The autumn rains had stalled the German advance in early November. Even the return of solid (if frozen) ground by 8 November only saw a limited renewal of their offensive. Still, Kaluga and Rostov were both taken as German spearheads reached the outskirts of Voronezh and Soviet rearguards fell back over the mighty Don.
On the other hand, especially on the Oka-Voronezh sector, November had seen a series of small scale Soviet offensives. These had relieved the threat to Tula and forced the Germans to react. At least one Panzer Group was now locked into the front lines as their infantry were no longer able to hold off the mounting pressure of Western and Leningrad Fronts.
Losses across the month reflected these new dynamics. The Germans had been unable to repeat the major encirclements of the summer and early autumn and losses between the two sides were much more equal. Axis forces had lost 90,000 men (killed, badly wounded or captured) for 130,000 Soviet losses. German tank losses started to escalate with 400 AFVs lost against 670 Soviet losses (mostly older T-26s and BT-7s). Even in the air, losses were more even, with 200 Axis aircraft lost and 630 Soviet (again mostly older models as the VVS was undergoing a major re-organisation).
Not only were the Germans paying a high price for small gains, but it seemed as if the partisan movement was winning its war to their rear. Their rail lines at Kiev were blown again and the Velikie Luki-Vyazma sector saw a sustained series of attacks, cutting the main supply lines to Army Group Centre.
Equally, Soviet forces were recovering from their battering in the summer and autumn and the Red Army had grown by 600,000 effectives in the month.
Notes:
1 – The VVS is back from its holidays in the Urals, that is 2000 more front line aircraft than last week.
2 – Following a discussion on the main forum, I've re-organised my usage of the rear Military Districts. Urals MD now has command of all the rear area units north of Moscow and the Volga MD of the units gathering along the Volga. I'll hand over the Moscow rear to the Moscow Defense Zone when it arrives next turn thus leaving very little reporting directly to Stavka.
3 – Leningrad Front will take on 2 Shock Army (next turn) thus using up its spare command capacity. The only front I am worried about is the Bryansk Front but the conversion of cavalry divisions to corps will help, if I need to I can hand one army over to either Western or South-Western Front.
4 – Transcaucasus Front has taken over from the Volga MD between South and Caucasus Fronts. About half its manpower is still locked (till January) so this gives a slightly false idea of its effective combat power.
(Sturmoviks assigned to Leningrad Front)
If this gave grounds for optimism, the reality was that Leningrad, Kiev, Kharkiv and Minsk all lay far behind the battle fronts. 5 Soviet Republics were completely under German domination [1] while the rumble of artillery from the front lines could be heard in Moscow.
Soviet industry was still badly disrupted by the losses and evacuations but supplies and ammunition were plentiful. The main lack was in terms of artillery with few rifle divisions now having over 100 pieces.
In planning for the counteroffensive, the long front was divided into five sectors. North of Torzhok (Volkhov Front) no active operations were planned and the two sides were settling down into defensive positions. In the Crimea, 44 Army would try to regain Kerch if the opportunity arose but this operation was secondary to the main plans.
At Moscow, the bulk of 4 Fronts were involved – North Western, Kalinin, Western and the Moscow District forces. The primary goal here was to regain, the line of the river Larna – Borodino – Kaluga. In combination this would create valuable depth to the Moscow defences.
If successful, would drive the Germans back roughly 60km from the Moskva-Volga canal and shorten the front by around 6 hexes (ie allow 2 armies to move to reserve).
In addition, paratroop units were pulled out of their defensive positions and redeployed to airbases around Moscow [2]
(elements of 1 Shock Army moving to their pre-offensive positions)
The main blow was planned to land south of the Oka. SW Front was ordered to relieve the threat to Voronezh and attack towards Kursk. Leningrad Front, heavily reinforced with Katyushas and backed by some of the best VVS squadrons, was expected to take on the German Panzers and Infantry facing them. Clearing the south back of the Oka around Kaluga would assist Western Front's operations and allow the offensive to develop towards Bryansk. Bryansk Front, with the bulk of the Red Army's mobile forces was to take Orel and then support Leningrad Front's operations.
In the Ukraine, South and Transcaucasus Fronts were attack towards Kharkov and the Donets. South Front had just received substantial reinforcements, including mobile units to provide the capacity to exploit any German retreat. To the south, Caucasus Front was ordered to retake Rostov and try to reach the Mius.
One major concern was that overall the Soviet Forces lacked superiority in anything but aircraft. The solution was to concentrate on key sectors. Overall, Germany and its allies had 5 million men (3.4 million German), 47,000 guns, 3,000 tanks and 3,500 aircraft. This was matched by 5.5 million men, 48,000 guns, 3,600 tanks and 7,000 aircraft.
Even as reserves moved up, front line formations rehearsed their assualt plans and the VVS deployed its fighters and bombers [3], it was clear that the margin for success was wafer thin.
Comments:
[1] – Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Bielorussia and the Ukraine
[2] – by out house rules, I'm only allowed two drops in December (ie the one I saved from November plus 1 for December), so I'm tempted to keep this as a threat. But then a well placed drop may well mess up a critical turn of reserve reactions by the Panzers.
[3] – I've decided basically on a single massive air campaign in December. If it moves, someone is going to drop a bomb on it. The result will probably be to wreck the VVS as an offensive weapon by mid-late January but it may just give me the edge I am going to need. Around Moscow, its almost all Pe-2s, Il-2s, Yaks and lend lease. The Ukraine has to make do with Migs/Lagg-5s and SB-2s.
