GD1938 v.3 BBLC

[cpdeyoung]

January 10, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

It has been a quiet month militarily but the war in China seems to be picking up a bit. The Japanese Imperial Navy has bombarded Chinese units, and the Kido Butai has attacked Canton with aircraft. Use of these naval assets is expensive in oil especially, and might reflect an increasing urgency in Tokyo. The war in Asia has been going on for a very long time and it is brutal and costly. There are rumors that Japan may seek peace.

In Europe Germany is doing extensive training and reorganization. Poland and Czechoslovakia report much movement of military vehicles and train traffic has been disrupted. The German rearmament is putting pressure on England and France to match it. This reporter considers the French Army as much the strongest in Europe. They not only enjoy the massive forts of the Maginot Line but have the finest armored fighting vehicles in the world. This reporter is also excited by the tank development in the Soviet Union.

The Axis will have to rein in their ambitions.

[cpdeyoung]

This is an open AAR of a game of GD1938.

France and Great Britain are played by Larry Burstyn.
The Soviet Union by BvB.
China and the United States by Bombur.
The Axis by cpdeyoung.

Let loose the dogs of war.

[cpdeyoung]

February 7th, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

The astounding developments in Western Europe are being discussed everywhere, but we will limit ourselves to the military consequences.

Hitlers success in bringing the Low countries into the Axis fold severely complicate the defense of France and Great Britain. While it is true that the Dutch and Belgian forces were disbanded, their production and manpower now counted in the Axis camp. The new, long, border between France and Germany seems to change the level of protection given by the Maginot Line. The distance between German territory and Paris is radically shortened.

This observer feels that France, and Great Britain, must continue to rearm, and the USSR and USA should prepare for more likely European war. The cession of the East Indies to Japan may actually calm the Empire's fears of oil shortages and defuse the war party in Tokyo.

Here are the latest statistics on the losses in China.

[cpdeyoung]

February 7th, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

There is no reason to assume Herr Hitler intends a conflict with France, but this map seems to show French units being fitted out. Until the new situation in Europe stabilizes this is a wise precaution. The new front line is so much closer to Paris. However the Germans are not strong. The disarmament and economic turmoil has reduced the German armed forces greatly. The French and Royal Navies greatly outnumber the Kriegsmarine. Germany has only an understanding with Italy, and a connection to faraway Japan. Austria and its former empire are not aligned with Germany. The might of the worldwide British Empire stands in a new alliance with France. While the new situation in Europe is regrettable cool heads will realize Germany is not a great power.

[BvB]

Russia has accepted French alliance request and pressured Poland.

[LarryBurstyn]

I think this is the worse start for the Allies that I've seen.
Not only the low countries have fallen into the German state but Japan has taken over the rich oil fields in Micro Indonesia.
Poland is now controlled by Soviet Union with only a few small sections left over for France to worry about. Can Germany attack Poland without attacking France?

But with an alliance between France, England and Soviet Union a war started on one will be a war against all. The world watches in "fear" as a new larger war become possible and maybe even inevitable.

EDIT>>
I did not think it was possible for the Germans to threaten the low countries into surrendering this early. Germany took a big chance and it paid off for them. But so did the Soviets in Poland.

[cpdeyoung]

March 7th, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

More dramatic news out of Europe as the Soviets have engulfed Poland. The young Polish state did not make it out of the teens. Word is that the Soviets are not rushing to the German border, but it must be noted that representatives of the Red Army have presented credentials at border crossings. Stalin is said to be worried his troops will see the relative comfort the Poles live in and think less of their struggling home. This correspondent thinks the alliance between the USSR and the western allies is perhaps more important than the subsuming of Polish territory. Germany would now be faced with a two front war in any circumstance. There are rumors about that Germany sought to partition Poland between the USSR and itself. Poland would not be well handled by either of these masters.

France, which had a long alliance with Poland, did not support the Poles in the event. However she now has a stronger protector in the East. The Red Army will surely give the Germans pause to worry. This is collective action for peace, but without the collectivity.

[cpdeyoung]

March 7th, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

The German forces in the east have relieved Soviet troops of their garrison duties and Germany has proposed peace to the USSR. Across the world people wonder if the whole "war" between Germany and the USSR was phony. For the Poles it was all real enough as their country is now partitioned. In the West, Germany captured Strasbourg and some ground between Calais and Lille. Losses have been low, although the Germans only offered peace to the Soviets. The Luftwaffe has been quiet and no strategic bombing of cities has occurred. In North Africa British forces have moved toward the Libyan border which is lightly garrisoned with Italian troops. We interpret this as keeping some pressure on Mussolini.

Here in the United States the German and Japanese moves in Surinam and the East Indies have caused concern in Washington.

[cpdeyoung]

April 4th, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

The Red Army fought the Heer for weeks before the peace between the USSR and Germany kicked in. The German generals were all for keeping on fighting, but the command was to stop. Rumor has it the Germans were very unhappy with Soviet behavior and will not forget. The Luftwaffe made mock attacks on the Red Baltic Fleet.

In the west the German forces threw everything they had at Lille but the big French D-1 and B1 bis armor held the city. Lille is a vital supply center for France, and coveted by Germany. The French successes if continued may well bring the USSR back into the war. She is still allied to France and Great Britain. Even with peace in the east train spotters say no significant forces are moving west.

[cpdeyoung]

May 2nd, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

Germany is faced with strong forces on the western front. The supplies of Lille are an important gain however. France will ave to depend on Great Britain for some supplies now. Germany started this war in a weakened state and the aggressive Soviet Union has surely been a shock. Germany is not about to sue for peace in the west, but she does not have a mighty hammer to smash at the French wall.

The war in Asia is bloody. The Japanese are watching the Soviets carefully. We have had no word of any diplomacy going on between them. The USSR is playing a mighty role and the Five Year Plans seem to have worked well.

[cpdeyoung]

May 25th, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

The Tribune is working overtime as the cable from South America is not functioning properly. During this lull I will try and provide an overview of the current conflict.

First let us try and analyze why there is a war in Europe. After a treaty breaking rearmament Germany threatened the Benelux countries with a major invasion. After polling the situation with their allies, the Low Countries caved into German demands and allowed the Heer to take over their defense. Their armed forces were disbanded, and their resources were diverted to Germany. This resulted in a significant increase in German strength.

The Soviet Union saw the coup in the Low Countries as the first stage in a campaign in the west against France and sought a riposte. They tried a threat of their own against Poland, and the Poles saw the new calculus of forces in Europe had turned against them and capitulated to the USSR. The USSR concluded an unexpected alliance with France.

Germany woke up to find a powerful France and Great Britain in the west, and Poland occupied by the Red Army. The Soviets were a more potent threat to East Prussia than Poland ever was and, once occupied, Poland would provide the Soviets with a springboard threatening Berlin itself. What was Germany to do?

Here in America I can only speculate but my theory is Germany was faced with a multi-part dilemma. The USA, the USSR, and the Franco-British Allies had immense potential. France and Britain were bound together in Europe. The Americans and Soviets were immature but were threatening to be Powers a level above any other country. German planners looked at productive capacity and realized their Fatherland was soon going to be a second-rate power in a world dominated by “super” powers. Germany had one chance to avoid this fate. They must strike now, boldly and quickly, and weld continental Europe into a power to challenge the coming great powers. There was certainly no room for a Soviet Union dominating Poland. In a Europe at peace Germany must go to war.

Germany was not alone in the world. The Italians and Japanese were joined to Germany in an Axis alliance. Germany knew Italy was weak and the Wilhelmstrasse worked to slow the Italian progress towards war. The Italian The Italians were greedy for gains in the Mediterranean area, and Germany saw ports and cities to defend. The German planners worked on ways to turn a potential liability to an asset.

Japan was not weak, but she was at war with a tough foe. The United States were deeply concerned that Japan might become even more powerful in the Far East. The United States had sympathy with China and had begun a moral embargo on Japan. The Soviet Union had a long border with Japan, a border which had seen recent conflict. Japan could not afford to weaken her defenses along this border.

The current situation has the Franco-British and Soviets allied, and the Soviets building up their forces facing Germany. War with the Soviets will come with any German attacks other than the current conflict with the French and British. An attack on Denmark, for example, would be a casus belli for the USSR. As long as the alliance between the Soviets and the West persists Germany will have to think twice while reshaping Europe.

All this is only my view from the Tribune’s offices in New York. London, Paris, and Moscow will all see things differently. Germany, Japan, and Italy all seem contained at present and only military success for the Axis can change this.

[cpdeyoung]

May 30th, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

We start this article with news from the Far East. Dispatches from both the Chinese and Japanese tell of a higher level of intensity in their battles. The Japanese have their hands full and are making only selected attacks. The Chinese are probably not about to shift to an offensive stance, but their defense is much stiffer.

The Royal Navy and Kriegsmarine met for the first time but there was no combat. The meeting was far to the south off the west coast of Africa.

In the west Germany managed to capture two French hexes but the second hex is not strongly held and may be vulnerable. Germany may be conserving strength as they seem to make only two or three land assaults per month.

[cpdeyoung]

June 27th, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

The battles in France are fierce. A British expeditionary force had joined the French in re-capturing the "second hex" taken by the Germans last month.

[cpdeyoung]

June 27th, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

This war continues to hold tragic surprises. As the French troops bravely resisted the German attack the French Left called for a rising at, and just behind, the front. The cities of Calais and Reims rose in Communes and the countryside between the two cities did also. These leftists declared for the Soviet Union in the midst of the crucial battle for France. All their production was dedicated to the USSR. French troops did not join in, in fact we hear there were incidents of the troops suppressing leftist riots. The Germans were quick to strike. They took Reims and pushed through the communist countryside. Calais is encircled and can only be supplied by sea as the city will not supply them. In 1871 the communards waited till French defeat. They did not commit treason in the midst of a war. This reporter cannot remember another example of such treachery by citizens. Was the Comintern involved in the event? Is the Soviet Union seeking the destruction of her "ally"?

The British have a base at Le Havre. The Germans dealt harshly with the British troops at the front sending them streaming away in tatters.

We hear of German activity in the east also, and will report as things become clearer.

[cpdeyoung]

June 27th, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

The reports from the east are true. Germany has gone to war with Czechoslovakia. The Soviet Union promptly joined the conflict. Germany is now at war withe France, Great Britain, Czechoslovakia, and the USSR. It is almost easier to list the countries Germany is not at war with. The Czechs have not lost a city or resource, but the Germans are pressing in from all borders. The Germans and Soviets have not had any major battles. We hear that the most serious losses were inflicted on the Germans by the Czechs. A well known Danish commentator speculates the Germans must be spread very thin.

In the Far East China is holding well, but Japan has started pushing on Chengchow, and has drives active on Sian and Wuhan. Japan has been distributing semi-automatic rifles to the troops. The substitution is well along but not complete.

[cpdeyoung]

July 25th, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

Berlin has been raided by Red Air Force night bombers. They did not cause a great deal of damage, but this is probably the forecast of much more to come. The French troops in Red Calais have come under Red Army control, although there is no HQ there.

[cpdeyoung]

July 25th, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

Calais, Paris, and Le Havre have been taken by the Germans. The loss of Paris resounds, with the United States taking note. Supply and diplomacy will be disrupted for the French. It will be interesting to see how the French Army reacts. Their left flank is exposed.The right flank still anchored on the Maginot Line.

[cpdeyoung]

July 25th, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

There was speculation that the Red Army might be able to campaign in Czechoslovakia but so far that has not happened. How long can Germany sustain active campaigning on two fronts?

[cpdeyoung]

July 25th, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

Reports from the Far East say that Japanese losses were savage last month. We hear that losses on this scale are unsustainable. Thailand has come under Japanese control and increases the manpower pool a bit. Japan is a small nation which has set itself a very large task.

[cpdeyoung]

August 22nd, 1938

Baldwin Hanson, Military analyst, New York Tribune

The continuing defense of France after the fall of Paris is frustrating to the Germans. The Soviets may be influencing the French to hold out in order to aid the Soviet cause. There is word of German seaplanes finding and attacking a Royal Navy fleet. Both sides tool losses, but the RN feels they got the better of the exchange.

In the East the Czechs were subdued.

In the Far East we hear the Japanese are very disturbed at their considerable losses. No Chinese city or resource has been taken.