A turn with more thinking than doing. Ignoring what the Soviets actually did, I have basically lost track of 2 of their core offensive groups. They had pulled the Gds formations that had been in the Chernobyl region out and replaced them by regular rifle divisions. Also I'm no longer sure what is the focus for the cluster facing Minsk.
So, normally a good time to really commit to air recon, except it was a blizzard turn so the airforce was grounded. These are relatively rare in the 43/44 winter, in this case only led to light snow on the ground and its almost inevitable it won't be sustained into next week – but not good for an army increasingly relying on its airpower.
To add to my uncertainty, the Soviets didn't do much. I think more generally he's worried about manpower reserves going into 1944 (he can only really shrink the Red Army towards 6m once the front shortens past Riga and even better past Koenigsberg) and his tanks are dieing in large numbers (and its not till May 44 that the T34/85 really deploys).
The result was two isolated offensives and a lot of worry.
In the north not much, but then can proceed via a couple of hexes a turn, and regular breaks, I doubt I will hold Pskov much into 1944 and when it falls they can have Talinin (if its still winter I might try to defend it). Also this sector will need to be abandoned if they manage a break out at Minsk.
But its losses, units off the line to refit and the need for the occasional fresh formation.
Far more serious in the south where they carried on last week's attack. Worth setting out the operational dynamic, breaking my lines, especially where I have forts 2/3, costs them a lot. They can easily lose 3-5k in a successful attack. As above the first set of CPP rules masked this as they could keep a high cv despite attrition. From as much tracking as I can do, my instinct now is the break-through elements are all off the line for a quick refit, so even their most powerful groups slowly degrade.
Here they again took heavy losses but this time committed their cavalry and tank/mech forces.
So the gamble. I was able easily to free up one Pzr Corps from 1 PzrA as that had been shoring up my lines around Chernobyl. Whatever the Soviets do next they now can't attack on that sector next turn due to the MP costs.
The gamble was whether to weaken the shield actually covering Kiyev. In the end I pulled out another Corps so 2 corps of 1 PzrA hit their northern edge and 2 from 4 Pzr the south. No encirclement, what I am gambling on is these losses, added to the casualties taken by the Rifle Corps effectively stall this attack.
Lacking air power as a force multiplier meant my wins were pretty marginal, but adding to their breakthrough losses that might give me some respite.
Apart from in respect of tanks, more or less a 1-1 exchange. The reality is a little better as their losses are masked by something like 15k return of disabled manpower.
So I have weakened 2/3 of my Pzr formations in the Ukraine, the hope is that has left that cluster of formations badly weakened in turn. What I really have no idea is what the formations that were originally set to the NW of Kiyev are doing – but I strongly suspect they will erupt from their lodgement around Cherkassy in the next turn or so.
( my VtB posts aside)
