AI for MWiF - USSR

[Froonp]

(16) A frontline is only as good as its weakest hex. Therefore we can use the hex CV measure to try out different placements of units to maximize the strength of the weakest hex.
(17) We can also examine different possible frontlines and perform the same assessment. This will let us decide whether to pull out of Belgium (1234 and 1233) if we lose 1232 and defend in France proper instead. The advantage is going to be that Lille is a city so the assault table has to be used. Both Lille and Calais are attackable from fewer hexes (3 to 2 and 2 to 1) than the hexes in Belgium. It should also let us measure the benefit of a shorter frontline since the average strength point per hex is likely to increase.

I would like to add here that even if anonther frontline seems better using all the calculations you exposed, the game also have to assess 2 things :
- Will his army be able to shift from the current frontline to the better one in good order ?
- Will keeping the less good, but currently occupied, frontline make you buy some time ? Sometime it may be better to hold a defensive line, even if it is not the best, just long enough and retreat when it is very threatened. I mean, it would be bad if the AIO didn't held some ground just to achive better defensive positions.

I'm not sure if you talked about this, but the AIO should also be able to foresee eventual outflankings, either because the flanks are not solidely anchored (Russia, China with the Europe scale), or because of possible invasions (northern Europe, Italy), and deal with these threat.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Froonp

(16) A frontline is only as good as its weakest hex. Therefore we can use the hex CV measure to try out different placements of units to maximize the strength of the weakest hex.
(17) We can also examine different possible frontlines and perform the same assessment. This will let us decide whether to pull out of Belgium (1234 and 1233) if we lose 1232 and defend in France proper instead. The advantage is going to be that Lille is a city so the assault table has to be used. Both Lille and Calais are attackable from fewer hexes (3 to 2 and 2 to 1) than the hexes in Belgium. It should also let us measure the benefit of a shorter frontline since the average strength point per hex is likely to increase.

I would like to add here that even if anonther frontline seems better using all the calculations you exposed, the game also have to assess 2 things :
- Will his army be able to shift from the current frontline to the better one in good order ?
- Will keeping the less good, but currently occupied, frontline make you buy some time ? Sometime it may be better to hold a defensive line, even if it is not the best, just long enough and retreat when it is very threatened. I mean, it would be bad if the AIO didn't held some ground just to achive better defensive positions.

I'm not sure if you talked about this, but the AIO should also be able to foresee eventual outflankings, either because the flanks are not solidely anchored (Russia, China with the Europe scale), or because of possible invasions (northern Europe, Italy), and deal with these threat.

I will reply to this post in the new thread about the value of hexes and sea areas.

I created the new thread so this one could remain focused on the AI opponent design for the USSR.

[dhatchen]

There is an interesting strategy in the Millenium Annual for Russia the should be considered by the AI. It has some consequences but could really mix up an Axis player if he is not ready for an aggressive USSR [;)].

I won't repeat it here (assuming that you all have the Annual) but basically Russia gets into the war with an invasion of Denmark to create a Pact Border Area with the Germany/Danish Border and the CW takes the small ports in the north. LL starts early and Russia can use something other than Combineds, can build ahead, can build GAR, etc.

[Neilster]

Bump. I didn't want this to fall off the end of the thread list and it might be handy to make it more visible for newcomers to read.

Cheers, Neilster

[trees trees]

two different strategies for 1d10 vs 2d10

I can't even comment on 1d10 any more, it's been too long.

Here is another 800 lb gorilla sitting on your plans: Offensive Chits

Planes in Flames, 2d10, Germany with 2 O-Chits: Run Away. trade a few units covering factories railing out and keep running.

Build Strategies: one is for maximum border stuff, very good chance to prevent '41 Barbarossa.

a variant is to add necessary units to contest Persia vs. the Japanese: PARA, MTN (stuff build anyway), LND-4 (no new pilots)

russian choices must consider US entry

[Neilster]

Falling off the end of the list. Time to bump it for the new people.

Cheers, Neilster

[Froonp]

ORIGINAL: Neilster
Falling off the end of the list. Time to bump it for the new people.
Cheers, Neilster

Isn't it time to to bump this one again, for the new people, Neilster ?

[Neilster]

Ahh...yeah. Somebody do it. [:D]

Cheers, Neilster

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Some of my notes from the Europe trip that I just typed in. This section is incomplete, so perhaps you could suggest additions? Or corrections?
--------------
1.1.3.1 Bulgaria
Advantages of DOW Bulgaria
∙ A 1939 attack on Bulgaria can usually cut off both the Turkish and Bulgarian resources, even if Bulgaria is not conquered.

Disadvantages of DOW Bulgaria
∙ It takes planning, units, and time.
∙ If the USSR declares war on Bulgaria, Italy can align Bulgaria and hence create a pretty safe second home. Of course this assumes that Bulgaria is not conquered by the USSR.

Plan for conquering Bulgaria
∙ Set up the USSR naval transport and good DIVs in the Black Sea.
∙ There is a good chance of successfully invading Bulgaria during 1939.
∙ The goal is not to necessarily to conquer Bulgaria, but rather to deny Germany the Bulgarian and Turkish resources.

1.1.3.2 Rumania
Demand Bessarabia
∙ Always demand Bessarabia. But it has to be backed up by both bombers and land units, thereby posing a serious threat to capture the oil in Rumania. Never demand Bessarabia unless certain Rumania can be conquered.
∙ This gives the USSR an increased buffer zone when Germany’s Barbarossa attack begins. Seizing more land to put between Germany and the Ukraine is the primary reason for claiming Bessarabia.
∙ Prepare for the Germans railing in and acting as peace keepers. So keep a cavalry unit in western Poland to cut Germany’s railroad connection to Rumania.
∙ Demanding Bessarabia decreases the USSR’s lending to Germany which increases the USSR’s production and lowers Germany’s.
∙ There is no US Entry cost.
∙ If Germany denies the claim, then conquering Rumania and burning the oilfields is very hard on Germany. Next, the CW can DOW on Hungary, which forces Germany to align it, meaning even less lend-lease from the USSR. Altogether, this is a great reduction in BPs for Germany. In addition, the USSR will build more than usual and be in a strong position to stuff the border during 1941. Because of Germany’s reduction in BPs, France might even survive until 1941.

Don't demand Bessarabia
∙ Demanding Bessarabia makes it possible for Italy to align Yugoslavia prior to the attack on Russia.
∙ Not demanding Bessarabia means Germany has to attack Yugoslavia prior to attacking the USSR in order to be able to align Rumania and start Barbarossa adjacent to the Ukraine.
∙ The USSR can delay demanding Bessarabia if Germany is not ready to DOW Yugoslavia. The USSR can therefore wait until Germany redeploys to DOW Yugoslavia. The timing is critical though, for as soon as Germany DOW Yugoslavia, Germany is immediately able to align Rumania, and Russia can no longer demand Bessarabia.

Plan for conquering Rumania
∙ On the Nazi/Soviet border always set up to defend against a possible attack by Germany in 1939 or early 1940 ('Russia First' gambit). This should include a DOW Rumania setup in case Germany declines the Bessarabia land claim.
∙ If the optional rule for oil is being used, place every strategic bombing factor possible within range of the Rumania oil fields to discourage the Axis from denying the land claim.
∙

1.1.3.3 Persia
It is a good idea to attack Persia in 1939, but it requires planning and entails some risk if Japan responds aggressively.

Advantages of DOW Persia
∙ The one oil that is railable is useful to produce at maximum level while Russia is giving 5 RPs and 2 oil to Germany.
∙ The 3 oil come in handy when Russia reorganizes oil dependant units.
∙ The one oil that is railable is useful if the USSR loses a lot of resources to Germany.
∙ Russia can use the Siberians and Zhukov for this, and leave Vladivostok and its environs to the defense of several weak units and reserves.

Disadvantages of DOW Persia
∙ Using the Siberians and Zhukov for the war with Persia might lead to a Japanese attack on Vladivostok. However, if Japan plans on taking Vladivostok and its surrounding area, there isn’t much the USSR can do to prevent it.
∙ If the USSR DOW on Persia, it must conquer Persia quickly because an aggressive Japan can ship a couple of elite units into the Persian oil hexes. The elite units will be very difficult to destroy. Therefore, failure to conquer Persia runs the risk of giving the Japanese 3 extra oil.

Plan for conquering Persia
∙ Persia is conquered once Teheran is taken.
∙ The USSR needs 2 Siberians, the CAV DIV, 2 or 3 bombers (to ground strike the Persia unit and to provide ground support), Zhukov, and one convoy in the Caspian Sea (for supply).
∙ Instead of Zhukov, another HQ could be used, which would allow Zhukov to stay in Siberia until the USSR is sure that Japan will not attack the USSR.

1.1.3.4 Finland
It is a bad idea to attack Finland before Barbarossa.

Advantages of demanding the Finnish Borderlands
∙ Reduces the RPs sent to Germany by 1.
∙ Might gain the RP in northern Finland for the USSR if the claim is denied.
∙ Makes possible a full scale war and conquest of Finland. But Finland is difficult to conquer.
∙ Provides some (slight) extra protection for Leningrad.

Disadvantages of demanding the Finnish Borderlands
∙ The Finnish army can make this a 1914-1918 trench warfare campaign which will cost the USSR precious units. With Barbarossa impending, this is very bad.
∙ Finland can immediately be aligned by Germany. This is bad because Germany can transport Finnish units into Poland for the main thrust of Army Group North in Barbarossa.

Plan for conquering Finland
∙

1.1.3.5 Portugal
∙ Invading Portugal in late 1940 is a possibility if the Axis is setting up for a “Close the Mediterranean” strategy. Portugal has few land troops so it is easy to conquer once figuring out which home port to use for the invasion. After it’s conquered, the CW and USA can land troops there and Germany can't respond until Germany DOW the USSR.

Advantages of DOW Persia


Disadvantages of DOW Persia


Plan for conquering Portugal
∙

[Froonp]

1.1.3.3 Persia
It is a good idea to attack Persia in 1939, but it requires planning and entails some risk if Japan responds aggressively.

It's also a good idea in Spring / Summer 1940, when the US Entry Chits are smaller, and the weather good.

∙ If the USSR DOW on Persia, it must conquer Persia quickly because an aggressive Japan can ship a couple of elite units into the Persian oil hexes. The elite units will be very difficult to destroy. Therefore, failure to conquer Persia runs the risk of giving the Japanese 3 extra oil.

It is of note that those Japanese units never need to be defeated for USSR to have the oil at Persia's conquest, as Japanese units must leave (unless at war with USSR).

Plan for conquering Finland
∙

- Aim at Helsinki.
- Have PARA and invasion capable units (DIV from SCS) go around the Finnish defenses and conquer a port from where a second front aimed at Helsinki willl be created.

1.1.3.5 Portugal
∙ Invading Portugal in late 1940 is a possibility if the Axis is setting up for a “Close the Mediterranean” strategy. Portugal has few land troops so it is easy to conquer once figuring out which home port to use for the invasion. After it’s conquered, the CW and USA can land troops there and Germany can't respond until Germany DOW the USSR.

This is possible, and the conquest has to be done by the CW instead of Russia who is too far awa to reach Portugal. Unless serious preparations are done (see below the "Plan for conquering Portugal").

But, if Portugal is conquered by the CW, can't Germany just enter it then ? I think that if Portugal become CW conquered, its hexes are CW controlled, so Germany can enter it, so the whole gamey thing of preventing Germany entering is collapsing, isn't it ?

Advantages of DOW Portugal

Having the Azores & Lisbon bases which are very good bases to have to defend against the Battle of the Atlantic.

Disadvantages of DOW Portugal

- This is gamey if done by USSR and it can't reach it. Countries should not be able to DoW countries they can't reach.
- Maybe also an US Entry hit.

Plan for conquering Portugal

Take Lisbon.
Invade with a DIV, reinforce with 2 corps (15 combat factors), have 15 shore bombardment points available, and assault the (3-1) (MiF 2007 originated) Portuguese GAR to destroy it.

[Froonp]

Disadvantages of demanding the Finnish Borderlands
∙ The Finnish army can make this a 1914-1918 trench warfare campaign which will cost the USSR precious units. With Barbarossa impending, this is very bad.
∙ Finland can immediately be aligned by Germany. This is bad because Germany can transport Finnish units into Poland for the main thrust of Army Group North in Barbarossa.

Also, Germany can send German "Peacekeepers" in Finland, and Germany's Peacekeepers can be hard to overcome for early game Russian units, unless also cutting supply.
This involve naval battles in the Baltic, which in turn means sailing the Baltic Fleet fleet in winter turns when Leningrad can become frozen, which mean taking the risk that any ship unable to rebase to an unfrozen port (which Russia has none unless it also have claimed the Baltic States before) being destroyed. This means that Russia must have demanded the Baltic States before.

[Froonp]

Some of my notes from the Europe trip that I just typed in. This section is incomplete, so perhaps you could suggest additions? Or corrections?

I'd add :
1.1.3.6 Eastern Poland
Mandatory.

Advantages of demanding the Eastern Poland
∙ Always demand Eastern Poland.
∙ This gives the USSR an immensely increased buffer zone when Germany’s Barbarossa attack begins. Seizing more land to put between Germany and USSR is the primary reason for claiming Bessarabia.

Disadvantages of demanding the Eastern Poland
- US Entry hit.

Plan for demanding the Eastern Poland
- Just needs 1 Russian unit to enter it before Germany has conquered Poland, which usualy is S/O39.

1.1.3.7 Baltic States
Mandatory.

Advantages of conquering the Baltic States
∙ Always conquer the Baltic States, preferably near the end of 1940 (Summer / Fall), so that the US Entry hit concerns more 1940 chits, which are of lower average value than 1939 ones.
∙ This gives the USSR an immensely increased buffer zone when Germany’s Barbarossa attack begins. Seizing more land to put between Germany and USSR is the primary reason for conquering the Baltic States.

Disadvantages of conquering the Baltic States
- US Entry hit.

Plan for conquering the Baltic States
- Just needs 1 Russian unit to enter it before Germany DoWs Russia.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Ok.

I think I'll remove the USSR DOW on Portugal from the AIO options. Its just too unrealiatic for my taste.

[Froonp]

Some of my notes from the Europe trip that I just typed in. This section is incomplete, so perhaps you could suggest additions? Or corrections?

You should also add something about the Russian Far East, both its early defense, and the possible (late war ?) Manchurian onslaught.

[Neilster]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Ok.

I think I'll remove the USSR DOW on Portugal from the AIO options. Its just too unrealiatic for my taste.

I heartily agree. We don't want the game descending into a series of traps and tricks.

Cheers, Neilster

[wfzimmerman]

ORIGINAL: Neilster

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Ok.

I think I'll remove the USSR DOW on Portugal from the AIO options. Its just too unrealiatic for my taste.

I heartily agree. We don't want the game descending into a series of traps and tricks.

Cheers, Neilster

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)

I'd argue differently. I'd leave in, but make it a very low probability (1%). Among other things, I'd like the AI to be a good "trainer" for playing human opponents, who may very well do trips and tracks. On general principles, I think it's a mistake to make anything about the AI too predictable -- if you know it will never do anything "gamey", it is less effective.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: wfzimmerman

ORIGINAL: Neilster

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
Ok.

I think I'll remove the USSR DOW on Portugal from the AIO options. Its just too unrealiatic for my taste.

I heartily agree. We don't want the game descending into a series of traps and tricks.

Cheers, Neilster

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)

I'd argue differently. I'd leave in, but make it a very low probability (1%). Among other things, I'd like the AI to be a good "trainer" for playing human opponents, who may very well do trips and tracks. On general principles, I think it's a mistake to make anything about the AI too predictable -- if you know it will never do anything "gamey", it is less effective.

I think having the CW DOW Portugal is fine. I intend to have Italy at times conquer a Baltic State for a future home country (there actually was an Italian division fighting in the Batlic States). But having Russia send a fleet around to conquer Portugal just because the the rules are such that it presents Germany with more problems than they would have if the CW did it, ...[8|]

[trees]

[I am working on an analysis of 'stuffing the border' to post; I have a spreadsheet done but it needs several paragraphs of text to go with it]

[[The new 3-1 Portugal GARR unit is a good addition to the game. If the CW weren't prepared in Africa I think I would, as the Axis, consider putting the GARR in the Azores and rushing Japanese peacekeepers into Angola, Mozambique, or Gambia.]]


Disadvantages of Russian DoW on minor countries - US Entry options #19, #30 take longer to reach.

[trees]

Persia - PARAtroopers are extremely useful in Persia. How well the Japanese are positioned to develop logistics in the Indian Ocean (Limited Overseas Supply option in play?) is a factor. Decisions on Persia should mesh with policies regarding Japan.

[Froonp]

I intend to have Italy at times conquer a Baltic State for a future home country (there actually was an Italian division fighting in the Batlic States).

Only aligned countries count for deciding a new home country in case of conquest. Conquered are useless.