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BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO's answer)

 
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BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO's a... - 6/13/2021 8:37:07 AM   
tiag

 

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That question came many times and no one can really give a final decisive word on it. The problem already starts which aircraft parameters should be compared. The list can get very long from simple performance aspects like max ceiling or thrust, to more convoluted ones like thrust-to-weight ratio, number of long range missiles. A second major problem is that BVR combat depends a lot on tactics and on the weapons being carried. And particular weapons are definitely not the same. So I decided to give a shot to answer that question in Command Modern Operations.

I run a simulation in CMO using LUA to set up the combats automatically, control the results and interate over al possible combinations. The BVR contest ran in three steps. The first one included all acft and its BVR loadouts since 2000 in the DB of CMO. In total there were about 2294 entries (many acft were fighting with different loadouts, including SARH missiles). Each acft fought each other 5 times with a duration of 10 minutes each sortie (game time). The simulation was run at max speed, what in my PC took a few hours. If an aircraft shot down the oponent it got 1 point. If both shot down each other in a exchange missiles, then both got 1 point.
A second run was done with the best 116 under the same rules.

The top aircraft after these two runs, with its best loadout ranking, were then chosen for a final contest. Some acft were represented many times in the top rankings with different loadouts, but only the best ranked loadout of each aircraft was chosen to move to the finals.
These acft are the following (alphabetical order):

F/A-18E Super Hornet
F-15C Eagle
F-15E Strike Eagle
F-15EX Advanced Eagle
F-15I Eagle [Raam]
F-15SA Eagle
F-16CJ Blk 52+ Advanced Falcon [Peace Xenia IV]
F-16CM Blk 52 Falcon
F-16E Blk 60 Desert Falcon
F-16I Falcon [Sufa]
F-22A Raptor
F-35A Lightning II
J-10C Vigorous Dragon
J-11B Flanker B [Su-27SK Copy]
J-11BG
J-15 Flying Shark [Su-33 Copy]
J-16 Flying Shark [Su-30MKK Copy]
J-20 Mighty Dragon
J-31
JAS 39E Gripen NG
JF-17 Thunder Blk 3
MiG-29M2 Fulcrum C
MiG-35D Fulcrum F
Mirage 2000H-5
Rafale C
Su-27SM/SM3 Flanker B
Su-30MKK Flanker G
Su-30SM Flanker G
Su-33 Flanker D
Su-35S Flanker E
T-50 PAK-FA
Typhoon FGR.4

No surprises here, isn´t? All top tiers are represented as expected. These final 31 players were then put back in the BVR arena to fight each other one final time. Same scenario, duration and number of combat. Wins gave 1 point and losses subtracted 1 point (!). So, max points woult be 310 points and min points would be -310 points.
And here are the results:



Some interesting stuff here:
1) What I found very interesting is how close matched is the latest Rafale C, the Typhoon FGR.4 and F-35s are. Out of 310 combats, these guys have similar exchange ratios.
2) Grippen is not bad, but is the cheap cousin of the other europen fighters. But better than all Eagles and Vipers around. This is probably due to the Meteor.
3) F-15s/F-16s are in another category in comparison to the latest Rafale and the latest Typhoon. Even when carrying the long range AIM-120D, they got no chance against the Meteor and the european radar/sensors.

< Message edited by tiag -- 6/14/2021 2:44:11 PM >
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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/13/2021 2:39:26 PM   
KnightHawk75

 

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That is indeed interesting, thanks for sharing that.

(in reply to tiag)
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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/13/2021 4:21:35 PM   
Blast33


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We definitely need a like button

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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/14/2021 3:32:10 AM   
TBLackey

 

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Nice!

Is F/A-18F Super Hornet rolled in with F/A-18E, or did it do worse for some reason?

I'm surprised Mig-31 with R-37 didn't make the top tier, was it a close runner up?

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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/14/2021 9:47:00 AM   
14yellow14

 

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As missiles have a fundamental impact on BVR combat, it would be interesting to test the British F-35B with the Meteor missile too.

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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/14/2021 2:46:08 PM   
tiag

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TBLackey

Nice!

Is F/A-18F Super Hornet rolled in with F/A-18E, or did it do worse for some reason?

I'm surprised Mig-31 with R-37 didn't make the top tier, was it a close runner up?



Yes, I decided to put the F as the E to save "space" for other acft.
I dont know about the MIG-31 by heart right now. If I remember correctly, its agility in CMO is not so good, which makes an easy tgt for missiles.

< Message edited by tiag -- 6/14/2021 2:48:08 PM >

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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/14/2021 2:47:00 PM   
tiag

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: 14yellow14

As missiles have a fundamental impact on BVR combat, it would be interesting to test the British F-35B with the Meteor missile too.



Yes, and I dont know why I did not test it!? Humm Maybe I am missed it. Will take a look on that.

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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/14/2021 6:27:32 PM   
BDukes

 

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None of this accounts for having the worst pilot ever driving them! I bet I can make the J-20 far worse.

Data science people know what I'm talking about.

Mike

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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/14/2021 8:40:17 PM   
BrianinMinnie

 

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Just asking

What metrics are being used for J-31/J-20 & F-22/F-35 BVR combat performances, what is?, what should be? or what could be?

Is it all based on non-classified sources on printed or stated sensor\weapon hardware configurations and capabilities?

Are real world combat uses or occurrences (ie known capabilities) levied against what should\could work on paper or in research journals?


Thanks for your work!

Brian

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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/18/2021 2:44:45 AM   
Boagrius

 

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It would be interesting to revisit this when the IR signatures of the VLO jets get adjusted. At present, the game only models VLO in the RF spectrum, but not IR. Significant when facing IRST systems capable of generating a firing solution. Ditto for including F22/F35's equipped with JATM...

< Message edited by Boagrius -- 6/18/2021 2:49:21 AM >

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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/20/2021 1:16:40 AM   
c3k

 

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Great data set.

Thanks for showing this to us.

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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/22/2021 8:06:18 PM   
maverick3320

 

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I'm not sure if I should be surprised or dismayed at the performance of the higher-end PLAAF aircraft.

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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/22/2021 11:34:45 PM   
Twistedpretzel

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: maverick3320

I'm not sure if I should be surprised or dismayed at the performance of the higher-end PLAAF aircraft.


How little is known about these Chinese aircraft and their capabilities. OSINT tells us that 21 identifiable J-20 have been photographed, and maybe 23 in total have been manufactured. The performance simulated by CMO is largely an educated guess. I've seen requested DB changes shot down entirely that had more data than anyone does in regards to these aircraft.

Or we could be suspicious about why their performance in this simulation is so high. We know CMO is used by government entities. We see how many scenarios are released on the steam workshop in simplified Chinese.

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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/23/2021 12:42:20 AM   
thewood1

 

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"Or we could be suspicious about why their performance in this simulation is so high. We know CMO is used by government entities. We see how many scenarios are released on the steam workshop in simplified Chinese."

Are you saying the Chinese government is influencing CMO databases? Really?

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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/23/2021 12:52:44 AM   
Twistedpretzel

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: thewood1

"Or we could be suspicious about why their performance in this simulation is so high. We know CMO is used by government entities. We see how many scenarios are released on the steam workshop in simplified Chinese."

Are you saying the Chinese government is influencing CMO databases? Really?


Maybe I am implying that it is a maskirovka of sorts, giving attributes and performance that is more favorable than reality. So they are deceiving the Chinese government or users.

Are you implying that the Chinese government doesn't have the ability or ambition to do such things? Can you support the performance stats with any data? Are you implying the attributes given to the J-20 in CMO are beyond reproach and totally accurate? Just saying their performance is a best guess. There isn't any OQE to say the J-20 in CMO is overperforming, underperforming, or accurate. I can think of several reasons why that aircraft would be given the benefit of a doubt in its favor.

< Message edited by Twistedpretzel -- 6/23/2021 12:53:11 AM >

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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/23/2021 1:59:19 AM   
thewood1

 

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I'm not implying anything.

"Or we could be suspicious about why their performance in this simulation is so high. We know CMO is used by government entities. We see how many scenarios are released on the steam workshop in simplified Chinese."

This statement implies that the devs are purposefully altering data to favor Chinese units. Did I read this wrong?

_____________________________

You are like puss filled boil on nice of ass of bikini model. You are nasty to everybody but then try to sweeten things up with a nice post somewhere else. That's nice but you're still a boil on a beautiful thing! - BDukes

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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/23/2021 2:33:55 AM   
Twistedpretzel

 

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You read that correctly. I offered a possibility regarding CMO simulated capability compared to reality, in response to someone being impressed with the supposed capability of the J-20. There isn't enough information to say it is simulated "accurately" or not. I am of the opinion there isn't enough data to say it is overperforming or underperforming. That is part and parcel of CMO, where DB revisions occur as more open source information comes out.

Honestly I believe the performance of the J-20 in this excellent aircraft performance comparison is due to the PL-15. You can see this reflected in the lesser gen aircraft as well.

(in reply to thewood1)
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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/23/2021 1:48:33 PM   
Rory Noonan

 

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This is quite amusing and it would be nice to be so important, but Occam's razor applies here.

It's really hard to find good quality data on Chinese platforms. US in particular and NATO aligned companies in general have a lot of open-source specifications in brochures etc. These are 'sales' values so we take them with a grain of salt.

The PRC and other non-democratic arms-producing nations are much more coy about the specifications of their equipment. If they are out there, they're grossly inflated. They also have state run media as their primary media interface with the rest of the word, anything that comes out goes through that first. Remember the 100mT torpedoes, nuclear powered cruise missiles with unlimited range?

The pros who use Command use their own data through the DB editing capability. That's where the juicy info is, and--quite purposefully--it has nothing to do with the dev team. The DB3K and CWDB are open-source only, otherwise we wouldn't be able to sell them.

That's all

_____________________________


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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/23/2021 3:49:17 PM   
Fritz1776

 

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I'm surprised the F-35 did so poorly relative to the J-31. I suspect this is mostly because of the PL-15's advantage over the AMRAAM, but agility may also be a factor. Looking at the DB that agility difference has me a little confused. Based on all the other statistics I would've figured the F-35 would have the better agility score. Does agility not represent what I think it does?
Edit: I'm also mildly surprised that the meteor seems to be superior to the AMRAAM, if only slightly. The meteor seems to have a lower signature than the P3I.4 (somehow, despite being larger and having those intakes sticking out of it.) but otherwise is identical in performance. Does the turbojet propulsion actually do anything different from rocket, even with both having the same speed and fuel consumption? Because if not it's literally just that lower signature. On the other hand, the DB seems to undersell the meteor, since it's no escape zone is far greater than that of the AMRAAM as I understand it.

< Message edited by Fritz1776 -- 6/23/2021 4:04:23 PM >

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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/23/2021 10:28:22 PM   
BDukes

 

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The J-20 is in the DB3k is purposefully gray. The not-so-subtle hint is US EOTS IRST is used. This is perfectly fine. What you want is an approximation of what is known and suspected with disadvantages and advantages modeled which it does. I don't think it's wise to discourage this unless you don't want them trying to model cool things. My approach to this challenge is to try and win. The gap between US tech and others is closing so might as well learn.

Just to follow up a bit.

Anything with a modern IRST stands a good chance. Check out F-35, 2022 Super Hornet with AN/ASQ-34 or even an F-14D early-mid 2000's when still had Phoenix and nice IR sensor. Everything else substantially harder which feels right in terms of modeling.

Mike



< Message edited by BDukes -- 6/23/2021 10:57:01 PM >

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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/24/2021 3:15:53 AM   
DrRansom

 

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I think that comparison is qualitatively correct - and possibly even quantitatively correct.

Longer range is a big deal and the US military seems to be spooked by the PL-15 capabilities.
USAF and PL-15


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RE: BVR Contest: The best BVR Aircraft nowadays? (a CMO... - 6/24/2021 7:21:20 PM   
KungPao


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Regarding J-31: I guess with long range PL-15 , J-31 has a great advantage against 4th gen fighters. But it doesn’t do well against 5th gen VLO fighters. I did a test of J-31 vs F-35 before. Both sides proficiency set at regular, EMCON 4, head to head , get close at cruise speed. F-35 wins 90% of the engagements.

Most of the time the engagement begin with a F-35’s radar reports a bogey contact at 23nm

quote:

7/20/1990 12:17:06 PM - [SARH 2] New contact! Designated BOGEY #21 - Detected by Serria #1 (F-35B Lightning II) [Sensors: AN/APG-81 AESA] at 109deg - 23.1nm



Then a target classification through IRST

quote:

7/20/1990 12:17:11 PM - [SARH 2] Contact: BOGEY #21 has been classified as: J-31 [Carrier Variant] - Determined as: Hostile (Classification by: Serria #1 (F-35B Lightning II) [Sensor: EOTS [IRST]] at 22.4 nm)


J-31 will only get an enemy contact after the AIM120D left F-35

quote:

7/20/1990 12:17:22 PM - [SARH 1] New contact! Designated MISSILE #21 - Detected by changjian #1 (J-31 [Carrier Variant]) [Sensors: Mk1 Eyeball] at 293deg - 21.4nm - Medium Contrail Detected.

7/20/1990 12:17:26 PM - [SARH 1] New contact! Designated BOGEY #22 - Detected by changjian #1 (J-31 [Carrier Variant]) [Sensors: Mk1 Eyeball] at 293deg - 21nm - Small Contrail Detected.


After OODA cooldown, J-31 release two PL-15s but it is too late. (see the pic below)





Most of the time the first salvo from F-35 destroys J-31, so the two PL-15 will lose their mid-course correction and will not be able to trace evading F-35.

Regarding the missile’s end game calculation , 20nm distance is a “knife fight” to a AIM-120D or PL-15. Neither one suffer PoH reduction due to the distance , so J-31 has a little bit of advantage due to its higher base agility ( 5 vs 4.5) but this advantage is nerf by J-31’s inferior DECM ability.


quote:

7/20/1990 12:17:47 PM - Decoy (Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]; Tech: N/A) from changjian #1 is attempting to seduce sensor: Active Radar Seeker (Tech: Early 2010s)(Guiding weapon: AIM-120D AMRAAM P3I.4 #98). Final probability: 0%. Result: 61 - FAILURE

7/20/1990 12:17:47 PM - Defensive jammer (Generic DECM [Advanced]; Tech: Early 1990s) on changjian #1 is attempting to spoof sensor: Active Radar Seeker (Tech: Early 2010s)(Of: AIM-120D AMRAAM P3I.4 #98). Final probability: 5%. Result: 5 - SUCCESS







Attachment (1)

< Message edited by KungPao -- 6/24/2021 7:23:55 PM >


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