From: Jacksonville, FL, USA
My PERSONAL estimation of the situation is...
1. NATO (or the EU) WILL NOT openly support the Ukraine militarily. Sorry open warfare with Russia, even if Russia doesn't go nuclear will result in the overrunning of the Baltics, and (at least) eastern Poland. NATO would be faced with the decision to use nukes in the Suwalki Gap and they won't risk that for The Ukraine.
2. The U.S. and (maybe) U.K. & France may support the Ukraine with limited resupply (ATGMs, MPSAMs, etc.) in the long run but not major equipment and nothing that will seriously strain relations with Russia. IMHO (and it is my opinion) the numbers of Neo-Nazis in the Donbass Militia Battalions (Azov Battalion) is a major public relations issue for Ukraine which just doesn't allow the West to do more. Russia is gaining a lot of traction in the propaganda battles and you can't deny they are there. Trying to not make this a political discussion but it is a major problem for the West supporting the Ukraine. The scenario assumes this.
What the scenario is predicated on is the Ukraine on it's own and Russia is taking the first two days to dismantle the Ukrainian Navy, Air Force and (most formable) the IADS before a ground offensive to the Dnieper (like Desert Storm).
Sorry but that is how I see it. You can say it is 1938/39 all over again, but it is 1938/39 with nukes, and that can never be forgotten.
< Message edited by BeirutDude -- 5/9/2021 1:49:43 PM >
"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985
I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!