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Odds calculations - 8/28/2021 6:31:39 PM   
klschult

 

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Joined: 2/19/2020
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The presented odds for each attack are medians and not averages. Actual losses will be +1 or -1 but it appears the results are "biased" (in the statistical meaning) in the sense that these outcomes are not equally likely and consistently in favor of the (Axis or Allied) defender.

I ran 10 trials of 6 attacks by German air on Canadian corps, in a city, with fog of war off. If odds were unbiased I should have caused 90 strenght points in losses but only caused 80 with 6 runs of 6 attacks being lower than expected, 3 runs being higher, and one matching expectations. (Results of higher losses are possibly curtailed slightly by up to 3 points because the defender died.)

Losses to the attacker are left curtailed in the sense that they can never be less than zero. However one third of all 60 attacks resulted in an attacker loss.

This somewhat matches my experiences from previous games.

Does anybody know any specifics that would lead to understanding how results differ from the odds presented?

< Message edited by klschult -- 8/28/2021 6:33:20 PM >


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