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RE: Axis Struggles - 4/16/2021 4:37:07 PM   
Speedysteve

 

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Also to add my 2p. From the times I’ve been involved in testing games before there’d be so many things to test - accuracy, data, glitches, bugs, trying to stress test added to the fact or frequent updates (I know Loki alludes to this above) that to have the time to plot every single realistic move week by week would, frankly, be impossible to achieve. The amount of time it would take would be inordinate and not possible bearing in mind the testing factors I mentioned.

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RE: Axis Struggles - 4/16/2021 4:55:15 PM   
Zemke


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quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zemke

Well, it cannot be a real historical game if it cannot match what happened in history. I am not talking about what real players will or will not do. I am asking IF the game has been tested this way, and do advance rates match as well as the other factors like casualties.


for the metrics we used - yes its a good match, above I told you the ones we mostly relied on.

Has anyone sat with a divisional history and modelled every move exactly as it happened - not as far as I am aware.

But I don't think that is a valid criticism of the game?


I am not interested in what two different players could or could not do against each other. To me, that really does not test anything unless the baseline test of a historical cross-reference of historical advance rates combined with casualties and prisoners taken. In other words, you have designed a program to do what? Is it a historically accurate simulation or an approximate facsimile of history? The answer is the latter, as the game has not been tested using a historical baseline as the measure. Which hey I get, if there was not the time to do the research, I do understand, that is a lot of historical research, which is why I suggested it should be done on a small area to even see how close the game is. As I stated previously, I have NOT been able to replicate the shifting of 3rd Pz Grp after taking Smolensk, mostly due to the time it takes to gain back enough CCP for those units to be effective in that terrain.

Also, I am saying this DOES NOT need to be done for every single unit or division, only a small area to see how the game stacks up. I think this could be done in a reasonable time frame.


< Message edited by Zemke -- 4/16/2021 4:59:43 PM >


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RE: Axis Struggles - 4/16/2021 5:01:11 PM   
MechFO

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zemke

Well, it cannot be a real historical game if it cannot match what happened in history. I am not talking about what real players will or will not do. I am asking IF the game has been tested this way, and do advance rates match as well as the other factors like casualties.


That's a very deterministic view of warfare. Given repeated runs of even a division scale fight, so much depends on the outcome of the aggregation of individual decisions and circumstances that's anything past the broadstrokes are impossible to predict weeks and months out and pointless to try and replicate. Friction will mess things up in different ways each time.

Have some fights take a bit longer, some events happen slightly differently, and the "time plan" is obsolete.

< Message edited by MechFO -- 4/16/2021 5:25:03 PM >

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RE: Axis Struggles - 4/16/2021 5:02:44 PM   
carlkay58

 

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Zemke - the problems you are encountering in your attempt to duplicate the historical shifts of the Panzer Corps are to be expected. Why? Because I have yet to see any human play the Soviets and do out right attacks starting on turn 1 and continuing to attack with just about every unit within a few hexes of the front. Even the AI is too smart to do that. When the Battle of Smolensk started around July 10, the Soviets had five armies that stretched from Polotsk to Mogilev with no troops from Polostk to Idrista or Mogilev to Gomel (as per Glantz in his Battle for Smolensk). What Soviet player would do that AND attack with every unit possible? The Soviets lost 6M men from June 22 to December 31, 1941. This is according to three different experts (Glantz, Sharp, and Nasfinzer something that I can't remember off the top of my head). If the Soviets lose 6M men in this game, the Soviets will have roughly 1.8M men at December 31. This is quite possible as all three experts agree that the Soviets lost over 1M men just in December while attacking.

What you are asking is just too hard to test. What was extensively tested was the strategies and the outcomes. They came out pretty close to historical in territory and numbers.

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RE: Axis Struggles - 4/16/2021 5:04:51 PM   
Joel Billings


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You could try playing Road to Leningrad in a historical way. However, even there the exact reinforcements for both sides are just the scenario designers best guess as to what was available. We can get unit names, but once you drill down to exactly when each man and gun showed up on the front, you're just approximating what actually happened. We do our best to get it as correct as reasonably possible.

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RE: Axis Struggles - 4/16/2021 5:29:50 PM   
Bamilus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: carlkay58

Zemke - the problems you are encountering in your attempt to duplicate the historical shifts of the Panzer Corps are to be expected. Why? Because I have yet to see any human play the Soviets and do out right attacks starting on turn 1 and continuing to attack with just about every unit within a few hexes of the front. Even the AI is too smart to do that. When the Battle of Smolensk started around July 10, the Soviets had five armies that stretched from Polotsk to Mogilev with no troops from Polostk to Idrista or Mogilev to Gomel (as per Glantz in his Battle for Smolensk). What Soviet player would do that AND attack with every unit possible? The Soviets lost 6M men from June 22 to December 31, 1941. This is according to three different experts (Glantz, Sharp, and Nasfinzer something that I can't remember off the top of my head). If the Soviets lose 6M men in this game, the Soviets will have roughly 1.8M men at December 31. This is quite possible as all three experts agree that the Soviets lost over 1M men just in December while attacking.

What you are asking is just too hard to test. What was extensively tested was the strategies and the outcomes. They came out pretty close to historical in territory and numbers.


To be fair I'd probably be dumb enough to do that in my first game as Soviets (which I haven't tried yet)

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RE: Axis Struggles - 4/16/2021 5:33:34 PM   
Zemke


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This idea of testing could even be done on a smaller scale, of a few divisions, and do several runs to see what the average results are, and answer some basic questions. Do the combat results match, can units match the historical advance rate, and so on. I think the computer program can handle several runs to get an average and let's see what that average is, not impossible at all.

I would be interested to know if anyone has been able to shift 3rd Pz Group to the North and match the historical attacks.

Anyway, I can see I am swimming upstream on this one.

< Message edited by Zemke -- 4/16/2021 5:40:45 PM >


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RE: Axis Struggles - 4/16/2021 5:35:13 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: carlkay58
...
Why? Because I have yet to see any human play the Soviets and do out right attacks starting on turn 1 and continuing to attack with just about every unit within a few hexes of the front. Even the AI is too smart to do that.
...



The "spoiling attacks", potential defender's loss of MP and CPP, would seem to make this a rewarding strategy. I play as Germans so I have not done this.

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RE: Axis Struggles - 4/16/2021 5:44:33 PM   
Zemke


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How about we contact David Glantz (COL) retired and ask him to test this for a small fee...lol.

< Message edited by Zemke -- 4/16/2021 5:46:07 PM >


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RE: Axis Struggles - 4/16/2021 5:45:59 PM   
Speedysteve

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zemke

This idea of testing could even be done on a smaller scale, of a few divisions, and do several runs to see what the average results are, and answer some basic questions. Do the combat results match, can units match the historical advance rate, and so on. I think the computer program can handle several runs to get an average and let's see what that average is, not impossible at all.

I would be interested to know if anyone has been able to shift 3rd Pz Group to the North and match the historical attacks.

Anyway, I can see I am swimming upstream on this one.


I do understand what you mean but how can we possibly guarantee what specific experience or morale level would be for each unit? What about the replacements and supply provided that is done via the AI. We can't know that level of detail for most units in RL so how to model etc. I know it's details but those things also add into the combat results and also the RL advance.

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RE: Axis Struggles - 4/16/2021 5:59:27 PM   
Zemke


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Speedysteve


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zemke

This idea of testing could even be done on a smaller scale, of a few divisions, and do several runs to see what the average results are, and answer some basic questions. Do the combat results match, can units match the historical advance rate, and so on. I think the computer program can handle several runs to get an average and let's see what that average is, not impossible at all.

I would be interested to know if anyone has been able to shift 3rd Pz Group to the North and match the historical attacks.

Anyway, I can see I am swimming upstream on this one.


I do understand what you mean but how can we possibly guarantee what specific experience or morale level would be for each unit? What about the replacements and supply provided that is done via the AI. We can't know that level of detail for most units in RL so how to model etc. I know it's details but those things also add into the combat results and also the RL advance.


That's just it, the test would confirm if current experience and moral settings are close, based on results, (and several runs, not just one), along with the other measures that quantifiable, like casualties and advance rates. If the current logistics model is close, then there are not issues. IF not then adjustments could be made to exp or moral settings or the logistics model. Anyway, I was just asking if these tests had been done, which they have not. And doing them will require a research effort that is more than likely beyond the desire of 99% of us.

I would assume that some of the scenario designers would be much more qualified to test this, or already have.

(I think asked this same question for the first WitE.) I know it looks like I am saying the "baby" is ugly here, which I am not. I love the game, it is the best we have. I was just asking how deep was the testing, and I know now.



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RE: Axis Struggles - 4/16/2021 6:08:09 PM   
Zemke


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Once in my past in the Infantry, "everyone needs to take knee and drink some water". The game is good.

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Post #: 42
RE: Axis Struggles - 4/16/2021 7:19:30 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zemke
I find it very difficult (impossible) to execute a historical maneuver, and I will use the following example. The 3rd Panzer Group was sent north to aid Army Group North in surrounding Leningrad, after Smolensk falls on 17 July 41. To get the 39th Pz Corps in position to attack and take Novogorod by 25 August 41 rested and with some CCP is well difficult while at the same time maintaining the gains made around Smolensk. The same would apply to the 57 Pz Corps attacking towards Demyansk, which fell on 8 Sept 41. The combination of moving, resting, CCP accumulation, and last the terrible terrain in both axis of advance all combine in this game to make this (for me) an impossible move to replicate. This is why I ask the above question, has the game been tested in this way to see if the programming matches the historical results?


It would be interesting to see an experienced player give this a try. I expect it could be done to a reasonable degree. I'm not sure outside of experimenting with it that you'd ever really want to though. With that said, there are many, many variables that make it hard to get a truly controlled experiment hence the focus tends to be on broader strokes.

Regards,

- Erik

< Message edited by Erik Rutins -- 4/16/2021 7:20:12 PM >


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RE: Axis Struggles - 4/17/2021 2:59:53 AM   
HardLuckYetAgain


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zemke
I find it very difficult (impossible) to execute a historical maneuver, and I will use the following example. The 3rd Panzer Group was sent north to aid Army Group North in surrounding Leningrad, after Smolensk falls on 17 July 41. To get the 39th Pz Corps in position to attack and take Novogorod by 25 August 41 rested and with some CCP is well difficult while at the same time maintaining the gains made around Smolensk. The same would apply to the 57 Pz Corps attacking towards Demyansk, which fell on 8 Sept 41. The combination of moving, resting, CCP accumulation, and last the terrible terrain in both axis of advance all combine in this game to make this (for me) an impossible move to replicate. This is why I ask the above question, has the game been tested in this way to see if the programming matches the historical results?


It would be interesting to see an experienced player give this a try. I expect it could be done to a reasonable degree. I'm not sure outside of experimenting with it that you'd ever really want to though. With that said, there are many, many variables that make it hard to get a truly controlled experiment hence the focus tends to be on broader strokes.

Regards,

- Erik


If you have someone that is very well versed and willing to have this set up in "all" the "historical" data for all counters, railroad track conversions, friendly & enemy placement(at appropriate ToE's), air transport, appropriate starting CCP, etc, etc, etc, and I can more than likely make it happen. I play the simulation but I will gladly test historical for you if you consider me experienced enough that is ;-P

Heck you could even make it a contest for everyone to try in my opinion. The best submissions gets something. Sounds like a pretty nice challenge in my opinion.

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Post #: 44
RE: Axis Struggles - 4/17/2021 8:42:07 AM   
malyhin1517


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zemke


quote:

ORIGINAL: Speedysteve


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zemke

This idea of testing could even be done on a smaller scale, of a few divisions, and do several runs to see what the average results are, and answer some basic questions. Do the combat results match, can units match the historical advance rate, and so on. I think the computer program can handle several runs to get an average and let's see what that average is, not impossible at all.

I would be interested to know if anyone has been able to shift 3rd Pz Group to the North and match the historical attacks.

Anyway, I can see I am swimming upstream on this one.


I do understand what you mean but how can we possibly guarantee what specific experience or morale level would be for each unit? What about the replacements and supply provided that is done via the AI. We can't know that level of detail for most units in RL so how to model etc. I know it's details but those things also add into the combat results and also the RL advance.


That's just it, the test would confirm if current experience and moral settings are close, based on results, (and several runs, not just one), along with the other measures that quantifiable, like casualties and advance rates. If the current logistics model is close, then there are not issues. IF not then adjustments could be made to exp or moral settings or the logistics model. Anyway, I was just asking if these tests had been done, which they have not. And doing them will require a research effort that is more than likely beyond the desire of 99% of us.

I would assume that some of the scenario designers would be much more qualified to test this, or already have.

(I think asked this same question for the first WitE.) I know it looks like I am saying the "baby" is ugly here, which I am not. I love the game, it is the best we have. I was just asking how deep was the testing, and I know now.



For such enthusiasts, there is an editor in the game! You can adjust the data itself until you get the desired result! :)

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