From: Jacksonville, FL, USA
The loss of Hezbollah's power in the country has upset both Iran and Syria and the war of words that has been brewing for the past 12 months is about to get red hot. Syria is about to annex Lebanon. Even Russia is licking it's lips since it's no secret that Putin covets a new naval base in the eastern Mediterranean.
On this, any annexation of Lebanon by Syria would almost certainly elicited an Israeli response. Again, not sure what would be different than the current Syrian-IAF engagements currently being fought over Syria.
Not sure which port Russia would use in Lebanon that is better for them then Tartus, Syria. Tripoli is rather small, Beirut a mess with a large city wrapped around it and not sure they would be able to place S-400s in Beirut to protect the port. BIA is a decent airport with new runways since I was there in 1983, but very vulnerable to attack from the sea. I think a decent scenario could have the Russians moving from Syria to Beirut with both the port and air base (but not sure they would even consider that).
Not really sure how Hezbollah is going to loose their power base through. The Lebanese Army and Hezbollah are currently at odds in Beirut and have actually had a few cashes in recent days. A spill over of the Syrian Civil War into a new Lebanese Civil War between the Army and Hezbollah with the West/Israel and Russia/Syria openly supporting both sides (respectively) is a possibility you might consider.
"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985
I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!