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DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/9/2021 10:50:25 PM   
DWReese

 

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Here is a story about China test firing some DF-21 missiles in the SCS late last year.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-admiral-says-china-fired-192604895.html

Sounds like the ABM issues are going to actually come into play much sooner than we expected.

Doug
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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/11/2021 4:37:42 AM   
AndrewNguyen1984

 

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In the words of Battlestar Galactica: Oh frak me.

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/18/2021 1:54:33 AM   
Boagrius

 

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Thank frak for SM-6 I guess!

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/18/2021 3:46:10 AM   
DWReese

 

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Using our game, the SM-6 isn't very good at all at destroying these things. It takes a lot of luck to kill it. Usually, if the SM-6 hits the incoming missile, it manages to just barely knocks it off course.

If the Pentagon is using our game to play out any war games, then they better start building better real life missiles, because if they don't, then the US carriers are toast.

Doug

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/18/2021 6:57:01 AM   
Boagrius

 

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Really? I haven't had too many issues with SM6 Blk 1B. Looking back at tests done to date it looks like earlier SM6 variants only cover up to MRBM class weapons. Perhaps the forthcoming 1B will change this...

At any rate I suspect the most protective measure might be to deny the ASBMs the targeting data they need to hit a ship, since the challenge associated with cueing them seems considerable.

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/18/2021 10:17:57 AM   
DWReese

 

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Have you actually fired the SM-3 at the DF-21 and DF-26 in the game? If so, then you will see that, more often than not, they don't kill the incoming missile. Instead, you get a message that that the DF-21 (or DF-26) is knocked off course, and then (I assume) that it performs an extra computation and advises you of the results, i.e. it is 'slightly off course, or 'majorly' off course, etc. I have rarely seen that the incoming missiles are destroyed completely. When the DF-21 (or DF-26) missiles hit, despite the number of off-course hits that they have suffered, they always seem to hit their targets.

Try it out, if you haven't already done so.

Doug

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/18/2021 11:18:49 AM   
thewood1

 

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My experience is the SM-6 is about 50% effective. I think thats pretty good.

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/19/2021 3:32:35 AM   
AndrewNguyen1984

 

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Which scenarios did you try this in. I'd like to take a shot (although I probably won't like the results).

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/19/2021 3:33:17 AM   
AndrewNguyen1984

 

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In this case 50% is not good enough for either those damned missiles or the hypersonic ones.

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/19/2021 10:36:46 AM   
thewood1

 

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It is if you fire enough. What else should use? Again, as I harp on, its about VLS loadouts and loading out for the right mission and threat. Its why the SM-6 is so important. It is a multiuse missile. But its expensive. So for the near future, there will be mixed load outs.

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/19/2021 11:54:23 AM   
DWReese

 

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Set up any situation that you like. Fire a SM-6 at a DF-21. Assuming that you get a hit, you will get a message informing you that you have a 30 percent chance of destroying the missile; and the remaining 70 percent is divided up into either a MINOR TRAJECTORY issue or a SIGNIFICANT TRAJECTORY issue. Usually, the DF-21 requires multiple hits from the SM-6 to destroy it. It may take as many as 6 missiles fired at it to destroy it. Often, some get through, and when they do, your ship is toast.

Have you never seen this before? I've tried every version of this missile and they all deliver the same results.

Doug

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/19/2021 1:44:26 PM   
thewood1

 

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Here is the message log from a test I modified a while ago from a discussion a problem with the SBXradar. I added a DF-21 at that time to test it. I shut down the WRA for the SM-3s because they kill most of the BMs in exoatmosphic engagements. So only the SM-6s are in play.




Attachment (1)

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/19/2021 1:45:40 PM   
thewood1

 

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This is the engagement environment.




Attachment (1)

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/19/2021 1:52:38 PM   
thewood1

 

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And this is the test scenario. You have to make sure you set WRA properly if you think DF-21s or similar BMs are in play. I keep the SM-6s at max rate of fire for missiles and back off their use on older aircraft and let SM-2s and ESSMs take care of those. A couple things to note...

1) This is a very contrived scenario. Not often you'll find a single USN warship floating around without some significant overwatch from the rest of the fleet and onshore resources.

2) On the other side, if you are going to shoot at a single unsupported USN ship, Shoot at least eight missiles (RVs)

3) It is a little hair-raising. The RVs can get pretty close before getting it. OODA is crucial, but not game changing. I have the USN ship at Veteran. At regular, now and then, one of the four RVs gets through.

4) I have played around a little with the DF-26 and it has very difficult parameters for an SM-6 engagement. You will really depend on theater-wide support and SM-3s.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by thewood1 -- 3/19/2021 1:53:07 PM >

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/19/2021 2:52:35 PM   
thewood1

 

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I will also point out, the goal of any conventional ASBM engagement is mission kill, not just missile kill. If you think every missile hit in the atmosphere will keep the missile from hitting somewhere on the surface, you are misinformed about physics. The RVs are VERY fast and have a huge amount of inertia. The one change that I might consider for CMO is if the RV is hit on its downward trajectory within the atmosphere, within say 30 nm of the ship, there is X chance of some debris hitting the ship. That might already be abstracted in the trajectory change calculations. I don't know.

To make a ship-borne warhead that can hit with enough force to completely destroy the RV is a physics fantasy. The goal is to knock the ASBM out of the engagement with minimal cost and resource. That is what the SM-6 does.

The short of it is, one DF-21 against a single USN ABM-capable ship with the SM-6s and the correct WRA is a no contest in favor of the ship. Even at 4-6, with the right VLS loadout and crew experience, is still more than likely in favor of the ship.

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/19/2021 5:40:37 PM   
thewood1

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DWReese

Have you actually fired the SM-3 at the DF-21 and DF-26 in the game? If so, then you will see that, more often than not, they don't kill the incoming missile. Instead, you get a message that that the DF-21 (or DF-26) is knocked off course, and then (I assume) that it performs an extra computation and advises you of the results, i.e. it is 'slightly off course, or 'majorly' off course, etc. I have rarely seen that the incoming missiles are destroyed completely. When the DF-21 (or DF-26) missiles hit, despite the number of off-course hits that they have suffered, they always seem to hit their targets.

Try it out, if you haven't already done so.

Doug


My bold above. I have never seen that before. Here is the cap of the MSG log SM-3s against DF-26s. Have run it several times. Where does it say any place that it was just a course altered?





And just for clarity, the MSG log "Contact Change" section says each weapon has vanished that corresponds to the hits by the SM-3. Again, physics says that if you hit the main vehicle or an RV in space, nothing is re-entering to the surface. SM-6s on the other hand are dealing with RVs at speed in the atmosphere, where a hit won't necessarily keep parts of the RV from hitting the surface.

Its actually some pretty good simulations being executed there.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by thewood1 -- 3/19/2021 5:47:01 PM >

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/20/2021 12:03:34 AM   
Zanthra

 

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The chances of intercepting ballistic missiles in a real life engagement with modern weapons and sensors is still an unknown. Even to those with more information than most of us have. It’s very easy to imagine CMO being wildly inaccurate in it’s portrayal of ABM engagement probabilities, one way or the other, and I hope we never get a chance to compare it to real world results.


< Message edited by Zanthra -- 3/20/2021 12:04:32 AM >

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/20/2021 12:52:32 AM   
DWReese

 

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In essence, what you are saying is true---these are pretty close to being hypothetical weapons at this point.

The US has test fired, and intercepted, a few test dummy missiles, and the Chinese have fired their missiles and struck some non-moving ground targets. Neither of these events is proof positive as to how either weapon will perform in real life circumstances. So, what you say is absolutely true.

That being said, we do know that the missiles really do exist. There are missiles that are referred to by these names. How will they perform is anyone's guess. In fact, how will ANY weapon in CMO actually perform when the time comes? Will the Sidewinder still be any good? Will the Sparrow continue to be bad? Can the US actually shoot down these super-sonic, low altitude Anti-Ship missiles? Who knows? Everything is merely a guess at this point.

But, just because it's a guess doesn't mean that it shouldn't, somehow, find its way into our game. I don't see how a current scenario involving China in the South China Sea could be completed without having missiles such as the DF-21 being a part of it. It is what people want to see.

So, whether it's a guess, or hardcore facts, it doesn't really matter. When the Pentagon sits down to play their war games, whether they are using CMO or some other sim, someone there is going to do the same thing that we are going to do---they are going to fire the missiles at the aircraft carrier and see if it can survive. Without a doubt, that's what's going to happen. So, even if it isn't real and everything is boiled down to just guesses, the issue has to be addressed. The topic is too hot.

If we woke up tomorrow morning and heard that the Chinese had fired 8 DF-21 missiles at a carrier group, each of us would be setting up our own scenarios using the same units that were reportedly involved. Why? Because that's what we do. We do this for fun, and CMO allows us to create a fantasy world that we like to believe is sort of/kind of/maybe real. Plus, it's fun.

So, I can foresee that sometime in the not too distant future, the DF-21 (or some other missile) will be fired at real ships (possibly a carrier) and all of our make-believe scenarios will suddenly become very real. Will we (and the sim) be ready?

Doug

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/20/2021 1:21:16 AM   
Zanthra

 

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I absolutely agree with you. I think it's great that these weapons are represented in the game, and can be played with, and certainly there already are many scenarios in the SCS featuring these weapons. Just take any of the ABM results of this game with a grain of salt when applying them to the real military and political ramifications of these weapons in the south china sea.

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/20/2021 1:57:32 PM   
BDukes

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zanthra

I absolutely agree with you. I think it's great that these weapons are represented in the game, and can be played with, and certainly there already are many scenarios in the SCS featuring these weapons. Just take any of the ABM results of this game with a grain of salt when applying them to the real military and political ramifications of these weapons in the south china sea.



Exactly. Don't get too hung up on precisely modeling the stats of any particular unit as a lot is secret. The game itself is a simulation and not a 100% model of reality. What you want to do is try and model things enough to be able to think about them more rather than come to any real conclusion on them. A sim is a tool, that's it.

I wrote Chains of War DLC I think in 2015-2016. Perceptions, technology, politics and even my favorite ice-cream has changed since then. Not much in it is relevant now other than a few ideas that still float and the entertainment value. The same can be said for the next DLC and the next. Nothing is perfect, canon or permanent but there are always stories to tell and things to think about. Don't even think you're going to nail ABM 100%. You're not. Aim for a pretty good model for people to think about.

Mike

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/20/2021 2:43:33 PM   
DWReese

 

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Mike,

I was mentioning this to Kushan the other day: Any thoughts of all of you great scenario designers going back and updating your older classics with a few more of this, and a replacement for that in a way to keep the scenario up to date? Your scenario that he played last week is a great example. It's ABSOLUTELY PERFECT for what he does on his Saturday play-through. It's a perfect size, and is manageable in the two hours that he has to play.

Many scenarios just need a little bit of a makeover to be fresh again.

Doug

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/20/2021 3:47:02 PM   
BDukes

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DWReese

Mike,

I was mentioning this to Kushan the other day: Any thoughts of all of you great scenario designers going back and updating your older classics with a few more of this, and a replacement for that in a way to keep the scenario up to date? Your scenario that he played last week is a great example. It's ABSOLUTELY PERFECT for what he does on his Saturday play-through. It's a perfect size, and is manageable in the two hours that he has to play.

Many scenarios just need a little bit of a makeover to be fresh again.

Doug


Nope. That's in the past. Right now my focus is being excited about all the awesome new scenario writers out there and the cool things they're coming up with. I love watching them succeed. This is why I like Kushan's channel as well.

I build stuff now for me to enjoy. My own inner critic offers enough back and forth!

Mike


< Message edited by BDukes -- 3/20/2021 3:49:46 PM >

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/20/2021 5:03:00 PM   
DWReese

 

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I[i] build stuff now for me to enjoy. My own inner critic offers enough back and forth!

Roger that.

Doug

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/20/2021 5:11:39 PM   
BDukes

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DWReese

I[i] build stuff now for me to enjoy. My own inner critic offers enough back and forth!

Roger that.

Doug


I have no idea what Italizing I means. Did I do something wrong?

Mike

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/20/2021 5:55:46 PM   
DWReese

 

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No. I wanted to place all of it as part of the quote and I only captured the "I". The attempt obviously failed. <G>

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RE: DF-21 missiles test fired in SCS - 3/20/2021 6:04:50 PM   
BDukes

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DWReese

No. I wanted to place all of it as part of the quote and I only captured the "I". The attempt obviously failed. <G>


Ok cool!

Thanks

Mike

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