OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cheesesteak

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is the kind of thing that worries me. There are so many unknowns involved in recovery even when cases are not critically severe.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... 19-fatigue

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Anecdotal reports have abounded of people left with fatigue, aching muscles and difficulty concentrating. Online support groups on Facebook and Slack have sprung up, already hosting thousands of members who say they have not got better.

Speaking to the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday, Matt Hancock said it was difficult to gauge the scale of the problem. “This is a really serious problem for a minority of people who have Covid,” the health secretary said. “Some people have long-term effects that look like a post-viral fatigue syndrome.”

Scientists are only just beginning to investigate the potential causes of enduring fatigue, but say that there are likely to be a wide variety of reasons why some people face a longer road to recovery.[/font]

This is also heart-wrenching. Actor Nick Cordero dies after 90 days in hospital with Covid, at age 41. So sad.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... plications

So many unknowns. I have some dr friends who are genuinely worried, others who focus in on the "anecdotal" aspect. How is a layman to know when the pro's disagree?

Regarding mortality/case count disparities, here is a collection of tweets alleging one possible explanation. I say 'alleging' and 'possible' because anything digested from the Twitterverse should always be taken with more than one grain of salt.

https://imgur.com/gallery/nmF80ov

This is a great find. This part below seems most critical. Of course it's many isolated outbreaks with their own curves and rates, which looked at closely and regionally has a very different look than the national data compiled.

You are too kind. The United States had an opportunity to flatten the curve, as a country, and failed. What is happening today is entirely self inflicted. The States were left to fend for themselves and most choose to reopen way too soon. The results of opening too soon are blindingly obvious. It did not have to be this way but the politicians thought they were smarter than the scientists. They were not and many, many people are going to get sick that didn't have to. Some will even die. But the stock market is way up so I suppose it was worth it.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is a great find. This part below seems most critical. Of course it's many isolated outbreaks with their own curves and rates, which looked at closely and regionally has a very different look than the national data compiled.

The part that causes consternation is that areas that have successfully kept the cases down can have all their work undone by travel from areas that have not. If we want to have a free and mobile way of life we have to beat this thing everywhere. If we get our own countries down to marginal levels, it would be in our interest to help other countries that have not been able to - those in the developing world come to mind. We did it to prevent Ebola coming to us, but this is a much bigger task.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is a great find. This part below seems most critical. Of course it's many isolated outbreaks with their own curves and rates, which looked at closely and regionally has a very different look than the national data compiled.

The part that causes consternation is that areas that have successfully kept the cases down can have all their work undone by travel from areas that have not. If we want to have a free and mobile way of life we have to beat this thing everywhere. If we get our own countries down to marginal levels, it would be in our interest to help other countries that have not been able to - those in the developing world come to mind. We did it to prevent Ebola coming to us, but this is a much bigger task.

I supposed that everyone could stay at home for two or three months, just not leave for any reason.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is a great find. This part below seems most critical. Of course it's many isolated outbreaks with their own curves and rates, which looked at closely and regionally has a very different look than the national data compiled.

The part that causes consternation is that areas that have successfully kept the cases down can have all their work undone by travel from areas that have not. If we want to have a free and mobile way of life we have to beat this thing everywhere. If we get our own countries down to marginal levels, it would be in our interest to help other countries that have not been able to - those in the developing world come to mind. We did it to prevent Ebola coming to us, but this is a much bigger task.

I supposed that everyone could stay at home for two or three months, just not leave for any reason.

That would be unrealistic of course. All we need do is require masks and distancing at work and shopping for essentials, and ban social gatherings until the cases are under control. Given an infectious life cycle of about a month for a virus, that should be about as long as we need. I haven't heard of any asymptomatic carriers having it longer than a month.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

There is much in that thread that I would agree with.

But there is a massive leap from the current data to "dozens of NYCs around the country"

If you look at the NY numbers for late March/early April (referring to the 7 day averages). On 22/03 cases were at 2164. A week later they were at 6493 - cases had almost exactly tripled within a week. Over the same period of time deaths went from 28 to 216 - within a week they had gone up by c.7X (put another way deaths had doubled c. 3 times within a week).

Another way to look at it is the CFR. If we use a 7 day window, those 6493 cases on 29/03 translated to 633 deaths on 05/04 - a CFR of c.10%. If by comparison we look at the numbers in Georgia - cases seem to have started spiking on around 13/06 from a 'base' of 984. Looking at the graph for deaths there seems to be a corresponding up-tick developing around 25/06 at around 16 deaths. That would equate to a CFR of 1.5%.

A final way to look at it would be daily deaths/100k population. At the peak in NY this was at about 4.75. At the moment Florida is at about 0.2. So even if deaths 'followed' cases and doubled every week it would take about 4.5 weeks of consistent increase at that pace before getting to the equivalent of NY. California/Georgia/Texas are a little lower at 0.15/0.15/0.13 respectively. Arizona is worse off at about 0.5 (so just over 3 weeks worth of weekly doubling to reach an equivalent of NY).

I think the much bigger concern from a US perspective is what happens in October/November. I think that period will be difficult everywhere but the US will be in a uniquely difficult position as the Covid-19 'issue' has become much more politicised than it has elsewhere - a problem that could become even more acute if the situation starts getting more ugly a month or two out from national elections.

[RangerJoe]

Ho hum:

JULY 6, 2020
Regeneron starts COVID-19 antibody cocktail late-stage trials, shares rise

Regeneron’s cocktail - a combination of an antibody made by the company and a second antibody isolated from recovered COVID-19 patients - is designed to bind the antibodies to the coronavirus’ spike protein, limiting the ability of viruses to move to other cells.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2471BM

[RangerJoe]

These 9 hand sanitizers may be toxic, FDA warns

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) over the weekend announced that at least nine hand sanitizers made by Eskbiochem SA de CV in Mexico may be toxic “due to the potential presence of methanol (wood alcohol), a substance that can be toxic when absorbed through the skin or ingested.”
.
.
.
The affected products are as follows:

All-Clean Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-002-01)
Esk Biochem Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-007-01)
CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 75% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-008-04)
Lavar 70 Gel Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-006-01)
The Good Gel Antibacterial Gel Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-010-10)
CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 80% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-005-03)
CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 75% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-009-01)
CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 80% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-003-01)
Saniderm Advanced Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-001-01)
The federal agency tested samples of Lavar Gel and CleanCare No Germ, finding that Lavar Gel contains 81 percent methanol and no ethyl alcohol, while CleanCare No Germ contains 28 percent methanol.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/these-9- ... -fda-warns

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Until you have enough people infected then recovered, you will not reach heard immunity.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53315983

[sPzAbt653]

239 scientists warn World Health Organization of airborne transmission risks from coronavirus

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/239-scien ... ronavirus/

AHAH !! We need to work on Ventilation ... duh.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

239 scientists warn World Health Organization of airborne transmission risks from coronavirus

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/239-scien ... ronavirus/

AHAH !! We need to work on Ventilation ... duh.

Just quit breathing non-canned air . . .

As far as ventilating, I have no problem . . .

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Until you have enough people infected then recovered, you will not reach heard immunity.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53315983

The problem with that study is that the antibody level may go so low that it is not detected but the memory B cells can ramp up production of antibodies fairly quickly to stop a reinfection. That memory B cell information was posted previously.

The article also states how people can keep getting the common cold many times, but there are over 100 viruses that can cause the common cold. The article does not state that people can get the common cold from the same virus again. That is why adults may not get a cold even if they are around children who have a cold and are infectious.

[RangerJoe]

It is hard to stop the spread when:

Coronavirus: Majority testing positive have no symptoms

ONS survey

While the ONS survey includes relatively small numbers of positive swab tests (120 infections in all) making it hard to make any strong conclusions about who is most likely to be infected, there are some patterns coming through in the data:

Those in people-facing health or social care roles, and working outside their homes in general, were more likely to have a positive test.
People from ethnic minority backgrounds were more likely to have a positive antibody test, suggesting a past infection.
White people were the least likely proportionally to test positive for antibodies.
There was also some evidence that people living in larger households were more likely to test positive than those in smaller households.

Although men are more likely to die from coronavirus than women, this study did not find a difference in how likely they were to contract the infection.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53320155

[RangerJoe]

How would these deaths be counted:

WHO Finds Over 70 Countries At Risk Of Running Out Of HIV Drugs Due To COVID-19 Pandemic
As per the WHO survey, 24 nations out of the total have confirmed having “critically low” stock of antiretroviral medicine (ARV) owing to supply chain issues

World Health Organisation has revealed that 70 countries are at risk of running out HIV drugs due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As per a recent survey, 24 nations out of the total have confirmed having “critically low” stock of antiretroviral medicine (ARV) used in HIV treatment. In addendum, these countries have also reportedly confirmed experiencing disruptions in the supply chain since the pandemic started.

The COVID-19 pandemic has now spiralled out to infect over 11,520,000 people worldwide as per the latest tally by John Hopkins University. Meanwhile, talking about the shortage of HIV drugs, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in a statement, called the survey's findings "deeply concerning".

https://www.republicworld.com/world-new ... drugs.html

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

There is much in that thread that I would agree with.

But there is a massive leap from the current data to "dozens of NYCs around the country"

If you look at the NY numbers for late March/early April (referring to the 7 day averages). On 22/03 cases were at 2164. A week later they were at 6493 - cases had almost exactly tripled within a week. Over the same period of time deaths went from 28 to 216 - within a week they had gone up by c.7X (put another way deaths had doubled c. 3 times within a week).

Another way to look at it is the CFR. If we use a 7 day window, those 6493 cases on 29/03 translated to 633 deaths on 05/04 - a CFR of c.10%. If by comparison we look at the numbers in Georgia - cases seem to have started spiking on around 13/06 from a 'base' of 984. Looking at the graph for deaths there seems to be a corresponding up-tick developing around 25/06 at around 16 deaths. That would equate to a CFR of 1.5%.

A final way to look at it would be daily deaths/100k population. At the peak in NY this was at about 4.75. At the moment Florida is at about 0.2. So even if deaths 'followed' cases and doubled every week it would take about 4.5 weeks of consistent increase at that pace before getting to the equivalent of NY. California/Georgia/Texas are a little lower at 0.15/0.15/0.13 respectively. Arizona is worse off at about 0.5 (so just over 3 weeks worth of weekly doubling to reach an equivalent of NY).

I think the much bigger concern from a US perspective is what happens in October/November. I think that period will be difficult everywhere but the US will be in a uniquely difficult position as the Covid-19 'issue' has become much more politicised than it has elsewhere - a problem that could become even more acute if the situation starts getting more ugly a month or two out from national elections.

Testing was only just starting to see the tip of the iceberg in NY in late March and early April. As we know now the actual number of tested cases is nowhere near the actual cases.

Testing now is much more prevalent. We're seeing the actual growth more clearly, not the awareness of an already out of control outbreak like in NY. The CFR for NY during this time is nowhere near accurate.

The issue now is that unlike NY during that time, which was locked down fro March 22, there are no measures in place to check this rise in cases. The existing knowledge and messaging will help, but with more and more awareness that this is transmitting through aerosols and lingers in indoor environments, if masks aren't universal and a portion of the population continues risky behaviours socially, the increases will continue.

You mention that October and November may be even more difficult. What will happen between now and then though? If cases are rising, more of this is around, people are going about daily activities, and hospitals become overwhelmed, late summer will not be good.

This is a piece from the Guardian saying (with combined expert knowledge to back it up) what needs to happen now to battle this recent surge in case numbers.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... what-to-do

From Tom Frieden, former director of the CDC:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]In the US today, the virus has the upper hand. We can expect weeks, even months, of increases if we don’t do much better. The fact is we are creating an enormous viral reservoir that will take a very long time to recede.

One of the most serious problems is the lack of a concerted federal response. You see that in the lack of consistent messaging, the failure to tackle supply issues from tests to protective equipment, the absence of uniform standards on what states should monitor and report publicly.

In short, there is no clear national strategy and no plan for controlling this virus.

We know what we need to do. First, reduce the risk of spread by applying the three Ws: wear a mask, wash your hands and watch your distance. Then box the virus in through strategic testing, effective isolation, and rapid contact tracing and supportive quarantine.

Having done those things, we need to hold ourselves accountable by tracking how quickly tests are reported, patients isolated, and contacts traced. Singapore, New Zealand, South Korea are all tracking those indicators. We are not.[/font]

[sPzAbt653]

The Coverup of the Century

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cav-OCuNmBI

At an hour long, not for everyone, but has a lot of points of interest. I guess it is all up to interpretation of data and what your bias is, but since there has been a little discussion on the topic and some key points have been posted earlier, may be of interest to some.

Perhaps a spoiler but I found most interesting that genome sequencing suggested an origin date of Oct. 7-30 2019, while the Wuhan Lab showed no Cellphone activity for a period starting Oct. 6.

[moore4807]

Well I have today officially joined the ranks of the Covid-19 tested. I don't know how to describe the feeling of the swab against the back of my nasal passage. All I can describe is the sudden urge to sneeze and cough at the same time. I deliberately pushed my head against he headrest of my car so I couldn't pull away, as I've seen others do. While the "sneezing/coughing" feeling passed relatively quickly, I had to blow my nose several times as it started a "snot nose" reaction with me lasting 10 mins or so.

I also got a flu test swab shoved up my nostrils there too, found out about a half hour later that I tested negative for both type A and type B flu. Once the Covid-19 test comes back negative, THEN I can see the family doctor for my cold from last week and has been effectively over now for 5 days....lol

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: moore4807

Well I have today officially joined the ranks of the Covid-19 tested. I don't know how to describe the feeling of the swab against the back of my nasal passage. All I can describe is the sudden urge to sneeze and cough at the same time. I deliberately pushed my head against he headrest of my car so I couldn't pull away, as I've seen others do. While the "sneezing/coughing" feeling passed relatively quickly, I had to blow my nose several times as it started a "snot nose" reaction with me lasting 10 mins or so.

I also got a flu test swab shoved up my nostrils there too, found out about a half hour later that I tested negative for both type A and type B flu. Once the Covid-19 test comes back negative, THEN I can see the family doctor for my cold from last week and has been effectively over now for 5 days....lol

Try that nasal swab test with nothing to put your head against while you also have a sinus infection. Then you get all of that drainage. At least I was outside and not inside wearing a mask . . .

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

There is much in that thread that I would agree with.

But there is a massive leap from the current data to "dozens of NYCs around the country"

If you look at the NY numbers for late March/early April (referring to the 7 day averages). On 22/03 cases were at 2164. A week later they were at 6493 - cases had almost exactly tripled within a week. Over the same period of time deaths went from 28 to 216 - within a week they had gone up by c.7X (put another way deaths had doubled c. 3 times within a week).

Another way to look at it is the CFR. If we use a 7 day window, those 6493 cases on 29/03 translated to 633 deaths on 05/04 - a CFR of c.10%. If by comparison we look at the numbers in Georgia - cases seem to have started spiking on around 13/06 from a 'base' of 984. Looking at the graph for deaths there seems to be a corresponding up-tick developing around 25/06 at around 16 deaths. That would equate to a CFR of 1.5%.

A final way to look at it would be daily deaths/100k population. At the peak in NY this was at about 4.75. At the moment Florida is at about 0.2. So even if deaths 'followed' cases and doubled every week it would take about 4.5 weeks of consistent increase at that pace before getting to the equivalent of NY. California/Georgia/Texas are a little lower at 0.15/0.15/0.13 respectively. Arizona is worse off at about 0.5 (so just over 3 weeks worth of weekly doubling to reach an equivalent of NY).

I think the much bigger concern from a US perspective is what happens in October/November. I think that period will be difficult everywhere but the US will be in a uniquely difficult position as the Covid-19 'issue' has become much more politicised than it has elsewhere - a problem that could become even more acute if the situation starts getting more ugly a month or two out from national elections.

Testing was only just starting to see the tip of the iceberg in NY in late March and early April. As we know now the actual number of tested cases is nowhere near the actual cases.

Testing now is much more prevalent. We're seeing the actual growth more clearly, not the awareness of an already out of control outbreak like in NY. The CFR for NY during this time is nowhere near accurate.

The issue now is that unlike NY during that time, which was locked down fro March 22, there are no measures in place to check this rise in cases. The existing knowledge and messaging will help, but with more and more awareness that this is transmitting through aerosols and lingers in indoor environments, if masks aren't universal and a portion of the population continues risky behaviours socially, the increases will continue.

You mention that October and November may be even more difficult. What will happen between now and then though? If cases are rising, more of this is around, people are going about daily activities, and hospitals become overwhelmed, late summer will not be good.

Sorry I maybe didn't explain myself very well. The author was suggesting that the US would see "dozens of NYCs around the country". I don't think that will be the case - my expectation is that in this 'first wave' Texas/California/Florida/Arizona/Georgia will end up with deaths/million similar to states like Michigan/Illinois (and indeed similar to Sweden who did not lockdown at all) - i.e. around 500-600 deaths/million. I don't think they will end up like NY.

IHME have updated again - they are now forecasting 208k deaths by November 1. The October 1 forecast has gone up a little (c.180-185k). UK has gone up also. With the extra month added the different predictions with universal masks are even more stark - 45k lives saved in the US and 20k in the UK. I don't understand why both governments are not being more proactive in mandating masks in most shared public spaces.

[RangerJoe]

EPA approves use of Lysol surface disinfectant products against COVID-19
The agency said laboratory testing showed they were effective against COVID-19

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced Monday that it has approved the first two surface disinfectant products, both made by Lysol, against the novel coronavirus.

The products - Lysol Disinfectant Spray and Lysol Disinfectant Max Cover Mist -- were approved by the agency based on laboratory testing that showed they were "effective against" COVID-19, according to a statement by the EPA. Under no circumstance should the disinfectant products be administered into the human body.

“EPA is committed to identifying new tools and providing accurate and up-to-date information to help the American public protect themselves and their families from the novel coronavirus,” said EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler. “EPA's review of products tested against this virus marks an important milestone in President Trump’s all of government approach to fighting the spread of COVID-19."

https://www.foxnews.com/health/epa-appr ... oronavirus

[moore4807]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: moore4807

Well I have today officially joined the ranks of the Covid-19 tested. I don't know how to describe the feeling of the swab against the back of my nasal passage. All I can describe is the sudden urge to sneeze and cough at the same time. I deliberately pushed my head against he headrest of my car so I couldn't pull away, as I've seen others do. While the "sneezing/coughing" feeling passed relatively quickly, I had to blow my nose several times as it started a "snot nose" reaction with me lasting 10 mins or so.

I also got a flu test swab shoved up my nostrils there too, found out about a half hour later that I tested negative for both type A and type B flu. Once the Covid-19 test comes back negative, THEN I can see the family doctor for my cold from last week and has been effectively over now for 5 days....lol

Try that nasal swab test with nothing to put your head against while you also have a sinus infection. Then you get all of that drainage. At least I was outside and not inside wearing a mask . . .

Umm No Thank You! [8D] I'm now gonna hibernate until this crap gets a solution. I NEEDED a reason to give the wife, so I get more turns playing! [:D]