OT: Corona virus

[Canoerebel]

The Forum is a repository of smart, well-reasoned folks, and some of them might offer informed opinions about the Corona virus outbreak and how it might play out. Chickenboy comes to mind, given his background, and there may be others. I hope you'll chime in, as your thoughts should be very interested to those of us who are laymen and have no clue what's going on.

[RangerJoe]

Here is a link to the thread on the General forum:

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.a ... 3&#4768437

[jeffk3510]

I sure has taken a toll on the grain markets the last few days in my line of work.

However, I remember the 09 Swine Flu pandemic... it did the same thing, but didn't seem to destroy the world like they think this one is going to... which this one won't either.

I am also a very pessimistic guy, so keep that in mind, but it generally turns out to be correct.

I have a hard time figuring out what flu is what to be honest.

As kids we called it the flu - puking, stomach ache, the shits.. etc.. The FLU is upper respiratory, so it wasn't that as a kid but we called it that.

We have A, B, and numerous others.

I know right now everyone we do business with the offices are a ghost town - everyone is sick. I don't know that I've seen that many sick before. My kids have all had it (flu or not, they've been sick), and one is home as we speak getting over it. Our office has around 25 people in two buildings, about 8 were here yesterday..

In my opinion (I am by no means an expert), this is just another flu that will come and go. The people dying (unfortunately) usually have some other underlying condition before hand..

If ya'll are anything like us, the cure is Chicken Noodle Soup...[8|]

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

I sure has taken a toll on the grain markets the last few days in my line of work.

However, I remember the 09 Swine Flu pandemic... it did the same thing, but didn't seem to destroy the world like they think this one is going to... which this one won't either.

I am also a very pessimistic guy, so keep that in mind, but it generally turns out to be correct.

I have a hard time figuring out what flu is what to be honest.

As kids we called it the flu - puking, stomach ache, the shits.. etc.. The FLU is upper respiratory, so it wasn't that as a kid but we called it that.

We have A, B, and numerous others.

I know right now everyone we do business with the offices are a ghost town - everyone is sick. I don't know that I've seen that many sick before. My kids have all had it, and one is home as we speak getting over it. Our office has around 25 people in two buildings, about 8 were here yesterday..

In my opinion (I am by no means an expert), this is just another flu that will come and go. The people dying (unfortunately) usually have some other underlying condition before hand..

If ya'll are anything like us, the cure is Chicken Noodle Soup...[8|]

That stomach flu is probably what they now call Norovirus.

[jeffk3510]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

I sure has taken a toll on the grain markets the last few days in my line of work.

However, I remember the 09 Swine Flu pandemic... it did the same thing, but didn't seem to destroy the world like they think this one is going to... which this one won't either.

I am also a very pessimistic guy, so keep that in mind, but it generally turns out to be correct.

I have a hard time figuring out what flu is what to be honest.

As kids we called it the flu - puking, stomach ache, the shits.. etc.. The FLU is upper respiratory, so it wasn't that as a kid but we called it that.

We have A, B, and numerous others.

I know right now everyone we do business with the offices are a ghost town - everyone is sick. I don't know that I've seen that many sick before. My kids have all had it, and one is home as we speak getting over it. Our office has around 25 people in two buildings, about 8 were here yesterday..

In my opinion (I am by no means an expert), this is just another flu that will come and go. The people dying (unfortunately) usually have some other underlying condition before hand..

If ya'll are anything like us, the cure is Chicken Noodle Soup...[8|]

That stomach flu is probably what they now call Norovirus.

Yes - the stomach bug

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the link, Ranger. That made interesting reading, and Chickenboy indeed weighed in.

That thread is interesting, because it began 1/30 and continued to about 2/1...and then no posts until yesterday, I think. Suddenly a new flurry.

A question: does a flu like this one have a season (ending with winter), or does it span the calendar?

[jeffk3510]

This Norovirus kills a couple hundred thousand people a year.. the Coronavirus is at what, 2,700 and change....?? [8|]

[Kull]

Assuming they can't put this genie back in the bottle, it's particularly worrying for this forum. Anecdotally, most of our membership appears to be in the riskier age category.

Edit: Get your daily updates here.

[Canoerebel]

Regarding the Spanish flu epidemic, I interviewed Dr. Leila Denmark about 15 years ago. She was in college in a small town in Georgia at the time of the pandemic. She was the third woman to graduate from medical school in Georgia. She was co-credited with developing the whooping cough vaccine. She practiced medicine until she was 103 years old. She died at 114, in 2011. She was a remarkable woman.

With respect to the Spanish flu, she said it disproportionally struck people in the prime of life. They learned why. People would have it for a few days. Then they'd begin to feel better. Then they'd go outside and milk the cows or work the land or whatever. Pneumonia would set in and they'd relapse and die. So the implemented a strong rest regimen and kept people out of the wet weather. From that point forward it wasn't a major problem.

But I don't know if the Corona flu is anything similar to Spanish flu, where common sense precautions would be mostly sufficient to deal with it. I have no idea.

Edited to correct a few minor things about Dr. Denmark's bio.

[jeffk3510]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Regarding the Spanish flu epidemic, I interviewed Dr. Leila Denmark about 15 years ago. She was in college in a small town in Georgia at the time of the pandemic. She was the second woman in Georgia to graduate from medical school. She was credited (co-credited might be better) with developing the whooping cough vaccine. She practiced medicine until she was 102 years old. She died at 111. She was a remarkable woman.

With respect to the Spanish flu, she said it disproportionally struck people in the prime of life. They learned why. People would have it for a few days. Then they'd begin to feel better. Then they'd go outside and milk the cows or work the land or whatever. Pneumonia would set in and they'd relapse and die. So the implemented a strong rest regimen and kept people out of the wet weather. From that point forward it wasn't a major problem.

But I don't know if the Corona flu is anything similar to Spanish flu, where common sense precautions would be mostly sufficient to deal with it. I have no idea.

Appreciate that little piece of history - thanks Dan

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Regarding the Spanish flu epidemic, I interviewed Dr. Leila Denmark about 15 years ago. She was in college in a small town in Georgia at the time of the pandemic. She was the second woman in Georgia to graduate from medical school. She was credited (co-credited might be better) with developing the whooping cough vaccine. She practiced medicine until she was 102 years old. She died at 111. She was a remarkable woman.

With respect to the Spanish flu, she said it disproportionally struck people in the prime of life. They learned why. People would have it for a few days. Then they'd begin to feel better. Then they'd go outside and milk the cows or work the land or whatever. Pneumonia would set in and they'd relapse and die. So the implemented a strong rest regimen and kept people out of the wet weather. From that point forward it wasn't a major problem.

But I don't know if the Corona flu is anything similar to Spanish flu, where common sense precautions would be mostly sufficient to deal with it. I have no idea.

Appreciate that little piece of history - thanks Dan

Yes, thank you Dan. It also tells you that when you are feeling better to still take it easy for awhile especially since your body has been weakened and may not be able to fight something else off. So people who work and have sick time should STAY HOME until they are definitely better and not tough it out and go to work, maybe even sharing their illness with others.

Joe.

[JohnDillworth]

Well, the Chinese Army bio-weapons research lab is in Wuhan so I’m going to put on my tin foil hat and say this got loose from the lab. Yes , it is a virus but it seems to behave in a strange way. Unlike the vast majority of viruses this on remains contagious on hard surfaces for over a week. Maybe longer. That is odd. The common cold virus lives for a few hours and the flu up to 48 hours. So over a week is odd and seems to be what is causing the high transmission levels and the ability to travel long distance. Some people can carry the virus for a week, remain contagious, and show no symptoms. So the delivery mechanism for the virus is capable. The payload, on the other hand, is dangerous, but is only 2 % fatal. A more lethal payload would be cause for even greater alarm. I’ll tread lightly here but China, as a nation, is better equipped to deal with something like this. They can, and did, lock down entire cities and arrest anyone that broke quarantine. If we tried to do that here here the first stop would be the court system for injunction and injunction. Do we still have the ability and the intestinal fortitude to dispense with bureaucracy and build massive hospitals in 10 days? I hope we don’t have to find out. I suspect this gets worse before it gets better. Good time to live in the country Dan. Us Cities might have much cause for concern

[MakeeLearn]

VIRUS LIVES MATTER!


Fruit Bat Soup: The Traditional Palau Delicacy


Ingredients

1 Large fruit bat
2 Medium donni sali (hot peppers)
1 Chopped white onion
5 tbsp Light soy sauce
2 tsp Lemon juice
1 pinch Salt
2 cans Coconut milk unsweetened



Instructions
For the hot sauce

1- In a sauce bowl, mix 2 tsp lemon juice and 5 tbsp. soy sauce with chopped onion.

2- Then, add chopped Donni Sali (hot pepper) to your tastes.

For the bat soup

1- In a large pot, boil the whole fruit bat in water for around 120 minutes, until the skin of the fruit bat is tender enough to tear through.

2- Remove water. Add coconut milk to the fruit bat with a pinch of salt to taste.

3- Cook for a further 10 minutes. Serve with hot sauce (covered above) and cooked rice.

4- Voilà! Your fruit bat soup is ready to serve.

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Summary

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html



"Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are common in many different species of animals, including camels, cattle, cats, and bats. Rarely, animal coronaviruses can infect people and then spread between people such as with MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, and now with this new virus (named SARS-CoV-2).

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is a betacoronavirus, like MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. All three of these viruses have their origins in bats. The sequences from U.S. patients are similar to the one that China initially posted, suggesting a likely single, recent emergence of this virus from an animal reservoir."

[MakeeLearn]

COVID-19: Confirmed Cases in the United States*†
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html

Travel-related 12

Person-to-person spread 2

Total confirmed cases 14

Total tested 426

[MakeeLearn]

Locations with Confirmed COVID-19 Cases
Global Map
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... cases.html
As of 11:00 a.m. ET February 26, 2020

[MakeeLearn]

Canoerebel

...People would have it for a few days. Then they'd begin to feel better. Then they'd go outside and milk the cows or work the land or whatever. Pneumonia would set in and they'd relapse and die. So the implemented a strong rest regimen and kept people out of the wet weather. From that point forward it wasn't a major problem...

Similar to why European diseases killed so many natives. They often OD on their medicines while trying to get better. Or they would wash in the water, on cold days, to purify their bodies of the Small Pox.

[jeffk3510]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Locations with Confirmed COVID-19 Cases
Global Map
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... cases.html
As of 11:00 a.m. ET February 26, 2020

You could show a map of the Norovirus, and color in every single country... the media is going nuts with the Coronavirus

[JohnDillworth]

On the more optimistic front the virus is not particularly contagious. Viruses have a “basic reproductive number” in susceptible populations. That number, called R0, is an indication of how many people an infected person will spread the infection to. So the R0 for measles is 18. Meaning each person that has it will likely spread it to 18 more people. Fortunately, most of us have been vaccinated or have had measles so while we might get exposed we won’t catch measles , again. The current COVID virus has a R0 of 2.3. So each person that has it will likely spread it to 2.3 people. Things like basic hand washing and isolation go a long way to keeping the numbers down and in more sparsely populated areas the suspect able population, and the contacts within that population are lower so the virus has more trouble taking hold. So the real worries is in cities and with large gatherings for events.

[geofflambert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel



But I don't know if the Corona flu is anything similar to Spanish flu, where common sense precautions would be mostly sufficient to deal with it. I have no idea.

There seems to be a misunderstanding here that won't go away. The coronavirus is not, repeat not, influenza. I'm not being political when I say Trump is an imbecile. The season has no more to do with it than it does with HIV, rabies, measles or smallpox/chickenpox.