While the theory of WiF is interesting, the operational reality of war is different. It would be a randomly risky move for Japan to try this on the first turn. They would at best be looking at about a 3:2 invasion with their 1-4 Marine division, or a +4 on the 2d10 which would survive on a roll of 14, 17, 19, or 20. (30% chance on 1d10). (Notional of 1 for each invading unit from 2 box, with each Persian port hex a mountain hex; Kongo class BB shore bombardment and CV ground support)
If they added their 2-4 infantry division, it would be a 6:4 invasion (also a +4) which could survive on 13+ . Same 30% on 1d10.
If they added their 1-4 infantry division as well, it would be 7.5:6 and a +3.5 attack, which would survive on 12+ . (I think actually +3.3 as only 2 Kongo class BC have 3 SB factors). Though with 3 units, this would have a 50% chance on 1d10 of one division surviving, which would be disorganized in all 1d10 scenarios. One unit on 2d10 would stay organized on 17, 19, or 20; 2 units could keep one face-up on a 16 as well, and 3 units would land one face-up on 15+.
A 3 unit invasion would also require leaving probably Hainan vacant temporarily, as all 3 units would have to sail from a single port to reach the 2 box in the Persian Gulf with one naval move while the Battle Cruisers would have to use the other naval move to reach the 1 box. It can be a good move to tempt Chinese units in to sitting on a coastal hex, where the IJN can double any land combat, but that also requires another naval move; something in short supply in this operation.
If the invasion fails at 50% or 70% or greater chance, the CW now has all 3 oil in Persia, a friendly no-Partisan country that couldn't be threatened by the Euro-Axis before the CW could easily reinforce it. A 2nd try at invasion would require Japan deploying a supply line to Italian East Africa first, and then another go at dicey landings by their full MAR corps once again against strong notional units, far from the key rail connected port at the head of the Gulf.
if a single Japanese division lands but is disorganized, reinforcements could reach it on the next Japanese impulse or even safely enough just in a Return to Base phase as the CW/Persians probably wouldn't risk their only unit in the country, the Persian CAV. Eventually Japan would still have to move Convoy Points to Italian East Africa, from where they can sail to the Persian Gulf, something that might take until turn 2, depending on how Japan prioritizes their TRS use here. There would be an outside chance miscellaneous CW forces could threaten that move on the ground in East Africa. (& Italy would have to join the war for Japan to base there, but this move would work best in conjunction with an early Italian DOW on the CW).
If a single Japanese division gets really lucky and lands in a Persian port and remains organized, it might have a chance to take the rest of the Persian ports --- iffff the CW were dumb enough to set up the Persian CAV in Teheran rather than at the head of the Gulf. And Japan would also have to race the CW, who could bring in their only likely 'Peacekeeper' unit, their 1-4 Infantry division, via a pair of SCS transport moves most likely, if it started in the UK.
A further campaign from this point would require a Japanese HQ and several ground units and would require probably at least one ground combat in a mountain hex, off the coast and possibly out of range of Japanese CV planes. The Persians could play Chinese with one unit in such a hex, and pick the Blitz table with it. Even if the CW sent nothing but the 1-4 infantry division, it would be a slow, unit intensive struggle for Japan to reach Teheran while holding it's supply line and the oil hexes as the Persians would add their MIL stacked with the British infantry, in mountains, and their CAV would be free to maneuver with various supply line possibilities. But Japan could take Teheran with enough steady commitment of units, unless the CW could free up an actual corps for Persia, not totally simple but not totally difficult, either.
Japan would have the choice to land quite a bit more safely in far SE Persia in a clear hex, but then would face an even longer, slow campaign to reach a Persian port and eventually the key rail port to enable a drive on Teheran.
All of this would require numerous Combined &/or Naval impulses and use of lift assets normally used to reinforce China, where the Japanese could still advance, but quite a bit more ponderously, especially on MWiF's larger map. Mao and Chiang would both likely remain fairly safe throughout 1940.
Persia would be a rich prize for a very bold, and then lucky, Japanese commander. An unlucky Emperor would be off to a rocky start with his European Allies.
< Message edited by brian brian -- 11/25/2018 12:37:27 PM >