But do you really need to invest with all three countries to get results? Italy, for instance, does not even have the MPPs to produce units and research tech - much less diplomacy!
Let's say, I am aiming for an April 1941 start of Barbarossa. Can I with reasonable assurance get Turkey to join by January of 1941 or so, if I only invest with Germany and Japan?
Good question. You are right, Italy can barely scrape up 50 MPPs for diplomacy nevermind 150.
Without Italy, only 8 chits are available for the Axis to influence Turkey (Germany 5 and Japan 3). With 8 chits the Axis has 40% chance to get a hit each Axis turn and shift Turkey 12-24% (I had it wrong on the last post, according to the manual majors move 4-8%, minors 12-24%. However, I don't think the manual is correct.). Yeah, hits only occurs on the Axis turn when the Axis has the most chits invested.
Just using averages, at 40%, I should get two diplomacy hits every five Axis turns. So, on average, every five Axis turns I should be able to shift Turkey 36% (18% x 2).
In my last game France fell July 40. At the time Turkey was at 14%. In order to get Turkey to join the Axis I have to get Turkey to 90. After 90 I'm golden because Turkey will automatically declare war in one or two turns. Okay, in order to move Turkey into the Axis I needed to shift them 76% (14% to 90%).
Using the above figures, you will find that on average, it should take about 11 Axis turns to bring Turkey to 90%. That's about a year and that's if the Allies do nothing.
Throw Italy's chits into the ring and the chance for a hit rises to 55%. At 55% it should take about 8 Axis turns to bring Turkey to 90%. Again, that's assuming the Allies do nothing.
In my current MP game it's 1943 and the Allies invested chits into influencing Sweden. Normally I don't challenge the USA in diplomacy because their chits are worth 7%. However, I figured all Allied chits are tied up in Sweden. I immediately invested 10 chits into Turkey. Last turn I got a hit and moved Turkey 6%. Yeah, not the 12-24% that the manual states. So, it appears that the manual is wrong and diplomacy is even worse than I thought.
< Message edited by LoneRunner -- 5/17/2021 4:50:49 AM >