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Can we get more information on the odds of naval interceptions.

 
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Can we get more information on the odds of naval interc... - 8/10/2021 6:05:48 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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Here is what I know (or think I know) about the odds of intercepting or locating an enemy fleet:
1. The higher your reconnaissance level of the enemy fleets hex or destination hex the greater your chance of intercepting.
2. It is easier to intercept enemy fleets in coastal hexes (including ports) than it is to intercept them in sea hexes.
3. It is easier to intercept enemy fleets that are in Fleet mode than it is to intercept enemy fleets in Raider mode.
4. The more units in the fleet the easier it is to intercept.
5. Fleets containing transports are easier to intercept.
6. The worse the weather the less likely the interception.

But I really don't know how important each of these is or really have any idea what my odds of intercepting or being intercepted are in any particular situation. I understand wanting to keep some things under the hood, but in this case I think a little more information would be historical. At a minimum each side should know whether a particular move is high risk or low risk.

As an example from my current game with Magic Missile, I as the Axis had 2 transports carrying infantry divisions off the port of Narvik. On the Allies turn MM made 2 successful interception attempts on one of the infantry divisions as shown below. Applying the factors above: 3 of the 5 factors (Very Low UK recon, Raider Mode and 1 unit fleet) were in my favour while the other two (coastal hex and transports) were not. So I have no idea if his chance of intercepting was low (less than 25%), medium (26% to 74%) or high (75%+). Since he intercepted me twice I can only assume his odds were at least medium. Is that right?




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< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 8/10/2021 6:10:03 AM >
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RE: Can we get more information on the odds of naval in... - 8/10/2021 6:25:22 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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Than on my turn as Axis I moved my remaining infantry division into the port. But it was intercepted and took 6 hits. I was able to tell that of the 4 Allied fleets in interception range of Narvik 3 of them were capable of intercepting me. My intelligence said that the 4th fleet had transports. This meant that the RN had 5 interceptions left. Since I knew my Division was in no shape to withstand an invasion I had to transport a stronger unit in. This meant moving the Kriegsmarine a few units at a time into Narvik. Almost all of the moves were intercepted. Other than the first one, the screenshots below were taken after all my moves. Although I won some battles, the RN fleets did not retreat. But in the one battle I lost my fleet did retreat. Why is that? So I suppose now the RN will sink this damaged CA.

In any event, it would appear from this that friendly fleets have a high chance of intercepting enemy fleets in coastal hexes even if they have very low recon in that hex.




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RE: Can we get more information on the odds of naval in... - 8/10/2021 6:31:14 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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This seems to be borne out in my mirror game with MM where his German Fleet found and sunk my UK Transport carrying a division adjacent to Narvik. Again his recon of the hex containing the transport would have been very low.




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RE: Can we get more information on the odds of naval in... - 8/10/2021 6:44:20 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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Luckily for me I had a good chunk of the RN (including 2 CVs) in range of the German fleet. Now it would be my turn to sink the German Navy in the coastal hexes. As I moved my battle fleets in the German fleets did intercept me as they had to be in Fleet mode in order to attack the transport. So there were 2 fleet engagements where we each lost a DD and other wise the Germans suffered more hits than me. But my battle fleet attack and all 4 of my CV attacks failed to find the German Fleet. So now I am confused again. Why was it so simple for the UK fleet in one game and the Axis fleet in the other game to find the transport fleets? And why was it so simple for the RN to intercept all of the moving German fleets? yet at the same time so difficult for the RN to find the German fleet in the same waters?

I am not saying any of this is wrong. I am just saying it would be good to know what the odds are of intercepting/locating an enemy fleet in any given situation. Than at least i would know if I am just being unlucky or what.




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RE: Can we get more information on the odds of naval in... - 8/10/2021 9:24:11 AM   
MagicMissile


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I havent checked the latest turn but it sounds like something survived of my German navy I fully made my peace with the fact I might lose it all :). But I agree would be nice to have some more numbers so one knows what to expect.

Same goes with one of my pet peeves since the start. The insane randomness of the BoA. I sortied with 2 stacks of 3 subs each fully upgraded. And the have done miserably basically sinking one merchant for each sub step loss. But sometimes 2 stacks of 3 subs can wreck havoc. This very large range of outcomes is annoying and something that should be looked at in WP 2 I think at least show how it is all calculated and what outcomes are possible. Icing on the cake a UK bomber than sank a sub. That is kind of ok because I didnt have to move it within range of landbased air so my mistake I deserve it but I know how rarely they find anything so still annoying .

/MM

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RE: Can we get more information on the odds of naval in... - 8/10/2021 12:35:21 PM   
Nirosi

 

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There is a table on page 79-80. Not the easiest one to read but should give a good info close enough to the exact %. The hardest number to know would be your own fleet ID number.

Also, I believe a costal does not automatically improve the chances to intercept. It must be one of your coastal (if enemy come to your coast) if I understand correctly that table. Also, strangely, weather is not included in the chances (maybe it affects the ID number?).

In your first example, just transporting an inf improves two spots on the table (could be from 45% to 70% chances if from spot 5 to 7).

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RE: Can we get more information on the odds of naval in... - 8/10/2021 1:02:45 PM   
boldairade

 

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not to hijack, but another question regarding this:

if i see your fleet and i want to attack it on the open seas, how do i do that without getting surprised?

seems to happen about 75% of the time.

i mean, i'm hunting your fleet, why would i get ambushed?

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RE: Can we get more information on the odds of naval in... - 8/10/2021 2:05:34 PM   
AlvaroSousa


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The tables give you an idea of what the chances are. Then there are modifiers. Then there is luck.

A raider trying to avoid combat has a base 5% chance of being found.
A transport fleet 16% (-1 raider, +2 transport fleet)

With multiple fleets their ID can increase. I recently increased it from 40% to 75% on a failed search.

Once you hit around a 5 spot number the spotting chances are roughly 50%.

Then there is fleet size and CV air strength modifier.

It's not suppose to give you an exact picture. One of my goals was no min-maxxing in WarPlan. Use some common sense.

If you are trying to sneak a German division past 4 UK fleets outside of Narvik there is a high chance that fleet will be killed.

The naval system is constantly being updated. One thing I am considering is increasing spotting when on a coast no matter who owns it.
Multiple fleet modifiers like in the above situation where any fleet without range adds +1% per group.
And auto-retreat for transport fleets that get intercepted.

_____________________________

Creator Kraken Studios
- WarPlan
- WarPlan Pacific

Designer Strategic Command
- Brute Force (mod) SC2
- Assault on Communism SC2
- Assault on Democracy SC2
- Map Image Importer SC3

(in reply to boldairade)
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RE: Can we get more information on the odds of naval in... - 8/10/2021 2:19:59 PM   
Nirosi

 

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quote:

One thing I am considering is increasing spotting when on a coast no matter who owns it.


Hi Alvaro,

I think that is a very good idea, but I would still give a bigger bonus to the owner to account for the chances (even if small) they are spotted from shore or from small patrol crafts possibly (air and naval) there but not accounted by the game's scale.

(in reply to AlvaroSousa)
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RE: Can we get more information on the odds of naval in... - 8/10/2021 3:38:22 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MagicMissile

I havent checked the latest turn but it sounds like something survived of my German navy I fully made my peace with the fact I might lose it all :). But I agree would be nice to have some more numbers so one knows what to expect.

Same goes with one of my pet peeves since the start. The insane randomness of the BoA. I sortied with 2 stacks of 3 subs each fully upgraded. And the have done miserably basically sinking one merchant for each sub step loss. But sometimes 2 stacks of 3 subs can wreck havoc. This very large range of outcomes is annoying and something that should be looked at in WP 2 I think at least show how it is all calculated and what outcomes are possible. Icing on the cake a UK bomber than sank a sub. That is kind of ok because I didnt have to move it within range of landbased air so my mistake I deserve it but I know how rarely they find anything so still annoying .

/MM


The randomness of the BoA doesn't bother me as much now as it used to because at least now I have a pretty good idea of the odds. True in some games the Allies will get very lucky and in other games the Axis will get very lucky. But at least now I know when the results are skewed one way or the other. It is this not knowing that bugs me for some reason. Besides in most (but not all) games I find that the luck will average out over time. I admit it can be very frustrating though.

(in reply to MagicMissile)
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RE: Can we get more information on the odds of naval in... - 8/10/2021 3:47:50 PM   
Nirosi

 

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quote:

I admit it can be very frustrating though.


Just like in the real war probably

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RE: Can we get more information on the odds of naval in... - 8/10/2021 4:05:44 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nirosi

There is a table on page 79-80. Not the easiest one to read but should give a good info close enough to the exact %. The hardest number to know would be your own fleet ID number.

Also, I believe a costal does not automatically improve the chances to intercept. It must be one of your coastal (if enemy come to your coast) if I understand correctly that table. Also, strangely, weather is not included in the chances (maybe it affects the ID number?).

In your first example, just transporting an inf improves two spots on the table (could be from 45% to 70% chances if from spot 5 to 7).




I have looked at pages 79 to 80 and the tables there on, but I just find them very confusing. In particular it is not clear to me what the difference in the odds are between "Searching/Attacking" and "Patrolling/Intercepting". As I understand it "Searching" is trying to find an enemy fleet on your turn by moving adjacent to it and "Attacking" it (or if you have used up all your OPs by trying to engage in "Pursuit Combat"). Intercepting is an action performed when an enemy fleet moves on its turn moves within 5 hexes of one of your fleets that is patrolling (ie that is in Fleet mode). Clearly, the odds of "Intercepting" an enemy fleet on its turn are significantly greater than "Searching" for that fleet on your own turn. I have no problem with this in general as this makes sense. But I do think that the odds of finding an enemy fleet by "Searching" should be increased somewhat.

In my examples above the "Searching" enemy fleets (UK and German) respectively found and attacked my transports (German and UK) in both games even though my transports were in Raider Mode. I understand that transports are easier to locate than other types of ships and this makes sense to me. Indeed I was the one pushing for this in earlier versions of the game when slow moving transports were pretty much immune to being found. But it would be nice to have some idea of what the chances are of this happening. It would help me plan for future games.


It is also annoying that 5 Search attempts by the RN were unable to track down the German Fleet even though it was in Fleet Mode. Again it would be nice to at least have some general idea of what my chances were.

I guess I will just have to make a better effort to try and understand the tables.

(in reply to Nirosi)
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RE: Can we get more information on the odds of naval in... - 8/10/2021 4:22:27 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: AlvaroSousa

The tables give you an idea of what the chances are. Then there are modifiers. Then there is luck.

A raider trying to avoid combat has a base 5% chance of being found.
A transport fleet 16% (-1 raider, +2 transport fleet)

With multiple fleets their ID can increase. I recently increased it from 40% to 75% on a failed search.

Once you hit around a 5 spot number the spotting chances are roughly 50%.

Then there is fleet size and CV air strength modifier.

It's not suppose to give you an exact picture. One of my goals was no min-maxxing in WarPlan. Use some common sense.


I think you are talking above about the odds of "searching" for an enemy fleet on your turn as opposed to "intercepting" an enemy fleet on its turn, is that correct? If so, I agree with you I am not looking for a precise number. But it would be nice to know if my chance of successfully "Searching" for an enemy fleet is somewhere between 10% and 25% or between 25% and 50%. At the moment i really don't know this. Again maybe I will have to study the tables more.



quote:

If you are trying to sneak a German division past 4 UK fleets outside of Narvik there is a high chance that fleet will be killed.


Now you are talking about "Intercepting" rather than "Searching", is that correct? I agree with you that the chances of Intercepting should be higher than "Searching". I will have to read the Manual some more until I figure this out.


quote:

The naval system is constantly being updated. One thing I am considering is increasing spotting when on a coast no matter who owns it.
Multiple fleet modifiers like in the above situation where any fleet without range adds +1% per group.
And auto-retreat for transport fleets that get intercepted.


I agree with all of these.



(in reply to AlvaroSousa)
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RE: Can we get more information on the odds of naval in... - 8/10/2021 5:11:00 PM   
Nirosi

 

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quote:

In particular it is not clear to me what the difference in the odds are between "Searching/Attacking" and "Patrolling/Intercepting".


Hi,

You are right, for the searching action in particular, it is not 100% clear how and if the table still applies...

Maybe if Alvaro could put an example for both actions while referring to the table?

(in reply to Harrybanana)
Post #: 14
RE: Can we get more information on the odds of naval in... - 8/10/2021 9:48:06 PM   
AlvaroSousa


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Intercepting is based on the range of the intercepting fleet. The closer you are at the end to the intercepting fleet the greater chance of getting intercepted. It is 10 - the distance in hexes.

Actively searching is based on the detection level of the hex you are looking in.

_____________________________

Creator Kraken Studios
- WarPlan
- WarPlan Pacific

Designer Strategic Command
- Brute Force (mod) SC2
- Assault on Communism SC2
- Assault on Democracy SC2
- Map Image Importer SC3

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RE: Can we get more information on the odds of naval in... - 8/11/2021 4:16:57 AM   
MagicMissile


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Very sensible answer. I know it generally evens out but I cant remember an outcome like the last 2 turns its been very bad. I have to reach for my inner Zen and move on . But I still believe the random range could be toned down a bit.

/MM

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RE: Can we get more information on the odds of naval in... - 8/11/2021 10:19:12 PM   
AlvaroSousa


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Naval battles were very luck driven. Read some of the battles of guadalcanal

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Creator Kraken Studios
- WarPlan
- WarPlan Pacific

Designer Strategic Command
- Brute Force (mod) SC2
- Assault on Communism SC2
- Assault on Democracy SC2
- Map Image Importer SC3

(in reply to MagicMissile)
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