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OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/8/2021 12:35:13 PM   
BBfanboy


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It looks like the Pacific Allies are getting serious about standing up to China's threatening posture in the SCSea. I was not aware the F-35B was now in operational deployment or that Japan had some.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/china-japan-taiwan-u-k-canada-australia-1.6204130

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
Post #: 1
RE: OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/8/2021 12:38:27 PM   
BBfanboy


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And more news from the area ...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/damaged-us-nuclear-submarine-operating-in-one-of-world-s-most-difficult-undersea-environments/ar-AAPgtPu?ocid=BingNewsSearch

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 2
RE: OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/9/2021 4:29:22 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13441
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

And more news from the area ...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/damaged-us-nuclear-submarine-operating-in-one-of-world-s-most-difficult-undersea-environments/ar-AAPgtPu?ocid=BingNewsSearch


I wonder if it was mating season for a whale . . .

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(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 3
RE: OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/17/2021 12:10:22 AM   
tolsdorff

 

Posts: 204
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

It looks like the Pacific Allies are getting serious about standing up to China's threatening posture in the SCSea. I was not aware the F-35B was now in operational deployment or that Japan had some.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/china-japan-taiwan-u-k-canada-australia-1.6204130



1. Seeing that the U.S. controls about 99 % of the pacific, I am very unsure how China could ever be accused of having a threatening posture.
2. With regards to Taiwan. China reacts like the U.S. reacted when the Soviets were active in Cuba. Both rightfully so.
3. And most importantly. Taiwan and China are still the same country. Taiwan has been Chinesified the last 60 years after the nationalists fell back on it. Over 97 % of Taiwan is Chinese. So it is still their Chinese civil war. Let them fight it.

What would you feel if some stronger power started protecting the South after 1964? That would not have made any sense and most of all, it would not have made a structural change. Just a temporal imbalance which would have lead to much more bloodshed in the long run.
Whether anyone likes it or not, Taiwan and China are still on the path to reunite, sooner or later.

My guess is that the U.S. does not care so much about the freedom of the Taiwanese.
The U.S.
- 1. just do not want to lose a major economic and military asset in that region AND
- 2. they do not want to give the PRC a foothold for a future pacific power struggle.


On the other hand, one could have said the same thing about Israel in the 60's and 70's, but it is still there and stronger than ever.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 4
RE: OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/17/2021 12:52:06 AM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: tolsdorff

What would you feel if some stronger power started protecting the South after 1964? That would not have made any sense and most of all, it would not have made a structural change. Just a temporal imbalance which would have lead to much more bloodshed in the long run.


Why would any country start to protect the South after 1964? Did they want to get nuked?

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to tolsdorff)
Post #: 5
RE: OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/17/2021 3:45:17 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 17899
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quote:

ORIGINAL: tolsdorff


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

It looks like the Pacific Allies are getting serious about standing up to China's threatening posture in the SCSea. I was not aware the F-35B was now in operational deployment or that Japan had some.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/china-japan-taiwan-u-k-canada-australia-1.6204130



1. Seeing that the U.S. controls about 99 % of the pacific, I am very unsure how China could ever be accused of having a threatening posture.
2. With regards to Taiwan. China reacts like the U.S. reacted when the Soviets were active in Cuba. Both rightfully so.
3. And most importantly. Taiwan and China are still the same country. Taiwan has been Chinesified the last 60 years after the nationalists fell back on it. Over 97 % of Taiwan is Chinese. So it is still their Chinese civil war. Let them fight it.

What would you feel if some stronger power started protecting the South after 1964? That would not have made any sense and most of all, it would not have made a structural change. Just a temporal imbalance which would have lead to much more bloodshed in the long run.
Whether anyone likes it or not, Taiwan and China are still on the path to reunite, sooner or later.

My guess is that the U.S. does not care so much about the freedom of the Taiwanese.
The U.S.
- 1. just do not want to lose a major economic and military asset in that region AND
- 2. they do not want to give the PRC a foothold for a future pacific power struggle.


On the other hand, one could have said the same thing about Israel in the 60's and 70's, but it is still there and stronger than ever.


You appear to assess everything in the narrow sense of how it affects the USA. What about China claiming ALL of the fishing grounds and resources in the South China Sea? Are we to let the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations starve?

If China gets away with creating a new, militarized island in the Spratly group, how long before they do the same in other shallow waters?

How long before successful adventures in that area lead to clashes in space?

It seems obvious to me that the current CCP leadership is trying to get world domination by economic ties and military threats. It would be much better if they joined the rules-based world order established by the US and most western countries and just prospered through fair trade among nations. The fair part needs some work, but we were getting there.

But now nations are retreating into their shells instead of standing up for the progress made - the EU for example is in trouble over immigration policy, among other things. We need to stand back and look at the globe as an environment that is interconnected, and there is no country that can turtle up and ignore what happens elsewhere.

Staging military exercises to create caution among expansionist nations is one way of buying time until we can get a general framework for global cooperation about using the world's resources.


_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to tolsdorff)
Post #: 6
RE: OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/17/2021 7:22:50 AM   
DesertWolf101

 

Posts: 1432
Joined: 11/26/2016
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: tolsdorff


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

It looks like the Pacific Allies are getting serious about standing up to China's threatening posture in the SCSea. I was not aware the F-35B was now in operational deployment or that Japan had some.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/china-japan-taiwan-u-k-canada-australia-1.6204130



1. Seeing that the U.S. controls about 99 % of the pacific, I am very unsure how China could ever be accused of having a threatening posture.
2. With regards to Taiwan. China reacts like the U.S. reacted when the Soviets were active in Cuba. Both rightfully so.
3. And most importantly. Taiwan and China are still the same country. Taiwan has been Chinesified the last 60 years after the nationalists fell back on it. Over 97 % of Taiwan is Chinese. So it is still their Chinese civil war. Let them fight it.

What would you feel if some stronger power started protecting the South after 1964? That would not have made any sense and most of all, it would not have made a structural change. Just a temporal imbalance which would have lead to much more bloodshed in the long run.
Whether anyone likes it or not, Taiwan and China are still on the path to reunite, sooner or later.

My guess is that the U.S. does not care so much about the freedom of the Taiwanese.
The U.S.
- 1. just do not want to lose a major economic and military asset in that region AND
- 2. they do not want to give the PRC a foothold for a future pacific power struggle.


On the other hand, one could have said the same thing about Israel in the 60's and 70's, but it is still there and stronger than ever.


You appear to assess everything in the narrow sense of how it affects the USA. What about China claiming ALL of the fishing grounds and resources in the South China Sea? Are we to let the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations starve?

If China gets away with creating a new, militarized island in the Spratly group, how long before they do the same in other shallow waters?

How long before successful adventures in that area lead to clashes in space?

It seems obvious to me that the current CCP leadership is trying to get world domination by economic ties and military threats. It would be much better if they joined the rules-based world order established by the US and most western countries and just prospered through fair trade among nations. The fair part needs some work, but we were getting there.

But now nations are retreating into their shells instead of standing up for the progress made - the EU for example is in trouble over immigration policy, among other things. We need to stand back and look at the globe as an environment that is interconnected, and there is no country that can turtle up and ignore what happens elsewhere.

Staging military exercises to create caution among expansionist nations is one way of buying time until we can get a general framework for global cooperation about using the world's resources.



Well said

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 7
RE: OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/17/2021 9:49:48 AM   
Alfred

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tolsdorff


1. Seeing that the U.S. controls about 99 % of the pacific, I am very unsure how China could ever be accused of having a threatening posture.
2. With regards to Taiwan. China reacts like the U.S. reacted when the Soviets were active in Cuba. Both rightfully so.
3. And most importantly. Taiwan and China are still the same country. Taiwan has been Chinesified the last 60 years after the nationalists fell back on it. Over 97 % of Taiwan is Chinese. So it is still their Chinese civil war. Let them fight it.

What would you feel if some stronger power started protecting the South after 1964? That would not have made any sense and most of all, it would not have made a structural change. Just a temporal imbalance which would have lead to much more bloodshed in the long run.
Whether anyone likes it or not, Taiwan and China are still on the path to reunite, sooner or later.

My guess is that the U.S. does not care so much about the freedom of the Taiwanese.
The U.S.
- 1. just do not want to lose a major economic and military asset in that region AND
- 2. they do not want to give the PRC a foothold for a future pacific power struggle.


On the other hand, one could have said the same thing about Israel in the 60's and 70's, but it is still there and stronger than ever.



A full response would inevitably stray into the political domain and result in the thread being locked by Matrix. Nonetheless, a few direct observations can be made.

1. There is no logical basis for claiming the USA "controls" 99% of the Pacific. Not under international law, not in military capabilities, not in cultural terms. Were any country truly in control of 99%, it could literally do whatever it wanted such as force all countries to adopt laws solely drafted in Washington, demand unfettered economic and military access of any littoral state, demand unconditional support in every international forum, (such as the UN, the WHO) from every single littoral state.

2. Actually the characteristics of a 99% control mentioned above are constantly being exercised by China from what effectively are its vassal states.

3. Comparing Taiwan to Cuba is a very superficial assessment.

Firstly, other than a few voices in the C19th, the USA policy towards Cuba was never one based on annexation whereas the PRC has always been one of annexing Taiwan (see point 4 below).

Secondly, the Monroe Doctrine has never been discarded. The arrival of Soviet strategic offensive nuclear weapons and personnel to operate the infrastructure, together with the economic, cultural and political ties between the USSR and Cuba, represented a C20th recolonisation of the Western Hemisphere which fully triggered the conditions of the Monroe Doctrine. Taiwan is simply not comparable, no strategic offensive weapons aimed at the PRC are based on Taiwan, the Taiwanese military infrastructure is run by the locals themselves, not foreigners. Nor is Taiwan tied economically, culturally or politically to the USA. In fact if anything it is economically tied to the PRC and considering it is barred from just about any international forum it can't be seriously seen as a mouthpiece for Washington.

Thirdly, the Monroe Doctrine was, and remains effectively, a collective defense posture to deter the Europeans, primarily the British, Spanish and French from attempting to return and recapture their former colonies which had only recently achieved independence. It was essentially an early iteration of NATO's article 5. At the time even the USA was not in a strong position to meet on its own a determined European return, hence a common collective defensive doctrine made strategic sense. It was never an offensive doctrine; it did not attempt to eject European countries (Britain, Spain, the Netnerlands, Denmark, Russia, France) from their existing colonies.

4. The claim that Taiwan has always been Chinese territory is only marginally more soundly based than the 9 Dashes, the latter which is a totally post 1945 fictional construct. Anyone who claims Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan should also logically claim sovereignty over Okinawa (and the whole of the Ryukyu Islands) and both North and South Korea as those territories, up until about 500 years ago formally acknowledged themselves to be vassal states and regularly paid tribute to Peking.

The island of Taiwan was more akin to the Barbary coast, effectively under the control of pirates until the end of the C17th. It then became Japanese territory after the First Sino-Japanese war, hence it has never been a de jure part of the Chinese Republic, it being occupied by KMT units pending the peace treaty to end WWII.

Look at the people themselves. The locals far outnumber those who fled the mainland. Poll after poll confirms an overwhelming belief amongst the population that they are Taiwanese, not Chinese, with their own separate institutions. to deny them their own perspective is akin to demanding that the Chinese diaspora throughout Asia (Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia to name only the most prominent) trumps those territories separation from the motherland.

In short, just as with your 99% American control of the Pacific, your 97& of Taiwanese are Chinese, is just a figure plucked out of thin air.

5. Chinese military academies teach the First, Second and Third Island Chain doctrine as the long term strategy. That is an out and out offensive doctrine. Were it truly a defensive focus, they would stop at the First Island Chain. It is impossible to see why occupation of the Hawaiian islands (amongst other) which is the Third Island Chain, is necessary in order to defend China from invasion.

Anyone who knows anything about military capabilities, is well aware that the First Island Chain is very much a contested area where neither side can be certain of winning a military fight. Certainly no one should anticipate a Desert Storm or 6-Day War procession for the Americans. So much for America controlling 99% of the Pacific.

It just isn't the offensive strategic military doctrines which form the Chinese military curriculum, the weapon systems which are currently being produced are all of an offensive nature, to be used well beyond the First Island Chain. Combine with the economic actions of stopping Vietnam from drilling for oil in its Economic Zone, or poor Filipino fishermen from fishing their traditional fishing grounds, there is only one possible conclusion. One should not wait until the fait accompli is presented before opposing it. Would WWII have been prevented if people had bothered to take seriously Mein Kampf? May be, may be not, but often the best place to hide a secret or one's ultimate goals, is in plain sight.


The bottom line is that China, as a Great Power, has never operated in a multi polar world. It has no doctrinal, institutional or cultural history background to inform its decision making in a multipolar world of Great Powers. It is used to having weak neighbours who kowtow to it. It recent international behaviour, it's wolf diplomacy, is just a return to its SOP which was so rudely interrupted between 1840 and 1940. Not being top dog, with everyone kowtowing to it, is simply unacceptable to them.

Alfred

(in reply to tolsdorff)
Post #: 8
RE: OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/17/2021 11:48:44 AM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

It looks like the Pacific Allies are getting serious about standing up to China's threatening posture in the SCSea. I was not aware the F-35B was now in operational deployment or that Japan had some.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/china-japan-taiwan-u-k-canada-australia-1.6204130
warspite1

End of the day we are human beings; what makes us great as a species and has driven us to such great achievements will ultimately lead to our destruction. To my mind its simply a race - will we kill the planet first or kill each other?

Worrying times in so many areas at present and so depressing .


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Post #: 9
RE: OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/17/2021 11:52:22 AM   
btd64


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Well put Alfred. And with that I would recommend relaxing things or the powers that be may close it down....GP

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(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 10
RE: OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/17/2021 5:28:59 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

It looks like the Pacific Allies are getting serious about standing up to China's threatening posture in the SCSea. I was not aware the F-35B was now in operational deployment or that Japan had some.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/china-japan-taiwan-u-k-canada-australia-1.6204130
warspite1

End of the day we are human beings; what makes us great as a species and has driven us to such great achievements will ultimately lead to our destruction. To my mind its simply a race - will we kill the planet first or kill each other?

Worrying times in so many areas at present and so depressing .


There are signs in both directions about mankind destroying itself - or saving itself. The great challenges facing us might finally force real dialogue and recognition of worldwide standards of conduct - we can't get along unless we all agree on the rules. Combating climate change is one such opportunity.

Desperate migration of dispossessed peoples is another opportunity - rather than letting the countries on the borders of such a migration absorb the huge numbers of people, a worldwide system could spread out their movement. What it requires most is a willingness of nations that got rich on colonialism and cheap/slave labour to admit that they owe a debt to the struggling nations they pillaged and either take in their migrants or build their economies and political systems to support their populations. Corruption in developing nations is only a tradition because they cannot adequately pay their civil servants.

You may have guessed I am a fan of Gene Roddenbury's "Star Trek" vision of what humanity could achieve if we simply stopped fighting each other, gave everyone what they need to survive and turn our attentions to finding other planets to inhabit. We won't get there in one giant leap, so baby steps count.

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 11
RE: OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/17/2021 5:36:15 PM   
BBfanboy


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Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: btd64

Well put Alfred. And with that I would recommend relaxing things or the powers that be may close it down....GP

I agree - Alfred is knowledgeable and incisive - as always. I intend this to be more of a philosophical discussion than an attack on any particular nation and policy. As Alfred points out, it is the frame of mind of Chinese leaders that leads them to try and recreate the days of Chinese glory. We need to convince them that there are better ways to celebrate their achievements than confrontation. That requires greater contact with each other, not bunkering up in our own bubble.

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 12
RE: OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/17/2021 10:28:08 PM   
12doze12


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.

< Message edited by 12doze12 -- 11/2/2021 12:07:34 AM >

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Post #: 13
RE: OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/18/2021 2:07:42 AM   
CaptBeefheart


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Taiwan and China have diverged since 1949. They are quite different societies. Reunification is by no means considered inevitable by the vast majority of people on Taiwan.

Even here in South Korea it's only old folks who want reunification, and as they die off, so does the sentiment. The younger generation looks at the North as an uncool dystopian albatross they want nothing to do with.

If you look at South Korea's recent hardware-buying plans, it's pretty obvious they are looking beyond our Friends up North and seeking to counter China, although you won't get the current administration to admit it. There's an arms race in NE Asia, and it's not being triggered by North Korea.

Cheers,
CB

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Post #: 14
RE: OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/18/2021 6:02:21 AM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Taiwan and China have diverged since 1949. They are quite different societies. Reunification is by no means considered inevitable by the vast majority of people on Taiwan.

Even here in South Korea it's only old folks who want reunification, and as they die off, so does the sentiment. The younger generation looks at the North as an uncool dystopian albatross they want nothing to do with.

If you look at South Korea's recent hardware-buying plans, it's pretty obvious they are looking beyond our Friends up North and seeking to counter China, although you won't get the current administration to admit it. There's an arms race in NE Asia, and it's not being triggered by North Korea.

Cheers,
CB

Well if the arms race brings enough pause to the situation for some good leaders to work things out (the way Sadat and Begin worked out peace between Israel and Egypt), I'm for it. If those arms get used ... not so much. Weapons are just so lethal now that a full scale conventional war is just as unthinkable as a nuclear one. Let's not go there!

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 15
RE: OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/18/2021 9:02:51 AM   
CaptBeefheart


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No argument from me, BBFanboy. I live in this neighborhood. Let's hope peace through strength wins out in the end.

Anyone who has Command (CMANO, CMO) can play around and see how lethal this environment is. I'm all in favor of keeping the warfare at the pixel level.

Cheers,
CB

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Post #: 16
RE: OT - Naval Deployment In the South China Sea - 10/18/2021 9:02:36 PM   
fcooke

 

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reunification of SK with NK would very much reduce the plight of NK people. China however should not be allowed to bully Formosa. And I suspect the folks on Taiwan would fight hard against aggression. That said I feel the US should sell Taiwan whatever they want to buy, and keep a carrier battle group parked nearby 7x24x365. And dealing with China sooner than later would likely reduce the casualties/collateral damage, but I am likely straying too close to politics here.

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 17
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