MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

I don't think I've actually shown the forms used to DOW nations. The top form is the one used for DOWs on Major Powers (and for breaking a pact when it is possilbe), and the bottom one is used for DOWs on Minor Nations. The Special Actions box is where things like the Soviet land claims and Closing the Burma Road show up.

[Lothrim]

Hi Red Prince

I think that it is very cool to follow this AAR. I have played a lot of WIF games in the past, but i simply do not have the time any more. I get all tired thinking about setting up a new game using vassal and trying to remember 100+ pages of rules.

You are marketing this product pretty good. I can envision myself playing WIF again.
Even without an AI to play against I think that i will buy this product.

About strategy:
I do not know if the grand strategy is up to debate or if you decided upon a barbarossa 41 ?
Personally in the game that you have right now, I would wait for a 42 barbarossa.

Why? Because it is all about production, you need to out produce your enemy.
An attack on russia now will (with the information that I can see in your posts) not deliver a knockout blow.

I fail to see the 3 kill stacks that needs to roam the Steppes of USSR and kill 3 stacks each fair impulse
causing USSR to bleed 30+bp each turn.

An attack now will just give the USSR build points and tie up you activity limits.

Personally I would haress the CW with subs, strategic bombardment and an invasion in India.
The Japanese could declare war on ussr and attack persia and the far east while germany has a huge force on the border.
Ussr will be hard pressed to provide a credible defense to the japanese while guarding against germany.
German troops will then sneak up behind the japanese and threaten a brutal surprise attack.

Building your para units and marines or just redeploying the italian transport capacity towards england will
force CW to seriously consider the safety of the homeland thus tying up his forces.

But just ignore my advice, I just itch to move the counters myself

Regards
Jesper

[Red Prince]

While I know I've got people online, I want to post this question: How cruel should I be to the CW?

N/D '40 was a short turn, and because of this the CW was not prepared to fully protect the Convoy force in the Bay of Biscay. Even if more ships were left at sea, none of them could have ended up in the 0 Box at the end of the turn. The only way to fix the problem would be for the Allies to choose to go first in J/F '41 . . . and that is something that was not an appealing option -- the Allies have no urgent plans, and the weather outlook was very grim, meaning they might get up to +2 on the Initiative Track extremely early in this game. That could help a lot when Barbarossa comes.

Now, here's the thing. I have 10 Axis SUBs that can reach the Bay of Biscay. All I need to do for this to happen is to have Germany choose a Combined Action (Italy needs a Naval Action anyway). Germany actually needs the Combined more than it needs a Land Action right now, to help get the widely spread air units into better positions . . . and they don't actually need more than 8 land moves . . . and I'm sure I can find 2 to skip.

So, do I make the CW suffer for this "mistake?" Or should I forgive this one and just let the opportunity pass?
-----
Note: If this were a real game, I'd crush them if at all possible. The reason I ask is because even though I don't see what else I could have done given the limits imposed last turn by a single Naval Action and a needed Combined Action, I know you think I play the CW terribly (and sometimes I do), and I'm sure to hear frustration if I do this without "consent".


-----
Edit: The other reason I ask is that if the Axis gets lucky, it could reduce the CW production to practically nothing until the USA enters the war.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Lothrim

Hi Red Prince

I think that it is very cool to follow this AAR. I have played a lot of WIF games in the past, but i simply do not have the time any more. I get all tired thinking about setting up a new game using vassal and trying to remember 100+ pages of rules.

You are marketing this product pretty good. I can envision myself playing WIF again.
Even without an AI to play against I think that i will buy this product.

And I don't even work on commission! [;)] Glad to see you are excited about the game again.

About strategy:
I do not know if the grand strategy is up to debate or if you decided upon a barbarossa 41 ?
Personally in the game that you have right now, I would wait for a 42 barbarossa.

Why? Because it is all about production, you need to out produce your enemy.
An attack on russia now will (with the information that I can see in your posts) not deliver a knockout blow.

I fail to see the 3 kill stacks that needs to roam the Steppes of USSR and kill 3 stacks each fair impulse
causing USSR to bleed 30+bp each turn.

An attack now will just give the USSR build points and tie up you activity limits.

The Germans don't have the kill stacks, or at least not many of them yet, but the larger concern here is that the USA is going to be in the war very soon, and while the USSR has fewer units on the map, it will be easier to cut them off and get behind enemy lines (more on that below). Once the USA is in the war, the Axis is going to start losing its production "advantage" anyway, so extra units are going to be needed to defend the west coast of Europe.

That's the prevailing wisdom at the moment, anyway, and I agree with it. The exact timing of the attack has yet to be determined. It's completely dependent on the weather outlook.

Personally I would haress the CW with subs, strategic bombardment and an invasion in India.
The Japanese could declare war on ussr and attack persia and the far east while germany has a huge force on the border.
Ussr will be hard pressed to provide a credible defense to the japanese while guarding against germany.
German troops will then sneak up behind the japanese and threaten a brutal surprise attack.

Building your para units and marines or just redeploying the italian transport capacity towards england will
force CW to seriously consider the safety of the homeland thus tying up his forces.

But just ignore my advice, I just itch to move the counters myself

Regards
Jesper

The USSR in this game won't be defending Siberia. They know that an attack is coming, probably from 3 directions. Priority goes to the Oil fields and the defense of Moscow. As the Axis player, Japan and the Germans will almost certainly try to attack the Soviets within a few impulses of each other. Japan won't need a large force to cut off the Far-East, and doesn't dare hit the CW until the USA finally passes the Oil Embargo. When that happens, they need to be ready to take the NEI instantly.

As for Italy, it's another issue concerning pulling the USA into the war too early. They are going to stay out of it until they are absolutely needed, or until the German forces are covering Italy's butt in Iraq at least.

Again, Jesper, thank you for your input and your support. I'm glad you are enjoying this, and I hope you'll continue to add your thoughts to the on-going process of strategic decisions. Every voice is heard (yes, and sometimes ignored [;)] ) and welcome.

-Aaron

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

While I know I've got people online, I want to post this question: How cruel should I be to the CW?

N/D '40 was a short turn, and because of this the CW was not prepared to fully protect the Convoy force in the Bay of Biscay. Even if more ships were left at sea, none of them could have ended up in the 0 Box at the end of the turn. The only way to fix the problem would be for the Allies to choose to go first in J/F '41 . . . and that is something that was not an appealing option -- the Allies have no urgent plans, and the weather outlook was very grim, meaning they might get up to +2 on the Initiative Track extremely early in this game. That could help a lot when Barbarossa comes.

Now, here's the thing. I have 10 Axis SUBs that can reach the Bay of Biscay. All I need to do for this to happen is to have Germany choose a Combined Action (Italy needs a Naval Action anyway). Germany actually needs the Combined more than it needs a Land Action right now, to help get the widely spread air units into better positions . . . and they don't actually need more than 8 land moves . . . and I'm sure I can find 2 to skip.

So, do I make the CW suffer for this "mistake?" Or should I forgive this one and just let the opportunity pass?
-----
Note: If this were a real game, I'd crush them if at all possible. The reason I ask is because even though I don't see what else I could have done given the limits imposed last turn by a single Naval Action and a needed Combined Action, I know you think I play the CW terribly (and sometimes I do), and I'm sure to hear frustration if I do this without "consent".


-----
Edit: The other reason I ask is that if the Axis gets lucky, it could reduce the CW production to practically nothing until the USA enters the war.

Send out the Subs, but don't bet on them destroying the CW. The weather will reduce their ability to find the CW.

[Red Prince]

While I'm waiting for thoughts on the SUB situation, I'm going to try to create one of those "extreme Flyout" images, so you'll see what the Nazi-Soviet Pact border looks like. Expect it to show up in an hour or two. (These things take time with so many multi-unit stacks on the board).

[Red Prince]

I'm trying to make these maps as easy to view as possible. To that end, I've removed the weather overlay and the hex control overlay (the flags) from the map. I want to give you a view at Zoom Level 6, since I don't like the low-resolution counter images nearly as much as the high-resolution counters. This means big files, and that means reducing overall quality.

I want to show the entire border, so I might have to present it in groups. I'm hoping that showing Finland separately will allow me to cover the rest of the border in a single screenshot (edited, of course). This won't force you to jump back and forth between images in order to get a "grand-scheme of things" idea of what's going on, since there's nothing going on here at all (until the Soviet Reserves show up -- but that's a different issue and post for later).

So, I give you the emptiness that is Finland:

[Red Prince]

Still having to deal with enormous file sizes, so I'll try to break things down into reasonable sets of units along the border. Here's a look at Finland and the upper Baltic states:

[composer99]

Re: Bay of Biscay

The CW really ought to have moved its convoys in this sea area to Faroes' Gap; Bay of Biscay is in range of Axis land-based air in France & Iberia (theoretically, there may not be any LBA actually based there right now - and it can't fly in this weather anyway). While not as distant from German forces in Kiel/Hamburg as the Bay of Biscay, Faeroes' Gap is further away from Axis forces based in France and from the Med.

So yes, the Axis should go all out while the going is good.

Re: Production advantage

Normally the Axis has a production advantage of 10-15 bp per turn after the fall of France until the US gets off its first gear up. Because of the early gear up, the Allies have had a slight edge (5 bp +/- 1-2 bp per turn) even with the conquest of France and the crippling of China.

So as far as I am concerned the Axis lost the production game when the US geared up so early and things are going to go downhill from there (all the more so since Red Prince is playing with the extended game to 1948). IMO only a rapid collapse of the USSR and redeployment of the best German forces to the Western Front will keep them in the game. If the Allies can mount an offensive campaign of some kind in campaign season 1941 and get ashore somewhere in force (most likely Spain/Morocco) it will be tough going for the Axis if the USSR is still kicking.

Re: Karelia

The Finns should redeploy at least a spare ski division to cut off the rail line to prevent factories from being railed to Murmansk, ideally at the narrowest point of the Karelian isthmus. The USSR will either have to redeploy forces to counter or simply give up railing factories to Murmansk until it can re-occupy the rail line (by which point it's probably too late).

[brian brian]

you can only roll for Allied Support Attacked Minor on the turn of DOW. As Mozambique is a country, not a territory it would not go neutral regardless of being Portugal's new Home Country or not. Sao Tome, the Canaries, Goa, East Timor, and the regrettably included Macao would go neutral unless conquered or occupied by Portugal's allies. Portugal, and thus Mozambique (and Pt. Gambia and Angola), has been at war with the Axis since the turn of DOW. At least, unless I have been playing it wrong over the years, which I occasionally learn on this website.

I play a solitaire game completely differently. If Side A is worried about a blindingly obvious good move side B might do, that is precisely what you should have side B do, so side A can improve their response. That is how you learn. You should play each side as best as possible, not rationalize your way around in the game hoping your next real opponent will be stupid.

[composer99]

The relevant rule in RAW is as follows:

Allies support attacked minor - the Allies have supported an attacked minor country if there are at least 4 Allied corps or armies in the minor’s unconquered home country during the Allied minor support step of the same turn an Axis major power declared war on it. Soviet units in east Poland don’t count and neither do the minor’s own units.

Mozambique is not Portugal's unconquered home country, so there should not be an Allied support minor USE roll. If there was it's a bug.

Re: minor territories going neutral - that only happens in complete conquest, if memory serves.

Edit: Just skimmed the RAW and they confirm that territories which are unconquered when a power is completely conquered its territories go neutral if no one else has influence there (influence defined elsewhere in the rules).

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Re: Bay of Biscay

The CW really ought to have moved its convoys in this sea area to Faroes' Gap; Bay of Biscay is in range of Axis land-based air in France & Iberia (theoretically, there may not be any LBA actually based there right now - and it can't fly in this weather anyway). While not as distant from German forces in Kiel/Hamburg as the Bay of Biscay, Faeroes' Gap is further away from Axis forces based in France and from the Med.

So yes, the Axis should go all out while the going is good.

I wanted to do this on the turn I redeployed out of Cape St. Vincent, but it would have meant losing an entire turn of production for the CW . . . which might have been preferable. The idea was to redeploy these to Faeroes Gap when it wouldn't damage the CW production so much, but that may backfire. As for LBA, there isn't much of a threat to the Bay of Biscay -- yet.

ORIGINAL: brian brian

you can only roll for Allied Support Attacked Minor on the turn of DOW. As Mozambique is a country, not a territory it would not go neutral regardless of being Portugal's new Home Country or not. Sao Tome, the Canaries, Goa, East Timor, and the regrettably included Macao would go neutral unless conquered or occupied by Portugal's allies. Portugal, and thus Mozambique (and Pt. Gambia and Angola), has been at war with the Axis since the turn of DOW. At least, unless I have been playing it wrong over the years, which I occasionally learn on this website.

I was under the same impression regarding Mozambique and only rolling for Support on the first turn of a war. But then it popped up, and I started wondering if I was wrong. I guess I'll have to look into the rules and find out if this is a bug or not. Thanks for bringing that up.

I play a solitaire game completely differently. If Side A is worried about a blindingly obvious good move side B might do, that is precisely what you should have side B do, so side A can improve their response. That is how you learn. You should play each side as best as possible, not rationalize your way around in the game hoping your next real opponent will be stupid.

I agree with this philosophy, but given the early CW fumbles, I didn't want to catch too much flack for taking advantage of this. [;)]

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

The relevant rule in RAW is as follows:

Allies support attacked minor - the Allies have supported an attacked minor country if there are at least 4 Allied corps or armies in the minor’s unconquered home country during the Allied minor support step of the same turn an Axis major power declared war on it. Soviet units in east Poland don’t count and neither do the minor’s own units.

Mozambique is not Portugal's unconquered home country, so there should not be an Allied support minor USE roll. If there was it's a bug.

Re: minor territories going neutral - that only happens in complete conquest, if memory serves.

Memory does serve, and that part I know works correctly. I'll report the USE roll as a bug. Thanks.

[composer99]

Incidentally, would it not have been better to pick a CW major power home country not at risk of enemy action to be Portugal's new home country (e.g. UK or Canada)?

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Incidentally, would it not have been better to pick a CW major power home country not at risk of enemy action to be Portugal's new home country (e.g. UK or Canada)?

From a gameplay point of view, yes, it would have been better, but I honestly didn't think Mozambique would be in trouble at the time.
-----
On a slightly different note, I've been trying to pick an available country (Spain is now in at home in Spanish Sahara, for example) for the sake of testing purpose. I don't know specifically what I might find in terms of bugs, but this situation is a good example of why I do it this way.

[Red Prince]

If this fails to look good (had to reduce the quality quite a bit) I'll split it up.

This shows the entire forces for each side from Latvia to Rumania, Breslau to Moscow. In all, the Germans have 196 attack factors showing, and the Soviets have 129 defense factors (52 north of the Pripet Marshes, 77 to the south). Of course, the Soviets will get some Reserves added in (next post), for an extra 72 factors, but 24 of these are dedicated to specific cities, and at least one unit should be placed in Murmansk.

Remember, these are just the figures for what is shown in this image. It doesn't include the Finns (30 Factors) or roughly 50 more German factors that are still working their way across Europe. It also doesn't include units from either side preparing for battle on the Persian border (I'll post that soon) or the 15 Soviet factors near Leningrad.

[Red Prince]

Here are the Reserve units the USSR will get when the day comes:

[Red Prince]

This is what the USSR has to work with in Persia (26 factors) at the moment:

[Red Prince]

And the enemy they are likely to face before the Italians get involved (33 factors):

[Red Prince]

While Japan isn't ready quite yet to take on the Soviets in Siberia, here's an overview of what kind of resistance they'll face . . . um, yeah . . . I guess the Siberians must have heard of the Borg: "Resistance is futile!"