AllenK vs Mayhemizer III: Oil be back.

[AllenK]

S/O 39 Allied 2

France, USSR, USA, Combined; CW Naval, China Land.

CW sends 3 CV, 4 BB, 2 CA to North Sea 3-box as escorts for 2 Trans carrying a Mot each. Various escorts are sent out. Subs move from Malta to Italian Coast 3-box. Glorious and 2 CA's joins BB's from Gib in West Med 2-box.

French Trans brings Inf back from Syria to Marseille.

US shifts Nimitz and P-40 to Pearl.

North Sea available for naval combat. CW declines. Does the He 112 want a go?

[Courtenay]

ORIGINAL: AllenK

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

I don't like the abandonment of Chengchow and Tungkwan. Most of the successful Japanese attacks on China I have seen in AARs have involved heavy attacks on the Communists; giving Chengchow away makes this much easier for the Japanese. This is particular true since the Communists have made the mistake of not picking the 8th Route Army. [:)] (A mistake I make two thirds of time, of course.)

Hi Courteney,

Can't say I'm exactly chuffed about it either, especially Chengchow. The trouble is, in my relative inexperience, I can't readily see what I would trade off to mount the defence. A viable defence would take quite a few units. The Japanese, setting up second, can then simply ignore it and advance elsewhere. A token defence, unless the Japanese are unlucky with their die roll, simply presents them their first kills in addition to the city.

Advice for future games appreciated.

The point is not to make a viable defense of Chengchow. As you note, you don't have enough units to do that and to do everything else the Nationalists have to do. The point is to slow the Japanese down, before they sweep the Communists off the map. While the Nationalists do not have enough units to hold Chengchow for a long time, they do, however, have enough units to put a couple of good, cheap units (A big GAR and the Chungking MIL work well) in Chengchow. Either the Japanese make a risky attack, or they have to spend a lot of S/O impulses dealing with these units, or they ignore them, and don't attack in the north.

As the Japanese, I am not brave enough to make a risky attack on impulse one. Your opponent may differ, and if he gets lucky, well, you have a problem. Even if he gets lucky, that luck was spend on something you can afford to lose, rather than an early attack on the Communists, which might have gone a long way to driving them off the map. If he gets average luck, and does not take the city, he has a problem. In practice, certainly if I am your opponent, you should hold Chengchow for several impulses. These are S/O impulses where the Japanese are not attacking the Communists. If they Communists can get through S/O, the weather should help them the next two turns, and after that they should have gotten some reinforcements, and be able to actually defend themselves.

[Courtenay]

By my count, the Axis just made 19 die rolls, not one of which was lower than a 4. .7^19 = .00114, or less than 1 chance in 875.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

No combat in North Sea thank you.

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

By my count, the Axis just made 19 die rolls, not one of which was lower than a 4. .7^19 = .00114, or less than 1 chance in 875.

Hum.

Rolling 4 or less is a 6% occurence on 2d10. The chance of rolling that 19 times is (1-0.06)^19=30%
That's fairly standard.

[AllenK]

Hi Courteney,

Thanks for the tips on Nationalist set-up. I had forgotten the time element and to allow for reinforcements arriving. Good lessons for next time around although with Mayhemizer keenly focussed and hungry for revenge I suspect this may be a good while away yet.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

ORIGINAL: yvesp

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

By my count, the Axis just made 19 die rolls, not one of which was lower than a 4. .7^19 = .00114, or less than 1 chance in 875.

Hum.

Rolling 4 or less is a 6% occurence on 2d10. The chance of rolling that 19 times is (1-0.06)^19=30%
That's fairly standard.

Hi all. I think Courtenay means all rolls, including 1D10 ground strikes.

I did not realize earlier: ship overruns, US entry rolls, ground strikes and even 2D10 (even if one dice is 10) included no low numbers.

Edit: japanese strategic bombing failed on a 1 (post #29).

[AllenK]

No naval combat.

The RAF send Harrows to bomb Essen. The crews are reasonably certain the bombs landed somewhere in Germany.

[AllenK]

The French meet with more success.

[yvesp]

Mistake

[yvesp]

Mistake

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Yvesp, you might be in wrong AAR.

I'm relieved Germany that is not going to pass in this AAR [;)]

[AllenK]

US rail moves an Inf Div from east to west.

French move newly arrived Inf to the Italian border.

Polish air force flees to Latvia and is interned.

No reorgs.

On a 3, the weather is fine everywhere.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

S/O 39 Axis 3

Germany declares war on Netherlands. On a 7 US realizes that there is nothing wrong with that...

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Netherlands INF is in resource hex, both Amsterdam and Rotterdam are open. Germany goes for double invasion.

Germany and Italy combined, Japan land.

He115 fly to North Sea box 3. 12 Kriegsmarine ships joins NAV in box 3 loaded with 2x INF div. Let's hope there is no naval combat.

Italian transporter sails to Red Sea and takes INF on board.

Germany declines combat in North Sea. Do CW want to go for it?

[AllenK]

They sure do.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Do CW want to fly additional planes from UK?

[AllenK]

Hurricane to 0-box thanks.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Allied 3, Axis 2. After Allied 3 I was a bit nervous...

How do CW planes fly, fighter or bomber? Germany has NAV and fighter in combat.

[AllenK]

Gladiator as fighter, 2-2 Swordfish as fighter, other Swordfish as bomber thanks.