End of the Japanese Empire, Dmitry (Allies) vs LoneRunner (Axis)

[LoneRunner]

July 1944

Russia South Jul 44 1.png (1.39 MiB) Viewed 1335 times

Chinese land near Astrakhan and capture Guryev. Not unexpected but another front I have to deal with. I reinforced Astrakhan with a corps. Can't afford to lose that port.

Otherwise the Caucasus front was relatively quiet. Heavily damaged a tank and SF unit but unable to kill either due to retreat. The pesky SF unit remained near Baku. He's not going anywhere so I'm taking my time to destroy him. I definitely want him in low supply before he's killed.

East Russia

Russia East Jul 44 1.png (1.57 MiB) Viewed 1335 times

A sharp counterattack destroyed two Chinese corps in zero supply and heavily damaged a Chinese army in low supply.

I considered two options with the tank. Add a seventh tank in France or destroy the Chinese army group approaching Barnaul. The opportunity to destroy Chinese units in low supply was too good to pass.

That 3 strength army in low supply next to Barnaul is not getting away. Hopefully the Allies will try to save him with an HQ. I'll be watching it's supply status to detect if an HQ moves near, then I'll go after the HQ.

[LoneRunner]

August 1944

The Allies stormed the thin Axis defense with massive air, land, and sea attacks. Cities throughout France were again heavily bombed as the Allies attempted to cut Axis supply and movement. More amphib landings, a corps on Normandy and special forces south of Nantes.

Here's the situation at the beginning of my turn:

France beg Aug 44 1.png (1.28 MiB) Viewed 1301 times

I thought my Normandy defense was pretty good but the Allies tore it apart. Destroyed two anti-tank guns, an anti-air unit, a corps, and heavily damaged a tank. Anti-tank and anti-air are relatively inexpensive to replace but I didn't expect to lose all three. And my sacrificial corps near Nantes wasn't even touched.

I've got plenty of firepower available, four full strength tanks and three bombers. My objective is to destroy as many Allied units as possible, preferably in low supply. Capturing ground doesn't matter at this point.

Here's my response:

France Aug 44 1.png (1.77 MiB) Viewed 1301 times

Destroyed 3 tanks and a corps. In addition, killed Montgomery! Hoorah. Attempted to kill the USA HQ by landing a para in St. Malo but only damaged it. Dang. Would have been glorious.

The para unit in St. Malo is toast. Hate to throw it away but the benefits of taking St. Malo were too good to pass up. Besides the benefit of damaging the USA HQ, the para unit cut command to three USA armored units in Cherbourg. In addition I bombed both the Cherbourg port and Cherbourg city, placing all three armored units in low supply. That should reduce the Allied response next turn.

Throwing the Romanian tank forward was more questionable but I needed the tank to destroy the UK HQ. Besides, the Allies don't have a lot of units available for a strong counterattack. And is that an airship taking up valuable real estate in Brest? I didn't realize the Allies were so concerned about subs. Although I did sink a amph transport in mid Atlantic. Got lucky when it ran into a sub.

Next turn could be a tough one. I got a lot of vulnerable units exposed to air attack. Winter can't come fast enough.

Baltic

Baltic Aug 44 1.png (1.44 MiB) Viewed 1301 times

The battle of the Baltic Sea rages onward. I was surprised that both the Bismarck and sub survived the Allied turn. I'm guessing no carriers risked the Allied rush into the Baltic sea. That could be a mistake.

Also, no landings in Denmark or on the German coast. I was sure that Copenhagen would be captured. What are the Allies up to?

A couple Axis air units moved into range so the German fleet exacted a bit of revenge by sinking a battleship and destroyer. I'll focus on making the Baltic an expensive operation for the Allies.

Heavy casualties are impacting UK and USA morale. UK morale is down to 88% and USA morale is down to 78%. That's a 4% drop in two months for the USA.

[LoneRunner]

August 1944

Allies land 2 corps on Yugoslavia coast, capture Dubrovnik and Skopje, again outflanking Axis Greek defense line. Destroy a cavalry and heavily damage a fighter.

Here's the situation at the beginning of my turn:

Balkans beg Aug 44 1.png (1.43 MiB) Viewed 1281 times

Nice attack with an elite UK corps capturing Skopje. Almost killed an elite fighter. Cavalry are not good defenders. I probably should have placed those units on the Chinese front.

Allies heavily bombed Sofia and Nish. Apparently attempting to cut Axis supply to the area. However, the HQ in Sofia continues to provide 10 supply because it's within 4 hexes of Bucharest. The Allies should be bombing Bucharest. Then I would probably be forced to vacate the area.

Surprised the Allies haven't landed near Thessaloniki. If they took that city, I would be scrambling to escape the Greek line and would probably lose Bulgaria.

With two ports captured on the Adriatic I expect Allied reinforcements to pour in. Bulgaria may be tough to hold. But on the bright side I may have lost most of my Bulgarian units, heh.

Here's my response:

Balkans Aug 44 1.png (1.44 MiB) Viewed 1281 times

Destroyed the elite UK corps in low supply and re-occupied Skopje. In addition, destroyed an Indian corps on the Greek defense line. I really should pull the Greek defense back a hex or two. But that would greatly improve the Allied supply situation and link up the landings. Right now most of their units in Greece are in low supply.

Waiting for more landings.

Italy

Italy Aug 44 1.png (1.37 MiB) Viewed 1281 times

Italian front was quiet except for a dangerous incursion by the Allies north of Marseille. Forced me to send a mech and corps. Can't afford to lose Marseille at this point as it would open up all south France.

I see the Allies are building up for an assault on the Alps. Nothing to be done about that, except I did knock 5 strength points off the UK army. Which might delay an attack.

[LoneRunner]

Aug 1944

Caucasus

Russia South Aug 44 1.png (1.15 MiB) Viewed 1245 times

Spotted another amph transport on the Caspian. Reinforcements for an attack on Astrakhan, I'm sure. Ugg, eventually I'll have to divert a valuable tank to that area to clean it up, which is what Dmitry wants.

Finally destroyed the SF unit next to Baku. The Caucasus front appears to be a stalemate. Which is fine with me at this point.

East Russia

Russia East Aug 44 1.png (2.3 MiB) Viewed 1245 times

Destroyed one Chinese army in low supply and almost killed another while incurring no losses. Wow, upgraded experienced Axis tanks are death to the Chinese.

Didn't spot a Chinese HQ but I'm sure it's there. Looks like the main Chinese effort is aimed at Akmolinsk (to the west). Akmolinsk is a dead end for China as long as I don't allow a city to be captured. China is not great on the attack and any Allied units getting near Akmolinsk are near zero supply even with an HQ.

I plan to take Semipalatinsk and cut the attack off from behind. Hopefully the pocket will be full of a lot of low supply Chinese units. German morale is holding at 111% despite heavy casualties. And I think it's mostly due to destroyed Chinese units in low supply.

[LoneRunner]

September 1944

Allies counterattacked with three anti-tank units. Special forces re-took Le Havre. Destroyed para unit and Hungarian tank.

Here's the situation at the beginning of my turn:

France beg Sep 44 1.png (1.79 MiB) Viewed 1205 times

The three anti-tank units are not well placed for defense and are vulnerable to Axis air and ground forces. Allies still don't have anti-air units in France. Which is great for Axis bombers.

I see the airship and bomber left Brittany and were replaced with a tank and artillery. Good choice. The Allies appear to be on their heels in France.

Here's my response:

France Sep 44 1.png (1.99 MiB) Viewed 1205 times

Heavy Allied losses. Destroyed three anti-tank guns and a special forces. Sunk two troop transports.

Captured the Nantes stronghold and cleared the Normandy area of Allied aggressors, woohoo. I captured and withdrew from Cherbourg, mostly to destroy the port and city supply. The mech unit near Cherbourg is protected with an anti-air gun and fighter cover but is still vulnerable to AT and bomber attacks. I'm hoping that Allied air power took a pounding last month and needs a turn to recover.

Baltic Sea

Baltic Sep 44 1.png (1.79 MiB) Viewed 1205 times

The battle continues to rage in the Baltic. The Allies attempted to sink the Bismarck during their turn but came up short. Allies lack of air power in the Baltic makes the Bismarck is a tough nut to crack.

My air units and sub took a toll on the Allied fleet. Sunk a battleship and heavy cruiser.

Noticed that the Allies are placing two ships next to each port, attempting to attrition the ports. Interesting. Gonna cost them a lot of ships. I improved anti-air defenses in Copenhagen and Stettin, so maybe Allied air is feeling the hurt.

Still no invasion of Denmark or Germany's north coast. Where's the hoard of amphibious transports?

[LoneRunner]

September 1944

Allies landed a Chinese army and an artillery gun on the Adriatic coast. Destroyed one corps and captured Tirana. Interesting placement of army near Split and artillery in Tirana. Almost appear to be throw away units. I can understand the Chinese army. It's pretty much cannon fodder. But the artillery?

The big news of the Allied turn is the destruction of my fighter unit. I thought it was well protected in the mountains near Sofia (see X on map) but the Allies combined land air and carriers blasted the lone plane. Shouldn't have been a surprise to me, only 3 hexes from the coast. Allied carriers are too numerous and powerful for air units to be anywhere near the coast.

Here's the situation at the beginning of my turn:

Balkans beg Sep 44 1.png (1.72 MiB) Viewed 1162 times

I guess the Allies must really want Tirana. The port would really improve their supply situation in Northern Greece. The purpose of the Chinese army is to continue stretching Axis lines. Eventually the Axis will run out of units to fill holes.

Here's my response:

Balkans Sep 44 1.png (1.81 MiB) Viewed 1186 times

Destroyed the Chinese army and the artillery. However, I didn't re-occupy Tirana. Can't afford to sacrifice a corps every turn holding the city. Besides, I'm getting close to pulling back the Greek defense. Notice also that the Balkans are sucking in more and more Axis units.

I'm starting to feel the pinch of Axis unit losses. Axis are down to 123 land units in September. That's a loss of 7 units since the end of July. The Allies should be struggling to replace heavy losses but the UK/USA land unit count remained steady at 79 units from July to September. And, for the first time Allied land unit count equals Axis land unit count at 123 units each. Ouch. An ominous sign.

[LoneRunner]

September 1944

Southern Russia

Russia South Sep 44 1.png (2.46 MiB) Viewed 1183 times

Allies landed another army on the coast near Astrakhan. Caused me to reinforce with a valuable army. Can't afford to lose the Astrakhan port. If the Allies captured the port they would flood the area with units and totally outflank the Caucasus.


East Russia

Russia East Sep 44 1.png (2.51 MiB) Viewed 1183 times

Destroyed a Chinese army and cut to road west to Akmolinsk. That places any Chinese units near the Karaganda mine in zero supply.

Found a Chinese HQ and tank. Those should be easy kills if I can catch them and the weather holds.

[LoneRunner]

October 1944

Allies land 2 more tanks. Heavily damage two Axis tanks and a mech. Retake Nantes and Cherbourg. Allied air grounded by rain in England otherwise Axis losses would have been a lot heavier.

Here's the situation at the beginning of my turn:

France beg Oct 44 1.png (1.29 MiB) Viewed 1158 times

I've got three full strength tanks and two armies within range of the Allied beachhead. Allied air is socked under Fall rains. Most of the Allied carriers are in the Med (see destruction of my fighter unit last turn). This may be my last opportunity to destroy the Allied beachhead in France. Then I can turn my tanks on the Balkans, which is a growing problem.

It's a risk worth taking.

Here's my response:

France Oct 44 1.png (1.87 MiB) Viewed 1158 times

Destroyed a tank, artillery, army, corps, and troop transport. Heavily bombed the port of Brest. Recaptured St Malo and Nantes.

I've got two full strength tanks on the front line, protected by anti-air. Next turn I might be able to blast the Allies off the Brest peninsula. Gonna be glorious.

Baltic Sea

Baltic Oct 44 1.png (1.68 MiB) Viewed 1158 times

The Allied fleet mostly retreated into the north Baltic Sea. Maybe losses were too heavy or maybe they're planning something.

Sank a battleship and destroyer.

[Elessar2]

Your opponent made a big error by not invading Denmark & the Baltic coast while instead continuing to pile units in the Balkans. If you look at the terrain in both areas there's no comparison. Plus your tanks cannot be easily and cheaply shifted around the map to meet every possible landing-even Forced Marches porks their effectiveness the following turn, and their HQs can't force-march at all. He should be in Berlin by now.

[DmitryN]

Thought about it, but:

1. North Germany is not reachable for aviation located in safe place. UK and Italy, are such good supply and safe loacations for France and Balkans.
2. Amph transports in the Baltic are easy targets for axis aviation, and they made more losses for axis compared with normal land units. Balkans make axis units be reachable from the sea from both flanks.
3. Excellent axis supply in Germany.
4. Historically a lot of corps anti-air etc were going from pacific theater, including constant Chineese and Indian troops, for them moving to baltic means 3 additional turns.
5.Romania.

[LoneRunner]

Your opponent made a big error by not invading Denmark & the Baltic coast while instead continuing to pile units in the Balkans. If you look at the terrain in both areas there's no comparison. Plus your tanks cannot be easily and cheaply shifted around the map to meet every possible landing-even Forced Marches porks their effectiveness the following turn, and their HQs can't force-march at all. He should be in Berlin by now.

Good point Elessar, invading Denmark and northern Germany would have stretched Axis forces to the limit. And I would have had to pull units from every front responding to the threat. But, definitely not a cake walk into Berlin.

Dmitry is right, airpower is key for the Allies. They just can't compete with German armor without air support. The Allies could have flooded the Baltic with carriers but carriers are mediocre against land units. And terrible at fighter support. In order to invade northern Germany, I think the Allies have to take Denmark and Sweden. And basing bombers in Sweden with winter coming, hmmm, a tough decision.

Notice that most of the Allied units in the Balkans were corps. In clear terrain, in northern Germany, I would have eaten those up. Lots of tanks are required for a northern Germany invasion, and that would have ended the Normandy campaign.

So, cool. These competing strategic decisions are what make WaW such a great game.

[LoneRunner]

October 1944

Allies take Marseille. Italy doesn't have the big moves like we see in Normandy. Just a relentless forward push by the Allies. Southern France is now threatened which could outflank the entire Normandy front.

Here's the situation at the beginning of my turn:

Italy beg Oct 44 1.png (1.1 MiB) Viewed 1076 times

I didn't occupy the hex NW of Marseille because it's swamp. Terrible defense despite the river crossing and protection from amphib attacks.

Here's my response:

Italy Oct 44 1.png (1.22 MiB) Viewed 1076 times

Yeah, now south France is tying up two armies, a mech, and artillery. Excellent use of Italian position by Dmitry to keep stretching Axis forces.


Balkans

Balkans Oct 44 1.png (1.52 MiB) Viewed 1076 times

Not a lot of movement by the Allies. Just constant pounding of the Axis defense regardless of losses. Heavily damaged the Romanian tank which is expensive to repair.

I repaired the tank and brought in two more. Also, replaced the lost fighter. Preparing to eliminate the Yugoslavia beachhead.

Not losing many units in the Balkans and no danger of breakthrough. But the grinding front is demanding more and more reinforcements and MPPs. Also, I'm concerned that the front is drawing units away from the impending real battle in north Germany.

[LoneRunner]

October 1944

China counterattacked with their lone tank, with little effect.

Here's the situation at the beginning of my turn:

Russia East beg Oct 44 1.png (2.44 MiB) Viewed 1067 times

Chinese reinforcements are pouring in on the east. I see an HQ and the communists finally showed up. The Allies are pushing hard to attract Axis attention.

Here's my response:

Russia East Oct 44 1.png (2.36 MiB) Viewed 1067 times

Destroyed two Chinese armies. Recaptured the Karaganda mine. Might take Semipalatinsk next turn. Leaving that tank in the east is paying dividends.

Yes, ouch, I had to deploy another corps in the east. I can't afford to lose that position. After I eliminate the Chinese threat in the south, I'll bring the tank east and deal with the communists.

[LoneRunner]

November 1944

France

Skies clear over Western Europe and the Allies launch a brilliant air, land, and sea attack that leaves Axis defenses in shambles.

Here's the situation at the beginning of my turn:

France beg Nov 44 1.png (1.76 MiB) Viewed 1032 times

The Allies destroyed three tanks, an army, an anti-air unit, and a fighter. Paratroops capture Metz and Chalons. At least two tanks and two mech units land on the coast. At this point Allies outnumber Axis land units in France.

Wow, excellent move by Dmitry. He must have been preparing for this moment for months. Never mind sweeping the Allies off Brittany, I'll have a difficult time holding Paris.

Balkans

Balkans beg Nov 44 1.png (1.35 MiB) Viewed 1032 times

Meanwhile in the Balkans, the Allies launch a strong air and land attack that destroys an army and breaks the Axis defensive line in northern Greece.

[LoneRunner]

November 1944

With two and a half years to go, I decided the Axis position was untenable and resigned. A tough decision because although France was a disaster, the Balkans and south and east Russia were in pretty good shape.

I could have scraped enough units from other fronts to hold France and extended the game a few more months. But I felt the Axis position was getting more desperate each turn. Allied production and air power had already buried Germany.

Shifting units into France might have been a temporary fix but another clear weather turn would have destroyed my defense. And without reinforcement the Balkans or southern Russia would become serious. Or the Baltic could become a threat. I couldn't afford to lose either Romania or Finland. Or northern Germany.

Here's the unit report:

Units beg Nov 44 1.png (738.61 KiB) Viewed 1021 times

Germany is down to 120 land units. A drop of 10 units in the last five month. During the same five months, UK/USA land units increased by 4 units (from 69 to 73). That's despite massive Allied losses in France. A clear demonstration of the power of Allied production.

Also, many Axis unit losses were upgraded tanks and armies. Expensive to replace even at 60%.

MPP Production per turn as of November (includes convoys)

Germany 1,080

Allies
UK 1,100
USA 1,130
China 380
India 170
Total 2,780

Allies production was close to 3 times larger than Axis. A huge hurdle to overcome. Especially considering overwhelming Allied air power.

Unit Losses

Just for fun, here's the detailed loss report for the game:

Losses Detail beg Nov 44 1.png (755 KiB) Viewed 1021 times

Heavy losses for all sides. Germany's losses of 13 tanks does stand out.

Bismarck

And just for fun, here's the honors report for the Bismarck. She survived the whole war and took down an entire Allied fleet.

Bismarck Honors Dec 44 1.png (417.78 KiB) Viewed 1015 times

Can Germany win without Japan?

Yes, definitely. I made many mistakes. For example, I lost a lot of units in Italy and Greece in unforced errors. And the final disaster in France was totally unnecessary. Yes, the skies clearing over my final attack in France was unfortunate but I should not have risked an attack on Brittany. After driving the Allies from Normandy, I should have pulled back into my standard French defense and let the Allies come to me. That war of attrition was definitely in my favor.

Probably my biggest mistake was not conquering the Middle East while UK was involved with Japan. I could have shifted 3 or 4 tanks into the Caucasus in early 1942 and easily conquered Persia, perhaps racing to the Suez before UK/USA could respond. Considering the bad weather in Russia, the absence of 3 or 4 tanks on the Russian front would not have had much impact on the time table for the conquest of Perm.

Thanks for the excellent and fun game Dmitry. You are a worthy opponent. I'll see you over the game board again.

And thanks for reading the AAR everyone.

[BiteNibbleChomp]

Awesome AAR LoneRunner, and great job Dmitry on your victory!

- BNC

[Taifun]

Fantastic AAR LoneRunner! Great job and thanks for sharing with us

[DmitryN]

Lonerunner thank you very much for your great AAR! It was very interesting to read even after playing it yourself.

Just a few general comments.

1. I agree that end 1944 there were no chances for Germany to survive till 1947. The figures given does not reflect the production queue. After making all research investments possible and buying out for the first time all the expensive units which are produced long (including some exotic like DEI bombers, which did not yet came altogether with all other minors aviation) I just switched few turns ago for purchasing cheaper and faster builded units or mainly repurchasing expensive for 60% cost and time. So the line of production was quite long. With allies production constantly rising and axis reducing, and already not enough to buy back killed units, there were no way of surviving 2,5 years. Summer 1945 both France and Balkans would be defenetly lost and that’s it. Actually the result was obvious much earlier, at least from the fell of Italy.

2. Moreover I guess that with somewhat equal players if allies make early attack on Japan and axis are not prepared to it there are no real chances at all for axis to survive. Lonerunners’ Barbarossa was excellent and the fastest possible. He was lucky with the earliest possible coup in Yougoslavia, invested everything in Barbarossa start it very early and made it perfect ad fast. His advances in China were also above normal level (should be noted though that knowing about my plan to attack Japan I did not take much care of China losses in the beginning, trying to make more demage to Japan for any cost). However after fall of Japan in 1943 with Italy, doomed from the beginning, resources are too unproportional. If Japan holds till 1944 it can work, but March 1943 leaves no chances to axis without regard to the quality of their defence.

3. I agree with Lonerunner thoughts about my following mistakes: (a) diplo on Greece was stupid. Turkey and Sweden are defenetly better choice. Moreover I could invest in 2 countries the same time having 3 time more chits in diplomacy than axis, but did not don’t know why (b) Lose of big ships and morale was the issue which I missed. As axis had no fleet and I had plenty of ships the idea to use them at least to block ports sounded reasonable, but the point with morale lose is much more important. (c) going with China troops to Siberia and Middle Asia was absolute stupid idea. They could make much more on Balkans or Italy. I understood it too late as it take years to withdraw unit from Siberia to any ports, and I went logistic research later than nessesary.

4. From my point of view main axis mistakes were:
(a) not going Egypt and Middle east in 1940. With UK preparing to attack Japan (which is quite costly transport research and naval preparation) I could not really resist in Egypt. Russia falling 2-3 additional months later could not change much, but money from middle east with additional UK losses there could. I guess it was the only axis decision which really could change this game.

(Actually I think that attack on Egypt is a must in any situation. Skipping it is definite mistake. With 3 German tanks with mobility in Africa there is no way UK can hold Egypt and Iraq. Losses ratio is strongly in favor of Germans, axis receive additional constant income, experienced tanks, and chance to have Turkey as allies. Weaker Barbarossa is compensated by experienced tank attack to Baku from Iran spring 1942. With best 11-12 stength units not affected by Russian winter)

(b) japan held too many troops in Сhina even after it was obvious that allies went “all in” to kill Japan. Axis needed to withdraw these units much earlier, which could help japan to hold at least half year.

(c) I agree that German passiveness summer 1943 was a mistake. There were options like Turkey etc. I dont think it could change much, but anyway can make axis a bit stronger.

Thank you for the excellent game and AAR!

[Elessar2]

I said this in the main forum thread about trivial penalties if the UK attacks Japan early like they did, but a quick Sealion could have reaped many benefits, taking the heat off of both of Germany's allies. Yeah would have cost several hundred MPPs to operate air and key land units west, and would have had to have stalemated Russia while the UK home islands were conquered, but you did have time to reverse course before comitting everything to Barbarossa.

[LoneRunner]

I said this in the main forum thread about trivial penalties if the UK attacks Japan early like they did, but a quick Sealion could have reaped many benefits, taking the heat off of both of Germany's allies. Yeah would have cost several hundred MPPs to operate air and key land units west, and would have had to have stalemated Russia while the UK home islands were conquered, but you did have time to reverse course before comitting everything to Barbarossa.

Good point Elessar. Would be interesting to know how many UK land units defended the home island in Spring 41. Couldn't have been much because UK was spending masses of MMPs on amphibious transports. The Royal Navy was definitely absent. The entire UK fleet was either in the Pacific or Barents Sea.

Sealion would have been tough. I didn't have amphibious tech and only two para units. Critical to capture a port on the initial invasion. A bit risky, but doable.

Attack Russia at the same time. Maybe pull 3 tanks off the Russian front for the England invasion. And 3 or 4 armies. Already had a mech and 2 armies in Finland. Wow, my main Russian assault would have been thin.

Two-front war. Would have been a damn exciting. Yeah. In retrospect I wish I had done that.