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jbyng
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RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by jbyng »

I'm wondering if these recent Taiwanese ADIZ incursions are made up of legitimate strike packages, or just a collection of aircraft. I saw these included in the Oct 18 flight (no further info on which variants):
34 J-16 (fighter)
12 H-6 (bomber)
2 Su-30 (fighter)
2 Yun-8 (there's about a hundred variants, including ASW and an airborne command post)
2 KJ-500 (AWACS)

It certainly looks legit to me, but for any PLAAF experts out there, please weigh in on composition, balance, missing elements, etc. Thanks!
WG
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RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by WG »

Daniel Larison has written an interesting column about the incursion. I am not an expert, so I am interested to hear what other people say:
Kevin Baron makes some wild and irresponsible claims in response to news that China has flown dozens of military aircraft through one corner of Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ):
China sends 52 warplanes over Taiwan. Xi is seriously poking at Biden and testing the United States response. Putin walked into Ukraine because the West wasn’t going to fight for it. Will Xi be allowed to do the same?

Baron either misunderstands or mischaracterizes what is happening, and then he makes an even more ridiculous leap by comparing these flights to Russian military intervention in Ukraine. That would be bad enough if he were just some rando on Twitter, but he is the executive editor of Defense One, a fairly important news site on military matters and national security. If someone in his position is out there making this kind of mistake, it doesn’t bode well for having a sane debate over anything related to Taiwan.

To be clear, Chinese forces have not entered Taiwanese airspace, much less flown “over” Taiwan. If the PLAAF started flying over Taiwan, that would indeed be provocative and dangerous, but nothing like this has happened. Some China hawks seem so eager to sound the alarm over the smallest thing that one can’t help but think that they are itching for an excuse for conflict.

Mike Black tells everyone to calm down:
"The PLA conducts routine training in international airspace a few hundred miles off its coast" doesn't have the same breathless ring to it but is a more accurate description of what's actually happening.

To put all this in perspective, we need to remember that China has its own ADIZ, and the U.S. sends bombers into that area and has been doing so for years. When U.S. planes enter this zone, they are not entering Chinese airspace, and they certainly aren’t flying over China. These flights are obviously not welcomed by the Chinese government, and they are meant to send a message to Beijing, but they are not actually threatening anything. So when Chinese planes travel through one corner of Taiwan’s ADIZ, we should not panic and declare that China is “seriously poking at Biden.” The Biden administration criticized the flights this week, and that is all that they needed to do.
Hongjian
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RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by Hongjian »

ORIGINAL: jbyng

I'm wondering if these recent Taiwanese ADIZ incursions are made up of legitimate strike packages, or just a collection of aircraft. I saw these included in the Oct 18 flight (no further info on which variants):
34 J-16 (fighter)
12 H-6 (bomber)
2 Su-30 (fighter)
2 Yun-8 (there's about a hundred variants, including ASW and an airborne command post)
2 KJ-500 (AWACS)

It certainly looks legit to me, but for any PLAAF experts out there, please weigh in on composition, balance, missing elements, etc. Thanks!

Looks about right. Y-8 were ASW and ELINT, but in a strike, they would replace the ASW variants with stand-off jammers.

The J-16s and Su-30s are multirole here, but would probably first be used for CAP duties equipped with PL-15s (PL-12 for the older Su-30s). H-6 bombers would be the main strike package for Taiwan but if they had CJ-10s for that strike, they wouldnt need to go too far anway due to the range, so I guess this was just signaling.
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Blast33
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RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by Blast33 »

"A U.S. Air Force MC-130J Commando II with the 352d Special Operations Wing approaches a highway landing zone [...] #Gotland #Brorakan " U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Westin Warburton.

Escorted by two JAS 39 Gripen and accompanied by a TP 84 (Swedish C-130H), the MC-130J arrives over Gotland for the highway landing. After the road landing, the MC-130J, belonging to the 67th Special Operation Squadron of the 352d Special Operations Group (352 SOG) from RAF Mildenhall, UK, unloaded an M142 HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System).

And perhaps even more interesting, the #HIMARS was then loaded onto a Swedish C-130H Hercules (local designation TP 84) and moved to another location in Sweden. Now we know where the National Guard #Himars went: it flew north and fired a bunch of rockets in #Vidsel in northernmost Sweden. That's #StrategicMobility!

To get the perspective, that's a 1,100 km+ road trip, translating into a 15 hour drive + ferry ride at the best of times. Having the ability to fly the #Himars where you want and then fire off e.g. the upcoming #PrSM with 500+ km range is huge on today's dispersed battlefield.
https://twitter.com/CorporalFrisk
https://theaviationist.com/2021/10/24/mc-130j-himars-gotland/
https://twitter.com/GripenNews/status/1452358668406693889

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BeirutDude
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RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by BeirutDude »

ORIGINAL: Hongjian

ORIGINAL: jbyng

I'm wondering if these recent Taiwanese ADIZ incursions are made up of legitimate strike packages, or just a collection of aircraft. I saw these included in the Oct 18 flight (no further info on which variants):
34 J-16 (fighter)
12 H-6 (bomber)
2 Su-30 (fighter)
2 Yun-8 (there's about a hundred variants, including ASW and an airborne command post)
2 KJ-500 (AWACS)

It certainly looks legit to me, but for any PLAAF experts out there, please weigh in on composition, balance, missing elements, etc. Thanks!

Looks about right. Y-8 were ASW and ELINT, but in a strike, they would replace the ASW variants with stand-off jammers.

The J-16s and Su-30s are multirole here, but would probably first be used for CAP duties equipped with PL-15s (PL-12 for the older Su-30s). H-6 bombers would be the main strike package for Taiwan but if they had CJ-10s for that strike, they wouldnt need to go too far anway due to the range, so I guess this was just signaling.

Two other important considerations are...

1. Timing vs. US actions/statements that the PRC wishes to show displeasure at.
2. Most Americans would get the idea from American media that the PLAAF aircraft are flying in the Taiwan Straits itself, but actually the ADIZ "Challenges" are in the SWrn portion of the ADIZ, well away from Taiwan proper near Pratas Island (a small atoll) that when you look at your Command map, looks like a smudge on your screen!!!!!
"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985

I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!
maverick3320
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Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:12 pm

RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by maverick3320 »

ORIGINAL: Dysta
ORIGINAL: MaxDemian

Why should China feel the need to answer to the US exit from the INF? China was never a INF signatory to begin with, and the continued adherence to the INF was to a great disadvantage for the US.
On the contrary, I think it’s what China wanted. US would never want to prove the rival’s weapons are effective by copying theirs (such as DF-21D/26, nobody is copying them so to keep it ‘theoretically useless’ until war happens), so they will innovate and introduce new weapon systems to deter against Chinese/Russian long range missiles and other high-tech weapons. What Russia and China can simply do is copying their new weapon concepts without unveiling it’s actual effectiveness, to keep on the guess games to US.

In the end it’s the current ammunition that can deliver to the enemy’s soil have the final say, hence the proliferation of ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones.

Well that, and honestly, what would be the point of the US copying the DF series? I suppose it would be kind of nice, but it's not like China has a bunch of CVBGs buzzing around off the west coast.
Boagrius
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RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by Boagrius »

I think you could argue that LRHW and OpFires are on track to fill the niche occupied by the DF series of BMs. The U.S is simply skipping the ballistic RV part and going straight to HGVs, or so it would seem.
Hongjian
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RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by Hongjian »

J-31 Carrier Variant/J-35 took off for its maiden flight!
Visible: Dual frontwheel, catapult latch, folding wing and "fatter" spine. Seriously, what's it with naval variants being fatter?

https://twitter.com/RupprechtDeino/stat ... 4350936065
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Also, the KJ-600 carrier AEW&C has shown itself again.

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Ah yeah, forgot to post this: J-20S has also appeared; the world's first twin-seat stealth fighter. This gives quite a boon to the PLAAF "Loyal Wingman"-project.

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Footage:
https://twitter.com/louischeung_hk/stat ... 9162778625

What a day. Rumor has it that there will be another surprise by the end of the year. 2021 has been a fruitful year so far for PLA Watching.
AndrewNguyen1984
Posts: 49
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:37 am

RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by AndrewNguyen1984 »

If the Chinese are able to block off this potential avenue then they truly will have control of the Pacific and thus the world economy. And unfortunately with the state of our own country now...I have no confidence: https://www.newsweek.com/chinas-submarine-fleet-catching-us-causing-partners-panic-1643709
thewood1
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Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2005 6:24 pm

RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by thewood1 »

They can't block off any part of the Pacific. Their own economy will fail and collapse. Have you even looked at any of the data?
You are like puss filled boil on nice of ass of bikini model. You are nasty to everybody but then try to sweeten things up with a nice post somewhere else. That's nice but you're still a boil on a beautiful thing! - BDukes
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Dysta
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RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by Dysta »

And as if this third surprise is not enough ... there are even more surprises: Altogether two WS-20 powered Y-20B are visible together with several more regular Y-20A transports and Y-20U tanker.
https://twitter.com/RupprechtDeino/stat ... 3049265161
And right after the two surprises J-20B & J-35 (3) last week, here is the next one: The first clear image of the two so far known KJ-600 prototypes.

One is spotting the now common green primer and the other one is already painted in PLAN grey.
https://twitter.com/RupprechtDeino/stat ... 3179147266

Well, that sounds like China is already bankrupt several times over because of all the aircraft developments, and the associations to the future CATOBAR ops for a whole decade. The emptied-pocket China is still China after all.
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BeirutDude
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RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by BeirutDude »

ORIGINAL: thewood1

They can't block off any part of the Pacific. Their own economy will fail and collapse. Have you even looked at any of the data?

I stopped engaging. He has his view and nothing anyone says is going to change his mind. To sum his view up, the PRC are omnipotent supermen and the Western powers are just stupid morons who simply have no ideas and can't get out of their own way! Waste of electrons to speak reason to someone who won't listen.
"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985

I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!
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BeirutDude
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RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by BeirutDude »

Stupid Americans! Do they not know it it's totally hopeless and the evil empire is about to run us over???? [:D] [:)]

OK all joking aside this looks like a great force multiplier at low cost...

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your ... munitions/
"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985

I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!
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BeirutDude
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Location: Jacksonville, FL, USA

RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by BeirutDude »

No real surprise here. There a a lot of "unused/Reserve" air bases near Taiwan.

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2021/10 ... erflights/
"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985

I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!
Hongjian
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RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by Hongjian »

Some semi-PLA-related news that adds to the flurry of the recent unveils: A possible spillover technology from the PLAN Railgun project (that has been very quiet in the recent years)

An EM mortar that launches firefighting payloads:
Source is this Chinese state media video showcasting the advanced equipment under trial for Chinese firefighters; among them exoskeletons and this EM launcher

https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1iq4y1G7ks
at around 22:40

Obviously, this project makes one remember the Chinese Navy Rear Admiral Ma Weiming aka. The Mad Scientist, who is considered the father of Chinese EMALS onboard the 003 carrier and oversaw the development of all EM related equipment and weaponry. He proposed such EM launchers as being the basis for all future Chinese weapons, including warship weaponry replacing VLS cells and chemical propellants. In his conception; he dreams of an "All Electric Battleship" that uses EM launchers to launch all sorts of munuitions and is equipped with laser, railgun and microwave CIWS for self defense and ASW (dont as me how). Now this is a civilian toy, but it makes one wonder what the military is currently testing.

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Hongjian
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RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by Hongjian »

Maybe its time for me to stop browsing the internet. At this rate, this is never going to stop.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... t-airfield

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AndrewNguyen1984
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RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by AndrewNguyen1984 »

ORIGINAL: thewood1

They can't block off any part of the Pacific. Their own economy will fail and collapse. Have you even looked at any of the data?


What I meant is that the submarine force would have been our best chance if things do tragically go south with the People's Republic of China. Now that China is trying to close that gap...
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kevinkins
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RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by kevinkins »

I wonder which people would starve faster during a blockade and then attack each other from within over missing calories? Seems to me the North American continent can feed itself far better than China. Anyway, let's move on to another region:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... ar-AAQ8CdO
“The study of history lies at the foundation of all sound military conclusions and practice.”
― Alfred Thayer Mahan

maverick3320
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RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by maverick3320 »

ORIGINAL: BeirutDude
ORIGINAL: thewood1

They can't block off any part of the Pacific. Their own economy will fail and collapse. Have you even looked at any of the data?

I stopped engaging. He has his view and nothing anyone says is going to change his mind. To sum his view up, the PRC are omnipotent supermen and the Western powers are just stupid morons who simply have no ideas and can't get out of their own way! Waste of electrons to speak reason to someone who won't listen.

Yeah, same here. it's a really weird place for someone to continue to post about how great China is and how the sky is falling in the US. It's almost like if a country hired people to talk about how great they were, and how weak other countries were on the internet. I'm sure no country would ever be that insecure, though.
Boagrius
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RE: Re: Naval and Defence News

Post by Boagrius »

ORIGINAL: maverick3320
Yeah, same here. it's a really weird place for someone to continue to post about how great China is and how the sky is falling in the US. It's almost like if a country hired people to talk about how great they were, and how weak other countries were on the internet. I'm sure no country would ever be that insecure, though.
My whatever do you mean!? Nothing solves the west's geopolitical challenges like a steady diet of fear, uncertainty and doubt. [;)]
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