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Suggestions about Airforce - 2/23/2021 10:03:37 AM   
klzlueylx


Posts: 65
Joined: 4/19/2020
From: PRC
Status: offline
Strategic Bombing in warplan has troubled me for quite a long while since i first played this game in 1.003.
The problem is, Even there is no any interceptors, bombing the cities is still a bad deal. with only AA defense like 2 level, could sometimes cause a 1 or 2 damage to bombers. let's make a calculation:
Tactical Bomber price 300, each strength cost 15.
Strategic Bomber proce 400, each strength cost 20.

as the manual did not give a formula about how AA ratings shot down aircrafts, i made a experiment using 3 Tactical Bombers of 1939 from UK and France, didnot develop it higher; removed GER's air unit. Let these 3 Bomber unit bomb empty GER citys with no interceptor, and no unit in hex, only 2 AA ratings(which all GER cities have).

the result is, in 50 tries (mostly clear weather), 2AA rating cities shot down 23 bombers, while most trying deal 1 damage to city itself.(there were 1 time dealed 2 damage). which give us a 1/2 chance to lose 1 airplane.
During whole experience, the bombers' effeciency is between 70-100%.(thanks to the heavy rain and snow)

then let's do the math:
Most city got 5 points of industry. assuming we got enough plane at their best perfermence, only targeting this 1 single city to destroy:

since the damage would be maintained at 5, the production points GER lost would be y=5x (x is the time).(actually is 3x, for this game repairs 2points at GER's Turns' beginning, and product at his Turn's ending.)

while the Allies must use 5 bombers to first deal the damage, then use 2 bombers each turn to maintain this damage; that made it's lost being: y= [5+2(x-1)]/2 *15 = 15x+22.5

****, i was thinking on a curve slowly catch up a stright line, to show you need to keep bombing a city for such long time to win back your lost pp. sorry, no, with this damn only 5pp city you never win back your money but lose 3 times you caused damage.

let's change a siuation then:

assuming there were, let's say 10 cities, which happened to be the sites that from France territory, given a 10 hex range (Tactical), that could be bombed.(oil sites not included.)
They are:Stuttgart, Munich, Nuremburg,Prague,Dresden,Leipzig,Cologne,Dusseldorf,Essen and hex 150,61.
4 of them are 5pp,4 are 10pp and 2 are 15pp. for convinence let's assume they are all 10 pp sites. this give's Allies a little advantage as their avarage are actually less. Also, some sites are at the exact extreme range, if Alliance wanna bomb these sites, he have to move his bombers to the very front, adajakent with enemy, which is dangerous and reduce it's efficiency(yes?). That's another advantage. No air unit for Germany, no ground unit helping AA in sites(most unit got a AA rating from 1-2,added to the sites.). here i count the very best advantages that Allies got in this assumption which would never happen. now calculate:

10 cities, 100pps, from the begining they got highest damage, lost pp is:
y=100x (obviously)

Ally loses:
y=[100+20(x-1)]/2*15=150x+600.

ohh no. even with this much favorable condition, air bombing is still a hugh failure.By now you may have noticed the regularity:

only when the bombing target's average pp is above 15, the bomber player could have a chance to not lose too much. the number of cities, number of units are not relevent. This result is based on the assumption that AA rating is 2, no inteceptor attended, efficiency high and weather keeps clear.

Then is there any suitable target?
Yes. But only a few. Like Lille( under France control), Paris, London, Berlin.

To be clear, through Strategic bombers did get a higher range allow them to bomb a further target, but their loss rate won't reduce, and it's damage is not improved highly enough to take it seriously practical. And it's more expensive.










Given all those reasons above, a result could be drawn:
in currenr version, Bombing cities is way too risky an operation to execute.

_____________________________

Victory at all costs.
Post #: 1
RE: Suggestions about Airforce - 2/23/2021 10:10:12 AM   
klzlueylx


Posts: 65
Joined: 4/19/2020
From: PRC
Status: offline
And oh,

please check if the production is indeed after repair? because if it is, 1-2 damage on sites would be totally useless.

And also, shouldn't Air units recover more efficiency in HeavyRain and Blizard weather, since they cannot attack, so I guess pilots are wandering in bars these weeks.

And also, I noticed that in snow weather, my bomber units magically lost effiency. They are set to Missions only, No enemy activity was performed since I used hotseat to test. So they did nothing, did not move, did not fly, didnot get harassed but lost efficiency. They are in 9 supply status and away from enemy. That should be a bug.

_____________________________

Victory at all costs.

(in reply to klzlueylx)
Post #: 2
RE: Suggestions about Airforce - 2/23/2021 11:04:02 AM   
Nirosi

 

Posts: 203
Joined: 9/17/2017
Status: offline
Hi K,

I am not sure if the formula takes into account the repair cost for planes that is only 40% for the build cost? However, I agree that strategic bombing is not useful early on, but believe me, I have seen as Germany how effective it is latter such as 1943-44. Bomber defense and attack is much better (and crew experience also as they can "train"!) and also the production multiple is about 1.7-1.8. So each PP bombed is worth much more in 44 that 39 and more of them are destroyed.

Another aspect to consider is the fact that one needs not maintain the damage every turn. You can easily skip a turn and still be very effective. If you had 10 cities down to 0, even if you do not fly next turn, the production loss will still be 80% of what it was the previous turn with the Allies doing nothing.

And of course, there is the PP production ratios between the Allies and the Axis. The Allies still wins in the end unless the Axis does way more damage to them than the reverse.

In 1943, as Germany I had to use 5-6 fighters (that were not somewhere else important) and plenty of new AA to protect my city against the Allies and it was brutal once Allies escorts started appearing. Yes the Allies where losing a lot, but their economy was not at a risk of been paralyzed, Germany's on the other was if relying only on AAs. It is a question of tech advancement I believe and rotation with rest for plane taking pauses too and letting the time still do damage as you watch.

PS : can you give an example for the allies loss formula please with the meaning of all variables just to make sure I understood properly.

(in reply to klzlueylx)
Post #: 3
RE: Suggestions about Airforce - 2/23/2021 11:07:55 AM   
boldairade

 

Posts: 163
Joined: 1/15/2005
Status: offline
but it shouldn't be effective early on.

because it wasn't. it didn't get rolling until far later in the war.

furthermore, you could make the case that often the losses to bomber formations during the war were not worth the damage they did.

from an overall strategic standpoint though, it's an asymmetrical deal.

if the allies are suffering 110% of the losses they are inflicting, that's a win. because of course, they have FAR more industrial power than the axis by early 42.

it's easier in WP to open up new fronts vs the axis. but it still takes a bit of doing. with three or four heavy bomber formations, you can start bleeding them immediately.

that's not how i usually do it. but i think the current model isn't that far off.

(in reply to Nirosi)
Post #: 4
RE: Suggestions about Airforce - 2/23/2021 2:08:36 PM   
klzlueylx


Posts: 65
Joined: 4/19/2020
From: PRC
Status: offline
oh you are right i totally forget the 40% rule, so that element i never counted in! which made this whole calculation wrong!(but it's still costs too much to repair i believe)


and for the explaination you asked,
for example,
in the y=(100+20(x-1))/2*15.

100 is the needed flight number to fully destroy all ten cities, as i assume there are 10 cities each got 10pp,and each flight damage it 1 point.

20 is the maintaining damage flight number(since turn 2), since each turn it repair's 2 points and there are 10 cities.

x-1 is the maintain damage turns, since first turn is not count in.

divided by 2, for each flight it got about 0.5 possiblity to lose a strength.

15 is each strength's cost, which is 300(tactical)/20=15.

as you mentioned there is a 40% rule i missed, 15 should get a discount making it 6.

so sorry for the mistake!!!

(in reply to Nirosi)
Post #: 5
RE: Suggestions about Airforce - 2/23/2021 2:15:08 PM   
klzlueylx


Posts: 65
Joined: 4/19/2020
From: PRC
Status: offline
sorry replyed wrong person dunno how to delete

< Message edited by klzlueylx -- 2/23/2021 2:22:25 PM >

(in reply to boldairade)
Post #: 6
RE: Suggestions about Airforce - 2/23/2021 2:51:56 PM   
AlvaroSousa


Posts: 7698
Joined: 7/29/2013
Status: offline
Strategic bombing, like most things in WarPlan, isn't a min-max game. It's a game of positioning and attrition that has more to it than most players think.

If you never do strat bombing the Germans never spend on AA or air sups which means they spend more on tanks which means the Russians take more damage which may cost more than the losses from bombing in the long run.

The Allies can afford to attrition the Germans 2:1 when they have more than a 2:1 advantage in production.

I have 20 units you have 10 units.
I do 25% damage to you, you do 50% damage to me.

round 0 - 20.0 vs 10
round 1 - 15.0 vs 5.00
round 2 - 12.5 vs 1.25
round 3 - 11.8 vs DEAD

The key is to find what is optimal for the situation.


_____________________________

Games worked on

Designer of the Strategic Command 2 products
- Brute Force (mod)
- Assault on Communism
- Assault on Democracy

Designer of the Strategic Command 3 products
- Map Image Importer

(in reply to klzlueylx)
Post #: 7
RE: Suggestions about Airforce - 2/23/2021 3:43:39 PM   
Nirosi

 

Posts: 203
Joined: 9/17/2017
Status: offline
quote:

oh you are right i totally forget the 40% rule, so that element i never counted in! which made this whole calculation wrong!(but it's still costs too much to repair i believe)


and for the explaination you asked,
for example,
in the y=(100+20(x-1))/2*15.

100 is the needed flight number to fully destroy all ten cities, as i assume there are 10 cities each got 10pp,and each flight damage it 1 point.

20 is the maintaining damage flight number(since turn 2), since each turn it repair's 2 points and there are 10 cities.

x-1 is the maintain damage turns, since first turn is not count in.

divided by 2, for each flight it got about 0.5 possiblity to lose a strength.

15 is each strength's cost, which is 300(tactical)/20=15.

as you mentioned there is a 40% rule i missed, 15 should get a discount making it 6.

so sorry for the mistake!!


Thanks

(in reply to klzlueylx)
Post #: 8
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