AAR Jon Pyle (Union) vs Joel Billings (Confederate) - Confederate POV

[Joel Billings]

Jon and I have just started a new PBEM game. For this game we're using Fog of War, Historical Leaders, and the optional Limited Command Point Recovery rule. This rule makes it more difficult to switch units between leaders. It adds a little extra realism to the game at the expense of some flexibility. When you detach a unit from a leader, the leader does not immediately regain its command point (it is regained at the start of the next turn). Command points are used to attach units, so not regaining the command point during the turn means the leader may not have enough remaining to attach another unit.

I'll be posting the Confederate viewpoint here. Jon may or may not post his own thread, but we've promised to stay out of each others threads so as to not learn things we shouldn't know. Feel free to ask questions but don't give away anything you learn from the other player's thread (assuming Jon starts posting).

Jon got initiative with his western generals in August, and decided to go for an early invasion of Kentucky. This cost the Union 100 Political points and gave Kentucky a 50% chance of joining the Confederacy (the main effects of this are 1) the Union would not be able to use Kentucky production even after taking the populated areas 2) the Union would have to garrison it with more troops to prevent partisan attacks 3) more population would join southern armies). Unfortunately for me Kentucky remained neutral. Union forces overran most of Kentucky and an army under Lyon advanced into Humbolt in Northwestern Tennessee. Albert Sydney Johnston was reinforced by several divisions from north of Nashville, but the combined forces were forced to retreat to Memphis. Union forces attacked with over 40000 troops against 24000 defenders. Union losses were 5500 men while the south lost 7000 men and 60 guns (40 heavy guns had to be abandoned during the retreat). A small confederate force advanced into Eastern Kentucky.

Union forces captured three islands off the southern Atlantic coast, but a force of 8000 men and 20 guns that invaded Jacksonville was repulsed by 12000 defenders (including Kirby Smith and 4000 men sent from Savannah). Both sides lost 1000 men and the Union also lost 10 guns.

[Joel Billings]

Jon's early move on Kentucky gives him a chance of moving on Memphis and Nashville with a significant manpower advantage. It also makes control of several key rivers more difficult for me. My goal is to hold Memphis and Nashville through the winter of 1861-62, but if he's able to get initiative with his army commanders I don't think I can stop him. I've shipped in troops from Virginia (and slightly weakened a few coastal garrisons) as my cavalry scouting in the east indicates he's moved more forces west. However, I have not indentified where his fourth army commander is located. Lyon is in Humbolt, McDowell is in Washington, McClellan is somewhere in the west (assume central Kentucky), but Hallack has not been located. I expect Jon to continue making amphibious invasions. Most of my cavalry was in the east this turn so my scouting in the west was spotty. I don't have a good sense of the number of troops in central Kentucky. The screenshot shows the situation after the Confederate August turn. The units in Memphis are shown at the bottom of the screen. The only consolation I can take from his early move into Kentucky is the 100 PPs it cost him. The Political score is Union 1015 Confederate 991.

[jcjordan]

How are the turns done - Confed then Union does their commands then turn is executed like in WITP?

[Joel Billings]

I. Initial Turn
Political and Victory Phase (Automatic)
Economic Activity Phase (Automatic)
Partisan Generation Phase (Automatic)

II. Union Turn
Pre-Movement Logistics Phase (Automatic)
Union Reaction Phase
Union Combat Phase (Automatic)
Union Attrition Phase (Automatic)
Union Movement Phase
Union Post-Movement Logistics Phase (Automatic)
Union Production Phase
Union Reinforcement Phase (Automatic)

III. Confederate Turn
Pre-Movement Logistics Phase (Automatic)
Confederate Reaction Phase
Confederate Combat Phase (Automatic)
Confederate Attrition Phase (Automatic)
Confederate Movement Phase
Confederate Post-Movement Logistics Phase (Automatic)
Confederate Production Phase
Confederate Reinforcement Phase (Automatic)


So the Union player moves units into Confederate areas to launch attacks. They are not resolved until the Combat Phase after the Confederate reaction phase. During the reaction phase there is some limited movement allowed.

[jcjordan]

Thanks

[Joel Billings]

The Union western juggernaut rolled into Gallatin (just north of Nashville). McClellan attacked, engaging with 25000 troops against 18000 Confederates led by PGT Beauregard. The Confederates took more losses (although four untrained Union brigades were routed), 7000 to 4500/10 guns, and were forced to retreat to Nashville (although it was a very close battle that could have gone either way).

This move forced me to evacuate forts in Dickson and Clarksville (the areas west and north of Nashville), and will ultimately allow the Union armies a direct line of communication. Heavy batteries were posted in a fort overlooking the Tennessee River in Lawrence (southwest of Nashville). Jeb Stuart's scouting in the east gave me the confidence to ship another 10,000 men from Virginia to Tennessee. Unfortunately news that the number of Union transports fleets has grown significantly made it difficult to further weaken my coastal garrisons (although I did steal a few units). In a command reorganization, Beauregard was sent to command the forces in Memphis, and Joe Johnston was sent to Nashville. Albert Sydney Johnston was sent to take command in Virginia. Polk is still commanding the limited forces in North Carolina.

David Twiggs, the commander in Galveston died of natural causes. I also forgot to mention that Ben McCullouch died at the battle of Humbolt in August.

In other news, the Confederacy was heartened by the success of a merchant raider commanded by Raphael Semmes (Union loss of 1 PP). Three other raiders are under construction. The Political score is Union 1027 Confederate 985, as the Union player secured Missouri and West Virginia.

Jeb Stuart's cavalry raided near Washington, destroying 27 supplies and capturing 2 more. Unfortunately my western cavalry was unsuccessful in raiding the Union depot in Humbolt (had they destroyed any supplies, it would have reduced Lyon's chance for initiative in Northwestern Tennessee next turn).

October is the last turn of good weather. I don't think I'm strong enough to repulse a major attack directed at either Memphis or Nashville. I still haven't located Halleck's army and my scouting in the Nashville area has been very limited. I'll take a big political hit if I lose either city, but I'll take a bigger hit if I fight a major battle and lose. Let's hope I don't have to make a choice next turn.

The screenshot below is the situation at the end of September, with the units in Nashville shown at the bottom.

[Joel Billings]

October was a quiet month, with no Union initiative (with 4 Army Commanders the average turn would have the Union having 1 AC with initiative). This allowed me to continue to strengthen Tennessee. My cavalry raided Gallatin which will cut his chance of initiative there next turn. As Memphis is in most danger, I sent Joe Johnston there and put Beauregard in charge of Nashville. Albert Sydney Johnston was promoted to Theater Commander in the west. This will improve my commanders' chances of getting initiative, which could help them move in the reaction phase to reach a battle. Bragg was promoted to Army Commander and sent to Northern Virginia.

[Joel Billings]

The quiet of October did not last into November. Four battles were fought with 3 southern victories and 1 Union victory. Unfortunately for the Confederacy, the largest and most important battle was the one they lost. In Louisiana, an attack was made against Fort Jackson by 10,000 men (mostly untrained), 40 guns and 2 Cruiser fleets. Defended by 4000 trained troops and 40 large guns, Fort Jackson repulsed the attack with fairly equal losses on both sides. After the battle, reinforcements were sent to replace the losses. Heavy artillery is now rolling off southern production lines and several battalions were sent to bolster the defenses of Fort Jackson and Fort St. Philip. Union forces did capture Ship Island and Dauphin Island, and these moves will help the improve the efficiency of the Union blockade of the Gulf ports.

[Joel Billings]

There were three battles in Tennessee in November.

The Union marched at least 14000 men east from Gallatin along the road to Knoxville. The 10000 Confederates in Livingston were hastily reinforced by another 16000 men from Nashville under Beauregard and Hardee. After a sharp fight involving only the Union advanced guard, the Union forces retreated back to Gallatin.

A force of 6000 men moved attacked Clarksville, hoping to open the rail line between McClellan's forces and Lyon's forces near Memphis. The local militia delayed the attackers long enough for 4000 soldiers to be ferried across the river from Nashville. After a very small battle, the Union forces withdrew.

So far so good for the Confederacy. However, in Memphis, the largest battle to date was fought between Lyon with 75000 men and Joe Johnston with over 50000. Players have the option of watching the resolution of battles in a pop-up window. I'll post the combat resolution window in the next post. The graphics are not finalized (we're waiting for a few pieces of art), but it's close enough that it's worth showing. Information is given about the number of troops that have been committed to the battle and the casualties taken. Each unit is shown firing along with the adjusted odds the unit will hit (one shot at a time). As this happens, the various numbers change, and a tug of war bar is shown indicating the likely winner of the battle. During this battle the bar was hovering near the 50/50 mark the whole time. A couple of times it moved toward the Confederate side (especially when a Union leader was hit), but each time the bar moved back toward the Union. Going in to the battle I only knew of 45000 Union troops, so I was not happy to see the Union forces committed reach 50, 60 and then 75 thousand. In the end, the Confederates were forced to retreat. The after battle report listed the combat value of the forces for retreat purposes was 393 to 385 (a difference of one infantry unit - the attacker must equal the defender in this calculation to force a retreat). The defeat cost me 47 political points and gained the Union 57 points. This was a major defeat since I also lose Nashville's production capability and the road to Arkansas is now open.

The screenshot below shows the movements in Tennessee.

[Joel Billings]

Here's the combat resolution window. This screenshot is from a rerun of the combat as I didn't think to take one during the actual battle. In the actual battle the Union leader Albin F Schoepf was the only leader wounded.

[Joel Billings]

After losing Memphis, the Political score is Union 1075 Confederate 942. With the victory in Memphis, it's quite likely that the Union will declare the Emancipation Proclamation. The risk to the Union player doing it now is that since I still control a part of Kentucky, there would be a 50% chance that Kentucky would alter its neutral stance and become a part of the Confederacy. It's a risk the Union is likely to take.

More troops have headed west, while continuing cavalry raids on Gallatin should help keep McClellan from being able to advance with his entire army.

My command reorganization was upset as Braxton Bragg had to resign due to illness. This forced me to reappoint Albert Sydney Johnston to control the Army of Northern Virginia. Samual Cooper was sent to Atlanta to assist the western commanders, leaving me without a theater commander in the east. I can't afford to lose any more senior generals.

[Joel Billings]

The Union success in the Battle of Memphis led to the issuing of the Emancipation Proclamation. In addition, recruiting of black soldiers was begun. These measures had many effects. The Confederate political score rose by 150 points, something that will help keep Confederate recruiting at high levels. The Union political score fell by 50 points (however starting in 1863 the Union would have suffered a 3 point per turn loss until the EP was issued). Confederate trade with the rest of the world drops now that the war is clearly one to end slavery. That's going to hurt. Along with more efficient blockade, my free trade is providing around 50 supplies per turn instead of the 100+ I had been getting. This will likely continue to drop as more ships are built and more ports are captured. Building commerce raiders is also going to be more expensive (not as easy to build them in England). On the plus side, several minor areas in the border states switched from neutral to Confederate controlled, so I picked up 17 more political points, but most of those will eventually by overrun by the Union. The biggest prize, Kentucky joining the Confederacy, did not happen (a 50% chance). That's a real shame as it would have given me increased recruiting (Kentuckians headed south) and forced the Union to deploy larger garrisons in Kentucky. I had two 50/50 chances to get Kentucky this game but neither came through (guess I'm paying for my good luck in my game against Rafael).

In December, Grant was named as an Army Commander and moved on Clarksville with 16000 troops. The 4000 defenders were quickly overwhelmed, with half of them surrendering and the other half escaping across the river toward Nashville. McClellan made a move on Nashville with 25000 troops. Intended as a pinning action, these troops ended up taking horrible losses as 42000 troops under Beauregard (with Longstreet as the main corps commander) savaged the Union assault. Lyon consolidated the Union position in Memphis, stockpiling supplies (forming a depot).

A 12000 man expeditionary force under Benjamin Butler was sent to Jacksonville, supported by 40 guns and 2 cruiser fleets. The defending force of 8000 men, short on artillery, put up a valiant fight but was forced to retreat. This not only will close another port and reduce overseas trade, this effectively takes Florida out of the war (loss of production and population). Although I expected to lose Jacksonville eventually, I hoped I could hold it against this kind of medium sized attack. The shortage of artillery hurt (caused by the need to reinforce the Mississippi and Tennessee River areas).

The results of all of these battles are listed in the screenshot below.

Northern newspapers report that Winfield Scott resigned due to illness (he is expected back, although given his age you never know how long he will be able to serve). Henry Halleck was named to Theater Command in the west to replace John Freemont who appears to have been dismissed.

Samual Barron's commerce raider had some success last month. Cavalry raids in the Memphis area should help keep Lyon from moving forward next month. The Political score is now Union 1040 Confederate 1076. Nashville appears safe for the moment until Grant is able to consolidate command.

[Joel Billings]

January 1862 was a quiet month with no Union army commanders getting initiative. In the screenshot you can see that Halleck got initiative (44% chance, red arrow means he has initiative). This increased the chances of each of the western commanders by about 15% (so instead of being a 10% chance Lyon had a 25% chance). Even so, lucky for me, none of them listened to Halleck's prodding.

Despite already recruiting almost 20000 black soldiers, the Union government called for more troops from the states. This dropped the Union political score but brought out another 80000 recruits. Union forces now total around 500,000 men while the Confederacy has only about 215,000 soldiers. However, the Confederacy initiated the draft and nearly 30000 additional soldiers joined the ranks, bringing the Confederate total to nearly a quarter of a million men.

Tragedy beset the Confederate navy as 2 of the 4 Confederate commerce raiders were lost in storms.

The Political score is now 975 Union Confederate 1082.

[Joel Billings]

This screen shows the situation in the west at the end of January. The Union brought additional supplies to Memphis in anticipation of further offensive action. Heavy scouting in the area fixed the entire army in Memphis at 56000 men and 120 guns (with only 2000 untrained cavalry). Grant took control of the Union army opposite Nashville. Scouting against this army was limited by 8000 Union cavalry and the bad winter weather. I'm sure the army is larger than the 38000 and 100 guns I've been able to identify to date, possibly much larger. Near Memphis I have 44000 men while near Nashville I have 68000, although 16000 of these under Hardee are off the rail in Livingston and may not be able to react to a move on Nashville. So far Union forces have tried attacks on both Livingston and Nashville. Now that Grant is in command, which way will they go?

After his disastrous attack on Nashville, McClellan was sent to lead an army of unknown size in Jacksonville. After losing the area in December, I had positioned a small cavalry force to observe the area. Their raids on Jacksonville have destroyed some supplies there and hopefully will keep McClellan off balance. If McClellan gets initiative there's no telling where he might go. He might drive up the coast toward Savannah, or hop back on transports to conduce another amphibious invasion. The Union navy has accumulated a huge transport force, giving it the capability now of landing as many as 40000 men in some areas. This has me very worried. I have finished my fort construction of major Atlantic and Gulf ports, but I've only been able to leave minimal garrisons reinforced by local militia.

McDowell remains inactive in Washington and shows no sign of movement anytime soon (the poor commanders there wont go far in winter). I've stripped Virginia of as many troops as I can afford, and will have to beef these up when good weather returns in the spring.

The real question coming up is can I stop Grant.

[Joel Billings]

February brought a few small Union attacks. In the Gulf, Galveston was attacked by a force of around 10000 men supported by artillery and ships under the command of Samuel Heintzelman. The 8000 man army of Texas, potentially reinforced by 6000 hastily mobilized militia, was unfortunately led by several mediocre commanders. They were outmaneuvered and after several skirmishes were forced to retreat to the north. This was a big disappointment as I had hoped they could resist this kind of attack. The final odds were only 42 to 41 and had the Confederate commanders been able to commit more of their troops they could have defeated the invasion force.

A small invasion of Pensacola by 6000 troops resulted in another Confederate debacle. Troops in Mobile refused to move to the support of the troops in Pensacola (a 33% chance). A small force of 2000 tried to reach the Pensacola garrison (also 2000), but the garrison surrendered before they could be fully supported. A court martial was considered for Samuel Jones for refusing to send any of his 8000 man garrison of Mobile to assist Pensacola.

In better news for the Confederacy, a Union force of 8000 moving from Memphis toward Little Rock was met and soundly defeated. John Pemberton was sent across the river with 6000 men and artillery to reinforce the 4000 men already there (another 33% chance), and they took the Union attackers by surprise.

The screenshot shows the action in February along with the situation at the end of February.

[Joel Billings]

In other news, two of the three Confederate commerce raiders enjoyed "happy times", although with the large increase in the size of the Union navy, these are not expected to continue. In fact, Union forces are getting so big that they are having supply problems. The blockade of southern ports was actually weaker than expected last turn due to supply shortages in the Union navy. I was able to get over 80 supplies through the blockade. The Union is expected to increase supply production in the near future. The forces available at the end of February is shown below (the added totals are Confederate units built at the end of the turn and not yet in the totals you see.

Albert Sydney Johnston was named Theater Commander in the east as Robert E. Lee assumed command of the Army of Northern Virginia.

The Political score is now Union 994 Confederate 1059. I can't afford to keep losing ports, but I don't see how I can stop the bleeding now given the power of the Union navy.

[Joel Billings]

In March, McDowell got initiative in Washington and elected to initiate invasions against the North Carolina coast at New Bern and Elisabeth City. Due to winter weather, only Early was able to reach the area. Early's 8000 men were not able to prevent the destruction of the 4000 man New Bern garrison and the loss of the area. Burnside attacker with at least 6000 men, but probably more. Elizabeth City was not defended. The Union has captured 5 ports and with their large navy has cut free trade to the Confederacy to 40 supplies in March. With the good weather coming in April, I've had to reinforce Northern Virginia to prepare for a possible attack from Washington. Even so, Lee has only about 50000 men to resist any Union push. I haven't been able to scout the forces in Washington for several turns, so I'm not sure what units are there. Many of the best Union leaders remain unspotted at this time so I don't know what I'm up against. In April, if the Union armies don't move out, I should be able to increase my cavalry scouting activities. The screenshot shows the positions in the east at the end of March 1862.

[Joel Billings]

In the west, Lyon sidestepped his army east to Shiloh. Instead of quickly moving in and brushing aside the defending cavalry, he took the whole month to trap and kill the defending cavalry brigade. Although this did cost me some troops, it meant that Lyon could not consolidate his position and build depots in the area. This means that there is about a 1/3 chance of Lyon getting initiative instead of the 70% chance had he moved faster and built depots. Because of this, and the strong likelihood that Grant will move on Nashville, I've decided to reinforce Beauregard's forces near Nashville and weakening the forces opposite Lyon. Active scouting of Lyon has told me the exact size of his army, but I've not been as lucky identifying Grant's forces, so no doubt I'm still outnumbered near Nashville. Two Union gunboat fleets moved down the Tennessee River and exchanged fire with my two heavy artillery units. A lucky hit damaged one of my units, but they've been reinforced and I hope to do better if the gunboats stick around and try again. The screenshot shows the ending positions in Tennessee.

[Joel Billings]

This last screenshot shows the strategic map at as of the end of March 1862. Notice that we have a bug in the color overlays on the map which makes it harder to tell which areas are controlled by the different players (it's on Keith's list of 7 items left that he needs to do before release of the game - another item on the list is to add the button art in place of the text for listing the major battles and raiders). Notice the political score. The continued loss of ground (especially ports) is bringing the Confederate political score down and bringing the Union score back over 1000 (the magic mark at which Lincoln is reelected). I need the Union to stop taking territory, or I need to win some major battles. My recruiting has been good recently, with another 20000 men joining the army at the end of March. As my field armies grow in size, I will have to watch for an opportunity where I can take the offensive to regain some lost territory. My rope-a-dope hasn't been doing well lately, failing to repel the Union amphibious invasions in Florida, Texas, and most recently North Carolina.

[Joel Billings]

As expected, in May 1862 Grant moved on Nashville. Lyon, however was unable to advance into Mississippi. My transfer of troops to Nashville in March allowed me to meet Grant's 73000 men. While Longstreet held the Nashville fortifications with 22000 men, Beauregard with 46000 men fell on Grant's flank. Another 18000 men under Hardee were not able to join up with Beauregard (Hardee failed his initiative roll). As it turned out, these additional men were not needed, as Grant's army was routed. This major southern victory was badly needed.

Two Union gunboat fleets moved south of the batteries in Lawrence and damaged a heavy artillery unit in Decatur. More heavy artillery was brought up and positioned in Decatur and Lawrence hoping to eliminate the gunboat threat. Seven Union gunboats fleets moved south on the Mississippi River and engaged 4 Heavy Artillery batteries. This move blocked any Confederate movement of troops to reinforce Madison, which was attacked by 14000 men. The 6000 Confederate defenders of Madison were easily defeated. However the Confederates got their revenge with the sinking of two Union gunboat fleets.

At the end of April, forces were sent to reinforce Joe Johnston opposite Lyon. The screenshot below shows the situation in the west at the end of April 1862.