The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

2/23/43

Battle of Sumatra: An unusually quiet day, which is good of course. The Allies stood down most fighters (I left up just enough to prevent bombers getting a freebie). John swept in numbers with the Allies coming out on top. So most of my fighters got in a day of rest. No sign of battlewagons coming up the Slot. So, if my patrols are doing their jobs, Sabang may get yet another day. No "Radio, raise command. Send main body!" announcements, though there is a "CA" reported near Georgetown. If that turns out to be the Kongos, ouch! All damage is now repaired at Sabang. Forts to 4.39. Supply at 272k. 1st Marines in blocking position to dig forts. Tomorrow, the fighters resume CAP.

Massed bombings at Langsa barely touch the airfield, and down in the hex below, barely touch 20th Indian Division. I think forts and jungle terrain will prevent bombers being effective (and I hope John doesn't know that). If the Kongos come here it will be interesting to see if the troops are roughed up.

KB jinked to the NW of Sabang, I think responding to John seeing a DD up near Ceylon. I'm skirting the periphery hoping to confuse John. If the KB uses fuel, so much the better.

Burma: John and I had similar ideas. He sent all his bombers against Cox's Bazaar, damaging the airfield but not any aircraft. The Allies hit Rangoon (minus the Hurricane sweeps I had expected) and destroyed roughly 15 aircraft on the ground. John's army continues to move into the jungle. I don't see what he hopes to accomplish here - too much jungle, too easy for the Allies to move to threated locations, for him to accomplish anything. Maybe he wants to establish a good perimeter defense.

The big thing now is to see if those IJN BBs return, whether it be tomorrow or the next day or the next.

[BBfanboy]

John's forté is the rapier thrust, not a long drawn out shield-bashing battle with maces. He seems to be unsure how to proceed and gives up if he doesn't get rapier-thrust results right away when he tries something. As you said, this dithering is helping you by slowing his attacks and using up time. Keep on grinding, Clint!

[JeffroK]

And see what can be done to kick him in the butt while he's got his teeth at your throat.

[Capt. Harlock]

And see what can be done to kick him in the butt while he's got his teeth at your throat.

Knowing the location of the KB should be worth something...

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Miller

Yes I am probably the only AE player to ever lose the entire Kongo class in one turn, you have a good memory my friend and great to see you back in the saddle!

Probably not. Good to see you, Paul. I hope all is well in your world.

I resisted from playing for about six months after my last game ended but came back for more eventually.....

[Canoerebel]

2/24/43

He had taken refuge in a cave-like opening flowing water had carved in the bank of a Republican River tributary. Holed up there for two days now, he had nursed his wounds, which looked bad and felt worse. He'd been shot, once in his right thigh and once in the right side. The bleeding had stopped, but he felt awful. The Comanchees didn't know where he was, but the wolves - or maybe they were wild dogs - did. He'd set a snare and caught a cottontail, which he cooked over a small, hot, smokeless fire of dry willow. He didn't know where the settlers were, he didn't know where the Comanchees were, and he didn't give himself a chance of making it out of this mess alive. But he couldn't very well lie down and die. So he thought. And then he thought some more. Always, he mulled over what he might do to improve his chances.

Battle of Sumatra: The Kongos return and unleash another nuclear bombardment at Sabang. The damage to the field is immense - 56 service and 86 runway, and once again the support troops are disrupted (this time to 75%). The Intel Loss Screen shows 195 Allied aircraft destroyed on the ground, but I think the 195 refers to the number of aircraft destroyed and out of operation, because the actual number destroyed looks considerably less. But the field is largely shut down, meaning Sabang is now all but defenseless against attack by air. This means the 50 Allied ships there are doomed, either from LBA or the KB, which is still posted in a blocking position NW of the port.

So in this grimmest of moments, when John has finally managed what's he's been aiming to do for months, I nevertheless feel an odd surge of confidence. How can that be? Here's why:

1. Enemy ships hit five mines - one DD took two hits, two others took single hits, and Yamato took one. (The Sabang screen confirms that the mine total dropped to 951, which matches the hits, so I don't think this is FOW.) There were two sinking sounds immediately after, so I believe John might have lost two more DDs. Yamato wasn't badly damaged, barely showing smoke during a later meeting with some PT boats. But since John unleashed the Kaigun against Sabang in late January, he's suffered mine hits to a BB, CA, two CL, and six DD. I believe the CA, both CLs, and perhaps 4 or 5 DDs went down (some of these due to contributing causes after the mine hits).

The bombardment didn't touch supply or combat troops. Sabang is strong. (And there is still no apparent imminent threat to the concentration of troops at Langsa and the hex to the south.)

2. Yamato came in escorted only by DDs. The four Kongos also had DD escorts. No signs of enemy cruisers, heavy or light. I think the Kaigun is hurting, though I could be evaluating through rose-colored glasses too much.

3. At this point, I prefer that John maintain a mid-level morale of "I think I have things in hand" as opposed to either extreme (desperate to resolve the situation or so confident of victory that he takes bold action). I'm hoping that he feels that he has things well in hand and can reduce Sumatra with a reasonable amount of time. What I don't want him to do is to invade Langsa or even Sabang. The latter poses the only possibility of a coup-de-main defeat that might wrest Sabang from Allied hands with a fortnight. The former represent a possible route to Sabang in four to six weeks. But if John is satisfied to pick off ships and plans and hammer Sabang for awhile, the timeline lengthens measurably.

4. I don't have any choice but to leave my ships at Sabang. They're either slow or damaged. The KB is sitting right there. But more importantly, I want to give John something to aim for. Something to focus on. Something to incite his "Banzaii-ness" over the next few days. If he picks off Wichita and Hawkins et al, I won't be celebrating, but I'll know it's for the good of the Republic.

5. The most important ships at Sabang are the two ACM. The longer they can remain hidden and afloat, the better the minefield will be and the more attrition to Japanese ships might occur. With 951 mines in place, I think the minefield will last a long time even once the ACMs are gone. But every day they're there is a small victory.

6. Here's where I have to guess. I think John will set his LBA to bomb port. Ships disbanded in port will be sitting ducks. Ships at anchor will be sitting ducks to aircraft set to naval strike. But my guess is that John won't think that far: that he'll think all the chicks will flee the roost, so that he'll maintain the KB as a blocking force for one more turn. So I'm going to form ships into TFs so that they'll be defended by their own AA. This might buy me another day in which the land flak units can recover some from that 75 disruption level.

7. If enemy combat ships come in, they'll find two TFs of walking wounded and all kinds of merchants.

8. I could keep my fighters in place - there are probably 100 ready to fly - but the airfield damage is so great that it's probably not worth it. So I'm moving the good planes to Ramree Island temporarily. for awhile now, the defense of Sabang is up to AA, minefields, and friction. Those may not be as weak as they seem at first blush.

By the way, I was surprised by my NavSearch PBYS not giving any warning of the approach of the Kongos. But such are the fortunes of war.

It would be fun to know what John is thinking. Is he planning a conventional campaign to reduce Sabang long term? If so, I indeed think that will take at least 60 days, more likely a good bit more, and possibly won't ever succeed. Or will he shoot the works and invade Langsa or Sabang in big numbers? That's his route to victory. He has to do that. But will he.

Meanwhile, elsewhere, the wheels are in motion. But the planning is long term and will work so much better if John is still focusing on Sumatra come May 1 or June 1. Can I nurse this thing two to three more months? I think so. Or, more optimistically, can I hold a viable lodgement in Sumatra? After a devastating nuclear bombardment that has finally closed my airfield and left Sabang defenseless (except for those aforementioned AA, mines and friction), I up the odds from 33% to 34%. I'm going to try.

[Canoerebel]

In figuring out what to do with my battered airforce at Sabang, one possibility is to disband and "send some planes and all pilots to the pools."

Anybody have any idea what the average is for "some planes"? I'm sure it's a dice roll. It probably averages 50%?

I'm trying to decide whether it's worthwile to eat the losses in order to get my out-of-commission planes out of Sabang since they're sitting ducks. Unless you guys tell me 90% of the planes are destroyed, I'll probably do it.

[BillBrown]

I think the undamaged ones go to the pool and the damaged ones are destroyed.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

I think the undamaged ones go to the pool and the damaged ones are destroyed.

+1

[bobsteele]

I think you need to stay the course here. He has to kick you out of Sabang. He can't do so easily. Yes, you will suffer dreadful losses to your airforce, but you are inflicting similarly dreadful losses to his resources, not directly, but by making him commit them. He has to build those planes, fuel those ships, run that economy on a shoestring whereas you have a hawser in comparison. Granted, your aircraft production is startleing (sp? Someone help me out here) low, but on balance, you will have the benefit of highly skilled pilots flying equal or superior airframes in the not so distant future. I think you are thinking too one dimensionally, concentrating too much on the apparent airframe numbers disparity. It's a triad, dude. You will soon have advantages of numbers and quality on land and at sea that, I think, more than make for the apparent weakness in the air, and as you have yourself said, once you have Hellcats in numbers, many equations start to refigure in your favor. Fix your stuff, and keep feeding more in as it becomes available and doesn't cut too much into peanuts one through three. He has to get you outta there, so in that sense, you have him by the balls. You don't even have to squeeze. Just stay and keep him focused, then whack him in the backside.

You are in control here, not him.

[witpqs]

It's still a balancing act, though, because CR's carriers are useless without air groups.

Not sayin' I know the right answer. It sure is an edge-of-the-seat game to watch!

[Canoerebel]

The airfield is broken, most of my aircraft are damaged, and John has vast numbers of fighters. It does no good to put up 50 or 75 fighters tomorrow if John closes the airfield via bombing. He definitely has it within his power to close the airfield tomorrow or shortly thereafter by bombing and/or bombardment. It doesn't do me any good to have 200 damaged fighters at a 100% disabled airfield, so I'm getting out what I can now. Hopefully they'll be back soon.

But this doesn't mean a general stand down. Bombing and bombardments aren't touching the ground troops in any of the key three hexes. So John has to dig in and root them out while maintaining his superiority at sea and in the air. All the while, friction continues its work in the form of mines, subs, AA and the ground troops.

I can survive for some time under the current model while John continues to bleed aircraft and ships (and we'll both be bleeding men). I'm looking forward to seeing how he approaches things.

Meanwhile, I should add this note:

Peanut 1 (60) 20/0
Peanut 2 (72) 20/0
Peanut 3 (32) 0/1

[Canoerebel]

Things are going to get pretty ugly in the next few days. The dreaded "Banzai!" toasts will be made repeatedly. John is feeling good. But I am feeling pretty good too. Here's why.

This is John's mod. Japan gets lots of extras. Some of the disparities were recognized and addressed by John (and his co-workers) later. Most significantly, Allied fighter production was ramped up considerably and Allied PPs were raised to 60 daily. When we resumed the game, John told me I would benefit from these changes (and he genuinely believed so). But the changes were not retroactive. I'm still working with the original numbers.

Yet John hasn't expanded anywhere near his usual perimeter. He hasn't touched India or Ceylon. He only has a slice of Oz at Darwin and down to Exmouth. He has New Caledonia (John always has New Caledonia) but not Suva, Pago Pago or Christmas. He doesn't have Midway. His Aleutians holdings go only as far as Cold Bay.

You guys know how aggressive John is. How is it, then, that he hasn't pushed further forward. What's he doing bogged down in Sumatra rather than engaging in his usual early war rampaging?

The main reason is that the Allies have been aggressive since the start of the war. John has spent much of the war reacting to Allied offensives. There was a push in the Aleutians in spring '42 (John reclaimed that ground). There was an invasion of the Gilberts (including Tarawa) in early June '42 (John retook those too). At the same time, the Allies invaded Ramree Island and invaded Burma in strength by land. This campaign, in particular, drew John's full attention throughout the summer and autumn months of '42, resulting in a series of sharp naval engagements that the Allies won. And then the Allies invaded Sumatra in force on November 10, 1942. And we're still going at it there as of February 24, 1943.

By being aggressive, the Allies have lost a fair number of ships. I think, though, that the Japanese have lost as much or more (especially in carriers, BBs and CAs). In the air war, John has lost 50% more than the Allies, though the disparity in the pools has really hurt me.

I have hopes that the Allies will ultimately prevail in Sumatra. If they don't, however, the Allies will have bought four or five months of time where John was focused 100% there and lost a great deal of combat ships. If he vanquishes Sumatra, he'll be able to proceed with some offensive activity (he can pick of any isolated target such as Midway, Suva, etc.) but none of the major land masses are at risk.

Even as the Sumatra campaign winds down, the Allies are looking ahead. I've lost but one carrier (a CVE) and but one fast BB (Indiana) and that was at a high cost to Japan (I think).

So win or lose in Sumatra, I'll be in good shape going forward.

That thought will help me through the "Banzais!" of the next few days or weeks.

[KenchiSulla]

In the end, the way to hurt the Japanese is take out shipping and prevent expansion as far as possible.. You sir, are doing both

[JocMeister]

Even if the worst thing happens and he throws you out of Sumatra his losses are so high that AV is impossible.

So you will still win. Eventually. It will only take a little longer. [:)]

PS. How many AA units do you have at Sabang?

[Canoerebel]

2/25/43

Dogs. Wild dogs. That's what they were. With bared fangs and unkempt coats, they were an ugly looking pack of mongrels. And they had just taken a newly caught cottontail from one of Clint's snares.

Battle of Sumatra: The day went pretty much as predicted. But it's hard watching my unprotected "sitting ducks" get plastered. Enemy LBA and carrier air (contrary to my prediction yesterday) hit Sabang, sinking CAs Hawkins and Wichita, CL Cleveland, and some merchants. But the AA, still at 50% disruption, did their part, exacting a toll (John lost 49 aircraft to flak today and 10 to Ops, here and at Ramree Island). The flak should perform better tomorrow, if the BBs stay away and disruption decreases. The enemy attacks weren't as successful as you'd think against sitting ducks. And damage to the airfield is repairing. I've gotten about 100 fighters out of Sabang to Ceylon and Ramree. More should follow over the next few days. Supply is still at 266k. And the ground troops are still in good shape everywhere and still not facing imminent attack that I can detect.

Tomorrow, the faster Allied warships will flee Sabang. Most will head WSW in hopes of making Diego Garcia. A few will make right for the KB (Fortune is damaged and overdue for withdrawal, so she's going to Attack!).

On the day, John lost 80 aircraft. The Allies lost 8. The ACMs weren't hit. I hope they'll be last on the list. Mines are still at 951.

Lots more fighter squadrons have arrived from Oz (John forgot to shut down the sea lanes, so there've been a steady stream of TFs bringing troops and aircraft. If the Allies get an opening to reinsert aircraft (for instance, if the Kongos have to abort because of problems or sub attacks next time), the Allies will try for a surprise insertion. I think bombardment is the only efficient way John has to neuter the airfield. His bombers get too messed up by flak.

We're down to brass tacks now. John's addressed things to his liking in the air and at sea. So how does he handle the land war? I see no signs of an overland campaign (if that's his plan, he's taking his own sweet time). So I'm guessing he'll invade either Sabang or Langsa. Sabang has the mines and about 700 AV all 100% prepped with SWPac HQ (and other reinforcements that can get there in a four or five days). Langsa is even stronger (though no mines).

So which will it be?

[JeffroK]

Ramree!!

Or thinking bigger:

In JIII's shoes I'd find somewhere tender and smash it hard while you are heavily concentrated on Sabang. Either slip away part of KB or use repairing/new CV to strike.

Does he have any idea of your lack of fighters??

Do high value target like Pearl or the West Coast have any fighter cover??

Even Australian ports could be a tempting target.

[Canoerebel]

I should be in good shape if John wants to go raiding, either via KB raid or deep thrust invasion. Either are possible, especially once/if he gets Sumatra wrapped up. Here's the situation:

1. The Allies are currently strongest in SEAC, both air force and ground troops. A KB raid here (Colombo, Bombay or Karachi would be the only sensible locations) is likely to give John a bloody nose. Ramree is almost invulnerable with 2x terrain and a heavy concentration of AA. It doesn't even need CAP to survive. John can invade en masse - Ceylon would be a worthwhile target for him. For reasons I won't go into, I'd love him to commit fully to an offensive campaign here. I'd gladly yield ground. I'd welcome it even at a cost. The cost to him would be high, it would take a lot of time, and he'd accomplish nothing of lasting value. I'd love to see him commit here.

2. Oz is stout but NZ is weak. Oz is the buildup area for the next Allied invasion and is flush with troops. Port raids by KB aren't a major concern. I have my ships pulled back from likely targets (Perth, Sydney, Auckland. They'll flee to map's edge if necessary. Eventually the Allied carries will shift over this way (and some of the fighter squadrons from SEAC).

3. He can move on Suva or PP or any other group of islands, perhaps even Pearl Harbor. He has the power to overwhelm at any location. Not really worth it for him to get bogged down that far from home, I'd think.

4. West Coast is very strong now. He'd risk major damage to the KB if he raids there now.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

In JIII's shoes I'd find somewhere tender and smash it hard while you are heavily concentrated on Sabang. Either slip away part of KB or use repairing/new CV to strike.

At this point any raid by the IJN with less than the whole KB would be no more effective than the Doolittle Raid as far as lasting impact. There is no use for the Allies to waste the effort preparing to counter if it interferes with planning for future offensive operations. The Allies should welcome any Japanese operations that move substantial Japanese forces great distances and to locations potentially remote from planned offensive operations.

The Japanese war effort is constrained by its economy. Profligate use of assets now will come at a terrible cost later. The Japanese need to win the Battle for Sabang. Diverting resources to less important tasks would be disastrous both militarily and economically. A carrier raid by the IJN would be Hitler level, opening a second front, foolish, and the Allies should welcome one.

[Canoerebel]

That's right on the mark.

So, I welcome any Japanese operation in which John focuses on a theater other than those I'm considering invading. I'm looking at an arc from Java to New Britain, so anything elsewhere (India, Hawaii, Alaska) would be most welcome.

The things that would disrupt me the most would be: (1) John getting to my carriers, (2) John hitting a port where I'm concentrating my merchants for future offensive action, (3) John concentrating his forces - infantry in numbers and KB - in the same theater I want to invade when the time comes.

I'm trying to convey weakness to John in India by pulling back from the front lines. I'd love nothing more than for him to come at India and Ceylon with 15 divisions and the KB, if he comes in a month and if he focuses there for three or four months or more. (I really doubt he would do something like that at this point, but I'm pointing out why it would be a welcome move.)