Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective)

[GloriousRuse]

I’ve made a few cavalry corps (look in the SE corner of T30 Kaluga). Many of those are, by dint of attachments, cav-mech groups with the base cavalry corps getting tank brigades attached for punch.

There’s three ways to build them: put three on map divisions together and press the Build Up button, build them out of the SR, or build from scratch. The last is prohibitively AP expensive in ‘41...

But as an expanded answer, why haven’t you been seeing them front and center? Because they are useful, but not winter panzers. A cav corps carries the power of maybe a strong rifle division, sometimes less, and really do need a fair amount of attached brigades to amount to much. Otherwise it’s best to imagine them as cav divisions that can actually fight. They also seem to take proportionally higher losses when committed...

If you’re coming here from WITE1, you won’t be creating cavalry doom stacks that tear through the German lines as you might recall from that game. Break a real line or taking a hard point is better done with the infantry...the cavalry corps really add a bit of pursuit mobility and the ability to keep pressure on more than they do assault power. You can also use them in reserve to add a nice range of attack capability or help guard against counter attacks. By and large I find that they are either useful behind fronts where I can expect constant mobility shoving the Germans, or in less dense portions of the theater where they can rapidly deploy to attack or defend at the right place. When the lines get thick, strong infantry formations with plenty of support are the better answer in my opinion.

[erikbengtsson]

Although I do own WitE, I never played it much. My Gary Grigsby moment was as a teenager in the early 90's, playing "Second Front". I still miss divisions not having their individual regiments displayed. Loved how you could replace the tanks of each regiment individually.

Anyway, I have started playing this one now. I guess it is an improvement over SF, after all. Thank you for your answer, and looking forward to more AAR updates!

[GloriousRuse]

T31

Well, the blizzards have abated for now, and looking at the weather forecast they're unlikely to pick up next week either. I put in a few attacks I really shouldn't have; you can get itchy with attacking momentum and I definitely fell prey to that. I should know better, especially with just the snow...but foibles. I can console myself with the knowledge that Mars wasn't a great idea either, at least until considering the general opinion on the competence of then Russian command at that point. The one upside is those attacks generally broke down strong and ready units. (high CV)




Other than that a quiet week of gobbling up abandoned territory, including seizing Kursk and Orel. I'm happy to pick up those cities this early, but in a way I was hoping Bobo would stand and try to hold them. I was confident if he did that I could really put the boot in on those armies and create a crisis by late February that would see him needing to derail early stages of March-April offensive force allocation to cover the hole and lock him in to a known axis. As it is our positions are now a bit reversed - he has fallen back on a strong logistics base at Bryansk, and my carefully pre-laid rail and depot net really can't go that far without diverting NKPS effort from the main goal of keeping Moscow safe. At least PG1 keeps spreading west to cover the gaps.

Time for a bit of long range pontification on all of this. Besides raw forces available, my two quick references for German offensive potential are AFVs and trucks. Their infantry is dangerous, but lacks the explosive power to really devastate the red army or crash through the vast distances needed for most objectives in '42. (Caveat: we're playing with a mostly unspoken agreement not to try to break the game. I'm not airdropping suicide BDEs onto key rail lines or launching invasions on Odessa as if German naval forces didn't exist, and neither of us appears to be abusing temporary motorization. As always, I highly recommend that if you want to enjoy WitE2 HvH you should find an opponent who generally matches you in "behave reasonably historically" vs. "let me see if I can find exciting new ways to break the engine" spectrum - a game is at least half a year and maybe two or three, so getting that feel early is worth your time)



So, where do we stand? Lets start with trucks. These are generally a Balkan War resource for the Germans, in a state of continual decline from kick off onwards. By '42 they're producing about 3700 a week, but only 2700 or so of those can make it east thanks to other theaters burning about 1000 a week - something that will only increase as time goes on. The need for tens of thousands to keep the extended depot network running more or less negates the initial pool, so slowly but surely losses bite into the capability of the heer, particularly its ability to move fast. What's that mean for us?

86k German truck losses. Bobo is preserving his trucks probably a little better than average (N != 30 for that statement), so if the trend continues he'll be maybe 20-30k trucks short of optimal for the spring. That's more than sufficient to load his preferred PzGs into the high 40s to 50 for MPs, and secondary groupings in the high 30s to low 40s. So unless I really accelerate this trend, case blue is going to be pretty dynamic. Unfortunately for me, I don't really see a way to change the trend line against a player of Bobo's caliber - he's not going to let me catch and destroy motorized and panzer elements in the heavy snow.

AFVs are a happier report. Right now the Germans are building somewhere between 100-110 proper tanks a week, and maybe 40 or so various other AFVs. Some of these will make it to the front the normal way, but the bulk of the reinforcements will be coming via their replacement battalions. That is going to give Bobo the ability to essentially reinforce whichever panzer formations he wants for Case Blue, or if he's in good shape to really weight an extended drive. I can't stop the first, but I can try to make sure he really has to pick his favorites rather than being strong everywhere. With that in mind, 4300 AFV losses is a favorable outcome so far, as losses are close to outstripping production before other theaters get their cut. Case blue at this rate is going to have to pick where it goes heavy, which makes for a spring that is easier to assess and respond to operationally.

Which brings me to the final point for the turn...if you are only playing '41 smash and grab, you're missing out on the real beauty of the game. Before t10 its mostly tactical and technical, by t17 you're starting to make choices, and by the end of winter the game has really morphed into an operational-strategic game that happens to have tactics in it. The really joy is you're still executing at that lower level, so you can see how the span of time (particularly in slower games) leads to the sort of grand sweeping movements where the immediate decisions have to be subordinated to long term ones, or really having to decide if you're willing to cash the long term for a near term opportunity.

[56ajax]

Can you advise me of how many armament points you have in the pool?

[GloriousRuse]

On T31, 2.34M armaments in the pool at the end of the turn.

In terms of practicality, that really doesn't mean much to me. If I ever took sufficient losses where raw arms supply was what prevented re-constitution, I'd have lost the war already. To keep up with what the industrial base can supply you'd need to basically re-enact June-July '41 in perpetuity. The real constraint is my limited production lines of heavy weaponry - artillery, heavier ATGs, heavy AA, and the like. An arms point is not a universal weapons currency ala WitE1, so once you cross the initial strain of replacing those opening million casualties in a couple weeks, they aren't really an issue. They don't limit me, nor do they give me any additional options or capability. They're mostly just an interim step in the production model.

[56ajax]

ORIGINAL: GloriousRuse

On T31, 2.34M armaments in the pool at the end of the turn.

In terms of practicality, that really doesn't mean much to me. If I ever took sufficient losses where raw arms supply was what prevented re-constitution, I'd have lost the war already. To keep up with what the industrial base can supply you'd need to basically re-enact June-July '41 in perpetuity. The real constraint is my limited production lines of heavy weaponry - artillery, heavier ATGs, heavy AA, and the like. An arms point is not a universal weapons currency ala WitE1, so once you cross the initial strain of replacing those opening million casualties in a couple weeks, they aren't really an issue. They don't limit me, nor do they give me any additional options or capability. They're mostly just an interim step in the production model.

Thanks for that. In my game as the Soviets vs the AI I am adding 100,000 armament points to the pool per turn and will never run out. In the old game you had to dial down your TOEs until the pool built up, but not this game. I totally agree about your comments re June-July. In fact armament points seem totally irrelevant so I am not sure why they are included in the game; or something that should be consuming Armament Points in the game, isnt.

[GloriousRuse]

I'm pretty sure arms points are an interim step in the overall industrial model, and are hard coded into a lot of that stuff floating around between factories. In terms of needing to dial down TOEs, I think given my end strength is roughly historical here the manpower is right, and the real constraints for the early war Red Army are also being historically shown: getting enough heavy weapons to the front, so overall the system is working to reflect history.

[GloriousRuse]

T32

Well, in a pleasant set of circumstances, my weathermen were completely wrong and a blizzard came howling through this week. Wasn't quite positioned to take the best advantage of it - too many units sent back to recover - but still, an unexpected opportunity.

Alas that this does not particularly help our situation near Leningrad. A small, and ultimately inconsequential, bright point as a weak German division is evicted from the gates of Osinovets.



Elsewhere, being caught in a recovery posture means this can't be a decisive maneveur week, so instead I decide to focus on breaking down certain German formations that should start cascading issues by late February-March.

It has to be said, this is not what we would call inexpensive...





But given the blizzards are expected to continue, turning strong pieces to weak pieces can have a lasting effect on how the rest of the winter plays out. So, Urrah!

With that being said, we do have some success further south. I'm not sure if these units are weak because the German supply net is hurting, or because they've diverted as much manpower as they can to other fronts, but I'm happy to see routs.

[FoilingYourPlan]

What can I do on with the ground force with extra more VP?

[GloriousRuse]

I'm having trouble understanding the question. Could you rephrase it please?

[FoilingYourPlan]

For example if I'm very incompetent German player and stucked at pre-war border at T16.So no VP, will there be any punishment event that affect me?

[loki100]

yes, if you don't meet the axis high water mark target for Jan 42 then you automatically lose.

[FoilingYourPlan]

I'm confused about how supply works in WiTE2 (another refugee from Paradox). Supposedly I pocket Stalinrad, and Soviet player left a supply depot in Stalinrad to make a stand, what happened next?

[loki100]

rather than fill up the AAR, there is a useful thread here:

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4993098

suggest reading 30.3 of the manual for a discussion of the principles rather than the actual mechanics

the rules in 25.9.2 (isolation) and the option in 25.9.3 in combination answer your exact question

[GloriousRuse]

T33

The fall of Leningrad. Unfortunate, but by this point inevitable. The fortress itself only had 50k men in it by the end - I started evacuating forces out of the fortress as soon as it became clear the city was going to be doomed to isolation in a few months - so that's a silver lining. I obviously would rather not have lost the city at all, but if you have to buy something for 50k men, an entire season of a panzergruppe's time ranks up there.

In a fit of vengeance many of those evacuated forces hit weak Germans along the northern front.



Admittedly, not all of them worked out that way. The smaller artillery ammo counts for secondary fronts can lead to miscalculations...



And per tradition, with the blizzard raging I unleash my panzer assassins...which are, at this point in the war, mostly just men with more men behind them until we can overrun a maintenance yard. (Fun historical aside, given the German tendency to recover, repair, and rebuild lost tanks, often their highest formal/recorded losses happened exactly when situations like this would occur, as that was a point where the AFV had to be written off).

More importantly the third and final phase of Temny Lesse begins as we enter the sector of the map where the operation got it's name sake. Granted its "heavy woods" and not "dark forest", but the army in front of Vyazma woods is now midway through its cascading collapse that hopefully will lead to a good position at the end of March. I'm pretty sure the Germans are just about out of strategic reserves to send here...



Down south, it's important to support the center drive strategically and make sure Bobo doesn't re-allocate. A series of attacks is sent in to bash axis allies and drive home the message that pain is waiting if the German units redeploy somewhere else.



And, while of course they're arch-imperialist capitalists who will be buried by history, it's nice to see these guys showing up:

[Beethoven1]

What is the reason for thinking he would want to redeploy troops from the south elsewhere? Is it that there is normally less blizzard in the south or something like that?

[GloriousRuse]

We’ve added a lot of effective frontage for the Germans to cover this winter. Either by the expansion of the front out near Kursk-Orel, the resulting L between AGS and AGC, real threats prohibiting regimental defenses in many places in AGN, and in some cases divisions just being pounded to the point where they need to be used in twos and threes.

On top of that, PG/PAs 2 and 3 and their supporting infantry have been taking a beating and the armies near Kursk-Bryansk were badly battered (and seem to have triggered some reserves to prevent further collapse). I think that without fresh units pouring in, more and more of AGC is going to be bleeding strength to the point where resistance becomes increasingly difficult. I don’t want new Germans coming in period, so when I see allied units holding ground and possibly freeing up German units...

[Beethoven1]

How much have you used your air in winter, and do you think it is worth using air to support the winter offensive if you take higher operational losses in bad weather?

[GloriousRuse]

Almost none. Once or twice I had some fighters and GS ready to sortie during normal snowfall periods to make sure counterattacking wouldn’t be a walk in the park; these generally didn’t achieve much. On the offense, almost never - my optimal attacking periods were under the cover of blizzards where air doesn’t just take losses, it is greatly reduced in effectiveness. Maybe if I’d pulled some mass stuff forward during “snow” weeks, but by and large most of the VVS went to the rear for training and modernization, and to allow me to build up some aircraft stocks so my first mistakes or big commitments don’t leave me back in biplane land

[shermanny]

Going from history and from my experience in a playtest match, the Germans are likely to recover enough to mount a 1942 summer offensive. They don't win even if they take Moscow in 1942, but they can win by taking Stalingrad and Baku. So as the Soviets, it's a good idea to prepare to defend the South. It's particularly bad to lose Rostov early, because it's a supply chokepoint while you have it and if/when it falls, they get Krasnodar and a chance at Grozny and then it becomes difficult to reinforce and resupply Baku.

So the key would seem to be to hold Rostov firmly, not allow easy penetration between Rostov and Voronezh, and if necessary, give ground further north.