Finland and Karelian Isthmus - Decision 401

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ThunderLizard11
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Finland and Karelian Isthmus - Decision 401

Post by ThunderLizard11 »

What's the best path for Allies in PBEM match? If you accept, you get some land you don't need or can't keep and piss off Finland so they are more likely to join Axis but will start with weaker units. This also allows option of Anglo-French expedition which costs points but could keep Finland out of war at the start.
ThunderLizard11
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RE: Finland and Karelian Isthmus - Decision 401

Post by ThunderLizard11 »

No one has any thoughts on this event?
Mithrilotter
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RE: Finland and Karelian Isthmus - Decision 401

Post by Mithrilotter »

I understand that your question was for PBEM. However against the AI, Norway going Allied is a big deal. Either the Axis player or the Axis AI must spend significant diplomacy MPP's to get Finland back. In my game against the Allied AI, I had to spend 150 MPP's as Germany and 100 MPP's as Italy to get Finland in the war in mid-1943. That is a lot of Finnish convoy MPP's lost. I don't know if the Allied AI tried to block with counter diplomacy.

Besides, I like getting two discounted Allied Special Forces units out of the deal, although the French one rarely ever converts to Free French (only 20% chance).

On the other hand as Allied, having an Allied leaning Finland was a nice relief for the Soviet defense. Units that I would normally have put on the Finnish border, I could now put in other threatened places. I consider a successful Anglo-French expedition to be a pro-Allied event.

Oddly, the Anglo-French expedition has succeeded five times in a row in my games vs. the AI as both Allied and Axis. It is only supposed to be 50% successful, if the Allied AI chooses to do it which it won't choose every time. I suppose that I have have either very bad or very good luck in this decision event, depending on which side I was playing.
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RE: Finland and Karelian Isthmus - Decision 401

Post by OldCrowBalthazor »

ORIGINAL: ThunderLizard2

No one has any thoughts on this event?

Hmmm..well in a recent WiE MP I choose the Allied Intervention to help the Finns..(on a whim). It ended in disaster for a few reasons. First...and majorly, it depressed the Soviet Unions mobilization dramatically. (Stalin was pissed at Winston haha).

Secondly...with a 50/50 outcome..of course the Finns lost on that roll. On top of that, when the time came to choose whether I wanted to deploy the two SF's , (one UK and one French) at Narvik or in England..I had to pick England because my Carriers and other ships that I needed to be close to that Norwegian port where out of position to support the landing due to aggressive German U-boats and airpower.

So..I got to keep the UK SF....and sadly the French SF disappeared after France's surrender. (20% chance of Free) missed that roll too. :)

The worst effect by far in WiE was the depression of the Soviets mobilization...and hence its turn by turn MMP generation...super bad thing when trying to prepare for Barbarossa.

In my first MP as Allied in WaW...when this decision came up...I unflinchingly picked NO. I am assuming of course that this event decision in WaW mirrors how it is in WiE...In this WaW match..which is still ongoing, my Soviets generated halfway decent income...before the next phase of the war when Hitler came knocking.

I also curious to hear what the ramifications and experiences of a Yes or No for DEC 401 in WaW by others.
calcwerc
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RE: Finland and Karelian Isthmus - Decision 401

Post by calcwerc »

I think it is better not to take it against strong opponent. If Axis player tries to keep Soviet war readiness down, for instance by not taking Denmark, Netherlands, Greece etc., in combination with taking this event you get a very bad preparation for Barbarossa. Every MP is important for the Russians in those first years, and taking this event certainly no help
ThunderLizard11
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RE: Finland and Karelian Isthmus - Decision 401

Post by ThunderLizard11 »

ORIGINAL: calcwerc

I think it is better not to take it against strong opponent. If Axis player tries to keep Soviet war readiness down, for instance by not taking Denmark, Netherlands, Greece etc., in combination with taking this event you get a very bad preparation for Barbarossa. Every MP is important for the Russians in those first years, and taking this event certainly no help

What is impact of Denmark and Netherlands on Soviet mobilization?
pjg100
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RE: Finland and Karelian Isthmus - Decision 401

Post by pjg100 »

2-4%, like most other countries, I believe.
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ElvisJJonesRambo
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RE: Finland and Karelian Isthmus - Decision 401

Post by ElvisJJonesRambo »

This is any interesting one. Top players tend to lean aggressive against Finland, enact the measure.
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RE: Finland and Karelian Isthmus - Decision 401

Post by Cpuncher »

The safer choice is probably not to attack Finland, especially if your opponent is top dog.

Assuming the gentleman's agreement of no attack Russia in 40, choosing to attack Finland will cost Russia about 200 MPPs due to demobilization before Barbarossa if Allied fail their intervention, or 600 MPPs if they succeed. 600 will be too much to bear, and make Russia extremely ill prepared.

The optimal outcome might be for the Allied to fail their intervention. Be sure to launch both Special Forces on long range amphibious immediately (Please, please, don't do Narvik), and concentrate all your ships for a raid of the Baltic Sea. On the next turn you can land 1 SF at (97,32), (99, 30) or Copenhagen, send in all your ships to destroy the Kriegsmarine, and land the other SF at a target of your choice, preferably Stettin, which alone could cost the Germans 150ish MPPs in convoy income before Stettin could be recovered and repaired, and all German MPPs are worth double compared to the Allies.

To defend against this, the Germans need to garrison all the above places, plus Hamburg. That's 4 or 5 corps away from the French front. Danzig and Konigsberg should be already garrisoned by the 2 units within 6 hexes of Warsaw.

Now the best Axis player should not take Denmark. That way it only needs 1 corps at (97, 32) and 1 at Hamburg. This will hurt Germans MPP income, but better than the alternative. Allies can't afford to DOW Denmark until US is in the war.

I can testify that for my 10ish opponents played Axis, everyone took Denmark, yet only 1 player garrisoned those places (there is a reason someone is a better player). All the other players left places wide open and most of them pretty much threw in the towel after I landed the SFs and mauled the Kriegsmarine, which caused me to have almost no experience in fighting as Allies into 41 and beyond...

So my final take, if your opponent is elite, don't attack Finland, to risk Allied succeeding in the intervention. Otherwise take the chances with the 2 SFs, which will be more fun.

At this time I think it's still beneficial to attack Russia in 40 should there be no prior agreement. If that's the case, choose to attack Finland. The demobilization cost will be much less here and the 2 SFs the Allied get can do something to slow the German effort in France, not to mention it forces Germany not taking Denmark thus hurting her MPPs income, both can help reduce the impact of an early Russia war. However, the Axis player may choose not to attack Russia early here if the Allied succeed in the intervention.

Finally I must congratulate the Devs in designing this DE. It gives you so much to think about, and what you choose is so intertwined with so many other things that may happen in the game...
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RE: Finland and Karelian Isthmus - Decision 401

Post by EarlyDoors »

interesting

there is one other variable to consider that i don't know how to quantify

if you don't attack Finland then I think USSR cannot prepare for winter warfare in 41...but i dont know what that does and how to measure it
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calcwerc
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RE: Finland and Karelian Isthmus - Decision 401

Post by calcwerc »

it is just slightly more expensive (75 MPP instead of 50 MPP if i recall right)
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RE: Finland and Karelian Isthmus - Decision 401

Post by Cpuncher »

Yes it just cost 25 MPP more.
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