Chains of War 4 - Salvo 3/7/18

[fitzpatv]

Now that their attacks have brought Vietnam to the negotiating table, China aims to hit targets in South Korea, Japan and Guam with long-ranged missiles, potentially backed-up by hacking of computer systems. You can only play the Chinese side and have six hours in which to disable 11 runways across 9 airbases, while doing as much other damage there as possible and also to sink the US carrier Ronald Reagan, reported to be at sea S of Yokosuka in Japan. There is also a requirement to eliminate American military satellites.

To do this, you have 204 land-based ballistic missiles, 96 land-based cruise missiles, 182 long-ranged and 16 medium-ranged air-launched cruise missiles, 42 ARMs and 6 SC-19 anti-satellite missiles. There are plenty of modern fighters available for escort duty or CAP over the homeland in case the Americans and their allies retaliate, while you are also furnished with 9 AEW aircraft and a few largely redundant tankers. China is defended by an array of SAM sites (mostly Gargoyles) and early-warning radars. Finally, you have numerous satellites for recon and the dubious services of a pair of AGI ships, which are cruising off Guam and seem to serve as nothing more than targets should you fail to close the runways there.

I tried to analyse the targets (revealed after letting the game run for a second) but soon concluded that there wasn’t much point. There are 1-2 runways, several hangars and a huge number of tarmac spaces, open parking spots and revetments at each airbase, so you have plenty of choice.

China’s main weapon is her ballistic missile arsenal. These weapons travel at between 4,500 and 6,500 knots and have varying ranges, with the DF-26s (so-called ‘Guam-Killers’) able to strike anything on the map, the DF-15 and 16s limited to the closer targets and the DF-21s in-between. Only the DF-21Ds can engage naval targets and you only have 24 of them, split between the Qingdao and Dalian areas. The briefing warns you that the Americans and their allies will respond very quickly to any launch, so time is of the essence. Whereas it would be nice to co-ordinate the ballistic rockets with the slower DF-10 and air-launched KD-20 cruise missiles, doing so would allow the enemy too much time to prepare, as the latter need 45 minutes or more to reach their objectives. I therefore decided to attack with the ballistics first and use the other weapons for a follow-up strike when I knew which runways were left. To make sure, I resolved to concentrate on the runways and, if I could find her in time, the Ronald Reagan. To this end, I worked-out a launch schedule which ensured that all the warheads arrived at about the same time, so as to overload the defences as best I could.

You are offered a number of Special Actions involving the use of so-called ‘cyber-warfare’ (this suggests robots to me, but is really just computer-system hacking). As with many such options in Command scenarios, the VP cost is prohibitive. It costs 200VP to disable either of the enemy THAAD (high-altitude missile defence) systems, which can intercept ballistic missiles, 100VP to RTB all enemy AEW planes (but not satellites or radars), an eye-watering 500 to disrupt US satellite recon or temporarily disconnect their surface ships from the comms grid and a totally ludicrous 750 to locate the Reagan, which you can do anyway! In each case, I decided that it wasn’t worth it.

3/7/18 01:00Z: Ballistic missiles were launched at all runways as per my schedule. Chinese fighters scrambled to patrol three CAP zones in the NE, E and SE coastal sectors, keeping inland. At first, there was no sign of the Reagan and no satellites within the 645nm range of the SC-19s on Hainan, near Beijing and in distant Xinjiang.

The ballistic missiles succeeded in closing 9 of the 11 runways for 100VP each, though it was hard to tell which. Not all got through and the THAADs could hit them on about 80%. However, the latter only had about eight shots between them and the extra 200VP for the last two runways would not have repaid the 400VP needed to close both batteries down with hacking. A secondary target was disabled for a mere 10VP. Two Hornets destroyed on the ground scored nothing. The score of +910 was still a Disaster!

Satellites had now located the Reagan and her four escorts where the briefing said she would be, as well as a couple of US and Japanese DDGs in the Sea of Japan. Unfortunately, the Qingdao DF-21D battery was a mere 15nm out of range (!) and the Dalian one was hampered by its need for absolutely precise target data before it could fire. The latter problem did, at least, resolve itself and 12 missiles flew. Meanwhile, the DF-10 batteries unleashed their 96 weapons at a broad spread of secondary targets on Kadena and Futenma fields on Okinawa, aiming to overwhelm the defences by weight of numbers. South Korea wasn’t an option due to the visible presence of a strong CAP. Eight Flounders took-off from Jianqiao airbase to provide SEAD cover for the strike – I hoped that they could operate safely on the edge of the defending Patriots’ 60nm range. Note that the Chinese don’t have any jamming planes in this scenario.

The DF-21D strike failed, partly thanks to the usual leavening of 10-35% spoof rolls and a malfunction which would otherwise have hit the carrier. Reprieved, the CVBG then stayed out of range of the Qingdao battery and, with no air-launched anti-shipping missiles, I had nothing else to attack it with. I tried moving the Qingdao battery further E, but the game’s land navigation system wouldn’t have this and insisted on moving it a long way W first to circumvent awkward terrain. Do they have no roads in China?! Whether you need to sink or merely damage the carrier to score, I don’t know. In the campaign ‘history’, the Reagan gets sunk, but it is very hard to do it in the game.

Meanwhile, I learned that the requirement to destroy satellites is a total joke!. The SC-19s can only engage targets moving at 10,000 knots or less and the US satellites you can otherwise reach (some are in geo-stationary orbits) all travel at upwards of 14,000. It can’t be done.

02:00: None of the 48 DF-10s fired at Kadena made it past the SAMs and fighters – clearly, one of the operational runways was on Okinawa, which didn’t have to be the case. The eight Flounders knocked-down a Japanese Orion en route, but this scored no points. Before they could get in range to use their YJ-91 ARMs, they were engaged by unseen fighters. One was lost to an AMRAAM for an eye-watering 50VP and the others got the hell out, returning to base. It makes no sense whatever to risk your aircraft in this scenario, but I didn’t know the scoring system in advance.

03:00: The Americans began to counter with salvoes of submarine- (and possibly ship-) launched cruise missiles, firing 53 in all. Despite the presence of active radars and AEW planes, these were typically detected a short distance off the coast at 200’. China is a big country and it isn’t easy to anticipate every threat, though all the missiles arrived along the mid E seaboard in practice. The great majority were intercepted and destroyed by fighters and Gargoyles, but one group found a weak spot and destroyed two linked radars in an exposed coastal location. This cost 200VP – the same as closing two runways.

Meanwhile, the second wave of 48 DF-10s failed to penetrate Okinawas’s defences, scoring no hits.

04:00: Activating Plan C, I launched the 182 KD-20 cruise missiles with the Badger fleet, again aiming to overload Okinawa. For a while, it looked as though even this was going to fail in the face of the phenomenal SAM and fighter defence. During the scenario, the enemy used 180 AMRAAMs, 36 Sidewinders, 259 Patriots and 72 HAWKs and Japanese SAM-4s, mostly in the Okinawa area. Some KD-20s got through in the end and hit 13 scoring targets for a magnificent 130VP – 65% of what the enemy got for the two radars. Only two Japanese fighters were destroyed in the process but, as they scored nothing, it didn’t really matter in game terms.

So it ended with a score of +790, which was apparently a Disaster. China lost a Flounder and two radars, while the West lost 4 fighters, an Orion, 9 runways, 2 hangars and 12 other VP-worthy installations. Contrary to the outcome described in the briefings, the in-game defences were too strong for China’s arsenal.

Two easy scenarios followed by two very hard ones. If anyone has any insights into how to beat Salvo, I would be interested to know about them. I’m not sure what else I could have done. Maybe I could have timed the DF-10s and KD-20s to arrive together, maybe I’d have hit the Reagan with a little more luck, maybe I underestimated the value of the Special Options (but the scoring system is tough enough already without giving the AI hundreds of points). Otherwise, it’s best to move on.

[Airborne Rifles]

When I played this years ago, if memory serves, the use and timing of the special options was absolutely vital.

[fitzpatv]

Have to say, I don't know how. I've read other AARs about this scenario since I played it and have come to a few conclusions:

- It seems that you need a score of +2000 to win, whereas I finished with +790. Of the remaining 1,210 points, I could have gotten 1,000 (according to these reviews) by sinking the Reagan, 200 for disabling the last two runways and 250 for avoiding all losses. It seems that other players have spent 200 to disable one of the THAAD systems - knocking out both exceeds your budget. The other Special Actions make no sense at all.

- Even if you do this, you can't afford ANYTHING to go wrong. I thought I actually did pretty well to knock-out 9 runways and would not be confident of repeating this. Sinking the carrier requires luck, not just to hit it but also to get a clear shot in the first place, given that it is an imprecise target. You also have a long coastline and, even if you don't send CAP to cover a non-existent threat from the Sea of Japan, as I did, it is hard to guarantee that no US cruise missiles will get through to any targets.

- Clearly, you can't put your aircraft anywhere that the enemy can get at them. 50VP for each loss is prohibitive.

- One player sent the Badgers to attack Guam, though they admitted that flying them over Taiwan and the Philippines was less than realistic. Perhaps it's true (however improbable) that there aren't actually any US fighters or SAMs beyond THAADs on Guam and this allows lots of easy 10VP targets which could be used to improve your budget (as defined above).

- Overall, though, this is one of those scenarios that you cannot guarantee winning (the other AARs suggest that a lot of players have found it hard). As with Chains of War 3, where you need luck to detect the Chinese SSBNs (I've played it a third time, following the one sub slow, one sub fast, running deep, head straight for Hainan approach suggested in the forums and still found nothing), it's a case of playing it again and again until the variables line up for you. Frankly, I don't derive much satisfaction from banging my head against a wall like this. I prefer to think my way around problems instead of relying on getting lucky.

Maybe we all get a bit too fixated on winning and losing with this game. In some ways, the Northern Fury scenarios with no set victory thresholds took the pressure off and you could just play, do your best and see what happened.

Anyway, I'll shortly be taking a look at Chains of War 5 (Nightmare) and will let you know how this one goes in due course.

[Airborne Rifles]

So this inspired me to go back and replay this scenario, as this whole campaign remains my favorite paid DLC from the Command franchise, and I think this scenario in particular really showcased the importance of using/disrupting the whole "kill chain" of sensor-comms-targeting-weapon.

What made this scenario so challenging when first released was that you manually needed to coordinate ToT from several different kinds of weapons attacks with your special action, and getting the timing right is vital. This used to require a lot of spreadsheet work, but now with the War Planner update it's actually easy to overwhelm the American/Korean/Japanese defenses with a little thought and planning.

Here's what I did:

1. Set up a ToT attack with all BM except the DF-21Cs and Ds against the runways on Okinawa and Korea (I allocated the DF-26s against Okinawa as well, 3 per Runway).
2. Set up another ToT attack with your GLCMs and all of the H-6-launched CMs from one of the two airfields against Kunsan and the three Okinawa airfields to strike five minutes AFTER the BMs strike the runways. Apportion one missile to one open parking space/revetment/hangar for maximum destruction/points.
3. Set up your other base of H-6s to launch all of their missiles at Anderson on Guam (I allocated 4 CMs to each of the 5 runways and the rest at the airbase infrastructure as above). You can set a course through international airspace either around the northern or southern side of Taiwan if overflying Taiwan seems to gamey.
4. Launch your ARM- and PL-15-equipped aircraft with enough time to have them in position off Okinawa and Korea just before the BMs arrive.
5. Just before your BMs launch, execute the "Disrupt US Satellite Network" special action. This prevents the US side from gaining early warning of your launches, reducing the amount of time that the Patriot batteries have to react (I think).
6. Also just before launch, execute the "Disrupt Korea THAAD" special action. This ensures that your BMs will get through the Osan and Kunsan.
7. Just before your BMs arrive, launch your ARMs against the Patriot batteries on Okinawa and against the Patriot battery near Osan and the I-HAWK battery near Kunsan. You probably wont score any hits on Okinawa (I actually did have one missile get through to disable a Patriot radar, out of 26 weapons fired) but the real purpose here is to soak up as many Patriot missies as possible just before the BMs arrive. Your aircraft can launch outside of Patriot range and then head for home without much risk of being caught by enemy aircraft.
8. This is when the BMs arrive, and while there was still some return fire from the remaining Patriots, in my run through I easily disabled every runway on Okinawa and Korea, to the point where I wished I had apportioned some of the missies to other targets since so many got through. If your timing is just right your missiles will catch the activating US/Japanese/Korean fighters on the runway, but even if some get airborne your PL-15-armed jets are more than capable of dealing with them as they're forced to choose between engaging your aircraft or the incoming CMs. I also had some PL-12-armed J-11s there for backup, but they never needed to engage.
9. Five minutes later your CMs arrive and absolutely devastate the rest of the airfields.
10. After that, you just wait for an optical or SAR satellite to overfly the Reagan group to give you good targeting. These overly the carrier at pretty regular intervals. Once you have a good fix, launch your DF-21Cs against the Japanese runways and your DF-21Ds against the carrier. At the same time execute the "Disrupt US Naval Surface Communications" special action to reduce the time the ABM-equipped ships in the Reagan group and in the Sea of Japan have to react (when I did my playthrough, I'd already launched the DF-21Cs against the airfields but if I played again I would launch the anti-carrier attacks simultaneously). Again, the BMs easily cratered every target runway in Japan.

At this point my game crashed (playing on an old desktop) but my score was an even 2000, and that's BEFORE anything hit the carrier OR Guam, each of which would have yielded about 1000 points.

One thing about targeting the carrier- you don't want to wait too long because it's sailing SE and will eventually sail out of range of one of your two DF-21D batteries, so if you shoot late you may not have enough missiles to get through the defenses.

Overall, with the War Planner update I love this scenario even more because it allows you to plan and minimizes the micromanaging. I have to disagree that you can't guarantee winning in this scenario. If you use the special actions to disrupt the US kill chain, you can make a triumph score a pretty sure thing.

[BDukes]

Thanks!

Mike

[fitzpatv]

Having just played it again, I have to agree with Joel's/Airborne Rifles' conclusion. Part of the reason why I'm hating the series is that I struggle to put problems down.

For this second attempt (before I read the last update here), I used the strategy recommended by NathanF, to whom thanks and due credit are in order. This involves sending all of the Badgers N to Manchuria and launching a massive cruise missile attack on Misawa airbase (also using the DF-10s near Beijing). In the interim, you launch a ballistic missile attack on the other airbases much as I did the first time and also hit the Reagan with DF-21Ds as opportunity permits.

Again, it was completely impossible to engage satellites, as they simply fly too fast. Any successes achieved by others must have been under different rule or database versions.

It was also impossible to bring the more distant DF-21D battery to bear, as the terrain doesn't allow it to get into range, sending it on a long detour to the W. There is no way around this.

Nonetheless, the ballistic strikes took-out 8 runways (and 12 fighters, for what it was worth). This, of course, is a Disaster with a score of +800 if you achieve nothing else.

The 12 available DF-21Ds scored two hits on the Reagan, doing medium damage with flooding, but this scored nothing. Somehow, no aircraft were destroyed in the process.

The strike on Misawa, however, destroyed 23 large hardened shelters, which are worth 110VP each, plus a hangar for another 10. Even though only two Hawkeyes were eliminated in the process, this mysteriously elevated the score to Triumph proportions at +3,340. Wish I could say this makes sense.

For whatever reason, the US counterattack never materialised this time, so my CAP preparations weren't tested.

Unable to target the Reagan again, I sank the DDG Benfold instead with the other DF-21Ds. No points, but it was satisfying regardless.

All of this relied on knowing (courtesy of Nathan) that hardened shelters were worth 110VP and that there was an abundance of them at Misawa. Playing blind, as I did first-time round, there was no way I could have known about this (or the VP schedule, or the supposed lack of non-ballistic defences on Guam). Draw your own conclusions...