AI for MWiF - USSR

[trees]

[back to the tangent - couldn't Italy 'liberate' one of the Baltic States for this purpose?]

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Froonp

I intend to have Italy at times conquer a Baltic State for a future home country (there actually was an Italian division fighting in the Batlic States).

Only aligned countries count for deciding a new home country in case of conquest. Conquered are useless.

I meant Liberate, as per Trees comment.

[npilgaard]

ORIGINAL: trees

Persia - PARAtroopers are extremely useful in Persia. How well the Japanese are positioned to develop logistics in the Indian Ocean (Limited Overseas Supply option in play?) is a factor. Decisions on Persia should mesh with policies regarding Japan.

I agree.
In two games I have seen Japan transporting units on the coastal Persian oil hexes, either being at war with USSR og DoW'ing before Persia is conquered. Then it is very difficult to take the oil fields back.
A number of ways to prevent this (in addition to the PARA):
- coordinate USSR DoW on Persia with CW DoW and have a CW DIV (or maybe even two) ready to invade the oil fields.
- if Japan don't have any TRS within range (usually a Japanese TRS needs to be in Canton iirc to let a japanese corps reach Persia), and maybe even no chance to move a DIV in, then the DoW can be done (usually late in a turn, but need time to reach Teheran before the turn ends)
- it requires a war between USSR and Japan, if Japan is to have any benefit from the oil. If Japan is not interested in that (deployed weakly against USSR) then the oil is usually safe.

If Japan gets 2/3 oil early on and can transport them safely home probably until '42 or '43 (depending on CW) then it allows for a large amount of oil storage in the later stages of the war.

[npilgaard]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
1.1.3.1 Bulgaria
Advantages of DOW Bulgaria
∙ A 1939 attack on Bulgaria can usually cut off both the Turkish and Bulgarian resources, even if Bulgaria is not conquered.

Disadvantages of DOW Bulgaria
∙ It takes planning, units, and time.
∙ If the USSR declares war on Bulgaria, Italy can align Bulgaria and hence create a pretty safe second home. Of course this assumes that Bulgaria is not conquered by the USSR.

Also, the US entry hit (-9). Imho it is important to get US production geared up asap (means quite a lot of BP over the course of the game), and it is not worth it to DoW Bulgaria (especially since it removes attention from Borderlands, Persia, Siberia/Japan etc.)

Edit: But I agree that the AI should not be to predictable, and it does have some advantages to DoW Bulgaria, so maybe a percentage chance to do it (perhaps under certain circumstances).

[ptey]

ORIGINAL: trees

[I am working on an analysis of 'stuffing the border' to post; I have a spreadsheet done but it needs several paragraphs of text to go with it]

Im looking forward to seeing this. My own back-of-the-envelope calculation says that if Germany does any substantial lendlease to Italy to get italian airforce build, USSR can stuff pretty easy. But its ofcourse quite dependent on options used.

[dale1066]

Thought I'd say something re an early Russian Japan war, it impacts on the China changes re map scale and the consequent more fluid front between Japan and China.

From what I have seen on the forum there seems a general agreement that japan has more of an advantage over china than in the original WiF and that it is easier to put china down than it used to be. This seems to be bourne out by my experience of CWiF.

Getting to the point of this post and that is to help in avoiding this a serious DoW by the USSR on Japan at an opportune time will go along way to help the balence of play in that area. By 'serious' i mean not just a DoW made just to get the land moves for use in other theatres but one that entails an advance by Zhukov and his Siberians threatening Harbin and the northeren resource and killing off a few weak units

I accept that japan can go for Vladivostock and also that it will probably take it since its on the coast but it takes time and proves a diversion. Japan cannot put land units/HQs everywhere

Just a thought has this sort of strategy been tried before? I believe Zhukov did whip the japanese army historically so perhaps history vindicates this. Left alone to his own devices in 39/40 japan can and probably will carve up china Its the allies job not to give up on china and help her as much as possible at this point.

[Zorachus99]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
1.1.3.2 Rumania


Don't demand Bessarabia
∙ Demanding Bessarabia makes it possible for Italy to align Yugoslavia prior to the attack on Russia.
∙ Not demanding Bessarabia means Germany has to attack Yugoslavia prior to attacking the USSR in order to be able to align Rumania and start Barbarossa adjacent to the Ukraine.
∙ The USSR can delay demanding Bessarabia if Germany is not ready to DOW Yugoslavia. The USSR can therefore wait until Germany redeploys to DOW Yugoslavia. The timing is critical though, for as soon as Germany DOW Yugoslavia, Germany is immediately able to align Rumania, and Russia can no longer demand Bessarabia.

Please note that condition 3 above is incorrect. If Germany or Italy align Yugoslavia, Rumania can be declared in the war because Belgrade is axis controlled.

Just happy to help [:'(]

[ptey]

ORIGINAL: Zorachus99

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
1.1.3.2 Rumania


Don't demand Bessarabia
∙ Demanding Bessarabia makes it possible for Italy to align Yugoslavia prior to the attack on Russia.
∙ Not demanding Bessarabia means Germany has to attack Yugoslavia prior to attacking the USSR in order to be able to align Rumania and start Barbarossa adjacent to the Ukraine.
∙ The USSR can delay demanding Bessarabia if Germany is not ready to DOW Yugoslavia. The USSR can therefore wait until Germany redeploys to DOW Yugoslavia. The timing is critical though, for as soon as Germany DOW Yugoslavia, Germany is immediately able to align Rumania, and Russia can no longer demand Bessarabia.

Please note that condition 3 above is incorrect. If Germany or Italy align Yugoslavia, Rumania can be declared in the war because Belgrade is axis controlled.

Just happy to help [:'(]

No, its correct. For the axis to align Yugo they need to control Rumania.

[Zorachus99]

ORIGINAL: ptey

ORIGINAL: Zorachus99

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
1.1.3.2 Rumania


Don't demand Bessarabia
∙ Demanding Bessarabia makes it possible for Italy to align Yugoslavia prior to the attack on Russia.
∙ Not demanding Bessarabia means Germany has to attack Yugoslavia prior to attacking the USSR in order to be able to align Rumania and start Barbarossa adjacent to the Ukraine.
∙ The USSR can delay demanding Bessarabia if Germany is not ready to DOW Yugoslavia. The USSR can therefore wait until Germany redeploys to DOW Yugoslavia. The timing is critical though, for as soon as Germany DOW Yugoslavia, Germany is immediately able to align Rumania, and Russia can no longer demand Bessarabia.

Please note that condition 3 above is incorrect. If Germany or Italy align Yugoslavia, Rumania can be declared in the war because Belgrade is axis controlled.

Just happy to help [:'(]

No, its correct. For the axis to align Yugo they need to control Rumania.

Axis can still align Yugo if Russia demands Bessarabia. They have to deny the Bessarabian claims for Hungary (DOW it), and DOW Bulgaria to prevent it from being USSR, and align Rumania.

[composer99]

If the Axis want to align Yugo, they also need to have control of Greece (indeed, the major power that controls Athens is the one who aligns Yugoslavia).

[Mziln]

ORIGINAL: composer99

If the Axis want to align Yugo, they also need to have control of Greece (indeed, the major power that controls Athens is the one who aligns Yugoslavia).

Yugoslavia

The Commonwealth can declare that Yugoslavia is aligning with it during any Allied declaration of war step if Yugoslavia is neutral and there are a total of 4 or more Commonwealth corps in any adjacent countries.


France can declare that Yugoslavia is aligning with it during any Allied declaration of war step if Yugoslavia is neutral and there are a total of 4 or more French corps in any adjacent countries.


An Axis major power that controls Athens can declare that Yugoslavia is aligning with it during any Axis declaration of war step if:

• Yugoslavia is neutral; and
• Italy, Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria, Greece and Albania are all Axis controlled.

This would meen that the Axis would have to:

Have conqured Greece. While currently holding Athens and Albania.


Be at war with Russia to have aligned Hungary, Rumania, and Bulgaria.

Or conqured Hungary, Rumania, and/or Bulgaria.

[Zorachus99]

I guess the idea is depending on what options are taken, prediction of the oponnents plans is in a suitable range.
 
For example axis denies Hungary's claim on bessarabia, Aligns Rumania next impuse, and DOW's Bulgaria to keep it out of russian hands.  If Yugo is not conquered the Computer would have a high likelihood of knowing the Axis would prefer invading Greece to Align Yugo.  That would perhaps increase the value of certain hexes to the AIO?

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Zorachus99

I guess the idea is depending on what options are taken, prediction of the oponnents plans is in a suitable range.

For example axis denies Hungary's claim on bessarabia, Aligns Rumania next impuse, and DOW's Bulgaria to keep it out of russian hands.  If Yugo is not conquered the Computer would have a high likelihood of knowing the Axis would prefer invading Greece to Align Yugo.  That would perhaps increase the value of certain hexes to the AIO?

I consider the Balkans a mess (historically acccurate too[;)]). I need to lay out all the possible combinations and then program the AIO responses (for both the Axis and Allied sides). I haven't done this in detail yet - though the primary combinations of claims, alignments, and DOWs have been analyzed.

[coregames]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

I consider the Balkans a mess (historically acccurate too[;)]). I need to lay out all the possible combinations and then program the AIO responses (for both the Axis and Allied sides). I haven't done this in detail yet - though the primary combinations of claims, alignments, and DOWs have been analyzed.

The most important strategic consideration for Germany in this is whether they plan to go for Barbarossa or not. If so, they would rather have Bessarabia, to hasten their advance in the south when war comes. Since Russia doesn't know what Germany's long-term intentions are, setting up against the Rumanians at the start can settle the matter and, depending on how Germany responds to the claim, give some clues about Axis strategy. Since Germany sets up last, if they see the Russians lined up to fight the Rumanians, they can allow the claim if they plan to avoid the Russians in '41, or DoW Yugoslavia on impulse 3 and align the Rumanians. This avoids the claim being made in the first place and keeps those forward hexes for a push in the south when war comes. If the Russians aren't set up for war with the Rumanians, Germany can take its time and not tip its hand. This is a big reason that many experienced WiFers advise Russia to set up for Rumania at first, to put pressure on the Germans to submit to the claim or to declare war on Yugo at the start. Obviously, if Russia does set up this way, it should be strong enough to deter the Rumanians from trying to fight the war.

If you keep the decision procedure simple, with Germany's AIO deciding based on whether Barbarossa is planned, and Russia's AIO always setting up for the claim on Bessarabia, it shouldn't be that complex. If Germany allows the claim, Rumania's decision about allowing the additional claims from Hungary and Bulgaria is admittedly more difficult, but should be based on which front Germany wants to emphasize when war does finally come. If the north is to be emphasized, Germany could allow the claim so that Bulgaria never becomes an issue, and if the south is to be emphasized, the Rumanians can leave with everything and help conquer the Bulgarians outright. All of this assumes that Germany is determined to be the one declaring war on Russia when the time comes.

Much of this has been dealt with already in the forum, but hopefully this provides more detailed thought processes. Of course, others will have different perspectives about the Balkans, but in general, the AIO can standardize its approach so that such decisions aren't as complex as when a human has to stew over this stuff.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Thanks, that was useful to me.

For the AIO these decisions will be instantanious -becuase I will have worked out all the possibilities in advance. However, I expect to use random numbers for deciding in some places. So where you gave a couple of reasonable ways for Germany to go, I'll make them probabilities.

[composer99]

From the German point of view, it is also good, defensively speaking, to align Rumania before the USSR demands Bessarabia, as it gives you the Dneister river line down there. If I recall the map correctly, that is.
 
From the Soviet point of view, the USSR should not always set up against Rumania first. There are, for example, good reasons to set up some assets down near Persia early, since in the early part of the game the Japanese may be too busy in China to spare units to intervene. Also, the earlier the USSR takes Persia (and even Iraq), the longer it gets to use their oil for production/oil before Barb.
 
The USSR may also set up vs. Finland initially - since seizing the borderlands, like demanding Bessarabia, reduces the USSR's treaty obligations to Germany. Also, it is a lot easier to set up first for Finland and then go after Rumania then the other way around, and while the Germans can head off a Bessarabia by attacking Yugoslavia, they can't do anything to prevent a demand of the Borderlands.
 
Other things the USSR can do when setting up vs. Rumania, of course include the Bulgarian gambit, cheesy as it is, or set up initially vs. Rumania and then rail some units (and rebase some planes) east to make war on the Japanese.

[dale1066]

Asuming that the ussr sets up for claiming bessarabia early and germany wishes to deny this thinking that those hexes are too valuable to just give up and denies them.

Then the USSR must make an immediate DOW on Rumania.

From what I remember of the first few turns the forces involved would mean that if the ussr wanted this war could be allowed to go on almost indefinately, neither side having massive forces and since certain conditions having to be met for either side to stop it.

Germany can enforce a peace between Rumania and the USSR during any peace step if:
• no hex of Rumania, outside of Bessarabia, is Soviet controlled; and
• Germany and the USSR are not at war.

BTW these rules below still valid ?

I haven't looked at the latest map/unit tallies but a capture of a rumanian mountain hex and placement therein of a couple of reasonable russian units could enable this war to rumble on

Obviously germany cannot allow Rum to fall ?

But and especially if the oil / resource destruction options are in place Russian strategic bombing can do some serious damage to these precious resources so would Russia want the war to end? Can intervening german air intercept these? what are intervening german land units allowed to do? I can't remember the situation for intervening against neutral major powers.

Can odessa factory be railed out once free of ZOC or is this another advantage gained when at war with a major power, (the DOW on Italy thing?)

Is this analysis of the bessarabia situation correct?

[Incy]

Well, generally the war won't rumble on.

Normal outcome is that russia will conquer Rumania. Germany can help defend Rumania, but can't counterattack, that has to be done by the rumanians, which aren't exactly capable of that.

Proper russian play will give priority to blocking the rails in to Rumania, this blocking (further) german reinforcements.
Infiltration and attacks will soon enough bring the russians to Buchuresti, they do start with several good HQs, a good airforce, and plenty of land units. Plus they actually get GBAs from killing rumanians, if I read the rules correctly.

In some cases the situation will stall, either because of heavy russian losses, germany being able to bring in many reinforcements, other fronts russia has to take care of, fear of taking losses, or fear of being caught with the army still in Rumania as Barbarossa starts.

[Froonp]

GBA are Ge Reserves, so can't enter the game before Russia is at war with Germany.

[Froonp]

But and especially if the oil / resource destruction options are in place Russian strategic bombing can do some serious damage to these precious resources so would Russia want the war to end? Can intervening german air intercept these?

Can't intercept as these strat bomb missions are directed against Rum hexes, not German units.

what are intervening german land units allowed to do? I can't remember the situation for intervening against neutral major powers.

Defend only.

Can odessa factory be railed out once free of ZOC or is this another advantage gained when at war with a major power, (the DOW on Italy thing?)

Odessa factory can't rail out since you can only rail out if your territory is penetrated by enemy forces.