Iran Strike, 2022 (Updated 2-2-2022)

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Kushan04
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Iran Strike, 2022 (Updated 2-2-2022)

Post by Kushan04 »

In May 2022 Iran announced it would not sign any international agreement that limits its nuclear program and that it would begin developing nuclear weapons. Across the middle east contingency plans for such an event were about to be put into action.

My first scenario of the new year! Way back in 2015 I did a scenario on a hypothetical US / allied strike on Iran nuclear program for a live stream. It wasn't very good, mostly because I was still a new scenario designer at the time and I've always wanted to update it. With all the talk lately about a possible Israeli strike on Iran I decided to do so.

This scenario is designed as a sandbox to see what an Israeli, US, or combined strike on Iran might look like. As such, it is up to you the player to determine what type and how many aircraft to use, what weapons to arm them with, and what nuclear sites to target. I've provided a special action to instantly ready all of your aircraft so you don't have to fire speed through aircraft readying.

This is meant to be a limited strike against the Iranian nuclear program, it is not meant as a general air campaign as seen in Desert Storm or in other conflicts since. You will not get points for damaging or destroying units not related to this objective.

This scenario makes heavy use of lua randomization for overflight requests, basing rights, etc. It’s possible to remove the randomization by using the “Remove Randomization” special action. This will give any randomized action a 100% chance of executing.

Update 2/2/2022:
• Fixed the Iran_UnitDamaged/Destroyed scripts.

Update 2/1/2022:
• Fix: Iranian aircraft are no longer set to autodetectable.
• Fix: Turned on collective responsibility for all sides.
• Fix: Temporarily replaced Talash SAMs with HQ-9Bs.
• Fix: PlayerSide scoring script. Player will not start losing points for fighters until losing more then 5 aircraft. Losing support aicraft (AEW, tankers, etc.) will always have a point loss. Point losses will double after losing more then 10 aircraft.

Update 1/27/2022:
• Expanded Iranian IADS using the SAM Overview from 2013 and current Google Earth imagery.
• Added random AD to some existing but empty SAM sites. Random AD has a 70% chance of being set to autodetectable.
• Cleaned up various scripts and special action descriptions.
• Minor scoring adjustments.
• Changed some special actions dealing with scenario setup to only be available when a scenario is loaded. Once the scenario starts they will be turned off
• Added new Special Action: USN Carrier Rotation. This action will swap the HST CSG for the Lincoln CSG.
• Added new Special Action: Upgrade Iranian Air Force [Option 1]. This action has a modest chance to replace Iranian F-4s and MiG-29s to Su-30s, Su-35s, or J-10s. This is done on a squadron by squadron basis.
• Added new Special Action: Upgrade Iranian Air Force [Option 2]. Same as option a, but a higher chance of replacing the F-4s and MiG-29s. In addition, Iranian F-14s have a high chance to be replaced with either F-14E Advanced Super Tomcat-21s (Yes, they do get AIM-120Ds and AIM-152s!) or Su-57 Felons.
• Added new Special Action: Iran Strike, 2025. Translates the scenario to 2025.

Have fun and I look forward to comments and critiques.
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BeirutDude
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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by BeirutDude »

I'll take a look!
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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by BDukes »

Pretty sure not all lua code fired. 0 losses for me and some successful runs.

My strategy was use the drones to pave the way. Sweep with F-35's and F-15C's. Bang away at the airdefenses with Delilah's and Rampages and Bomb with F-35, F-15I and F-16. Used my Jerichos to shwack air defense radars and SA-5.

Never saw any defense fires or advanced SAMS. Pretty much wiped the fighter cover away.

Bunch of saves uploaded so you can see what was going on
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Kushan04
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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by Kushan04 »

ORIGINAL: BDukes

Pretty sure not all lua code fired. 0 losses for me and some successful runs.

My strategy was use the drones to pave the way. Sweep with F-35's and F-15C's. Bang away at the airdefenses with Delilah's and Rampages and Bomb with F-35, F-15I and F-16. Used my Jerichos to shwack air defense radars and SA-5.

Never saw any defense fires or advanced SAMS. Pretty much wiped the fighter cover away.

Bunch of saves uploaded so you can see what was going on

Thanks Myk. I already figured out part of the problem, the exclusion zone around Iran is turned off. Oops...

I'll take a look at the saves later tonight.
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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by Kushan04 »

Posted a small update that has the Iran Exclusion Zone turned on. This should cause the Iranian SAMS to engage appropriately.
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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by BDukes »

Thanks will look at in next couple days. Cool scenario!

Mike
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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by Kushan04 »

Posted another small update with some additional changes from my livestream last night. Overall I'm really happy with where things are at.

I've decided to add a special action that will uparm Iran. My plan is to replace the F-4s with export Su-27s or Su-35s, and maybe replace the F-14s with AST-21s (To represent some homebrew upgrade to the F-14 fleet). I might also add in some additional SHORAD, probably SA-17s or equivalent. Might be some other things as well. This should be both a reasonable upgrade and difficulty increase.
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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by BDukes »

Just ran in player mode Israeli side. All loadouts are maintenance so can't change them. All but the two top lua scripts fail. Probably an errant line in the one file. Just checked same issue with second side. Sorry about that. Scenario is really cool and look forward to the end product[:)]



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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by SunlitZelkova »

Hi,

Some video was released a couple weeks ago showing Iran launching ballistic missiles at what appeared to be a mockup of the Dimona reactor in Israel- https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 021-12-24/

How far you want to widen the scope of the scenario is up to you, but striking missiles if they are detected, and the launch against Israel's nuclear program and associated ABM engagements, might be something to add.

Some issues I will note-

1. It is unknown just how fast Iran might decide to retaliate

2. I'm not sure just how easy it is detect ballistic missile launches by other means, i.e. SIGINT, HUMINT, cyber intelligence, etc. That would be a factor to consider in giving the player the opportunity to pre-empt a launch without having to rely on aircraft to find them.
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Kushan04
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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by Kushan04 »

ORIGINAL: BDukes
Just ran in player mode Israeli side. All loadouts are maintenance so can't change them. All but the two top lua scripts fail. Probably an errant line in the one file. Just checked same issue with second side. Sorry about that. Scenario is really cool and look forward to the end product[:)]

Thanks for catching that. Should be fixed now. Uploaded a new version to the first post.

Sorry I missed this one, stupid mistake on my part, and a reminder that I should make sure I test outside the editor.
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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by Kushan04 »

ORIGINAL: SunlitZelkova

Hi,

Some video was released a couple weeks ago showing Iran launching ballistic missiles at what appeared to be a mockup of the Dimona reactor in Israel- https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 021-12-24/

How far you want to widen the scope of the scenario is up to you, but striking missiles if they are detected, and the launch against Israel's nuclear program and associated ABM engagements, might be something to add.

Some issues I will note-

1. It is unknown just how fast Iran might decide to retaliate

2. I'm not sure just how easy it is detect ballistic missile launches by other means, i.e. SIGINT, HUMINT, cyber intelligence, etc. That would be a factor to consider in giving the player the opportunity to pre-empt a launch without having to rely on aircraft to find them.

I saw the video. I'd already thought about that before the video was released and decided not to include any Iranian counterattack. One, its not a hat that I want to player to wear. Second, from a gameplay perspective; it would be a hands off ABM engagement with little to no interaction by the player. I've thought about adding the Iranian missiles bases as potential targets (mostly for the US or US/Israel strike options) but its a really slippery slope. Do stuff like that enough and the scenario becomes bloated and doesn't resemble what it was meant to be.

1) In my amateur opinion, the missiles would be falling while the strike force was on its way home.

2) HUMINT, SIGINT, and Cyber play very little role in an ABM engagement. They may play a role in locating mobile launchers, but very little in the missile engagement itself. The ABM kill chain is simply too fast for them to contribute. Warning would be via ABM radars. Israel has several, plus they are connected into the US ABM warning system in the Middle East. US has a THAAD radar in the Negev, and used to have one in Qatar as well.
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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by BDukes »

ORIGINAL: Kushan04
ORIGINAL: BDukes
Just ran in player mode Israeli side. All loadouts are maintenance so can't change them. All but the two top lua scripts fail. Probably an errant line in the one file. Just checked same issue with second side. Sorry about that. Scenario is really cool and look forward to the end product[:)]

Thanks for catching that. Should be fixed now. Uploaded a new version to the first post.

Sorry I missed this one, stupid mistake on my part, and a reminder that I should make sure I test outside the editor.

No worries. Just started from the Israeli side and looks good. Drones up:)

Didn't get overflight of Jordan but got Turkey. This is going to be interesting[:)]

Mike
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BDukes
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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by BDukes »

So far so good.

Can you widen the gap between Egypt and Jordan? It is just narrow enough to make the nav code go bonkshit with 4 ship flight groups.

If anybody cares you didn't stick to strict national borders send them my way.

Mike

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BDukes
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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by BDukes »

A fantastic day of gaming. Thanks, Kushan!

Lost because I hit the reactor and a bunch of things I shouldn't have. Before that I was golden. Really good scenario! I did give Nantanz and Arak the business.

I don't really think the Israeli side has anything that can jam western radars but they should be able to.

Going to add some of the newer Iranian systems or SA-15s?

I did a lot of fighting with the interface-that is not you. I think I'll drop the Jordanian no fly zone next go. F-16's had to be watched as a lot of edge-line ranges. Biggest issue was the initial squeeze but then everything wanted to RTB through Syria. Didn't have the mental toughness to wrangle that so quit after everybody that could, fired and RTB'd.
SIDE: Israel
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
2x F-15A Eagle [Baz]
1x F-15C Eagle [Akef-2000]
6x F-15I Eagle [Raam]
2x F-16I Falcon [Sufa]


EXPENDITURES:
------------------
92x AIM-120C-7 AMRAAM P3I.3
24x Delilah-AL
6x ELL-8270
16x GBU-28C/B Deep Throat LGB/GPS [BLU-122/B]
24x GBU-39/B SDB
12x GBU-54(V)1/B LJDAM [MPR-500 Penetrator]
41x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
24x Jericho 3 [1000kg HE Conventional]
24x Jericho 3 [1000kg HE Conventional] RV
1x Python 5
40x Rampage
12x SPICE 2000 GPS/EO [Mk84]



SIDE: Iran
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
3x Building (Bar Lock C [P-37]) [Cargo]
3x Building (Guard post)
13x Building (Large)
22x Building (Medium)
34x Building (Small)
3x Building (Square Pair [5N62]) [Cargo]
6x Building (Watch Tower)
2x Diesel (40k Liter Tank)
22x F-14A Tomcat [F-14AM]
8x F-4E Phantom II
10x HQ-2b Guideline Single Rail [Cargo]
22x M192 I-HAWK [Cargo]
8x MiG-29 Fulcrum A
6x Misagh-2 MANPADS [Cargo]
1x Radar (Cheese Board [96L6E])
1x Radar (China JY-14 Great Wall)
8x SA-20b Gargoyle [5P85SE] TEL [Cargo]
4x SA-5c Gammon Single Rail [Cargo]
8x Structure (Pipeline - Overhead)
1x Structure (Tunnel Entrance)
2x Underground Hardened Bunker (C3M)
7x Vehicle (AN/MPQ-46 HPI) [Cargo]
4x Vehicle (AN/MPQ-48 CWAR) [Cargo]
4x Vehicle (AN/MPQ-50 PAR) [Cargo]
3x Vehicle (AN/MPQ-51 ROR) [Cargo]
2x Vehicle (Cheese Board [96L6E]) [Cargo]
2x Vehicle (Chop Rest) [Cargo]
2x Vehicle (Gin Sling B [ZD-2(B)]) [Cargo]
2x Vehicle (Tombstone [30N6E]) [Cargo]


EXPENDITURES:
------------------
2x 370 USG Drop Tank
1x 600 USG Drop Tank
2x AA-10 Alamo A [R-27R, MR TSARH]
23x AIM-54A Phoenix [Fakour-90 Mod]
6x AIM-7E2 Sparrow III
2x AIM-7E4 Sparrow III
66x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
1x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
28x MIM-23B I-HAWK
62x SA-20b Gargoyle [48N6E2]



SIDE: Task Force 50
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------


EXPENDITURES:
------------------



SIDE: United States / Israel
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------


EXPENDITURES:
------------------



SIDE: United States
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------


EXPENDITURES:
------------------



SIDE: Syria
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------


EXPENDITURES:
------------------


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Kushan04
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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by Kushan04 »

ORIGINAL: BDukes
Can you widen the gap between Egypt and Jordan? It is just narrow enough to make the nav code go bonkshit with 4 ship flight groups.

Done. Will upload the new version later tonight or tomorrow.
ORIGINAL: BDukes

A fantastic day of gaming. Thanks, Kushan!

Lost because I hit the reactor and a bunch of things I shouldn't have. Before that I was golden. Really good scenario! I did give Nantanz and Arak the business.

I don't really think the Israeli side has anything that can jam western radars but they should be able to.

Going to add some of the newer Iranian systems or SA-15s?

I did a lot of fighting with the interface-that is not you. I think I'll drop the Jordanian no fly zone next go. F-16's had to be watched as a lot of edge-line ranges. Biggest issue was the initial squeeze but then everything wanted to RTB through Syria. Didn't have the mental toughness to wrangle that so quit after everybody that could, fired and RTB'd.

You're welcome. Glad you enjoyed it!

Can the Skyshield OECM Pod not jam the western radars?

Haven't decided yet. Need to add the newer Iranian systems to the DB before I can use them.

Scenario can be tough as the Israelis. You don't have a lot of refueling capacity and the F-16 doesn't have the longest legs in the world. When I first played it on my stream in Dec, I barely managed to get my whole strike force home. Refueled the returning fighters just enough to get them home, then unassigned them from the refueling. Like you said takes a lot of wrangling. It's not helped that aircraft that are RTB want to refuel to max even though they don't need it all to make it back to base.
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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by BDukes »

ORIGINAL: Kushan04

Can the Skyshield OECM Pod not jam the western radars?

They do. [8D]Just checked. It doesn't jam Chinese surveillance radars and is only in the F-16 in a HARM A configuration. The A variant of Harms is probably thirty years old which is why I blew it off. I doubt they're still around or have been replaced. I used the Rampages for SEAD. I'll poke around to see if that pod is even still around.[:)] Do whatever you want though, this is just me giving feedback.

Speaking of, I scaled back on Delilah's last run. Israel seems to fire tons of these IRL, but honestly, they're not really useful in CMO against defended targets. That being said I haven't found any solid reasons as to why they're so effective in real life but suspect jamming or taking advantage of really low guided flight paths.
Scenario can be tough as the Israelis. You don't have a lot of refueling capacity and the F-16 doesn't have the longest legs in the world. When I first played it on my stream in Dec, I barely managed to get my whole strike force home. Refueled the returning fighters just enough to get them home, then unassigned them from the refueling. Like you said takes a lot of wrangling. It's not helped that aircraft that are RTB want to refuel to max even though they don't need it all to make it back to base.

True to real life I think! I do think CMO-wise it's best to take the US tanking.

Mike

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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by BDukes »

Looks like Skyshield is still around. Centerline pod and looks like carried with bombs on F-16 1-18 Ghz so L,S,C,X, Ku Looks like two variants one small, one large (guessing we won't know the power difference ever). Will add to DB post.

https://www.rafael.co.il/wp-content/upl ... Shield.pdf

Mike
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Kushan04
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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by Kushan04 »

Posted a new version with the tweaked NFZ around the Sinai. I didn't encounter any issues in my testing but let me know if there still path finding issues.
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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by BDukes »

ORIGINAL: Kushan04

Posted a new version with the tweaked NFZ around the Sinai. I didn't encounter any issues in my testing but let me know if there still path finding issues.

Thanks and will do.

I want to give the Israelis another go and see if my drone plan works. I keep mucking up the timing so my strike aircraft blow right by them. Might have to do the math instead of trying to guess

Looking forward to giving the US side a go as well!

Mike


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RE: New Scenario for Testing - Iran Strike, 2022 (1-3-2022)

Post by Kushan04 »

Just posted v2. Barring any fixes this version will be final.

Link in the first post has been updated.

Changes include:
• Expanded Iranian IADS using the SAM Overview from 2013 and current Google Earth imagery.
• Added random AD to some existing but empty SAM sites. Random AD has a 70% chance of being set to autodetectable.
• Cleaned up various scripts and special action descriptions.
• Minor scoring adjustments.
• Changed some special actions dealing with scenario setup to only be available when a scenario is loaded. Once the scenario starts they will be turned off
• Added new Special Action: USN Carrier Rotation. This action will swap the HST CSG for the Lincoln CSG.
• Added new Special Action: Upgrade Iranian Air Force [Option 1]. This action has a modest chance to replace Iranian F-4s and MiG-29s to Su-30s, Su-35s, or J-10s. This is done on a squadron by squadron basis.
• Added new Special Action: Upgrade Iranian Air Force [Option 2]. Same as option 1, but a higher chance of replacing the F-4s and MiG-29s. In addition, Iranian F-14s have a high chance to be replaced with either F-14E Advanced Super Tomcat-21s (Yes, they do get AIM-120Ds and AIM-152s!) or Su-57 Felons.
• Added new Special Action: Iran Strike, 2025. Translates the scenario to 2025.
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