chance that it would be as a Retreat. The deciding factor was really the Fractional Odds roll. At 6:1 odds, the Germans were almost certain to remain organized (90%). The 5:1 Blitz drops that to 70%, and the 5:1 Assault CRT drops it again to 50. In an Assault the defending INF dies no matter what the roll is, so it came down to the fact that the turn probably won't be a long one, and anything I can do to slow the Germans down is good. Since the attack involved 2 Oil dependent units and a top INF, I chose to take the 50/50 chance to disorganize them now. 2 minutes later: As it turns out, this was the right decision.

The attack NE of Cernauti was another tough decision. 5:1 Assault, or 5:1 Blitz with a 57% chance at 6:1. HQ Support garauntees that HQ-I von Leeb will end up disorganized, but the other 6 units attacking are the question. This is the attack selected in the image above, by the way. I finally decided on a Blitz combat. Even at 6:1, there's a 50% chance of the MTN surviving, and that would be a nice addition to the Persian front if Germany doesn't convert this to a Retreat. If Germany does, then it can only retreat into Cernauti . . . not something Germany would like to deal with. The downside to the Blitz table is the same as for Minsk -- a 70% to 90% chance the attackers remain organized. I even checked the weather before making this decision . . . and there's only a 30% chance that the weather will let these units move very far next impulse, so Blitz it is. 2 minutes later: Fractional Odds was a close call, but failed, not that it mattered. Once again, Germany rolled just high enough to be a pain in the neck. A roll of '7' would have meant survival for the MTN, but they rolled an '8' instead. Rats.

For Chisinau, there was really no choice. The INF was toast, and there was a tiny chance he'd disorganize his attackers (20%). He didn't. Not by a long shot.

All I can say about the attack on Singapore is that I didn't cheat. I swear it by anything you want me to swear by. The Japanese really did beat the odds and take it without getting disorganized. It did, however, cost them a lot of Oil in terms of Shore Bombardment and Ground Support. Some comfort that is, huh? Oh, and another high chit got added to the Ja Entry Pool.

A pretty successful impulse for the Axis, even with the Rain, I'd say.
-----
Edit: In case you were wondering, the Japanese don't suffer the -1 Odds Column penalty for attacking a Jungle hex. I made sure to check that before I decided to make the attack.

[Red Prince]

To finish off the impulse, I rebased 4 German FTRs to the front lines, sent an Italian NAV to British Somaliland, and rebased 2 Japanese NAV. One of them flew from Truk to Kwajalein in the Marshall Islands, triggering another USE roll and another chit. It wasn't quite high enough to drop the odds of a successful American DOW on Germany and Italy down to 50%, but it added to the pool, as you can see below.

I also debated using Rommel to reorganize those 2 MECH that were flipped during the attack on Minsk and another INF, but decided against it. There are still a few more impulses likely, and some fairly empty territory ahead.

[Red Prince]

Even though the weather hasn't been terrific, I'm glad I started up the war this turn. One of my worries was that the Germans wouldn't be able to kill off enough Soviet units . . . while doubling their production. Well, roughly halfway through the first turn of war, 34 BP worth of Russians are dead, so I'd say you were right to urge me to DOW at the first good opportunity. [:)]

[Red Prince]

Here is the moment you've all been waiting for . . . the first USA DOW attempt on both Germany and Italy!
-----
This is a long image, with 6 forms combined into one picture that you can scroll down through to follow the action.



As you can see, it didn't hurt to try it. Both chances to DOW are still at the same levels, so maybe they'll get a better roll next impulse.
-----
Over the course of the game, I've seen that the die rolls do even out, but I find it interesting that it "feels" like there are streaks at times. If you look at all of the rolls for the Axis attacks and throw this one in, that's a lot of high numbers in a row. If you were to check back with the die rolls for Japan taking cities in 1939, you'd see a bunch of low rolls in a row, and then during 1940 it was a lot of high rolls again.

Yes, this does even out over time, but it can sometimes make things just as frustrating as in a game played over the table. I've yet to play a game of any kind which didn't make me feel the dice were loaded at times. For the sake of the Allies, let's hope these virtual dice don't stay loaded in this direction for too long.

[Red Prince]

Here's an overview of the Front at the start of Impulse #7. I'll get some more detail pictures up shortly so that you can see what is actually there.

[Red Prince]

1 of 3, the Far North:

[Red Prince]

2 of 3, the North:

[Red Prince]

3 of 3, the South:

[Red Prince]

This is what I'm thinking about as a starting point for stalling the Germans up North . . .

[Red Prince]

So far, in the Ukraine, this is all I can think of to do, with the blue arrow the best option because it keeps the unit in supply even though it's going to have to get disorganized.

[Red Prince]

Finally, here's the plan so far in Persia. I don't know if I should move Zhukov or the CAV, and I'm going to leave the 4-3 INF in Teheran.
-----
Edit: I should note that it's likely to be 2 more impulses (at least) before the Germans actually pose a threat, because the Italian HQs are slow.

[Centuur]

I would suggest to rail the other GAR out of Riga into Pskov. Yeremenko should be moved to Vitebsk and a unit out of Vitebsk should move into the woods (if this is possible, since I don't know if both units in Vitebsk are disorganised, if not, move Yeremenko NE). He needs to survive and is far to vulnerable. Never put a USSR HQ on the front. Don't move the CAV out of Pskov to the hex you're suggesting, since that hex is a clear hex. The thing is: he's dead if you do so. I would want to keep him alive for now. The 6-4 black could move into the hex with the 5-4 white and that unit could than move in the woods hex W of Vitebsk. Than also, the Germans can't reach USSR units (except Pskov) provided the weather doesn't become Fine, and that's good
This gives you the advantage of strengthening the defense of Pskov. It isn't that bad for the Germans to move northwards. You should prevent any move eastward...

In the south, things aren't good, however: the Germans can't reach the Dnjepr yet. The 6-3 can move towards Odessa and the unit in Nikolayev can move accros the river. Also: I would suggest to find a better place for Timoshenko (start moving him eastwards).

I think the next factory to be moved has to be Kiev, since that hex is the most crappy to defend at this moment.

"What happened in Singapore", is the House of Commons shouting at Mr. Churchill... Bad luck for the CW, indeed...

[Centuur]

Aren't the Germans OOS in Persia? If so: can you ground strike the MECH and kill it in a 5-1? That would be very, very nice, killing a German MECH. However, only do so, if you are sure Zhukov will survive...

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

I would suggest to rail the other GAR out of Riga into Pskov. Yeremenko should be moved to Vitebsk and a unit out of Vitebsk should move into the woods (if this is possible, since I don't know if both units in Vitebsk are disorganised, if not, move Yeremenko NE). He needs to survive and is far to vulnerable. Never put a USSR HQ on the front. Don't move the CAV out of Pskov to the hex you're suggesting, since that hex is a clear hex. The thing is: he's dead if you do so. I would want to keep him alive for now. The 6-4 black could move into the hex with the 5-4 white and that unit could than move in the woods hex W of Vitebsk. Than also, the Germans can't reach USSR units (except Pskov) provided the weather doesn't become Fine, and that's good
This gives you the advantage of strengthening the defense of Pskov. It isn't that bad for the Germans to move northwards. You should prevent any move eastward...

In the south, things aren't good, however: the Germans can't reach the Dnjepr yet. The 6-3 can move towards Odessa and the unit in Nikolayev can move accros the river. Also: I would suggest to find a better place for Timoshenko (start moving him eastwards).

I think the next factory to be moved has to be Kiev, since that hex is the most crappy to defend at this moment.

"What happened in Singapore", is the House of Commons shouting at Mr. Churchill... Bad luck for the CW, indeed...

In bold above . . . technically, neither Timoshenko or Yeremenko were on the front when this all started. Both are slow. The front is catching up to them. [;)]

One of the problems with giving up Riga without a fight is that it's not just a city, it's also an extra unit in a turn or two (I think it's a GARR, which makes it 2 turns). If the GARR stays where he is, the Germans will have to stick around in the area to put together a strong enough force to beat him . . . meaning they can't charge North or East until he's taken care of.

As for the rest of what you said about the northern front, I'm sorry to say, I found it a little confusing. I can tell you that Vitebsk is unavailable for another Corps -- both units are disorganized.

In the south, it's a toss-up. Do I block a move across the river NW of Odessa? Or do I try to block a move toward Kiev? If it snows, Kiev is only 2 impulses away right now. Which means I agree with you that its factory needs to find its way to Archangel this impulse.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Aren't the Germans OOS in Persia? If so: can you ground strike the MECH and kill it in a 5-1? That would be very, very nice, killing a German MECH. However, only do so, if you are sure Zhukov will survive...

It would be very nice, but I haven't had time to get my LND in range yet. Maybe the 17 range one is, but I don't remember because it has to fly around Turkey. I have 2 or 3 LND heading that way, but they only got halfway there before the attacks began this turn.

I've also been burned on 5:1 attacks with Zhukov before. In my last game, he died on the 5th impulse in a 2-unit 5:1 attack on Teheran that rolled up a '1' and killed them both. I think it's too risky at the moment.