I don’t like small-ship engagements, because no matter what you do, both sides generally lose a bunch of ships. The problem is that the detection horizon for ships is about 20-25 nm, and if you see them, they see you, and most SS missiles work at that range, and then it’s just
Force Analysis
USSR
2 x DDG (mod) Kashin: 4 x SS – 43 nm, 2 x SA – 14 nm
3 x FFL Nanuchka: 6 x SS – 60 nm, 1 x SA – 8 nm
4 x PTM Osa: 4 x SS – 25 nm
and maybe
2 x DDG (Mod) Kashin: 4 x SS – 43 nm, 2 x SA – 14 nm
3 x FFL Nanuchka: 6 x SS – 60 nm, 1 x SA – 8 nm
4 x PTM Petya: no useful weapons
NATO
1 x FF Yavuz: 8 x SS – 80, 1 x SA – 8 nm (limited ammo)
4 x PTM Dogan: 8 x SS – 60
1 x PM Comattante: 4 x SS – 23
3 x PM Comattante: 6 x SS – 16
2 x PHM Sparviero: 2 x SS – 54
and maybe
4 x PTM Kartal: 2 x SS – 16
The extra NATO group adds little combat value. The extra USSR group greatly increases their combat power. The NATO ships are initially dispersed. Most of the USSR ships have a small anti-missile defence capacity. So at best, the NATO force is about equal to the USSR force.
However, and it’s a big however, NATO does have one helicopter, an AB-212, which has a useful (60 nm) SS radar. When searching for small ships, the range is 40 nm, which corresponds to an area of about 5,000 square miles. Not much compared to the size of the Mediterranean, but about 4 times as much as what a ship can search, and that doesn’t consider that the helicopter travels at least 3 times as fast as a ship. More to the point, the helicopter can safely search for enemy ships, which the ships themselves cannot do.
How the scenario plays out
Phase 1: The helicopter flies around looking for things (1). The dispersed NATO ships move closer together. The USSR ships do whatever they do. At some point, NATO locates the USSR ships, but the USSR only locates the NATO helicopter.
Phase 2: The NATO ships charge the USSR ships. The USSR ships continue to do what they do (2).
Phase 3: NATO launches a bunch of missiles (44) from outside of ship-ship detection range. This should easily sink 7 USSR ships (the biggest ones), at which point the exercise is already over. The only difficulty is that you don’t really know what the USSR ships are before missile launch, because you can’t really risk sending the sole helicopter in too close, so you will likely use more missiles than necessary against most of the targets.
Phase 4: The helicopter also carries AS missiles! So it shoots those missiles and flies back home and brings more missiles and eventually sinks the remaining USSR ships, which have no defence.
Notes
1) With only one helicopter, NATO cannot maintain a continuous search. However, if the ships are generally moving into the area that the helicopter has recently searched, they are generally "safe". What about when the helicopter has to land to pick up fuel? Suppose that enemy ships are following the helicopter at top speed (30 kn) from just outside of its radar range (45 nm in this case). Consider, for example, when the helicopter, travelling at 100 kn, is about 30 nm from its ship.
It will take 1.3 hours for the helicopter to land and refuel. The enemy ships, coming in generally from the SE in this picture, will be able to travel about 40 nm in this time interval. So when the helicopter turns its radar on again, the enemy ships will still be about 30 nm from the friendly ships. That's well within range of most missiles. However, our ships are still invisible, so it will be a very one-sided encounter.
2) Since the USSR ships can’t really do anything to a reasonably cautious NATO helicopter, the computer won’t respond when its ships are located by the helicopter. A human might expect bad things, and might run away at top speed. Of course, ships can’t outrun an aircraft, but they can evade the enemy ships that might be closing at top speed from behind the helicopter. However, they might actually be running into an ambush. Also, the Mediterranean does have boundaries. Running toward the helicopter might be an option, especially if it looks like it’s returning for fuel, but that is almost certain to be suicidal.
