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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up????

 
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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/15/2021 10:03:50 PM   
kevinkins


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Forget the headlines, without the Kerch Strait, Ukraine is pretty much landlocked. And US destroyers would never operate in the Sea of Azov anyway. That is not the point. But they do passage the Black Sea several times a year. The most significant thing is that the USN is not going to send destroyers into the Black Sea as planned. Probably a concession to get recently discussed US - Russian "summit" in a few months.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/15/us-navy-ukraine-russia-tensions-481897

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/15/2021 10:21:51 PM   
Scorpion86

 

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I guess it's to be expected: both "newspapers" have been doing clickbait headlines for decades before the internet even existed...

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/15/2021 10:26:49 PM   
Scorpion86

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: kevinkins
Forget the headlines, without the Kerch Strait, Ukraine is pretty much landlocked.


That simply isn't true. Yes, about half of Ukraine's coastline is effectively blocked, but that still leaves all the coastline west of the occupied Crimea. It is hardly landlocked...

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/16/2021 12:02:53 AM   
BeirutDude


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I have seen reports that amphibious vessels are headed south from the Northern Fleet and other smaller vessels have been transferred from the Caspian Sea. If true that may indicate some type of amphibious operation is contemplated.

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/16/2021 12:16:47 AM   
Gunner98

 

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quote:

Ukraine is pretty much landlocked.


Odessa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Belgorod and several other pretty big ports.

https://www.sifservice.com/index.php/en/directory/ports-ukraine/sea-ports

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/16/2021 9:41:06 AM   
Sardaukar


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Actually Ukraine's biggest ports are all west of Crimea, as said above. Ones on Sea of Azov are minor ones.

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/16/2021 10:10:20 AM   
BeirutDude


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For what it’s worth, Twitter report, 2 Northern Fleet Project 775 Ropucha’s are reported to have reprovisioned in Tartus NF, Syria and are now underway escorted by two Baltic Fleet frigates.

< Message edited by BeirutDude -- 4/16/2021 10:44:02 AM >


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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/16/2021 11:04:01 AM   
kevinkins


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I see what you mean about those ports, but wouldn't they be easily blockaged? Kind of a one way in and one way out situation give the shape of the coast line.

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/16/2021 12:49:05 PM   
Gunner98

 

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Yes. Absolutely. The A2AD system in place on the Crimea could shut down shipping in an instant, but that has been the case since 2014/15 and is not related to closing the Kerch. In a crisis, Mariupol or Genichesk would not be viable alternatives. Closing access to Odessa, however would be a much more important escalation.

A similar situation exists in the Baltic where the A2AD system in Kaliningrad could easily shut access to the northern Baltic. I am sure this causes Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland, some concern, Sweden as well as access to Stockholm would be impacted. We have a flurry of headlines every couple years over this and then it fades away.

Far easier and more secure, to rail into Poland and either drive or change rail bogies into Ukraine. Or on river transport. I'm sure Russia is not happy with Kiev's plans to build a European gauge railway.

Russia closes the Kerch once or twice a year for exercises, the difference this time is the length of the closure. But in reality I don't think it has any meaningful impact except another step in the escalation ladder.

I'm not saying that this isn't a disturbing development, but I think it means that US sanctions are causing a reaction. If they have hurt Russia economically or simply damaged their pride is something that time will tell.



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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/16/2021 2:38:09 PM   
BeirutDude


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Have the Russian major A2/AD Sites defined and Iskandar Missiles. Struggling with Russian Navy and Bastion missiles. I had hoped to keep this to air forces only, but it looks like the 1,500 km Kalibr's and Russian blockade/amphibious operations will be huge.

Thinking of limiting this scenario to 24-36 hours with mainly air and missile assets but not fully there yet.

I did move some interior S-300V and S-400 brigades to the Ukraine theater. BTW if your favorite unit isn't in here yet remember the Ukraine and Russia aren't sharing their OOBs with me!!!!!! Doing he best I can from Open Sources and I might not have YOUR favorite open source site in my bookmarks!!!!!!




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by BeirutDude -- 4/16/2021 2:40:04 PM >


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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/16/2021 3:07:15 PM   
Gunner98

 

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quote:

remember the Ukraine and Russia aren't sharing their OOBs with me!!!!!!


Yeah, bloody inconsiderate of them

The data at this site is 25 years old but gives some basic structures that might still exist today.

The Black Sea Fleet used to have two Coastal Missile regiments. These were fixed sites for SSC-1 and I think we can assume that they are all gone.

However, it seems that at least one of these Regiments was combined into the 521st Independent Coastal Missile and Artillery Brigade and taken over by the Ukraine in 95. Except for a Missile Bn which was obviously mobile as it moved.

So the Ukraine may have a missile Bde but if the positions were fixed than they would have been taken over by the Russians again. Probably obsolite.

The mobile Battalion however (1267th) was probably upgraded to SSC-5 and they're pretty mobile

As far as Iskander, with 12 Brigades in the inventory it would be reasonable to thing that some were deployed. I'm fairly sure one unit is in the Crimea and probably a couple in western Russia. 49th Army in Southern Mil District has a Bde (7th Bde?) and several old maps from 2014 show them in Crimea.

Not much help, sorry.

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/16/2021 3:46:00 PM   
BeirutDude


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Thanks Gunner,

I'm using this as my primary source for the Russians and then trying to verify by secondary sources and Google Maps/Earth imagery. Sometimes the units pop out and they are easy to find and sometimes it's a lot of hunting.

https://www.gfsis.org/maps/russian-military-forces

So know it isn't 100% accurate but it is a good start. I did verify the Iskandars via a Russian site and the 119Th Missile brigade being moved up via Janes.

I just love it when you get hit with, 'How did you miss the 125th 1/2 Royal Purple Queen's Guard Moldavian Fusiliers! It's in the OOB on the Prussian OOB page! You fool!!!!!!"

Joking aside, help is great and I did add an S-300 Regt near Kharkov, based on the comments above.

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/16/2021 3:48:08 PM   
BeirutDude


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Oh BTW, one of the few I've designed with NUKES! Yes NUKES!



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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/16/2021 4:53:28 PM   
Gunner98

 

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That is a good map. I'll keep that one bookmarked.

Generally speaking wherever you have an Army level you should have an Iskander Bde. Each Iskander Bdes has 3x Bn with 4 TELs each I believe.

this will take some looking at.

Tx

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/16/2021 5:08:29 PM   
AKar

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

Yes. Absolutely. The A2AD system in place on the Crimea could shut down shipping in an instant, [...]

A similar situation exists in the Baltic where the A2AD system in Kaliningrad could easily shut access to the northern Baltic. I am sure this causes Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland, some concern, Sweden as well as access to Stockholm would be impacted. We have a flurry of headlines every couple years over this and then it fades away.

[...]



This indeed is an interesting modern scenario. Realistically, there are two major points I'd consider.

First, the way out of Saint Petersburg through the Baltic Sea is a major shipping route and an area of economic interest for Russia as well. Access/area denial would almost certainly result in an immediate counter-blockage as far as on the Danish Straits, which would be rather bad for St. Petersburg area economically, and would certainly affect the Moscow as well. It would likely be done in a hard sense by Russia only in prelude to a real shooting war, or to an imminent danger thereof, due to economic impact to themselves. Also;

Second, in case of no wide-spread shooting war was there, the Kaliningrad is logistically a very difficult place for Russia. It is effectively dependent on the very same sea route, and perhaps even more importantly, on the air bridge through the tight international airspace over the Gulf of Finland. Should a serious build-up of area denial forces in the Kaliningrad be considered, their supply routes would likely be counter-targeted. This would, in turn, leave the isolated force very vulnerable to any major losses to a counter-strike, should they choose to shoot first.

I would guess a scenario not too unlike of this one is among the reasons why Finnish Air Force has acquired some very high-end point strike ordnance for such a small, defensive air force...

< Message edited by AKar -- 4/16/2021 5:12:51 PM >

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/16/2021 5:48:53 PM   
Gunner98

 

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Those are very good points AKar.

I would say that the main difference is that area denial against Russia would take the active agreement of several national governments and complicit agreement from several more - so is less likely or at least more likely to take time and be quite apparent.

As a reaction though, I agree completely. If Russia were to deny the northern Baltic to NATO (and Finland/Sweden), the opposite denial of Russia using the western Baltic would be swift. The short term effects of that would be hard, possibly crippling on many parts of the Russian economy, but they have enough alternates that it could be mitigated over time.

An interesting study which I hope is not tested.

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/16/2021 6:14:54 PM   
DESRON420

 

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I've worked quite a bit on Baltic scenarios and they're just tough. Modern Europe can feel like everything is in range of everything and every force is relevant particularly as things like precision guided artillery and loitering drones enter modern warfare. No scenario can be considered small because theater level missile and air assets are immediately relevant, and the AAW battle determines so much of the ASW and ASuW battle. St. Petersburg will act to defend Kaliningrad, Murmansk will follow thereafter, and now you have Backfires and Iskanders and B-1s and everything in the air, and all you really wanted to think about was a few submarines.

I've tried to think of less interconnected situations and one workable approach might revolve around the severe decay of Russian ASW in the Baltic. If NATO submarine forces collaborated and made good use of mines they could probably shut St. Petersburg down completely.

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/16/2021 6:37:03 PM   
T Rav

 

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Sadly, I've forsaken almost every other wargame and focused on CMO.

Part of the reason why is because of scenario builders like BD, KevinK, Gunner, et al... The work you folks put into this is awesome. They're topical and always plausible.

I'm also glad to have the moderators squash the "my side/your side" political opinions. No place for that here.

Now I'm back to finishing up Broken Shield before I start on Kashmir or this one. Which ever comes first!

Thanks,
T Rav

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/17/2021 9:06:58 AM   
AKar

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

I would say that the main difference is that area denial against Russia would take the active agreement of several national governments and complicit agreement from several more - so is less likely or at least more likely to take time and be quite apparent.



I think the wild card here is Estonia. With NATO backing, they have increasingly distanced themselves from the Russia, reducing their dependence on them (as an example, they are working on de-syncing their electric grid from the Russian, syncing to the Western European grid instead). Should tensions rise in Kaliningrad area, I'd believe they would be very much 'go' for a countering NATO move, affecting the supply routes to and from Kaliningrad, if a move going as far as cutting off Saint Petersburg would be deemed too extreme. This would put Finland in an awkward position, as they would almost certainly be affected by the Russian counter-counter move, and Finnish policy has been that of being "de-escalating" towards Russia in international relations.


quote:

ORIGINAL: DESRON420

I've worked quite a bit on Baltic scenarios and they're just tough. Modern Europe can feel like everything is in range of everything and every force is relevant particularly as things like precision guided artillery and loitering drones enter modern warfare. No scenario can be considered small because theater level missile and air assets are immediately relevant, and the AAW battle determines so much of the ASW and ASuW battle. St. Petersburg will act to defend Kaliningrad, Murmansk will follow thereafter, and now you have Backfires and Iskanders and B-1s and everything in the air, and all you really wanted to think about was a few submarines.

I've tried to think of less interconnected situations and one workable approach might revolve around the severe decay of Russian ASW in the Baltic. If NATO submarine forces collaborated and made good use of mines they could probably shut St. Petersburg down completely.



Indeed the geographic and geopolitical complexity of the area is, in my thinking, a major reason why an all-out shooting war is unlikely in the area as of today. I think all the sides would be very reluctant to escalate the situation further instead of backing off should first shots be fired. Area denial weapon systems in Kaliningrad would be rather isolated. Further, denying the Baltic shipping lines from commerce, Russia would effectively isolate itself first (it is not the only transit route to the Russia, obviously, but it is a major one). Also, it would be rather extreme move to shoot at a commercial vessel transiting the area. However, as things get dicey, accidents can happen.

What I can see happening is an increase in harassing operations: violations of airspace, aggressive maneuvering by military vessels, increased submarine activity, and perhaps even some special operations, and some targeting of individual vessels for various "reasons". Indeed, when I find some time, I am interested to experiment with a few scenarios in the area.


My apologies, getting quite far from Donbass!

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/19/2021 5:02:43 AM   
MausMan2


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Yes, the US is flipping - going in - not going in. Meanwhile the UK is not hesitating sending assets into the Black... Its almost as if they got some inspiration and a reminder from the funeral on Saturday.

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/19/2021 3:00:01 PM   
DESRON420

 

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Donald Cook and Roosevelt have entered the northern Aegean so the policy appears to be a more finely graded escalation that sends UK destroyers directly into the Black Sea with US destroyers on standby. I believe the movement is coordinated with the movement of CSG21 through the Med. Presumably the Type 45 will be either Daring or Defender and the Type 23 will be either Kent or Richmond. Note that no relevant British ships have yet passed north through the Bosporus so it remains to be seen how the actual plan will crystallize. USS The Sullivans will be part of CSG21 so obviously this is all getting coordinated between the UK and US.

< Message edited by DESRON420 -- 4/19/2021 3:13:34 PM >

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/19/2021 3:22:05 PM   
Gunner98

 

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2x DDG-51s in the Northern Aegean are a significant capability. The Type 45 can handle itself quite well air defence wise on its own but the TLAM punch from the 2 Burkes should add pause.

Mind you they could be in the Red Sea or over by Corsica and get the same effect but not the press coverage...

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/19/2021 3:40:17 PM   
DESRON420

 

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The DDG-51s are also totally surrounded by NATO airspace in the Aegean such that if they fire TLAMs the Russians can't really do anything but be mad about it. If they fire from the Black Sea the Russians could actually fire back at them over water. Not even Latakia can get an angle on them from the north Aegean.

< Message edited by DESRON420 -- 4/19/2021 3:47:38 PM >

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/19/2021 3:58:16 PM   
AKar

 

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I must say, though, that it would seriously rise my eyebrows should they actually launch TLAMs through the airspaces in question, not to say over Istanbul. :)

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/19/2021 4:09:52 PM   
Gunner98

 

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I don't think it will happen but I'm sure they would be routed to stay well clear of built up areas and congested airspace.

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/19/2021 7:15:18 PM   
Blast33


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BeirutDude

quote:

ORIGINAL: edsw

In Kharkov, the Air Defense Academy, in which there is an S-300, plus because Kharkov is the second largest city in Ukraine, so it is covered by the 208th anti-aircraft missile brigade with the S-300 battalion (from 6 to 12 launchers, I don't know for sure) ...
uptdate. I beg your pardon, I confused it with Kherson, in Kharkov only the training unit with the S-300PS


TY! My info has that brigade elsewhere but think you would know better! That said, I have found the Army's 1039th Anti-aircraft Missile Artillery Regiment is to the SW of Kharkov and I haven't modeled them (the on I left out) so will just number an S300PS unit as the 1039th near there.

This is what I had for the 208, you too?





Attachment (1)

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/19/2021 11:50:45 PM   
BeirutDude


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Making slow progress but I have the Russian Crimean bases finished. At this rate the war will be over before I get there!

As to the Baltic I worked weeks on Kaliningrad and have it finished. I just lost it with all of the permutations possible in the Baltic. Anybody want to us it for a scenario PM me and I'll zip it up for you. I was going to expand "Putin's War" to the Baltic but I lost it!!!!!

Attachment (1)

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/19/2021 11:53:38 PM   
BeirutDude


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Blast33


quote:

ORIGINAL: BeirutDude

quote:

ORIGINAL: edsw

In Kharkov, the Air Defense Academy, in which there is an S-300, plus because Kharkov is the second largest city in Ukraine, so it is covered by the 208th anti-aircraft missile brigade with the S-300 battalion (from 6 to 12 launchers, I don't know for sure) ...
uptdate. I beg your pardon, I confused it with Kherson, in Kharkov only the training unit with the S-300PS


TY! My info has that brigade elsewhere but think you would know better! That said, I have found the Army's 1039th Anti-aircraft Missile Artillery Regiment is to the SW of Kharkov and I haven't modeled them (the on I left out) so will just number an S300PS unit as the 1039th near there.

This is what I had for the 208, you too?






I had it just north of the Crimea. Which site are you using?

< Message edited by BeirutDude -- 4/19/2021 11:54:43 PM >


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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/20/2021 12:00:32 PM   
kevinkins


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https://defence-blog.com/news/army/belarus-increases-military-activity-across-the-country.html

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/20/2021 2:10:33 PM   
maverick3320

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: T Rav

Sadly, I've forsaken almost every other wargame and focused on CMO.

Part of the reason why is because of scenario builders like BD, KevinK, Gunner, et al... The work you folks put into this is awesome. They're topical and always plausible.

I'm also glad to have the moderators squash the "my side/your side" political opinions. No place for that here.

Now I'm back to finishing up Broken Shield before I start on Kashmir or this one. Which ever comes first!

Thanks,
T Rav


I can't agree more with the above (even though apparently I'm one of the "political" posters above). This game is fantastic and has basically shut down every other wargame for me...well, other than Steel Division 2, which simply scratches a different itch. I think I've literally put over 20 hours now just into one scenario - Gunner98's Mediterranean Fury 1 - and I'm literally in awe of some of the user-designed scenarios for this game. For me, 75% of the fun is also before the clock starts: checking OOBs, creating my own internal OPORD, reading the scenario background, setting loadouts and missions...just a great game in every sense of the word.

The sad part is that I've had this game on my Steam wish list for several years and I held off purchasing it because I knew it would take 10 hours just to learn the basics (well, that and having an 11 month old). I'm kicking myself for not buying earlier.

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