Chains of War 10 - Showpieces 20/7/18

[fitzpatv]

Eager for a victory, the Americans try to sink the Chinese carrier Liaoning as she sails S from Qingdao to the Taiwan Straits and beyond. You can only play the US side. While the scenario is scheduled to last three days, it will take much less time than this to play unless the Liaoning is damaged and delayed.

Liaoning is escorted by two Luyang DDGs and three Jiangkai FFGs. Between them, these ships have a formidable battery of SAMs and ASW defences including choppers and ASROCs. The carrier’s air group consists of 24 J-15 Flying Shark fighters (Su-33 copies) and some ASW and AEW helicopters.

In addition, the task force will be sailing quite close to the Chinese mainland and, therefore, within easy reach of large numbers of protective land-based fighters and even SAM systems. Moreover, there are known to be minefields in these waters.

Further complications are Chinese subs prowling the theatre and the new enemy base on Okinawa, which hosts a dozen Flankers and more SAMs, with some destroyers, frigates and corvettes offshore.

To do the job, the Allies have formed a special ‘Joint Task Force Wahoo’, which is under player control. All other Allied ships and aircraft are AI-controlled and mostly concerned with protecting Japan. They will prove of little practical use.

JTF Wahoo has three American SSNs, three Japanese and South Korean diesel subs and a selection of aircraft. USS Hawaii starts SE of Kyushu, while the Key West and North Carolina are S of Okinawa following their escape from blockade at Guam (see ‘The One-Two Punch’). The Japanese Kenryu is SW of Kyushu and the Korean Son Won-Il and her sister Ryu Gwansun are near the island of Jeju, SW of the Korean peninsula. None of these ships have any anti-shipping Tomahawks, though the Japanese and Koreans mount some Harpoons. For the American boats, torpedoes will have to suffice, albeit excellent Mk48s with a 21nm range.

Three Triton UAVs are aloft in an arc to the E of Okinawa but these recon assets are difficult to deploy close to Chinese territory, as they are slow and vulnerable. Slightly better in this respect are some P-1 and EP-3 patrol planes based at Iwo Jima and Atsugi (near Tokyo). Some of the P-1s can double as ASW or strike aircraft, with 100nm ranged ASM-1s available though, again, these are hard to get safely into attack distance.

Pure strike assets are thin on the ground. At Iwakuni, in SW Honshu, you have a squadron of F-35s. Eight of these are loaded as fighters with decent Model D AMRAAMs, while the other four have Paveways with a hopeless 4nm range. Reading earlier AARs, it seems that these have been re-equipped with JSOW/BROACH missiles to considerable effect in the past, but this can’t be done now, as neither the scenario nor the database allows the F-35B to load these weapons. You are stuck with Paveways.

At Guam, you have a single B-1 Lancer, which has an impressive-looking arsenal of 24 AGM-158C cruise missiles. These have a range of 500nm and are apparently infra-red guided weapons that can’t be detected easily by radar until they switch-on their terminal guidance. Rumour has it that they can also be steered to the target after launch to delay this until the last moment. Read on to see what happened in practice...

At Iwo Jima, there are six F-22 Raptor stealth fighters. These are theoretically capable of penetrating deep into enemy territory to cause havoc but, in this case, they are handicapped by having lousy Model C.7 AMRAAMs, which can only be used at close range. Worse, you only have enough of these for ten individual sorties. As Iwo is a long way from the action, it is as well that you have two tankers there and another six at Yokota, Tokyo.

It was obvious from the start that the job would have to be done by the SSNs some way to the S of Shanghai, with a long wait for the subs and the Chinese task force to get there. It is very difficult for the Japanese and Korean subs to intercept the Liaoning without travelling at reckless speeds and depleting their batteries, while their torpedoes have a range of just 5nm and their Harpoons are far too few to penetrate the Chinese SAM and fighter defences. As for the aircraft, you can forget the Paveways and the enemy task force has 264 SAMs plus fighters to deal with anything else, so you have to pray that the rumours about the AGM-158C IRASMs are true.

One plus is that the waters of the East China Sea are shallow, so the Chinese towed ASW arrays will not work, leaving the escorts with 15nm ranged sonar that your torpedoes can outdistance. The enemy will be further hamstrung by travelling at 20 knots and their ASW choppers are kept in pop-up mode rather than being on continuous patrol, though the latter is offset by the frequent presence of a Cub ASW, based at Tuchengzhi in the N. As the latter will have an increasing distance to fly to its patrol zone, this is another reason to attack on the approaches to the Taiwan Straits.

20/7/18 23:00Z (08:00L): As doing otherwise would have made for a very dull game, I did at least try to use the diesel subs and aircraft to wear-down the Chinese, though in truth I needn’t have bothered. At first, it was difficult to pin-down the Liaoning group, which only gave itself away (with emissions dark) by having a Super Frelon ‘Black Bat’ AEW chopper on patrol. Most initial data came from overhead satellite passes, which detect emissions only.

21/7/18 00:00Z: A Japanese EP-3 patrol plane tried to get a better fix on Liaoning but underestimated the attention radius of the land-based Flanker screen. Pursued over South Korea, it tried to dive and switched off its radars, but the first shot with a PL-15 destroyed it on a 30% chance. Thankfully, aircraft (and other) losses cost no VP and neither do you score for most of your own kills. Everything rests on sinking the Liaoning.

04:00Z: It seemed a better idea to use the Paveway F-35s for recon, as they were more able to defend themselves. Unfortunately, they have limited range and require tanker support from Yokota and you don’t want to risk your tankers too far forward. Note that it is advisable to alter Doctrine so that your JTF Wahoo tankers do NOT allow refuelling from Allied units or else the Japanese CAP over Kyushu will hog them. After much refuelling, one finally located the Liaoning by radar. The carrier was closely escorted by two Luyangs, with the three Jiangkais in an arc ahead and to either side, the force doing 20 knots. Five J-15s were on CAP, with the AEW chopper and some land-based Flankers nearby. The force was some 50-60nm off the Chinese coast and presumably knew where its own minefields were, which might have explained a few course changes.

Ryu Gwansun was too far away to intercept but Sun Won-Il could feasibly make a forlorn attempt with her six paltry Harpoons. Tracking wasn’t easy, as the F-35s had endurance for a couple of minutes at a time before having to run to a tanker and the P-1s and surviving EP-3 were too vulnerable. One P-1 over Jeju attracted a fighter and had to go dark and flee as it was.

06:00Z: Son Won-Il finally got into range with tracking from an F-35 and made her Harpoon attack, not helped by having to split the launch into a two and a four. I read that another player got lucky and hit a couple of frigates with this sub’s Harpoons. ‘Lucky’ is an understatement!. You need a miracle and, in this case, none of the weapons got past the Chinese CAP. Both Korean subs withdrew, as did the F-35s.

07:00Z: To give the B-1 a better chance (and pass the time), I sent an F-35 with fighter loadout to engage the Chinese CAP. Encouragingly, if a little luckily, it downed two Firebirds and a J-15 before disengaging. Problem is that destroying land-based fighters this far N does you no practical good, as they don’t score and won’t be around when the B-1 attacks. You really need to prioritise the J-15s and any ASW aircraft, but this isn’t easy when other fighters barrel at you at 920 knots.

09:00Z: Supported by tankers, four more Lightnings arrived to find no J-15s or ASW planes about. Pretty uselessly, they destroyed three Firebirds/Vigorous Dragons, which are no match for them, then pulled back to refuel again.

12:00Z: Prolonged aerial skirmishes resulted in another four J-15s and four Firebirds downed without loss by the F-35s. The Chinese seemed to have trouble with the Lightnings’ stealth qualities and jamming and the AMRAAM D could outrange the enemy PL-12, so the Chinese rarely got a shot away. Roughly a third of our missiles hit and generally killed their targets, so the past Forum issue about Flankers surviving 2-3 hits no longer applies with the latest settings. Another Flying Shark was damaged and would be out of action for some time, leaving Liaoning with another 18.

Meanwhile, three P-1s were transferred from Atsugi to Iwo to support the main attack later. Kenryu was plainly not going to make an intercept, so withdrew.

13:00Z: Another two J-15s were destroyed.

14:00Z: I then had a lengthy spell where the virtual dice refused to roll for me. Another J-15 was shot down but a pair of AI-controlled Japanese F-2A fighters intervened, missed all over the place and were downed in two shots by a Flying Shark. I noticed that the Chinese fighters were continually altering speed and sometimes course and tactics at random, which made it very difficult to decide when to fire. Sometimes, AMRAAMs would overshoot and at others, get outrun and peter-out, to say nothing of lousy hit rolls. Weapons which loft can be very difficult to use effectively.

15:00Z: Another F-35 had rather better luck and clobbered two J-15s and a Flanker G.

16:00Z: It looked for a while as though the F-35s would penetrate to the support aircraft around the CV, but more bad dice prevented this and allowed CAP reinforcements to arrive. Two Flankers and two J-15s were downed and another Flying Shark damaged, leaving 11. Another pair of Japanese F-2As flew into the danger zone and presented themselves as targets, one being lost.

18:00Z: Two hours of poor shooting yielded just two more J-15s downed. There were still eight Flankers from land bases in the area where I intended to engage the Liaoning.

19:00Z: I made a desperate attempt to reach and destroy a Cub ASW, which was too close to where my SSNs were now lurking in the Liaoning’s path. The chosen F-35 was hampered by repeated fuel issues and, when it finally arrived, got swamped by Flankers and was destroyed, taking one with it.

20:00Z: As my strike planes began to take-off from Iwo and Guam, an F-35 killed two more J-15s, which had come close to sneaking-up on a tanker and two P-1s coming from Japan. Managing widely-dispersed forces was a problem and, with my attention elsewhere, a Flanker from Okinawa SOMEHOW intercepted two F-22s (flying with radars dark), destroying one and damaging the other, which had to RTB. So much for Stealth!. The surviving quartet then veered-off to refuel from a tanker just when I needed them to deal with the pestilential Cub which was, thankfully, as incompetent as they were...

21:00Z: As another Flanker was downed by an F-35, the Raptors finished refuelling and headed to a patrol area over the SSNs. Despite having radars off, they were spotted by an outlying pair of Flankers. One tried to intercept, but was easily shot down before getting in range to use its AMRAAM C.7 toothpicks. Worse, the enemy then latched onto the B-1 just as it was launching its AGM-158s. I thought I’d stationed it far enough away (near Taiwan) but evidently not. The Lancer, not helped by spinning in circles and thereby interrupting the missile launches, was struck by a PL-15 and badly damaged, while the other Flanker shot down a Triton recon drone. Miraculously, the bomber managed to get clear, bring her damage under control, turn and loose her remaining 14 missiles and then RTB.

Meanwhile, the other three Raptors reached their patrol area and proceeded to make a total hash of attacking the Cub which, in a rare and welcome stroke of good fortune, chose that moment to RTB with no replacement yet in evidence. The three SSNs kept as deep as possible and waited.

22:00Z: Both sets of AGM-158s sailed past the Liaoning group without locking-on. Basically, they were incapable of hitting a moving target (I could find no mechanism for steering them once fired). Pathetic!!. The enemy wasted a lot of SAMs and A2A missiles on them.

The almost as hopeless F-22s duelled with arriving CAP, losing one of their number for two Flankers.

While I wasn’t looking, a Flanker snuck-up on and destroyed an F-35 that I had waiting for the replacement Cub. I reacted in time for my other Lightnings to destroy two more Flankers that were trying to penetrate to our tankers and Japanese-based P-1s.

23:00Z: As I concentrated on the SSNs, the AI took advantage and destroyed another F-22 (en route to refuel from the Japanese-based tankers) and one of the P-1s in reserve near Taiwan.

USS Hawaii waited until the Liaoning was within 14nm, then let fly with her load of torpedoes. A Luyang DDG and Jiangkai FFG interposed and were sunk (no VP) and the carrier was struck multiple times and brought to a dead stop.

Belatedly, the Chinese launched their pop-up ASW choppers and sonobuoys began to appear. The replacement Cub chose this moment to arrive for good measure. All too late, as USS Key West closed and obliterated the Liaoning. This scored 500VP and the scenario ended in a Triumph. I let the clock run a bit, but the surplus torpedoes found no victims.

Our side lost 10 fighters, two patrol planes and a UAV.

China lost the carrier, a DDG, FFG, 46 fighters and 5 choppers.

Overall, this is a challenging scenario in many ways and the SSN attack seems to me to be the only feasible way to win. Other strategies discussed in the Forum may have worked when they were trialled, but will not do so the way the game is now (unless you are very lucky or know things I don’t).

The next one is a massive affair which potentially runs to 6 days of game time. Not sure I’m looking forward to that kind of sustained effort and I do seem to be playing lots of long-duration scenarios lately. First, though, it will be back to the NFZ set and the Nordkapp.

[FrangibleCover]

It is very difficult for the Japanese and Korean subs to intercept the Liaoning without travelling at reckless speeds and depleting their batteries, while their torpedoes have a range of just 5nm and their Harpoons are far too few to penetrate the Chinese SAM and fighter defences.

Wondering about this, I loaded the scenario up in the editor, turned on God's Eye and tried to make the intercepts with full information. Even travelling at reckless speeds and depleting the batteries, Ryu Gwansun and Kenryu simply cannot make the intercept. Ryu Gwansun trying would also result in it running slap into a Chinese SS, which is very bad for its survivability. Son Won-Il, by running the battery and AIP simultaneously and by almost entirely depleting the battery, could maybe possibly have made it into kinematic torpedo range, although the Chinese CVBG has plenty of sea room to run away from the relatively puny South Korean White Shark torps. In the end I couldn't get a sonar detection on them and wasn't using any air assets since it was just a test, so I chucked a couple of ineffectual Harpoons in and dodged the Frelons. I'm an inexperienced sub handler, but I'd be interested to know if anyone else can do any better with the SSKs. I think it's possible if you can safely run the Son Won-Il at full speed while snorting, but that's a very risky play.

[Gunner98]

Although I did not design this one, I can throw in a comment on why I sometimes put SSKs (and sometimes other units) into the mix where they may not have a chance to impact the main fight:

1. As a distraction to give the player something else to consider - makes the player wonder if there is actually a purpose i.e. an opposing SSK or perhaps a transiting SSN for it to detect.
2. As a sensor platform, on the off chance that either sonar or ESM can pick up targets
3. As a security blanket for the player, if an SSK is there, perhaps there are no lurking SSGN or SSNs - or if there are I can detect them if they launch or sprint
4. For completeness, if the player can see the unit they are less likely to ask 'why haven't I got ...'

It's been years since I played this scenario, so really don't know. However there may well be a good reason they are in the mix beside running at flank to chase the carrier.

Just a couple thoughts

[FrangibleCover]

Although I did not design this one, I can throw in a comment on why I sometimes put SSKs (and sometimes other units) into the mix where they may not have a chance to impact the main fight:

1. As a distraction to give the player something else to consider - makes the player wonder if there is actually a purpose i.e. an opposing SSK or perhaps a transiting SSN for it to detect.
2. As a sensor platform, on the off chance that either sonar or ESM can pick up targets
3. As a security blanket for the player, if an SSK is there, perhaps there are no lurking SSGN or SSNs - or if there are I can detect them if they launch or sprint
4. For completeness, if the player can see the unit they are less likely to ask 'why haven't I got ...'

It's been years since I played this scenario, so really don't know. However there may well be a good reason they are in the mix beside running at flank to chase the carrier.

Just a couple thoughts

I think this is a useful perspective, and the locations of the SSKs make sense if you look at where South Korean and Japanese SSKs 'ought' to be (off the coast of each respective country). The South Korean ones can definitely act as ESM picquets, but it's a dodgy business with how close they are to China and how far they are from support, and it would be exceptionally difficult to actually act on that intelligence. I think from their positioning and from the briefing they are meant to attempt attacks on the carrier group (the point of JTF Wahoo being specifically to strike the carrier group), but they may just be intended as early game distractions, something else to do while you try to whittle down the Liaoning's air group.

In some ways it seems a bit odd that they can't make the intercept, in another way it makes perfect sense that you aren't given an asset that can just solve the scenario in the first six hours of the three day run time without any of your other assets taking part.

[BDukes]

Although I did not design this one, I can throw in a comment on why I sometimes put SSKs (and sometimes other units) into the mix where they may not have a chance to impact the main fight:

1. As a distraction to give the player something else to consider - makes the player wonder if there is actually a purpose i.e. an opposing SSK or perhaps a transiting SSN for it to detect.
2. As a sensor platform, on the off chance that either sonar or ESM can pick up targets
3. As a security blanket for the player, if an SSK is there, perhaps there are no lurking SSGN or SSNs - or if there are I can detect them if they launch or sprint
4. For completeness, if the player can see the unit they are less likely to ask 'why haven't I got ...'

It's been years since I played this scenario, so really don't know. However there may well be a good reason they are in the mix beside running at flank to chase the carrier.

Just a couple thoughts

I honestly don't remember why I did it, but these are great reasons. I'll hang my hat here