The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Keeping track of Japan's mobile and powerful asset is always important, but especially so now for two reasons. The second reason is knowing whether KB might make things complicated around Formosa. The first I can't disclose until later - perhaps several weeks from now - but it's critical.

I am going to guess why. Let you know how that works out later ;]

[Lowpe]

If John is leaving his carriers with good dl in the same spot for days on end he is violating every rule.[&:]

[BBfanboy]

So far it looks like John has been using his CVs to cover evacuations of troops from the DEI to reinforce Indochina. Why not the same with Babeldaob?

[Canoerebel]

9/7/44

Peep Show II: Major Allied attack tomorrow, as Allied army will cross river into a heavily-reinforced Kagi.

China: I think my read of the situation in China is correct - 32nd Div. should be able to make the coast along the preferred route. John has expended a lot of energy in hopes of trapping the unit but hasn't succeeded to this point. Today's maneuvering didn't help him.

[Canoerebel]

9/7/44

KB & The DEI: John's carriers are moving east for reasons unknown...and for reasons I'll leave unstated, this is causing a great disturbance in the force.

[Canoerebel]

9/08/44

Battle of Kagi: Allied shock attack simply destroys the sizeable enemy garrison - including two divisions and four brigades. Losses are immense for the Japanese army.

Significantly, the two IJA divisions here had been tasked with the defense of Takao until John moved them to Kagi the day before yesterday. That leaves Takao with one division (15th) and possibly a mixed brigade. Takao shouldn't stand a chance.

There's no question now what the outcome will be in Formosa.

John only sent the combat report and movie, so I don't have the actual turn yet. I'll post more later tonight or tomorrow, whenever John sends the turn. I don't think he'll be in a big hurry to do so. He may be in shock.

[Canoerebel]

9/8/44

Coastal China Maneuvering Engagement: John's stack attacks again at decent odds, but a US tank unit arrived, opening the SW hexside. I think 32nd Div. will cross the hexside tomorrow, but I won't know for certain until I have the turn file from John and can see what's where and how many miles 32nd Div. has accumulated in it's move to the SW.

[BBfanboy]

You had TDs and Tanks at Kagi, and I don't see any anti-tank units in his OOB. No wonder his troops broke and were routed. Open terrain is your friend!

[Canoerebel]

[Canoerebel]

9/8/44

Strategic Map: The Empire is nearly divided, but the wall of separation has holes. When Death Star is committed in places like Formosa, John can move through to and fro via the Celebes Sea region.

What Happens Next: It may take three or four weeks, but the decision in Formosa shouldn't be in question any more.

What happens after Formosa? I've said before that the Allies will transition from a purely military focus to a hybrid military/gaming focus. Harvesting victory points will become a priority equal to - and sometimes driving - military considerations.

In a week or less, I'll finally initiate a regular strategic bombing campaign. The Formosa airfields have the supply and the security to permit this.

John may expect me to come for the Home Islands now, but I'm looking at a China campaign via land and an amphibious campaign (with Death Star) targeting high value targets in the DEI - Singers, Palembang, Balikpapan, Soerabaja, etc.

These things aren't written in stone, but that's been the working plan for more than a year.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/8/44

Strategic Map: The Empire is nearly divided, but the wall of separation has holes. When Death Star is committed in places like Formosa, John can move through to and fro via the Celebes Sea region.

That is one major green arrow into the heart of the Japanese position. Nicely done.

What Happens Next: It may take three or four weeks, but the decision in Formosa shouldn't be in question any more.

What happens after Formosa? I've said before that the Allies will transition from a purely military focus to a hybrid military/gaming focus. Harvesting victory points will become a priority equal to - and sometimes driving - military considerations.

In a week or less, I'll finally initiate a regular strategic bombing campaign. The Formosa airfields have the supply and the security to permit this.

Consider large manpower raids at night on Osaka and Tokyo to start off. You'll be surprised how long these burn. Especially if he's not stacked AA and NF in those bases. Also, hitting individual big airframe plants at places that will be less defended, like Gifu and Maebashi will yield very good results usually.

Both yokohama and Hiroshima/Kure have silly numbers of 12.7cm DP guns that are some of the best the Japanese have. Be wary of those bases compared to other good industrial targets. Hitting large airfields used for training is also not a bad way to get some points and frustrate your opponent. You'll be in range of Manchuria which has some great potential targets of all kinds, especially Mukden, Anshan and Harbin.

This is a great time to start really hitting the HI and taking out his favourite toys. [;)]

John may expect me to come for the Home Islands now, but I'm looking at a China campaign via land and an amphibious campaign (with Death Star) targeting high value targets in the DEI - Singers, Palembang, Balikpapan, Soerabaja, etc.

These things aren't written in stone, but that's been the working plan for more than a year.

It'd be fun to surprisingly "encircle" the KB down there. He's been keeping it again visible and in harm's way. You'll gain a lot of points either way, if he uses it or if he tries to flee and leaves the area open for amphibious ops.

Still following happily! A fun game to have watched all these years![&o]

[JohnDillworth]

so roughly 1,200 squads destroyed against your 10. That is staggering

[JeffroK]

Late war Allied firepower, forget AV comparisons.

I'm thinking Chosen might be a nice place to visit.

[MakeeLearn]

That SigIntelReport looks bad, been hanging around the troops from Georgia?

[paullus99]

Any chance John had of slowing you down on Formosa evaporated with those troop losses - that is a significant defeat for him.

[Canoerebel]

John still has 155k troops on Formosa, but Kagi was so bad that I think he may have switched from reinforcing (by air transport) to withdrawing (by air and fast transport).

A page or two back, crsutton explained why he often/usually bypasses Formosa. Originally, Formosa didn't figure into my plans. The plan was Luzon then coastal China then points north. Many things factored into my change of mind, which took place perhaps six months ago. Formosa has excellent airfields in proximity to Japan. Taking it would clean up a key part of my LOC. And John was reinforcing an island with open terrain close to Luzon's airfields. I was pretty sure that the 185k enemy troops on Formosa wore signs saying "Victims. Come Get Us." unless John committed KB and fought hard enough to complicate what seemed like a straightforward mathematical calculation.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/08/44

Battle of Kagi: Allied shock attack simply destroys the sizeable enemy garrison - including two divisions and four brigades. Losses are immense for the Japanese army.

Significantly, the two IJA divisions here had been tasked with the defense of Takao until John moved them to Kagi the day before yesterday. That leaves Takao with one division (15th) and possibly a mixed brigade. Takao shouldn't stand a chance.

There's no question now what the outcome will be in Formosa.

John only sent the combat report and movie, so I don't have the actual turn yet. I'll post more later tonight or tomorrow, whenever John sends the turn. I don't think he'll be in a big hurry to do so. He may be in shock.

It is the tanks. Japanese units have little or no AT defense so the tanks really make a big difference. God help them if the terrain is open terrain.

[MakeeLearn]

After taking Formosa, isn't anything other than Japan "just fondling the goat"? Playing the Japan tune may be the only way to get KB to dance with you.

[Canoerebel]

From a military standpoint, a good argument can be made that attending to northern China and/or Korea makes as much sense (maybe more) than Japan at this point in the game.

From a gaming standpoint, the time has come for victory points to weigh heavily in every decision - not overriding military strategy but complementing it and sometimes directing it. From a VP standpoint it makes sense to attend to the DEI even while attending to China and/or Korea and while ramping up strategic bombing.

There is going to be a bit of a lull from the "push forward intensely" program anyhow, as logistics becomes priority one. Supply levels forward are adequate, but 75% of my ships are forward and sitting empty at Manila or with Death Star (having delivered the Formosa package). It's time to send 500 ships home and that requires security. But it's not purely security. The plan will also entail attending to some LOC issues and some important target-DEI issues.

[Canoerebel]

9/9/44

BB Ise: The day dawned with USN sub Sterlet putting three TT into Ise. The BB didn't show heavy damage - heck, she's not even blowing smoke - so I'd guess modere- to moderately-heavy damage - 40s to 60s.

Allied sub scores have been exceedingly rare the past four to six months, so this one was worth noting.

Ise has been participating in the Japanese counterinvasion of Vinh and bombardments of Haiphong.