For Testing: US/China War 2025: USAF Wing vs PLAN Fujian Battle Group

[Craigkn]

Submitted for testing..

This scenario depicts the opening moves of a near-future war between China and the United States. After China launched a massive ballistic missile strike against U.S. and allied bases, only a few airfields are available for the U.S. and its allies to launch a counterattack. Scraping up what aircraft remain available in the theater, a USAF-led expeditionary wing has been ordered to find, fix, and destroy a PLAN aircraft carrier battle group that blocks air routes to Taiwan.

Edit: I forgot to clear the loss/expenditures and a few other minor details, revised version loaded. I also replaced a few supporting aircraft.

[Craigkn]

I am "play testing" as well, and while I think the USMC having a few F-35B's in the Philippines is plausible - I struggle to find something to do with them, due to their short legs, even with tanker support. If the PLAN CVBG is close to PI, then a volley of AARGM-ER's, in coordination with the main strike, could help, but I have been unable to orchestrate that - simply getting the Japan-based strike mustered and in place is a challenge. I tried sending them after the SAG, but the Type 52DL's "Anti-Stealth" radar works really well.

I have managed to eliminate the primary target, but both times it was messy. Not having AEW&C support is a pain, but its a fun challenge.

Any feedback is appreciated.

[Transient]

Thanks for the scenario, I certainly enjoyed it.

I did not find the lack of AEW to be too big a hinderance, though one of my Triton became shark food as a result.

Wish there were more munitions though, whilst I managed to sink the CV and 3 DDGs, I couldn't get the B-52s for a third reload. Their loadout of 8 LRASMs each is also too paltry for a strike sufficient enough to overwhelm the Chinese CSG's defences, even with the CV and its air cover out of the way.

There also seems to be some issue with the Rapid Dragon munitions loadout, I could not get all to fire.

[Craigkn]

The Rapid Dragon takes a bit to get it to work - I dumped one full C-17 against the Carrier, and the other I fired 1/2 at the carrier and the rest at escorts. Only 4 LRASM's got through, all of which struck the carrier, sinking it - really messy.

I think the MALD-J load outs are not accurate for the B-52 - DoD has published a single B-52 carrying 16 MALD-J's. I may add one additional B-52 to account for this issue. Also for the LRASM - the B-52 can carry 20 JASSM's, which is the airframe that the LRASM is based on. I cant edit the database, but I can add a third B-52 to help correct this.

My goal is to plan a TOT strike where the MALD-J, LRASM, and AARGM-ER's (from the F-35B) all arrive at about the same time, however coordinating the tankers for the F-35B's is a little challenge. This is also highly dependent on where the PLAN CVBG is located, the farther north it goes, the less chance I have of employing the F-35's.

[Willigm]

This is an interesting scenario, thanks for creating it.

I was able to taken out the SAG and the CVBG except of 1 CG, 1 DDG and 1 FFG. My first try on the CVBG ended up badly with only 1 FFG kill. Because of the highly effective HHQ-9. So I changed up the attack a bit by using almost all MALD-J (48 out of the total 60) before doing the Rapid Dragon attack. The MALD-J were used to expand their SAM before the LRASM arrived. And I also change the attack angle and do a bit of BOL for the LRSAM wave so they can reattack more easily.

As for the F-35 and their AARGM-ER, I just didn't bother to use them on the CVBG due to the range and the threat of the SAG to the tanker. Though the AARGM-ER proved to be very useful in killing the SAG.

I think one way to ease the clean up process (after you kill the CV and most of the CVBG) is to just put a sub in the scanario with a distance that it will only arrive at the area until the last 6(ish) hour of the scanario. You should already use up all the ASM ammo by that time. And only give it torpedo (no Tomahawk MMT) so it can't be use in the early stage.

[Craigkn]

Revised version with scoring. I added one B-52 to account for the loadout issues in game, and for fun (optional to use) a E-2D and a EC-37. My most successful counter-air operation so far was with just F-22's, so the extra units may not be needed.

The problem with the "missile truck" concept for the F-15s is if they can fire JATM's, the PL-15's can reach them as well. The F-22's lack of IRST is also an issue, as without an E-2D they need to illuminate their radars. I wonder if F-35 Block 4's would do better? They will carry less missiles, but may be more survivable.

[Tcao]

I am "play testing" as well, and while I think the USMC having a few F-35B's in the Philippines is plausible - I struggle to find something to do with them, due to their short legs, even with tanker support. If the PLAN CVBG is close to PI, then a volley of AARGM-ER's, in coordination with the main strike, could help, but I have been unable to orchestrate that - simply getting the Japan-based strike mustered and in place is a challenge. I tried sending them after the SAG, but the Type 52DL's "Anti-Stealth" radar works really well.

I have managed to eliminate the primary target, but both times it was messy. Not having AEW&C support is a pain, but its a fun challenge.

Any feedback is appreciated.

I will give this a try later but looking at the scenario, I am wondering if the F-35B would be better to fit into recon & AEW & ELINT role? Change their loadout to ferry, team up with the refuel tanker, then you have a support role a/c that can reach 1000nm.

Also, seems like the on map F-35B default loadout and armed with AARGM options are external loadout. In this case their RCS will be increased significantly. The Type 052DL or Type 055 can detect them at 160nm distance. However if you change the loadout to internal, the detection distance will be reduced to 50nm. It probably won't do much to the PLAN vessel, but now you will have an assassinator that can target PLAN's AEW.

[Craigkn]

I am finding that using the Rapid Dragon to target multiple targets is a major pain. I thought I had it set up, but in the end only 2/3 of the LRASMs were fired against targets. I am thinking the best option is to launch all of them at the CV as its the primary target.

I am playing around with a version that replaces the F-22 and F-15's with 8 F-35A Block 4's, and that arrangement seems much superior, 2 F-35 losses but I eliminated the full J-15 air wing, and the two KJ-600's, which is essentially a mission kill for the CV - no aircraft left. Perhaps I should account for that in scoring - an empty carrier is as useful as a sunk carrier, in this scenario at least.

[Craigkn]

This is an alternate version, where the F-22 and F-15's are replaced with 8 x F-35A out of Misawa. I also removed some of the support aircraft. This scenario really shows what the Block 4 F-35's can do, really impressive performance so far.

I have also added scoring for shooting down J-15's. If the CV lacks aircraft, its a mission kill - so you can win by either sinking the CV outright or by eliminating its air wing.

[Craigkn]

I am thinking of a "hard mode" version of this - you launch everything at once, one strike. Its "easy" to generate 2 or 3 of sorties of fighters from Misawa and attrit the PLAN air cover, then launch the main strike - but once the first sortie hits, China will flatten Misawa with DF-21's (assuming that Chinese saboteurs / agents in Japan would note a ton of US aircraft landing and then launching). So you all launch at once, and then what remains of your wing diverts to other operational air fields in the theater. I need to test the feasibility of this - can the air wing (given 6+2 tankers) even pull this off - if they can, then this might be the elite version of this raid. Think like a "Doomsday Doolittle" raid on the Fujian.

Divert fields could be in PI, Australia, Vietnam (?), I am assuming that Indonesia and Malaysia would remain somewhat neutral. Guam would still be a smoking crater at this point. Maybe Saipan International Airport.

So, 6 hours into the scenario, China launches several dozen DF-21's at Misawa. Your air wing better be in the air by this time. Fly to the target, fighters engage the CAP, bombers hold position, once enough fighters are down, launch a full salvo of MALD-J and LRASM's at the Fujian. Then the air wing ferries to a friendly airfield to gas back up and get out of dodge.

[Craigkn]

So I did testing with version 1.2. I flew the whole air wing down to the PI sea, found the PLAN CVBG, and then flew in circles for about three hours, then herded the wing to divert fields in PI and Darwin. So logistically, it works. The only issue is the E-2D I had tag along flew slower than the rest of the wing, and was a bit of a hassle to keep tanked up during the long flight. If the USAF air wing had the F-35A's, then the E-2D would not be needed, and would reduce the fuel requirements - 10 dual engine airframes (F-22/F-15) vs 8 single engine (F-35A)

Also as suggested, I tried configuring the USMC F-35B in ferry loadout, and used them to scout for the PLAN CVBG, and this also worked great.

[Tcao]

Absolutely, they are working as the best team. F-22 kept at EMCON A, F-35B is in charge of detection, ID , illumination and guide the AMRAAM. Just make sure don't get into PLAN's 50nm defense ring.

teamwork of F-35B and F-22.jpg (287.9 KiB) Viewed 1327 times

Another KJ-600 is going to bite the dust.

[Craigkn]

Final, hard mode, version. In this scenario, you will have a slightly larger air wing, more support assets, but you have six hours to vacate Misawa before the base is attacked. The goal is to launch a single raid on the CVBG, and then land your air wing in Darwin. The player may not have enough time to find the location of the CVBG, so ISR may need to take place while the strike package moves south.

See post below for revised version 1.4

[Craigkn]

Playing 1.4, I achieved a mission kill of the Fujian. 11 LRSAM's struck the carrier, causing 65% damage, wrecking the flight deck, and 28 out of 30 J-15's were destroyed.

I lost one F-22 to running out of fuel, the other 2 F-22 and one F-35 were shot down by PL-15's. The remainder of the USAF wing landed safely in Darwin.

MALD-J's fly a little slower than LRASM's, so they were less effective, I should have fired the MALD-J's first and waited longer, however they did soak up quite a few missiles.




SIDE: USAF
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
4x [DECOY] A/C Hangar (1x Very Large Aircraft)
3x [DECOY] F-22A Raptor
1x [DECOY] F-35A Lightning II


EXPENDITURES:
------------------
24x ADM-160C MALD-J [Stand-In OECM]
137x AGM-158C LRASM
70x AIM-260 JATM
1x AIM-9X-2 Sidewinder Blk II
2x AN/ALE-70(V)/T-1687 Expendable Decoy
3x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
3x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Dual Spectral]
10x Rapid Dragon Weapon Pallet [9x AGM-158C LRASM]

WEAPONS/STORES LOST:
-----------------------------
15x 20mm/85 M61A2 Vulcan Burst [100 rnds]
6x 25mm GAU-22/A Equalizer Burst [30 rnds]
2x AIM-260 JATM
5x AIM-9X-2 Sidewinder Blk II
4x AN/ALE-70 FOTD
6x AN/ALE-70(V)/T-1687 Expendable Decoy
45x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
32x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Dual Spectral]



SIDE: PLAN
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
1x [DECOY] GJ-11 Sharp Sword UAV
28x [DECOY] J-15B Flying Shark [Su-33 Copy]
1x [DECOY] KJ-600


EXPENDITURES:
------------------
4x 130mm China H/PJ-38 HE
5x 30mm China H/PJ-14 [Type 1130, 500 rnds]
29x DF-21C [600kg HE Conventional, CSS-5 Mod-3] RV
29x DF-21C [600kg HE Conventional, CSS-5 Mod-4]
43x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
23x Generic Flare Rocket [Single Spectral]
1x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
192x HHQ-9B
87x HQ-10 [FL-3000N]
58x HQ-9A
9x PL-10
52x PL-15

WEAPONS/STORES LOST:
-----------------------------
140x 30mm Gsh-30-1 Burst [30 rnds]
296x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
335x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
56x J-15D Wingtip Jammer Pod
48x PL-10
122x PL-15

[Craigkn]

Revised version of 1.4, with improved scoring:

+33 points for shooting down J-15 (all J-15 shot down = 1000 points = win)
+100 points for shooting down KJ-600
+500 points for damaging CV to 50%
+500 points for sinking CV

[Craigkn]

Final final version..

Researching the political climate of a potential China-US war in the Pacific, a complicating factor are overflight rights. China will likely heavily pressure countries to close their airspace to US and its allies.

In this scenario, China was able to bribe Indonesia who closed its airspace. Papua New Guinea, without any means to stop overflights, accepted a substantial promise of grants and investments from Australia, and declared its sky's open to allied forces.

This is a really good article on the specifics of overflight rights, and how that can complicate military operations:

https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/New ... -aircraft/

[Sanyr1310]

A delicate scenario on the whole. Thanks for creating this wonderful piece.

However, I'm a bit curious about why you put 2 Type 054 Jiangkai I (Only 2 vessels in PLAN assets) and 2 053H3 Jiangwei II in the PLAN CVBG and SAG when PLAN has dozens of Type 054A FFG, Type 052D DDG(which will definitely be more in 2025) and Type 055 CG((which will definitely be more in 2025)?

Those two types of FFG, which only got point air defense, in the CVBG/SAG is just like putting LCSs rather than Burkes or Ticons in a US CVBG.

[Craigkn]

I will need to review the CVBG OOB. I thought I had one Type 055 and three Type 052D's in the CVBG - I think my intent was one Type 052DL and two Type 052D's. The ASW group is meant to be a lower tier, supplemental group to avoid / route around to target the main threat. I am juggling several scenarios, so I'll look into this.

The broader strategic scope is that the PLAN has three CVBG's deployed and four Sea Control Task Groups (based around a Type 055) - and the Type 052DL's are spread around the main battle groups.

My losses and expenditure report earlier indicated a ton of HHQ-9B's and HQ-9A's launched - which to me feels balanced, but I'll take a second look.

192x HHQ-9B
87x HQ-10 [FL-3000N]
58x HQ-9A
9x PL-10
52x PL-15

[Craigkn]

Version 1.6:

- Added a third PLAN surface group
- Added PLAN UAV for ISR
- Modified PLAN CAP missions

I am happy with the PLAN CVBG makeup, but I did modernize the ASW group, and added a SAG. The CVBG remains the primary target.

[Sanyr1310]

Version 1.6:

- Added a third PLAN surface group
- Added PLAN UAV for ISR
- Modified PLAN CAP missions

I am happy with the PLAN CVBG makeup, but I did modernize the ASW group, and added a SAG. The CVBG remains the primary target.

Thanks for the upgrade you've made Craig but I think it's my problem not being able to express some points well.

Firstly, I pointed out the issue abt Type 054 and 053H3 is for its role in PLAN. AFAIK, these two types of ships are no longer the main combatants of PLAN. They usually act near the coastline of mainland China performing daily patrol. I believe when executing an A2/AD mission, the PLAN will prefer sending more Type 054A than 054 or 053H3(their combat capabilty is kind of out-date).

Secondly, I noticed that you put more Type 054 to replace the Type 053H3 or to fullfill the SAGs. However, something you have to know is that PLAN only have 2 vessels of this type in total(its massive-production successor is Type 054A Jiangkai II and it has better ASW capability). So it would be fine to just replace them with Type 054As.

Hope you could take these into consideration. Scenarios relate to West Pac are always intriguing and exciting, and our goal is to make the scen closer to reality, isn't it?