The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Chernobyl
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by Chernobyl »

Holy balls! I did some hotseat testing and the whole 1.04 East-first Russia situation is a giant mess. I didn't realize how effective east first strategies can be. It was an absolute nightmare puzzle as Russia trying to defend against attacks from so many angles. Vilna, Minsk, Brest, Lutsk, and all the rail lines in between! Not to mention Serbia is busted. I'm not sure if it's a 100% to take Lutsk or not, but I'll defer to you guys on that one. The rail between Minsk and Brest seems impossible to defend. At the very least the Centrals are going to cut it.

The Germans have the ability to rail in so many damn troops over the course of the first two turns if they ignore Belgium. It feels like a whole new game.
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Bavre
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by Bavre »

ORIGINAL: Chernobyl

Holy balls! I did some hotseat testing and the whole 1.04 East-first Russia situation is a giant mess. I didn't realize how effective east first strategies can be. It was an absolute nightmare puzzle as Russia trying to defend against attacks from so many angles. Vilna, Minsk, Brest, Lutsk, and all the rail lines in between! Not to mention Serbia is busted. I'm not sure if it's a 100% to take Lutsk or not, but I'll defer to you guys on that one. The rail between Minsk and Brest seems impossible to defend. At the very least the Centrals are going to cut it.

The Germans have the ability to rail in so many damn troops over the course of the first two turns if they ignore Belgium. It feels like a whole new game.

That's what pretty much gave me the idea to try going east in the first place. Especially rushing the Grodno area gives you a superb staging ground from which you can threaten many vital russian objectives.
Capturing Lutsk is not guarantied, but has a high probability if you are fast and aggressive enough plus willing to eat some losses in the process. Holding Lutsk without the buff is a much more daunting prospect, but actually not really neccessary. Since you can reliably kill the northern line, the russians would not only have to recapture Lutsk to restore supply in Poland, the town has to be at least at 5. This means they also have to clear the vicinity of Lutsk of enemy units and then wait for the town to regenerate. Outside of the fortresses nothing in Poland is likely to live that long.
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by Chernobyl »

Doing some "testing" on an east first attack against the AI, I was able to capture ALL of Poland, and also Minsk and Vilna before the end of 1914. In December 1914 Russian NM fell below 50% and there were strikes in Petrograd.

Yes it's the AI but still. I want to point out also that not only is an east-first (with the help of surrender bonuses) attack very powerful against an expert Entente player, it's also extremely complicated and difficult to defend if you are Russia. You have to manage multiple priority defensive spots simultaneously, and have an extremely keen sense of knowing what to go for and what to give up. In other words, it's REALLY tough to play as Russia if Germany goes maximum effort against Russia and goes for your railroads, spawn points and NM objectives. Partly because the Centrals can come from all sides and it's tough to know where they railed the bulk of their units to due to fog of war. Without playtesting this attack quite a bit, you will make big mistakes.
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by BillRunacre »

Thanks for the feedback everyone, I'll be making some edits so that a CP advance into the east doesn't give them an unfair advantage over Russia.
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by mdsmall »

Hi - I am coming to this thread after a week of playing a game against Bavre as the Central Powers, which he opened with same intensive East First strategy against the Russians in Poland. The results may be of interest to others.

On my first turn, I could see that he must have cashed in all of his tech chits as there 5-6 German corps around Lemberg and two AH corps beside Lutsk. In the north, he made a very strong push from East Prussia towards Brest-Litovsk which annihilated the detachment in Grodno and the garrison in Bialystock and he had units only two hexes from Brest-Litovsk. My assessment was that I could not possibly hold on to Lutsk against that a strong combined German-AH force, and that in the north, the only units I could get to Brest-Litovsk would be via operational moves or forced marching and which would certainly be killed in the next two turns. Plus the rail line running from Brrest-Litovsk to Minsk just north of the marshes is very easy to cut and very difficult for the Russians to defend.

Faced with this pincer move, it looked almost certain that the Russian army would get cut off in Poland before the rest of the Russian army could mobilize. I made the decision to evacuate Poland almost completely on the first turn, on the theory it was better to try to save as much as my army as possible. I cashed in all of my Russian tech chits, operationally moved six infantry corps out of Poland to safer locations to the south and east and forced marched two corps towards the marshes. The cavalry were able to get to safety by moving just south of Brest Litovsk and headed to Minsk. The only forces I left in Poland were the two detachments that start there, plus the couple of corps that mobilized there in later turns which I could do nothing about. The CP quickly killed the detachments and General Samsonov who mobilized two turns later in Poland. General Everts and the experienced Guards corps that mobilizes with him never showed up. The remaining couple of corps in Poland dug into the two fortresses there, but he was easily able to surround and slowly reduce and finally kill them.

My defensive strategy worked in the short run, I was able to form one line in front of Vilna and Minsk in the north and another south of the marshes in western Ukraine. But the Germans in particular had superior morale and generals from the start and the morale/ readiness gap between the Germans and subsequently the Austrians versus the Russians only widened as first Luxembourg, then Montenegro, Serbia and finally Albania surrendered. He was able to surf a wave of surrender- induced morale buffs which enabled him to kill 2 -4 Russian corps a turn. The loss of all of the NM positions in Poland plus the defeat of Serbia reduced the Russian national morale below 75%. Once the infantry losses were factored in, by the spring of 1915, Russian national morale fell below 50% while German and Austro-Hungarian national morale were at 110%. At that point, even though in theory the morale buffs due to the surrenders had worn off, the national morale gap between the two sides was so great that it translated into a 35% unit morale gap. Researching Infantry Warfare 1 made no material difference to the Russians ability to overcome these odds. Even though the Russians were able to research trench warfare up to level 3, the Germans and Austrians were able to research their artillery equally quickly. So the Russian lines quickly collapsed over the summer of 1915 as the CP attacks backed up by artillery became over-powering.

In Serbia, we agreed that he would not attack Cetinje until turn 4 (allowing the Montenegro general and Sanjak corps to deploy). Instead, he used the same number of railed-in German forces he would have used for the M-Gambit to supplement the Austrians and had 13 corps attacking Serbia from the start. Serbia was never able to bring its 4 front-line corps up to full strength, was constantly retreating and surrendered after 6 CP moves in late October, 1914. Their collapse was so fast, there would have been no point to transporting any French or British corps there to stiffen their resistance.

Combat in the eastern Med between the UK and the Ottomans proceeded on pretty predictable lines. The UK were slowly able to push towards Gaza. But because the CP were able to bring in Bulgaria by late October 1914 (as soon as Nish fell), the Ottomans could rail in CP reinforcements if they ever got into trouble. I used the enhanced amphibious capacity for the UK and France in the latest patch to do a raid with two Marine units against the Ottoman railroad near Antalya, where it runs along the coast. This worked to cut supply and reinforcements to Palestine for a couple of turns, but I could not hold this beachhead against several attacking Ottoman corps and I had to withdraw.

On the Western Front, the CP remained in place, only occupying Luxembourg and then entrenching. Once the whole French army had mobilized and I received General Foch, I decided to attack Belgium. That went fairly smoothly and it lengthened the German front a bit. But the French were attacking with reduced morale, due to the defeats in the Balkans and they took some heavy casualties. More importantly, the NM hits against France and especially the UK for declaring war against Belgium were crippling: 3000 and 8000 respectively. Ironically, UK public opinion does not seem troubled by France DOW’ing Belgium if it happens before they enter the war. In this game, France attacked on the turn that Britain entered the war and as a result, UK National Morale immediately dropped from 100% to 84%. France was able to hold its line against Germany and built up its artillery, benefitting from the extra MPPs from capturing Belgium. But once both sides got artillery 1, they were able to trade blows and do an equal amount of damage on the Western Front, while the main German army was busy demolishing Russia in the East. Once Russia withdrew from the war in September 1915, the writing was on the wall for the Entente in the West and I conceded.

My conclusions are that an all-out attack in the East by the CP on the opening turn - if pursued with the focus that Bavre brought to the job - is devastating for the Entente, especially if it is combined with an equal push against Serbia. These two campaigns feed-off each other through the morale impact of surrenders by minor powers. Just fixing the Montenegro gambit will not change that, as I argued at the end of that long thread. If the CP wants to take out Serbia and Russia, they can do so AT THE SAME TIME, while leaving enough of a force to block any French and British attacks in the West.

Others should test out this opening by the Central Powers to see if a different defence strategy, and/or more skillful tactical moves by the Entente, would have changed anything fundamental. Personally, I doubt it. In terms of the adjustments to the game settings to slow down this assault in the interests of giving the Entente enough of a chance to hold on, there are some minor tweaks and two more major ones that I would recommend.

The minor tweaks are the following:

- giving Russia other safer locations for their units to mobilize, if the hexes in Poland have been captured and/or Poland has been cut-off;
- fixing the glitch which prevents two Russian corps from mobilizing in the Caucasus if Brest-Litovsk has been captured;
- making a few more enhancements in Montenegro to reduce the M-Gambit, such as making Centinje a Fortified Town, increasing their two Montenegro detachments from 7 to 10; and adding an alternate capital in Pec;
- and perhaps strengthening Serbias starting positions e.g. by making some or all their front-line corps and their initial HQ start at full strength;

The two bigger adjustments that I recommend are:

- reducing the unit morale impact of minor units surrender, by reducing the % swing; or restricting it to the controlling Major and the Major that forced the surrender; or perhaps eliminating this feature entirely for minor powers.
- prohibiting both sides from selling their tech chits on turn one (only).

The goal of these changes would be to enable both Serbia and Russia not be overwhelmed in the opening couple of moves. They would slow down a concerted CP attack in the Balkans enough to make it plausible for the Entente to try to double down and defend Serbia by sending in a couple of French or British corps. And they would give Russia enough of a chance to mobilize and perhaps even counter-attack a bit either in East Prussia or Galicia as the Central Powers rail in more forces. I don’t think it would invalidate the East-first strategy (at least I hope not). But I think these changes would prevent the game from being settled in the opening four months of the war.
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Taxman66
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by Taxman66 »

Can France & UK change gears and instead go hard after the Ottomans?
Alternately can they invest heavily in Diplomacy, Economics and Naval to go after the blockade and crush the CP's med fleets?

It may not work, but might be a better alternative than banging their heads against the superior Germany land units.
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by OldCrowBalthazor »

ORIGINAL: mdsmall

The minor tweaks are the following:

- giving Russia other safer locations for their units to mobilize, if the hexes in Poland have been captured and/or Poland has been cut-off;
- fixing the glitch which prevents two Russian corps from mobilizing in the Caucasus if Brest-Litovsk has been captured;
- making a few more enhancements in Montenegro to reduce the M-Gambit, such as making Centinje a Fortified Town, increasing their two Montenegro detachments from 7 to 10; and adding an alternate capital in Pec;
- and perhaps strengthening Serbias starting positions e.g. by making some or all their front-line corps and their initial HQ start at full strength;

The two bigger adjustments that I recommend are:

- reducing the unit morale impact of minor units surrender, by reducing the % swing; or restricting it to the controlling Major and the Major that forced the surrender; or perhaps eliminating this feature entirely for minor powers.
- prohibiting both sides from selling their tech chits on turn one (only).

The goal of these changes would be to enable both Serbia and Russia not be overwhelmed in the opening couple of moves. They would slow down a concerted CP attack in the Balkans enough to make it plausible for the Entente to try to double down and defend Serbia by sending in a couple of French or British corps. And they would give Russia enough of a chance to mobilize and perhaps even counter-attack a bit either in East Prussia or Galicia as the Central Powers rail in more forces. I don’t think it would invalidate the East-first strategy (at least I hope not). But I think these changes would prevent the game from being settled in the opening four months of the war.

You nailed it! Thanks to you and Bavre for extending the test out to mid 1915. The outcomes you outlined were becoming self-evident to me by Test 2....

I hope our much respected Devs consider what you just proposed.

On the side, for the last week, me and an opponent and friend did our own additional test..its still ongoing at July 1915, but the results are very similar. I am playing the CP on this one, and earlier had elected to have AH cede the Tyrol to Italy. Its not hurting a triumphant AH much except as a transitory NM speedbump...as Russia collapses.
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by OldCrowBalthazor »

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

Can France & UK change gears and instead go hard after the Ottomans?
Alternately can they invest heavily in Diplomacy, Economics and Naval to go after the blockade and crush the CP's med fleets?

It may not work, but might be a better alternative than banging their heads against the superior Germany land units.

No...I have tried this approach...its near impossible when Bulgaria gets in the war Before the Ottomans even do...as is happening here with the situation described at tested repeatedly.
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Bavre
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by Bavre »

ORIGINAL: OldCrowBalthazor

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

Can France & UK change gears and instead go hard after the Ottomans?
Alternately can they invest heavily in Diplomacy, Economics and Naval to go after the blockade and crush the CP's med fleets?

It may not work, but might be a better alternative than banging their heads against the superior Germany land units.

No...I have tried this approach...its near impossible when Bulgaria gets in the war Before the Ottomans even do...as is happening here with the situation described at tested repeatedly.

Exactly. I had the inner line in that game before the Entente could do much. Mdsmall actually went full tilt against my Turks: the naval landings he mentioned + accepting quite some damage to his fleet to reduce Gaza to rubble, followed by an all out GB offensive in Palestine. However since I managed to prevent his marines from capturing any town along the rail line and had ample reserves after the collapse of the Balkans, it never really threatened my position. The turn before Russias end the Anzacs had reached the outskirts of Gaza, but the first ottoman cannon was deployed by then with two more already on the way.

In Russia the game was also quite enlightening to me, too. The odds I got after I managed to get things rolling were simply bombastic. Even my first attacks vs entrenchment 2 Russian Corps in forests commanded by either Brussilov or Yudenich often already had even if not slightly favorable odds.
The combination of the minors surrender buffs + the resulting NM shifts and XP gains of my generals enabled my army to surf on a wave of euphoria right to the outskirts of Moscow. I literally advanced so fast, my eastern cannons were useless half the time and I wasted a lot of shots.
Seeing how powerful this whole dynamic unfolds, I now absolutely understand some of my defeats in previous games.
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by Espejo »

Damm, you it is just to cheesy. And I cant resit it after seeing how effective it is :(. The interessting part is that another opponent railed in his troops as CP one turn later to not sell all his tech chits and it allowed the Serbs and Montenegriens to get organised and defend themselves. This one turn made all the difference so that it was a real gambit with not a 100% chance of sucess
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by OldCrowBalthazor »

ORIGINAL: Espejo

Damm, you it is just to cheesy. And I cant resit it after seeing how effective it is :(. The interessting part is that another opponent railed in his troops as CP one turn later to not sell all his tech chits and it allowed the Serbs and Montenegriens to get organised and defend themselves. This one turn made all the difference so that it was a real gambit with not a 100% chance of sucess

Yeah...that's the other problem, "I can't resist it after seeing how effective it is." :))
The CP player knows its cheese, its wrong, its an exploit....but its legal. So...this is another reason why this has to be fixed......
...so the CP player doesn't have to face this moral decision!
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by Bavre »

FYI, just did another run of the same setup vs Dazo. Played a different variant of my eastern attack, that did not really pan out, was gameplay wise totally out of my depth and got outmanoeuvred and encircled every other turn. Nevertheless the Entente was toast in Jan 15 thanks to my superhuman soldiers. Since Dazo was the one who trained me when I started out in MP this was kind of a

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situation. Join the dark side, we have the Montenegro Gambit ... and cookies!
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by Dazo »

And some JarJar Binks moments too, that serbian conquering retreat in Greece was a masterpiece of vanishing arts [:D].
I think the worst effect of the surrendering morale boost is not only demoralizing units but also the player .

Kudos to Bavre for agreeing to that game and exchanging PoWs !
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by OldCrowBalthazor »

Sigh......I'm still stuck in Carbonite because of all this mischief. [:D]

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by Bavre »

Almost forgot:

In the game with Dazo we found out that declaring war on Albania or Greece is not really a viable way to save the Serbian army. The "units fight on after the countrie surrenders" effect seemingly only happens on friendly soil, all units standing in conquered enemy territory simply disband.
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by Dazo »

Yes and also, FR needs to attacks Belgium before UK war entry because UK will take a huge NM hit if it's mobilized 100% when Belgium is DoWed.
Which is a bit weird given the neutrality guarantees from the 1839 treaty but well...
Maybe it should decrease UK mobilization if done before ?
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by Chernobyl »

ORIGINAL: Dazo
Yes and also, FR needs to attacks Belgium before UK war entry because UK will take a huge NM hit if it's mobilized 100% when Belgium is DoWed.

Or the Germans could just declare war on the UK first, screwing you

Makes total historical sense ;)
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by OldCrowBalthazor »

ORIGINAL: Chernobyl

Or the Germans could just declare war on the UK first, screwing you

Makes total historical sense ;)

FFS....now I've converted. :)) [&o]

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by Espejo »

Is there any new news regarding as solution or a patch? (comming soon ???)
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RE: The Montenegro Gambit Test 2

Post by Chernobyl »

I just steal everything from Dazo ThisEndUp and others
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