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Ideas for Instigating Incidents?

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Ideas for Instigating Incidents? - 7/9/2021 9:17:54 PM   


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What are some common examples of instigating incidents for conflicts? I found a RAND paper that talked about conflict escalation management which gave me some ideas, but what are legitimate reasons to wage war or start conflicts?
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RE: Ideas for Instigating Incidents? - 7/10/2021 12:26:53 AM   

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Some ideas...

Dog fight over a critical sector drawing other units in (Golan/Lebanon, Turkey-Syria Border, PRC-Vietnam, Sea of Japan (DPRK/Japan)).

Incursion across a disputed area getting out of hand (Kargil conflict).

Denial of a critical resource such as water (Dam project).

Naval brinksmanship, miscalculation.


"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."

I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!

(in reply to Marthinwurer)
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RE: Ideas for Instigating Incidents? - 7/10/2021 1:54:19 AM   


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To add to the list, some additional examples:

-atrocity that leads to a punitive strike against the perpetrator (ex: 2017 US strikes against Syria or El Dorado Canyon). Series of atrocities or a sufficiently grievous atrocity combined with appropriate political conditions could lead to more sustained conflict (see post-9/11 invasion of Afghanistan, the various interventions in the former Yugoslavia, or the 1999 East Timor crisis)

-political assassination that leads to retaliation against real/perceived perpetrator (ex: US-Iran conflict in January 2020 and arguably WW1*)

-development of WMD programs (see relevant Israeli strikes against Syria and Iraq)

-rebellion, coup or similar political violence that leads to instability and outside intervention (Operation Urgent Fury, 2011 Libyan intervention, Syria)

As for what constitutes "legitimate reasons to wage war or start conflicts," that's a whole other answer entirely. The extremely simplified legal version is probably Chapter VII of the UN Charter (Article 51 especially). For the philosophical answer see Just War Theory. Ultimately it's a subjective question, of course. Although if you're reading RAND reports you probably knew all of that haha.

*that's probably a rather generous characterization of Austria-Hungary's motives, but it works for this answer...

< Message edited by stww2 -- 7/10/2021 2:15:40 AM >

(in reply to BeirutDude)
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