OT: Corona virus

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Chickenboy
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Chickenboy »

ORIGINAL: DOCUP

I am curious about the comorbidities (other health issues ie respiratory issues, diabetes, cardiac, etc) of the patients that have past away? Did the patients that died get a pneumonia on top of the coronavirus?

Good post, DOCUP. Sounds like you know your way around hospital staffing and administration?

I have heard-anecdotally-that most of the mortality seems to be in older patients. I recall hearing a Chinese health official talk about a predominance of existing 'cardiovascular issues' in most of the mortality. But I'll be darned if I can find age-related risk ratios anywhere. Not sure how much verity I'd attach to the official CCP commentary, but I'm curious.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Ian R »

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

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MakeeLearn
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by MakeeLearn »

Published:February 20, 2020

"The age distribution of COVID-19 cases was skewed towards older age groups with a median age of 45 years (IQR 33–56) for patients who were alive or who had an unknown outcome at the time of reporting (figure 1). The median age of patients who had died at the time of reporting was 70 years (IQR 65–81).

Few patients (13 [3%]) were younger than 15 years. Adjustment for the age demographics of China confirmed a deficit of infections among children, with a RR below 0·5 in patients younger than 15 years (figure 1). The RR measure indicated a sharp increase in the likelihood of reported COVID-19 among people aged 30 years and older."



"Based on our small sample of patients with COVID-19, we note an intriguing age distribution, reminiscent of that of SARS, which warrants further epidemiological and serological studies. "

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/land ... 1/fulltext






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Erik Rutins
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Erik Rutins »

I think this is what you want:

The overall case-fatality rate (CFR) was 2.3% (1023 deaths among 44 672 confirmed cases). No deaths occurred in the group aged 9 years and younger, but cases in those aged 70 to 79 years had an 8.0% CFR and cases in those aged 80 years and older had a 14.8% CFR. No deaths were reported among mild and severe cases. The CFR was 49.0% among critical cases. CFR was elevated among those with preexisting comorbid conditions—10.5% for cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes, 6.3% for chronic respiratory disease, 6.0% for hypertension, and 5.6% for cancer. Among the 44 672 cases, a total of 1716 were health workers (3.8%), 1080 of whom were in Wuhan (63%). Overall, 14.8% of confirmed cases among health workers were classified as severe or critical and 5 deaths were observed.1

From this article:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2762130

We don't know the IFR, or fatality rate per infection, so the real rates are likely somewhat lower but this is the best data we have at this point.
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Footslogger
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Footslogger »

ORIGINAL: Kull

Assuming they can't put this genie back in the bottle, it's particularly worrying for this forum. Anecdotally, most of our membership appears to be in the riskier age category.

Edit: Get your daily updates here.

This is where I get my daily info:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3-E3K4v58o

Quite Interesting Really!



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MakeeLearn
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by MakeeLearn »

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

Asked at a press conference on February 4 what the current mortality rate (or case fatality rate, CFR) is, an official with China NHC said that [7]:

The formula they are using is: cumulative current total deaths / current confirmed cases. Therefore, as of 24:00 on Feb. 3, the formula used was 425/20,438.

Based on this figure, the national mortality rate to date was 2.1% of confirmed cases.

There might be mild cases and other cases not reported.

97% of the country's total deaths (414) were in the Hubei Province.

Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.

Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.

Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.

Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.

Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.

Most of the cases were still mild cases, therefore there was no need to panic.

Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHC official replied that it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent.

National mortality rate was basically stable, as of Feb. 4 at 2.1%, and it was 2.3% at the beginning of the epidemic, which can be seen as a slight decline.

Front the analysis of death cases, it emerged that the demographic profile was mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.

Elderly people with basic diseases, as long as they have pneumonia, were clinically a high-risk factor regardless of whether it is a coronavirus or not, and the case fatality rate was also very high, so it is not that the case fatality rate of pneumonia is high because of the infection with the new coronavirus. "This point must be explained to everyone," concluded the NHC official.[7]







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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Ian R »

Across the world, there have been about 81,310 confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) and 2,771 reported deaths. Of confirmed cases reported globally, the case fatality rate is approximately 3.4%. The case fatality rate in countries and regions outside mainland China is 1.4%

That is from today's update found here: https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-a ... alth-alert

There are now officially 23 cases in Oz - an 8th person from the Diamond Princess was diagnosed. However, 15 of the 23 have already recovered.
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Footslogger
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Footslogger »

ORIGINAL: Ian R
Across the world, there have been about 81,310 confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) and 2,771 reported deaths. Of confirmed cases reported globally, the case fatality rate is approximately 3.4%. The case fatality rate in countries and regions outside mainland China is 1.4%

That is from today's update found here: https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-a ... alth-alert

There are now officially 23 cases in Oz - an 8th person from the Diamond Princess was diagnosed. However, 15 of the 23 have already recovered.

Ian. How is Strawya? I know you Aussies don't say Australia.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Ian R »

It's a slightly humid 24C in Sydney, warmer inland, and a recent monsoonal deluge put out most of the fires.

I feel sorry for the 170 people who were on the Diamond Princess though, or at least the 162 that are still in quarantine in Darwin - it is the wet season up there, 30C and 80% humidity. 2 weeks locked up there would send most of us troppo.
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CaptBeefheart
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by CaptBeefheart »

My business is definitely suffering from this. Events have been cancelled and even the British Embassy pub is shut down for the time being, so you know it's serious (luckily I have a decent supply of whiskey at home, which may be the best thing to take on this microscopic critter). That said, here in Seoul the numbers are still not too bad. Night life has decreased, but the restaurants downtown are still full at lunch and I doubt Starbux has suffered much (there are more Starbucks here than any other city on the planet). Some large companies are having people work from home, but small ones like mine are plugging along. Another factor is schools are shut down for the time being. At some point, life will have to go on.

Due to a super spreader mixing it closely with other congregants at a holy roller cult church in Daegu and at a funeral nearby, about 80% of the country's cases are in the Daegu (fourth-largest city) and surrounding province area. The missus, who is a nurse practitioner, said they are asking for medical volunteers to go to that area to help. She said she would if she were still single and didn't have a kid (she's done missionary work in the past). At hospitals like hers they are screening people at the door: they'll ask about your symptoms and recent history and if you are suspect, you'll get a free test.

There are reports of restaurants denying foreigners like myself (which would be funny since I haven't been out of this country since last summer), but I have yet to see it. A lot of people wear masks, although I haven't succumbed to that. If I get any kind of symptoms, I'll put one on. At the men's room in my office building, which is shared with other companies, I see about 90% of the users wash their hands, up from about 25% pre-virus. My guess is the number of cold and normal flu cases has dropped in the country what with everyone so hygiene conscious all of a sudden.

Another upside is the air quality is better. We've had some very lousy air pollution in the last 10 years or so, and depending on who you believe, about 20-40% of that comes from China. Supposedly they are spewing a lot less filth across the Yellow Sea due to factory shutdowns.

Anyway, life goes on, although I'll definitely be taking an earnings hit this year. I don't think anyone I know will be picking up coronavirus, but you never know. Being smart, like not touching your face without having just washed your hands (something I've been doing for years), will go a long way.

Good luck to y'all.

Cheers,
CB
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MakeeLearn
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by MakeeLearn »

War by any other means.

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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Ian R »

This does not sound good:
C.D.C. Confirms First Possible Community Transmission of Coronavirus in U.S.
A case in California may be the first infection without a known link to travel abroad.

Roni Caryn Rabin
By Roni Caryn Rabin
Feb. 26, 2020
Updated 9:03 p.m. ET

A person in California who was not exposed to anyone known to be infected with the coronavirus, and had not traveled to countries in which the virus is circulating, has tested positive for the infection.

It may be the first case of community spread in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Wednesday.

“At this point, the patient’s exposure is unknown,” the C.D.C. statement said. “The case was detected through the U.S. public health system and picked up by astute clinicians.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/heal ... c-usa.html
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jeffk3510
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by jeffk3510 »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's hoping your friends are of the type on the left, rather than the right. [8D]

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I would let either one of those four sprinkle it on.

The guy on the right looks like a nice, trustworthy guy.
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jeffk3510
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by jeffk3510 »

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

My business is definitely suffering from this. Events have been cancelled and even the British Embassy pub is shut down for the time being, so you know it's serious (luckily I have a decent supply of whiskey at home, which may be the best thing to take on this microscopic critter). That said, here in Seoul the numbers are still not too bad. Night life has decreased, but the restaurants downtown are still full at lunch and I doubt Starbux has suffered much (there are more Starbucks here than any other city on the planet). Some large companies are having people work from home, but small ones like mine are plugging along. Another factor is schools are shut down for the time being. At some point, life will have to go on.

Due to a super spreader mixing it closely with other congregants at a holy roller cult church in Daegu and at a funeral nearby, about 80% of the country's cases are in the Daegu (fourth-largest city) and surrounding province area. The missus, who is a nurse practitioner, said they are asking for medical volunteers to go to that area to help. She said she would if she were still single and didn't have a kid (she's done missionary work in the past). At hospitals like hers they are screening people at the door: they'll ask about your symptoms and recent history and if you are suspect, you'll get a free test.

There are reports of restaurants denying foreigners like myself (which would be funny since I haven't been out of this country since last summer), but I have yet to see it. A lot of people wear masks, although I haven't succumbed to that. If I get any kind of symptoms, I'll put one on. At the men's room in my office building, which is shared with other companies, I see about 90% of the users wash their hands, up from about 25% pre-virus. My guess is the number of cold and normal flu cases has dropped in the country what with everyone so hygiene conscious all of a sudden.

Another upside is the air quality is better. We've had some very lousy air pollution in the last 10 years or so, and depending on who you believe, about 20-40% of that comes from China. Supposedly they are spewing a lot less filth across the Yellow Sea due to factory shutdowns.

Anyway, life goes on, although I'll definitely be taking an earnings hit this year. I don't think anyone I know will be picking up coronavirus, but you never know. Being smart, like not touching your face without having just washed your hands (something I've been doing for years), will go a long way.

Good luck to y'all.

Cheers,
CB

Interesting man - you know, I have been paying attention more who washes hands and who doesn't. I've always washed my hands after using the bathroom in any method...I would say 3 out of 4 don't... its disgusting. 3 out of my 3 kids don't.. but still.

All joking aside - for the smarter ones here on the forum, we preach to our kids about taking care of your body, cleanliness, and just overall good hygiene - if you do anything at all, is washing hands the biggest preventer of ALOT of crap in this world? I also think that completely going overboard (cleaning everything, not letting your kids get sick, get into shit.. etc.. is actually counter productive.. oh, your kids have chickenpox? I'll send mine right over... I want my kids to have an immune system and be exposed to things.

Dan - you originally asked about how business if being affected - markets are getting hammered, but that just means there are huge opportunities to make $ as a result - at least commodity trading wise (what I do for a living)
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HansBolter
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by HansBolter »

ORIGINAL: Ian R

It's a slightly humid 24C in Sydney, warmer inland, and a recent monsoonal deluge put out most of the fires.

I feel sorry for the 170 people who were on the Diamond Princess though, or at least the 162 that are still in quarantine in Darwin - it is the wet season up there, 30C and 80% humidity. 2 weeks locked up there would send most of us troppo.


For the life of me I will never be capable of grasping centigrade/celcius.

To an American 24 degrees is 8 degrees below freezing.

So what does 24c equate to in our measuring system? A balmy 68 or mildly uncomfortable 78 or a sticky and uncomfortable 88?

Help a clueless guy out here will ya.
Hans

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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Ian R »

C to F - double it and add about 28.

So 24C about = 76F.

This only works in the span of about 10C to about 30C, outside those parameters 28 does not work.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Fishbed »

Zero is ice cold, 20 is the usual ambient temperature in a protected environment (aka a lab, a classroom), 30 is a hot day in summer and in most countries without generalized AC schools, companies & all would be kindly asked to close around 37, which happens to be around the temperature of the human body by the way. Water boils at 100.

And I'd say 24 is a mild, sweet temperature for Summer in Australia.
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MakeeLearn
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by MakeeLearn »

Just stopped by the local shoe store. the inventory was low. I Asked "Not much to choose from, Corona Virus?"<Chuckle>. "Yes" she replied, "the manager said she is scared to order anything that comes from China."






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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by cantona2 »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Forum is a repository of smart, well-reasoned folks, and some of them might offer informed opinions about the Corona virus outbreak and how it might play out. Chickenboy comes to mind, given his background, and there may be others. I hope you'll chime in, as your thoughts should be very interested to those of us who are laymen and have no clue what's going on.

To be perfectly honest the media is not helping one bit. News of people getting ill in a certain region are largely exaggerated, for example headline Coronavirus spreads to Southern Italy - one reported case!!! Look at the screenshot below from a local paper. Look at the thicknesses of the fonts and the colours for each piece of information!

I do not understand the mass hysteria on evidence when one reads a little deeper into the matter. I gave my maths group in school the task to work out the % of the world's population that has died (well published figures that is) using an estimated figure of 8 billion. I think it worked out at 0.0000000009% death rate.

Social media is not helping either with this being constantly thrust in peoples faces and lives every second of the day.

Death rates from more common illnesses and colds are much higher but I am amazed at the paralysis a lot of western states are exhibiting. Closing schools, cancelling football matches, those damned masks...

About the only positive thing that has come of this is a quarantine of two weeks on full pay if you have recently visited certain countries on the list...hey does playing the game count? We are in the trenches in China after all [:D]

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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by USSAmerica »

ORIGINAL: Ian R

C to F - double it and add about 28.

So 24C about = 76F.

This only works in the span of about 10C to about 30C, outside those parameters 28 does not work.


F = (C x 9/5) +32.
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