Below is an email exchange between me and Mogami. It is related to the Lunacy games though it is not strictly a critique of either my play or his in those games. the >> are Mogami's comments mine are >.
The converstation was started off by an earlier email where I mentioned that it would be nice to know how many troops Japan was losing when I saw the 17,000 casualties at Manila message after one of his shock attacks. It wanders to larger topics of strategy pretty quickly.
>> Hi, You can figure out how many Japanese you are actually killing by
>> tracking the points for land units. I think it's 1 poit for every 3
>> (Chinese are 1 for 6 and USA are 1 for 2. Other Allied units are 1 for 3
>> I think those are the ratios but I'm not certain but prtetty sure its 1
>> Chinese a dn 1 for 3 Japanese with USA units being the most expensive.
> This is true, but it is not very user freindly. Every now and then I
> but I don't keep a spreadsheet. Once in a great while I happen to check
> before you lauch a big attack and then I get some idea what actually
>> Of course you have no choice you must fight. I think the Sir Robin a
>> mistake. The Allies have a vast reserve of manpower but what they don't
>> early on is time. When ever a military force retreats it creates a vacum
>> that draws the enemy after.
> I agree with this, but I think it is useful to do a theater by theater
> analysis. For example India does not have the manpower reserve, it is in
> the USA, Australia and China. Malaya is IMHO scattered and piecemeal. So
> are the Dutch, but you took them out so fast if was not really possible to
> concentrate them.
>>If you have sufficent force to hold the enemy
>> then retreat serves no purpose and if you don't then you will fight a
>> battle at a different location. The only time a retreat makes sense is
>> your forces are scattered and can be taken peice meal for no benifit but
>> withdraw will allow sufficent force to concentrate and better ground can
>> chosen for the battle made after the enemy has wore themselves out
>> advanceing. If you can collect forces to the rear and win a battle there
>> then retreat is ok however what about when sufficebt force can be rasied
>> requires a period of time? In these cases a force must hold forward of
>> final defensive line and buy time. The Allies have more then enough to
>> replace everything on map provided they still have a line that can be
>> defended. If it were possible to teleport the entire garrsion of PI to
>> base the Allied player could chose I would have it remain in PI because
>> bases located there do not provide any advantage for future Japanese
>> Offensive operations. If there was no PI to capture then the Japanese
>> be operating against bases that would serve to further advances and the
>> units assigned to defend these outposts would still be lost without
>> providing any benifit in time.
> Agreed, even if it were possible to evacuate Manila and move the army to
> Rabual, what difference would it make. Rabaul will fall and the Japanese
> will have a huge army just North of Australia. When you take Manila you
> will have a huge army in Manila, which is much farther away.
>> The Japanese problem in WITP is not manpower or supply it is time. They
>> achive all their goals before the enemy grows too strong.
>> It is not geographical locations that matter. It is the abilty to
>> locate,isolate and destroy signnicant Allied material at a pace more
>> then it arrives as replacements.
>> The Allied player to be assured victroy in any battle off the mainland of
>> Asia has to gather a force capable of defeating 12 divisions and 350
>> borne and 1k+ landbased air.
> In the early war I think this is true for both sides, but concentrating it
> is nearly impossible for the Allies and difficult for the Japanese.
>> In lieu of this he has to maintain a position that ties down a large
>> of the Japanese so that this force cannot mass against another location.
>> Between Singapore and PI the Allied player who conducts a thoughtful
>> can buy at least 90 days and then in addition the time required to
>> rest/refit/prep/transport the required force to a new operation. If 12
>> are tied down in PI then every single Allied base can be held by Bdes or
>> and with just a little air and naval support be quite secure.
>> When the Allied player conducts a Sir Robin all he is doing is relocating
>> the destruction of his forces. The Japanese will simply go where they
>> they can do the most damage and they will not have to have earned this
>> freedom of movement.
> Some Japanese players fail to understand this, thinking that the early war
> is only about territory. But it is about time, territory and destroying
> enemy forces. For comparison your wipeout of the NEI is a near perfect
> for the Japanese, you took them out very fast, destroyed almost all the
> forces involved so they can't come back after you in the future, and
> the position quickly as well, giving you plenty of time to organize. My
> defense of Malaya in the fear and loathing game was equally good for the
> Allies. I held the place for 90 days, giving Allied forces plenty of time
> to prepare defenses elsewhere, and then got the army out without
> losses to fight again. I got the time, and I got the forces, all I gave
> was the territory.
>> The SRA under most circumstance should still be holding Japanese land/air
>> and Naval forces till at least March. April would be consumed refiting
>> resting so it would be May before any Japanese force would be arriving at
>> Allied rear area. If the Allied player has devoted his efforts to
>> the enemy intent then by May he should have the bases defended. InMay
>> the Allied player does not defend a base by having force to defeat 12 div
>> but by having the means to prevent it's transport.
> This is easier said than done, and cannot really be done everywhere in the
> time frame you describe. But it is true that the range of offensive
> available to the Japanese starts shrinking in May, if the Allied player
> been tenacious and clever in his defense of the front line. On the other
> hand if he has fed the Japanese player some easy victories or pulled back
> fast then the Japanese can rampage a few months longer. I think Hoepner
> a good job in the Italian Job, and now that the latter part of 1942 is
> rolling around he is just beginning to lose momentum. Adm. Laurent's game
> Vs. Pompack will also be interesting. As for our game by May there will
> places that should (who knows what luck will do in the end?) be able to
> a Japanese invasion force even if it comes loaded with everything, and
> will be other places that cannot win that fight. Guessing where your
> or I am preparing is part of the fun.
>> This leaves only Burma as a Japanese objective because no transport is
>> requried however the poor supply route on the Japanese side of the front
>> the effect of reducing any force by over 50 percent. Since the attacker
>> requires 2-1 ratio plus fort level a single Allied div dug in level nine
>> would require 11-1 odds to be lost in a single attack and the Japanese
>> cannot hope to be able to launch multiple attacks because his units will
>> arrive with less then 50 percent required supply.
>> Allied players lose India because they allow Japanese units fresh from
>> of combat in SRA to be transported by sea with supply in the period
>> air is weak against naval targets. I don't think you'll find a Allied
>> player losing India because SAA marched across Burma in May 1942.
> I believe that is true, but I also believe that the Army in Malaya can be
> better used in India for the reasons you describe. Without the Malaya
> the British cannot concentrate the forces they need to stop the seaborne
> invasion. They could pull the troops out of Burma, but if Burma is vacant
> then the Japanese can come through that front, also for the reasons you
> gave. We will see how this plays out over the next 5 or 6 months.
>> No the Allied player must fight. Even if it means losing existing units.
>> There is no reason to throw away ships or even air group formations
>> these can retire when they no longer serve a purpose. The combat units in
>> SRA eventually run out of room to retreat but they would also run out of
>> room to retreat in India in the same time period. The differance is in
>> time it takes to reduce the SRA the Japanese run out of the time they can
>> transport combat formations to where they can mass ratios. The Japanese
>> can't invade Pearl or SF once they have 400+ aircraft defending. The SRA
>> should extract a considerable amount of Japanese transport. The Allied
>> player can afford 5 ac per transport sunk and be breaking even. If he
>> a few 10 point ships he is ahead in the bargin.
> All true, but the Japanese have to cooperate in that sinking. I'm
> absolutely certain that I launched more aircraft sorties against your
> shipping than any of the other Lunacy players, and I got almost no bombing
> hits. A clever Japanese player can greatly reduce their exposure to
> bombing attacks. In the air I even pulled stuff into the SRA from
> and India. We just posted intel screens on the Lunacy Game thread and I
> sunk twice as many ships as Nomad, but it was still only 22. Against less
> careful Japanese players I have always sunk over 100 ships by February.
>> If Singapore does not require a Japanese division then the Allied player
>> requires a land unit capable of defeating a Japanese division in every
>> that division can reach. There is always the chance the Japanese player
>> will chose the wrong target but it is wrong to fight a campaign where
>> is a deciding factor.
>> The garrison of malaya in dec 1942 requires at least half the available
>> Japanes force to defeat and then consumes 60-75 days before refit can
>> (A Japanese div that does not refit and prep for next operation goes into
>> that operation already considerablty reduced making the Allied defense
>> much more secure. )
>> The Allied player has an easy task at start. His starting forces are
>> isolated and can't transport out so they must fight. His reinforcements
>> arrive at his most important bases so he simply secures one and then the
>> next as forces arrive. At some point without suffering any loss to units
>> arrving after Dec 7 1941 he will come into contact with the Japanese. The
>> Japanese will be at the limit of their expansion while the Allies will be
>> compressed. The Japanese cannot even dream of being able to provide
>> point with defense capable of defeating a max Allied effort. The Allies
>> will have force enough to succeed and then consolidate their position
>> moving on. This is the phase the Japanese never enjoy. The period where
>> areas can be incorperated into the defense. The Japanese do not gain
>> strength to defend unless they also win major victories against Allied
>> forces and destroy material or unless their advance is more rapid then
>> Allied growth. It is exactly here where the Sir Robin fails the Allied
>> player. Thinking to save material (which he has in ample amounts) he
>> up time (which Japan begins the war short of)
> As discussed I agree in principle, but I good Allied player will apply a
> nuanced strategy that takes local conditions into account.
>> Whether or not I can achive these objectives depends on our relative
>> to conduct operations. If I fail as Japan it will only highlight what a
>> player I am in fact. (I'm too sloppy)
> I think you play too many games at a time. I could never hold them all in
> my brain at a level of understanding that I would find acceptable.
>> I'm sure there exists somewhere a brain that can calculate exactly the
>> Japan loses the war if they have not before then secured their
>> Understand these objectives are not alwyas bases of high point value but
>> instead are location from which damage can be nflicted on enemy at a
>> that results in 4-1 in 43 or 3-1 in 44. Since a lost Cv requires 550 days
>> for Allied player to recover a major set back early in 43 can lose the
>> (simply because he would be unable to mount operations that produced
>> enough to overcome the Japanese 3-1. The Japanese get 2-1 in 42 simply by
>> doing the bare required operations of securing SRA resources.