From: Houston, TX
PART I: Round Strategy
Let’s first consider the random checks against Force Proficiency and Combat Rounds Remaining.
While players have no control over their Force Proficiency, it must enter into their planning. If your force proficiency is 50%, then it is probably unwise to attempt to get nine movement/combat phases. For example, a better strategy might be to attempt to get five or less phases. Under that strategy, you would plan on attacks expending up to two rounds. Under that rule, a unit could be one round late and still be ok to add to an attack, if its addition would be significant to that attack. Bombardments could use “Limit Losses” (automatically expending two rounds).
On the other hand, if your force proficiency is 95%, you can probably safely attempt to get the full nine combat phases. That means not using any late units in attacks (see part II below), and bombardments always use “Minimize Losses”. Then you will be able to execute a few preliminary set-up attack phases before staging the critical attacks. But be aware that even in this case, you can get burned with an early, turn-ending, check failure. It’s not an exact science.
The attached table shows some odds of early turn ending depending upon Force Proficiency and choice of round strategy. There are four different Force Proficiencies evaluated, and up to three different strategies for each proficiency. In each case, the first column shows the chance of early turn ending for each individual round increment. The next column shows the cumulative chance assuming that each combat phase expends only one combat round (see part III below). The next column assumes that each combat phase expends two combat rounds (shown only for the 25%, 50%, and 80% proficiencies), and, finally, the last column (only shown for the 25% proficiency) assumes that the first combat round expends two combat rounds, and subsequent phases expend three combat rounds.
It should be obvious that a strategy attempting to get all nine combat phases should be followed if your Force Proficiency is 95%. There is only an 8.80% cumulative risk of not achieving all nine (assuming you can limit each phase to only one round - a topic for a section below).
Even at 80%, the risk only increases to 31.42%. But, note that there, a significant risk reduction is still gained by switching to a less ambitious strategy. The one shown expends one combat round on the first two phases, then expends two rounds per phase for the next three – and the risk is reduced to 21.21%.
But if your Force Proficiency is lower, other strategies may be desirable. At a 50% Force Proficiency, if each combat phase expends only one combat round, there is a 40.65% chance that the turn will end early after only six combat rounds – leaving four rounds unused. By expending two rounds per combat phase, that risk level is not reached until eight rounds have been expended.
And if your Force Proficiency is 25%, the third strategy may be best. It would have a 48.14% chance of getting all 10 combat rounds – vs. a 21.01% chance under the first strategy.
< Message edited by Curtis Lemay -- 9/5/2009 8:33:21 PM >