Initial Axis diplomacy focus - opinions

[hellraiser1973]

Spain vs Iraq?

1. Spain - a lot of players tend to consider Spain paramount - more cash, more troops (and good troops that is). The cons are: the Allies are likely to counter diplo you and very likely to defend Casablanca If you try to force the spanish joining DE.

2. Iraq - you need only one hit (even 4%) to cancel the convoy to UK - that is 70 mpps, a LOT. If more hits are scored and Iraq leans towards Axis more, I think the iraqi coup will not happen, the uk will be denied those units that land in Basra to take Iraq. The mpp shortage creates difficulties for the UK to defend north africa, for example. Or invest heavily into techs.

Even without Spain, Germany can go 1200+mpps with some IT tech and Gibraltar can be captured using bombers and a paradrop from the algerian coast (you get algeria around the time US joins the war so as to not unnecessarily bump american readiness). Plus if you really need the spanish cash, you can march a few tanks into Madrid

What are you guys thinking? Is the Iraqi diplo option likely to outweigh getting Spain to join Axis?

[Sugar]

If the coup doesn`t happen, the only effect is denying the convoy, but no benefit unless the joining. By placing any unit near Mersa Matruh, you're getting both effects without any diplo, and the Bazra-Corps isn`t worth much in its own. Gibraltar stays a strategical goal anyway and will probably defended in any case, and there's no way to defend Bagdad with a single garrison

The probability to get Iraq the long way via diplo is questionable, any diplo action will be countered anyway, and you're gonna need 2-3 more diplo hits, while reaching 60% leaning in Spain still leaves the opportunity for the DE in case you're not getting any further.

An alternative would be Turkey, with troops nearly as good as the spanish and the rising of all ressources after establishing the railway connection to Berlin (but Turkey can be occupied with a few troops within 1-2 turns also, and their army lacks the tac. bomber).

Spain stays the first choice by far with their pro Axis leaning. A diplo surprise doesn't last longer than until the first hit.

[hellraiser1973]

Oh, sry if i may not get it right - placing units near Marsa Matruh actually cancels the convoy (i mean Iraq goes more pro axis right? )? didn't know that - if this is true, then indeed the incentive is less for diploing Iraq.

True getting iraq via diplo is not the goal here, only the convoy denying was.

[hellraiser1973]

@Sugar - care to enlighten me about this matruh stufF? I tested it in 40 by moving an italian army inside matruh and nothing happens. Maybe i am missing something here.

Anyway, disrupting the convoy from 39 or early 40 via diplomacy is nothing to scoff at. The trick being that the allies even if they notice your diplo spending, they would rather assume you went after Spain.

[Sugar]

Sorry, can't help you with the belonging DE, deinstalled the game, but there's a chapter in the manual containing all the DEs, it's a brit. one. Can't remember the exact preconditions, but after 1 or more units approach Mersa Matruh (or 3 hexes near El Alamein?), the Brits are asked to oppose economic sanctions on Iraq, followed by the iraqi coup and the belonging german DE.

I'm pretty sure you already noticed these events in some way or another, happens in every game afaik.

[PvtBenjamin]

ORIGINAL: hellraiser1973

Spain vs Iraq?

1. Spain - a lot of players tend to consider Spain paramount - more cash, more troops (and good troops that is). The cons are: the Allies are likely to counter diplo you and very likely to defend Casablanca If you try to force the spanish joining DE.

2. Iraq - you need only one hit (even 4%) to cancel the convoy to UK - that is 70 mpps, a LOT. If more hits are scored and Iraq leans towards Axis more, I think the iraqi coup will not happen, the uk will be denied those units that land in Basra to take Iraq. The mpp shortage creates difficulties for the UK to defend north africa, for example. Or invest heavily into techs.

Even without Spain, Germany can go 1200+mpps with some IT tech and Gibraltar can be captured using bombers and a paradrop from the algerian coast (you get algeria around the time US joins the war so as to not unnecessarily bump american readiness). Plus if you really need the spanish cash, you can march a few tanks into Madrid

What are you guys thinking? Is the Iraqi diplo option likely to outweigh getting Spain to join Axis?

I don't think the question is Spain or Iraq but do I invest the non-Spanish diplo in Iraq.

Spain is an imperative investment on both sides.

Basics: Spain starts +12%, Allies at full investment have +10% chance end of '39 - Italy enters (May/June '40), Axis +15% chance from when Italy enters until US enters (12/41).

Spain +20% Axis- Axis gets Wolfram 5 MPP's/turn (no biggie)

Spain +25% Axis (25%- I think) Axis get 2 Spanish ports to re-supply. There is your sub supply.

Spain +60% Axis DE 603

There is a remote possibility Spain will enter with Axis via just diplomacy, much higher with successful Sealion/Med.

So the question is do I invest in Iraq or Turkey/ Sweden /Saudi? The economics probably work in Iraq but you are possibly allowing the Allies to move Turkey or Sweden towards Allies which isn't good. You need to keep Turkey/Sweden as far as possible towards Axis until the US enters when diplomacy swings significantly towards Allies.

My thoughts.

[hellraiser1973]

Hey , thanks for the inputs guys.

@ Sugar - yeah, I know that event but as far as I remember it occurs in 1941.

@PvtBenjamin - ofc i am well aware Spain would be best for the Axis.

All I was trying to discuss here was if there was an easiest option to win the early mpp war. I mean ok, we go for Spain but what if we get unlucky? Do we have other options? We go to Algeria with weaker bombers higher operating costs than in 1.15 to force the DE. All the mpp wasted for that - isn't it better to move slightly Iraq towards Axis and deny 70mpp per turn to the UK? And we can do it fairly quickly, even 1939 with a moderate amount of luck. I would assume UK will have a hard time defending north africa for example. If you also pull off some decent raiding or blocking the canadian port - I mean you can really starve the UK from the get go.

[hellraiser1973]

Btw Turkey would be awesome as well. But it starts out at zero leaning, you got some triggers - Cairo (up to 25% if i recall correctly), Sevastopol (up to 10%) but Allies have also a very good trigger - if they see you go for Turkey, they could invade Rhodes and the impact on Turkey leaning is severe. All in all, you might need even more luck than with Spain.

[PvtBenjamin]

ORIGINAL: hellraiser1973

All I was trying to discuss here was if there was an easiest option to win the early mpp war. I mean ok, we go for Spain but what if we get unlucky? Do we have other options? We go to Algeria with weaker bombers higher operating costs than in 1.15 to force the DE. All the mpp wasted for that - isn't it better to move slightly Iraq towards Axis and deny 70mpp per turn to the UK? And we can do it fairly quickly, even 1939 with a moderate amount of luck. I would assume UK will have a hard time defending north africa for example. If you also pull off some decent raiding or blocking the canadian port - I mean you can really starve the UK from the get go.

My point was there are also benefits to having Spain lean Axis and its quite easy to accomplish. So the question isn't Spain or Iraq its NON Spain diplo or Iraq. The economics of Iraq diplo seem compelling but your success will probably be short lived and your Iraq investment may be allowing Sweden or Turkey move against you.

One German strategy is to invest the 100 points (& 50 the next) on the first turn on Spain. DE 603 (Algeria) you mention requires Spain +60% Axis and probably doesn't make sense until the US is about to enter. DE 603 right before US entry probably does make sense. You'll need to block Casablanca also.

I have never had the Axis take Turkey via Diplo not only does it start at zero but there are no chit limitations. I have had Axis opponents at 70% the US enters and its over. I'll give up Spain to keep Turkey every time.

Although Turkey is bountiful in MPP's its supply makes it very difficult to defend as Allies against a skilled played. The Axis supply is far superior. Most skilled Axis players will DOW Turkey if they are close to entering via diplo. So the ports are gone and the Axis air (better supply) will chew up the Allies air. Its hard for Axis to take all of Turkey but can capture it. Then both sides battle it out in the middle of Turkey with crappy supply.