Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Western Front. Axis #1. German Land and O-Chit w/Rundstedt.
(1) Being a friendly game the discussion and analysis among the entire team (including the allied players) was frank and open as to what might be the best course for the German player. We also viewed all this as a teaching opportunity for the less experienced players as well as the experienced ones too.
(2) The German player stated as his objectives for the surprise invasion impulse were the capture of Antwerp, Liege, Maas and Luxemburg. This ensure that no allied units could get into Brussels before the Germans could captured the city next axis impulse. Liege, Mass & Luxemburg were all given. Antwerp; however wasn't, with 9 combat factors defending and with snow's -4 2D10 modifier.
(3) Using my 2D10 CRT Excel based calculator we, I mean I, helped the German player analyze 4 different land combat options for Antwerp. The first two options assumed no O-chit and the last two assumed all attackers doubled using an O-chit played with Rundstedt. By the way, Rundstedt was the only German HQ in the West. von Bock and von Leeb were still in Poland. Also, Germany had 4 planes with TAC factors of 2,2,2,1 in normal range and 1 plane with TAC factor of 3 in extended range of Antwerp. TAC factors in normal range would be halved due to snow and that in extended ranged quartered due to snow & extended range. Since this was the surprise impulse, any factors used in ground support would be doubled and any factors used in a ground strike would get two chances.
(4) The 4 Antwerp land combat options considered were: (I) No O-chit, +2 HQ support (Rundstedt) and 8 factors in ground support (i.e., [2/2 + 2/2 + 2/2 + 3/4] x 2 = 3.75 x 2 = 7.5 rounded off to 8). (II) No O-chit, +2 HQ support and ground strike by 4 planes each with 1 factor x 2 (i.e., 8 ground strikes per unit each with a 10% chance of flipping). (III) O-chit, land factors doubled, and 8 factors in ground support. (IV) O-chit, land factors doubled and 8 ground strikes per defender each with 10% chance of flipping.
(5) Note III & IV, which uses an O-chit, included no HQ support. The through there was that Rundstedt, who would reorg land units at half cost, would be used first to reorg any attackers flipped and then any planes (at double the cost).
(6) If the 4 planes were used for ground support their 8 factors would increase the land combat odds by 8/9 x 2 = +1.778. If used for a ground strike the 4 places would get a total of 8 chances to flip each unit at odds of 10% each chance. This translated to a 18.53% chance of missing both defenders, 49.03% chance of flipping 1 (+2), 32.44% chance of flipping both (+4). Factoring all this in the land combat odds and expected values were calculated for all 4 options, including the subcases for the two ground strike options.
(7) Though we as a team presented the numbers and discussed the pros & cons of the 4 options it was the German player that made the final decision based on his own risk/reward calculus.
(8) The German player went with option III. That is, O-chit and planes used for ground support.