The question to ask the Italians is "Why didn't you stay neutral?" Would of been so much better for Hitler if they did.
It’s an interesting question. I don’t think it makes too much difference to Germany in the long run to be honest – although it would certainly have meant less distraction, less diversion of resources. But enough to tip the scales in the USSR? No, I don’t think so.
But I think Italy is a more interesting question.
Could Italy have stayed neutral? Yes, I think the example of Franco shows us that Italy
could and Mussolini
could have survived into old age running the country.
But the question was “Why didn’t [Italy] stay neutral?” and this is interesting because it’s clear Italy
could have.
Mussolini wasn’t interested in living out his life to a grand old age – he wanted a New Roman Empire – North and East Africa, large parts of south east Europe, parts of France. He not only wanted Mare Nostrum for the Mediterranean, but he wanted an Italy free of the jailers that, as he saw it, were preventing Italy from accessing the oceans of the world.
Italy couldn’t achieve any of this alone. As much as he hated it, often railed against it, and even feared it, Mussolini knew that if his dreams of glory were going to become a reality then Italy would have to throw in its lot with Germany at some point. As he said in September 1939:
I…. believe…. Even if we march on separate paths – that Destiny will nevertheless continue to bind us together. If National Socialist Germany is destroyed by the western democracies, Fascist Italy would face a hard future.
But Mussolini, in his sane moments, knew the extent of Italian limitations. I think that Ciano – who feared Italy getting involved, did try his best to avoid war, but with a boss fixated on ‘Empire’, there really wasn’t much he could do and offer by way of alternatives.
Mussolini and many others in Italy – including many close to Il Duce – knew full well that Italy was not prepared – even for a short war.
The spending in the thirties – on Ethiopia and the Spanish Civil war in particular, meant that Italy was spending money she couldn’t afford on foreign adventures, while ignoring what was needed to be done at home – Lira reserves at the bank of Italy were 20bn in 1927 and just 3bn in 1939. So, in late August 1939, just before war came to Poland, Mussolini had no choice but to tell Hitler of his decision to stay neutral. Both the army and the air force had fuel stocks of less than two months (only the navy had built up reserves of around 12 month). Annual steel production was 2.4 million tons – a tenth of Germany and way behind Britain’s 13.3 million tons. Coal and other vital raw materials were low to zero.
Like Hitler, Mussolini loved numbers (quantity over quality) and as such he was determined to have a big army. But a big army could not be supported given Italy’s industrial position. Instead of say 20 fully equipped division, Mussolini insisted on more than 70. To achieve these ‘numbers’ he had to reduce the manpower in each division, but this did not solve the fact that many of the divisions were simply not properly equipped. At the time of Albania the air force boasted of 3,000 aircraft – a report that year showed less than a thousand – and the mainstay of the fighter arm was a biplane. The navy started the war with two updated WWI battleships (although two more plus two Littorios were on the way), but the submarine service, while enormous, contained boats that were not up to scratch and there was little to nothing by way of naval air co-operation.
So in a moment of clarity, but to his own disgust (Verrat (traitor) is how he was heard to be mumbling to himself), Mussolini told Hitler he couldn’t honour the Pact of Steel. As we’ve seen in previous posts, Mussolini then went through periods of pro-German and positively anti-German moods.
But… nothing had materially changed between September 1939 and June 1940 in terms of Italy’s overall preparedness for war. So why did he declare war? Ultimately there is one reason. Mussolini’s dreams of a New Roman Empire. So, fatefully for Italy, in June 1940 Mussolini thought the war was won and so all he had to do was present a few thousand dead to the peace table, sit back and then grab Italy’s share of the booty. Sadly for Italy, the war wasn’t won and Britain refused to surrender……
So ultimately there was one reason Italy didn’t stay neutral, and that was Benito Mussolini.
