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WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A)

 
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WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/20/2021 8:56:43 AM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 428
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
Well, finally, I decided to start an AAR here on the forum.

The match is against a Danish experienced player, Thomas, whose nick is XENXEN. He has many successful games under his belly and I have few under mine.

It's a Scen01 stock game with SL and few HRs.


As for the title... Well, I am quite intrigued by all the non-sexy things of the game, chiefly logistics. Being a logistician IRL, my partner is astonished I want even more of it in my free time, but I guess everyone has some fetish.


I have just played the 11th Dec turn, here is a very brief recap of the current situation:



GRAND STRATEGY

I will follow a grand strategy I tried in another match, with the aim of doing better. The bottom line is: smashing as much as possible Commonwealth forces and Chinese, so that I can focus on US later on in the game.

My posture in the Pacific Ocean will be defensive for the entire match. Hopefully, I will be involved in some kind of attrition war in the Salomon chain, where I can somehow delay the US forces while the bulk of my armies are in India.

Ideally, I'll be able to concentrate my efforts for a decisive battle against the americans somewhere in 1943. I highly doubt there will be any possibility before that date.


OPERATIONS

Currently, we are at turn 5, so we already did few moves.

The idea is fairly simple: skipping Philippines, massive Mersing in order to grab Singers early, calm approach to Java and landing in India in mid/late January 1942.


CURRENT SITUATION

I landed on Mersin on 7th Dec. I had no big issues, with a couple of xAKs sunk and a DD which ended its career on the bottom of the sea in front of Mersing itself.
Most of the Malaysian army is cut off and I am now in the process of getting Johore Baru.

On 7th Dec I also landed on Watampone with few troops and air support, here the logic is quite straightforward: establishing an advanced base in Makassar in order to put some pressure over southern Java.

In the Pacific, I am now grabbing the various bases in the Salomon Sea. Wake is scheduled to be attacked in few turns. Guam and Rabaul tomorrow. Port Moresby fell on 8th Dec.

KB has attacked Manila on 7th Dec and is now covering the retreat of the forces landed in Watampone. Refuel in Babeldaob and then support for the Wake invasion. Nothing really interesting for the time being.

China has seen few moves. I have somehow kept Ichang and reinforced it. The main operation in the area is scheduled in few weeks: liberation of the Peking-Hankow railway and push toward Sian.





---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


See you soon with industrial and logistics madness!

_____________________________

Francesco
Post #: 1
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/20/2021 1:12:54 PM   
RADM.Yamaguchi


Posts: 749
Joined: 6/30/2019
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Hi Francesco, Good luck on your new game.

Was there a particular reason for grabbing Watampone rather than on of the other bases on Celebes or nearby islands? It appears that there is no airfield there.

If you are heading for Wake have the U.S. CVs moved on? Do you know where they are? Or do you have KB to cover?

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 2
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/20/2021 2:35:38 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 428
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
Hi there Yamaguchi.


Yes there are few reasons behind Watampone.
Now, I generally do something different (Manado day-1, then I grab Kendari and Makassar). In this case I want to clarify my opponent that I will attack southern Java.
Watampone makes me march inland toward Makassar, something which will take few days. The allied opponent will probably start reinforcing southern Java.
I will land in Loemadjang and Banjoewangi (or whatever their spell is) in Java. He will try to move to Malang from Soerabaja. At that point, I'll pin down his forces in Malang and land in Kalidati, Merak and Kragan, cutting off Batavia and marching on Soerabaja, which will be hopefully taken with few losses.

In case he doesn't reinforce Malang, I got anyway a nice spot to develop on Cocos Island a key target for me.

So, Watampone is mostly a sort of random deception, aimed at making him understand that I will strike southern Java and therefore inviting him to reinforce Soerabaja. After I land in the southern tip of Java, the temptation of trapping me there exploiting Malang good terrain will be incredible. I'll take care to land a force which is big enough to be a threat, but small enough to make think it's possible to trap.



Regarding Wake. I think he has moved Catalinas from there. Since I skipped Philippines, I'm setting up a NavS position in Marcus Island in order to intercept blockade runners. I got an old CL (one of those 18knts ships) moving straight from Kwajalein to Marucs: no DL on the ship.
My plan is to check whether my approach is discovered and then decide whether to continue or withdraw the invasion force (the GuardsMixedBrigade from Tokio on fast APs and xAK-ts). Given the fact that my ships do 10 hexes in full speed, I'm quite sure I will be able to pull back in case I get spotted.



Consider that in any case I have 2xCVLs+Kaga in the area. I reinforced Roi-Namur with a second group of IJNAF bombers and put the AirHQ from Kwajalein there (for the air support). If he moves his CVs in a careless way, I can try to play a nasty joke on them.


_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to RADM.Yamaguchi)
Post #: 3
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/20/2021 2:39:18 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 16364
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RADM.Yamaguchi

Hi Francesco, Good luck on your new game.

Was there a particular reason for grabbing Watampone rather than on of the other bases on Celebes or nearby islands? It appears that there is no airfield there.

If you are heading for Wake have the U.S. CVs moved on? Do you know where they are? Or do you have KB to cover?

Watampone is undefended so the landing is cheap. Then it is a short march to Makassar with disruption recovered.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to RADM.Yamaguchi)
Post #: 4
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/20/2021 2:43:52 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 428
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
Well, just opened 12th Dec turn and I sunk Saratoga with 3 torpedoes from a sub EAST of PH

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 5
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/20/2021 2:48:50 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 16364
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Well, just opened 12th Dec turn and I sunk Saratoga with 3 torpedoes from a sub EAST of PH

Only laughing? That calls for some serious imbibing of beverage!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 6
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/20/2021 7:50:19 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 10170
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Well, just opened 12th Dec turn and I sunk Saratoga with 3 torpedoes from a sub EAST of PH

Only laughing? That calls for some serious imbibing of beverage!



_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 7
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/21/2021 3:29:26 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 428
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
Here we are again.


Let's start the "industrial and logistical madness post" !




CONVOYS

I define only convoys for places I already have in my possession: therefore, no convoys are going to be listed for key areas such as Palembang & co. Rationale behind this: I don't know how many intact resources I will capture in Location A or B, so there is no need to setup something which will need to be revised in any case.
Clearly, I take into account my forecasts about shipping needs in areas which will fall under my control.

Generally, I run very large convoys just like the allies did in the Atlantic. I find that's the most reasonable way to manage sea routes.

A brief overlook at the cargo classes available.


1) xAK Yusen-A Class
18knts speed (5/4) and a nice 6.380 capacity (no liquid capacity). 6.840tons.
7 available and 0 in production.
They'll all convert to AKs as soon as I do finish the initial set of operations, where their speed and capacity is more than welcomed.


2) AK Yusen-S Class
18knts speed (5/4), 6.380 capacity and 6.840ton. 10 available and 0 in production.
They'll stay AKs and, together with their friends from Yusen-A Class and various xAPs, will be devoted to move the strategic reserves in case of need.


3) xAK Kyushu Class
18knts speed (5/4), 5.412 capacity and 5.935ton.
32 available and 0 in production.
These guys have very interesting conversions available: AS ; AV ; AR ; AK ; AKE.
My plan is to do the following conversions:
a) 7 to ARs (360 days - available from April 1942)
b) 10 to AKE (30 days - available from April 1942)
c) 5 to AV (210 days - available from December 1941)
d) 10 to AK (27 days - available from June 1942)
Until the conversions become available, they'll participate in the various operations. If I lose some of them in the process (highly probable), I'll convert less to AKs.
Rationale: AVs are always useful for my FP in ASW, AKEs are otrageously needed for my "bombardment trains" and ARs are, quite straightforwardly, in high demand all along the game.


4) xAK Yusen-N Class
15knts speed (4/3), 5.795 cargo capacity plus 300 liquid capacity. 6.400tons.
57 available and 0 in production.
They have AK and AKE conversions available from June 1942.
My current idea is to use them to haul resources from Singapore to Onshu, giving me some little fuel/oil cargo as well.
AK conversion is still over the table, though: I always need more AKs than I have in late game.


5) xAK Lima Class
14knts speed (4/3) for 6.125 cargo capacity and 6.475tons.
46 available and 0 in production.
Big ships, which will be used for several convoys. Currently, 5 are allocated to convoy duty and 41 are still to be allocated.


6) xAK Toho Class
14knts speed (4/3), 3.525 cargo capcity and 3.675tons.
53 available and 2 in production at 07/12/1941.
I love these guys: they have very good speed, a wonderful endurance of 222hex and their small size means they can both dock everywhere and unload quickly.
They're going to serve in the Pacific to haul supplies and troops between major hubs and intermediary hubs (more about that later).
Many will be kept in reserve.


7) xAK Ansyu-C Class
14knts speed (4/3), 3.001 capacity for 2.980tons.
54 available and 0 in production.
Similar to the Toho Class, but even more advantageous in terms of cargo/tons.
They will be used near the frontline together with xAKLs, but most will be converted to PBs.


8) xAK Husimi Class
14knts (4/3), with 4.420 cargo capacity and 4.675tons.
25 available and 0 in production.
They have a set of nice conversions, mirroring the ones available for the Kyushu Class, but they do not benefit from the speed of that class.
Mostly kept in reserve.


9) xAK Lima Class
14knts speed (4/3), 6.125 cargo capacity and 6.475tons.
46 available and 0 in production.
They have 2 conversions available (AKV and AKE).
Given their major cargo capacity and good speed, they will serve in various roles, integrating the Aden Class in shippin stuff around the map.
16 of them are converted to AKE immediately.


10) xAK Aden Class
12knts speed (3/3), 4.670 cargo capacity and 4.875 tons.
189 available and 0 in production.
The workhorse of the IJ Merchant Navy. Ubiquitous ships which will be used (and lost) in big numbers.
They have 2 conversions available (AKV and AKE).
87 of these ships are already assigned to convoy duty, the remaining 102 are available for supporting the current operations and shipping stuff around the map.
More will be used for convoy duty as soon as they will be free.


11) xAK Akasi Class
12knts speed (3/3), 3.750 cargo capacity and 3.675ton.
58 available and 1 in production at 07/12/1941.
They are good small xAKs and will be used mostly in the DEI, where the bulk of the class will be kept disbanded in reserve.


12) xAK Ehime Class
12knts speed (3/3), 3.575 cargo capacity and 3.425tons.
58 available and 0 in production.
They will be used for convoy duty in forward areas and kept in reserve.
Some will be eventually converted to ADs, but I still have not made up my mind about that.


13) xAK Std-C Class
Disbanded in Onshu and will be converted on June 1942 to TKs.


14) xAK Gozan Class
10knts speed (3/2), 2.310 cargo capcity and 2.375tons.
58 available and 0 in production.
They are all already allocated to convoy duties.
The class is quite useful for small routes: the small size ensures they are loaded quickly and the speed is not an issue, given that they spend most of the time in harbour loading/unloading. I definitely like the class.


15) xAKL Kasu-D Class
12knts speed (3/3), 1.725 cargo capacity and 1.900tons.
46 available and 0 in production.
I love these guys, since they are the only xAKLs with good speed.
Used in forward areas to ship stuff. They'll incurr in high losses, but that's life.


16) xAKL Kiso-E Class
11knts speed (3/2), 795 cargo capacity and 830tons.
69 available and 0 in production.
Differently from the common perspective, I like these guys as xAKLs. They are not that bad and, especially, expendable.
I will probably convert 29 to PBs and keep the rest as xAKLs for minor convoys.


17) xAKL To'su Class
10knts speed (3/2), 170 cargo capacity and 215tons.
31 available and 1 in production.
I will convert a good share of them to more useful ships, especially PBs and ACMs.
Some of them will be kept as cargo. 6 are already allocated to convoy duty.


18) xAKL Miyati Class
10knts speed (3/2), 2.027 cargo capacity and 2.050tons.
59 available and 1 in production.
They are supposed to be used to supply as cargo ships for minor convoys and as AGP.
I still have not made up my mind regarding the number of ships to be converted to AGP, but I aim for a healthy 15.
12 already allocated to convoy duties.


19) xAKL Daigen Class
10knts speed (3/2), 1.570 cargo capacity and 1.650tons.
68 available and 0 in production.
They will be used to supply forward areas, where their relatively small cargo capacity and tonnage will ensure a smooth unloading.
Given the fact they'll be the closest to the enemy, I expect horrendous losses for the class.



More cargo classes are yet to arrive through shipbuilding, but that's the initial setup. Nothing really special, to be fair.



Now the convoys already defined.


A) Sakhalin
Sakhalin has 520 RES and 30 OIL. 40 LI are present in Toyohara.
Now, RES production is 520*20=10.400 per-day. Consumption for the LIs is 600 per-day.
Daily net (RES) = 9.800
Daily net (OIL) = 300
My idea is to ship from Toyohara to Wakkanai (original, eh? ). The route is 6 hexes.
Toyohara is going to be a port lvl4 and therefore will dock 48.000tons. Given the presence of RES in the base, there are bonus associated to the loading.
I should be able to run a convoy every 3 days, more likely 4 when we take into consideration occasional repairs etcetc.
4 days equals to 9.800*4=39.200ton of RES to be shipped to keep Sakhalin empty.
12 xAK Gozan Class will be allocated to the convoy. 2 will be kept disbanded in Toyohara as reserve.
The Gozan Class has a speed of 10knts only, so it won't do the 6 hex trip in one single day but it's not an issue.
Given the cargo capacity of 2.310tons, the convoy will carry 27.720 RES. It will suffice to keep Sakhalin basically empty if the convoy runs every 3 days and it will create a little surplus if we consider a 4-day turnaround. The convoys will have a turnaround of 3.5 days to be fair, but to keep it simple it's easier to take into account either 3 or 4.
The surplus will be periodically shipped back when I will bring troops and supplies to Sakhalin.

The 300 daily OIL will be shipped from Shikuka, where it is produced.
Shikuka-Wakkanai will be the route and it will have a turnaround of 8 days. A couple of Type-1S TK with a liquid capacity of 1.250 will be used. 2 will be kept in reserve since I generally lose many of these guys on this route.
With 2 Type-1S TKs and a turnaround of 8 days I have a fancy 312 OIL shipped per-day, which is more than I actually produce. However, we have to take into consideration the usual problems such as repairing ships, slowdowns from sub attacks and especially the fact that I will ship FUEL on the return trip starting in few weeks. Moreover, I won't start the convoy immediately, so I will also have a little stock to be exhausted.


B) Hokkaido
Hokkaido as a whole has a production of 40.000ton per-day of RES (2.000*20=4.000).240LI 90HI are present and they do consume 240*15=3.600RES + 90*20=1.800RES per-day for a total of 3.600+1.800=5.400RES.
This gives us a net of 40.000-5.400=34.600 RES per-day. To this amount we add the average of 7.920 from Sakhalin (27.720/3,5) for a grand total of 42.520 RES per-day.
Quite a big amount to be shipped.
I will have Hakodate-Ominato convoy. Turnaround of 4 days. 20 xAK Aden Class will be used for a total of 93.400 cargo shipped every 4 days, or 23.350 daily.
Muroran-Hirosaki will be another convoy. 4 days turnaround (more likely 5). 12 xAK Gozan Class (+2 in reserve) will be used. Total of 27.720tons or 6.930ton daily (when we consider 4 days, obviously less when we consider 5).
Sapporo-Ominato is the third and last convoy. It will take approx. 8 days for it (2 loading + 2 going + 2 unloading + 2 going back). I will use 20 xAK Aden Class (+5 in reserve) for a total of 93.400tons (just like Hakodate-Ominato). Daily shipment will be 11.675tons.
Therefore I will have 3 convoys with the following average daily shipment: 23.350+6.930+11.675=41.955tons of RES per-day. Out of a net available of 42.520.
A small surplus is present, but it does not really bother me: I always ship quite a good amount of stuff to Hokkaido.


Hokkaido produces also OIL. 150 per-day. With the addition of the approx. 300 OIL per-day from Shikuka, I am at 450 OIL per-day. Not a big deal. Sapporo-Hirosaki with a couple Type-1S TK and a turnaround of 7 days will net +357 OIL per-day to Onshu. 2 TKs will be kept in reserve since they do sink continuously. I do not really care of the daily surplus of 100 OIL.


C) Korea
Usual Fusan-Fukuoka. 35 xAK Ehime Class are going to be used with 0 in reserve. Cargo of 125.125tons transported and nothing relevant to be noted.


D) China
Shangai-Nagasaki. 20 xAK Aden Class with 5 in reserve. They ship RES out of China, which I plan to subjugate.
A nice convoy will also be run from Nagasaki to Hankow with few xAKLs to ship SUPPLIES for the major AF I will build there. Since it will host billions of planes, I'll need a good stock of SUPPLIES. Once the railway Peking-Hankow will be free, I will stop this convoys.

E) Formosa
170*20=3.400 RES produced daily and a consumption of 80*15=1.200 due to the 80 LIs present.
Net of 2.200 RES per-day.
Tahioku-Kagoshima is going to be the convoy shipping these RES and it will have a turnaround of approx. 12 days. 5 xAK Aden Class (+5 in reserve) will do the trick, shipping an average of 1.946 RES per-day to Onshu.

Formosa produces a little bit of OIL. Until the small TKs become available, I will run a single Type-1S TK to ship it back to Onshu, even if it means she will have to be stopped for a while every few shipments due to an insufficient production in Formosa.


F) Nauru
Since I have already captured the place, I setup the convoy. I really don't like these very distant convoys, but I decided to give it a go in this game.
Nauru has available 98(2) RES and I won't repair the 2 damaged ones. 98*20=1.960 RES per-day.
Nauru has a small lvl3 port (currently still lvl2) and the distance between the island and Truk is 25 hexes.
I will run 2 convoys of xAKL Miyati Class of 6 ships each. The turnaround is approx. 14 days. Only 5 will be optimistically kept in reserve.
This should give a daily transport of 1.737RES from Nauru to Truk and a small surplus created. I won't bother further with these RES and they're gonna remain there.
RES stocked in Truk will be shipped back to Onshu every time a convoy of reinforcements comes down from there. I do not plan to ship them in an organised fashion.


G) Christmas Island IO
Haven't got the base yet, but it's undefended and I'll land there very soon, so it's safe to assume I'll grab it intact.
It provides 220 RES per-day (11*20) and it's nice to ship them to the RES-hungry Java, where I will also expand the HI.
A questionable convoy of 6 xAKLs To'su Class will be used to ship to Tjilitap, few hexes away. Average of 204tons of RES per-day.
Really not a big deal and probably even counterproductive fuel-wise, but I decided to run this convoy anyway. I'll leave it even unescorted.



Given that I still have to conquer most of the bases I'll take, that's it for the time being. The most relevant convoys are yet to be setup.

The choice of not using small xAKLs for convoys in the north and using quite often the large Aden Class is intentional. I prefer to have a reserve of the small xAKLs and xAKs for frontline duty, where they suffer horrendous losses. Given that I have a surplus of Aden Class anyway, I do prefer to keep a strong reserve of small ships for the frontline and employ the Aden Class sub-optimally.







INDUSTRY

A little introduction. A very relevant amount of my choices will look bizarre and dumb, I know that.
I will try an attack on India with the aim of conquering it all at least to emergency reinf. line. It's gonna be bloody and complex.
My general strategy, as mentioned in the opening post, is to damage as much as possible Commonwealth forces, so that more assets will be available to contrast the americans.
Commonwealth forces in India and Australian are potentially the only enemies which can be damaged beyon repair if sufficient losses are inflicted to their LCUs and air forces, therefore they are the only ones which can be somehow pushed out of the conflict.

I suppose I'll keep a strategic defense in the Pacific as long as I will be able to afford it and hope to have a decisive battle against the americans so that I can cripple them enough to slow them.
In line of principle, this kantai kessen is going to be somewhere between mid-1943 and mid-1944. Earlier than that, I doubt the allied player is going to allow myself to entagle him in a decisive battle. Later than that, I won't have any chance of inflicting serious damage so that I can have a strategic advantage out of it.
Clearly, everything is possible. I don't discount that. Just, this is my general guideline for the conduct of the war in the Pacific.

India has the big advantage of putting the allied player in a complex situation: if he reinforces India, he's going to stop me but also to invest precious assets far away from my vital areas. If he leaves it to its own devices, he seriously risks to lose it and has to do something as strategically relevant as that to compensate. Not an easy choice.
Potentially, he can do both of course, but it's running on a razor blade.



Armaments: I immediately expanded to 660 points. I'll need a very large amount of these for my aims.
Vehicles: for the time being, I am at 150 VEH points but I'll expand for sure. I will be able to afford it.
NavShipyards: expanded slightly to 1.400

Engines
20 factories available.
I run the following:
I) 3 Aichi Ha-60 (already repaired on R&D at 7th Dec)
II) 1 Ha-32 size 60
III) 1 Ha-33 size 100 (for the time being)
IV) 2 Ha-34 with the aim of having 500 engines per-month
V) 2 Ha-35 with the aim of having 500 engines per-month
VI) 4 Ha-43 (R&D)
VII) 1 Ha-44 (R&D)
VIII) 3 Ha-45 (R&D)


R&D
As mentioned above, my target is to invade India and fight a decisive battle somewhere between mid-1943 and mid-1944.
The aim of the "decisive battle" is, of course, not to sink the entire US fleet, rather to delay it as much as I can so that my industrial position won't decay as quickly as historically happened.

I am going to do a very questionable R&D plan. I used the spreadsheet called "R&D forecast calculator" to have a rough idea of the arrival of certain models.

The allocation of the 77 factories is:
A) 5 factories on the A6M line. In theory, I should be able to have the A6M5 in August 1942. In theory. It's highly dependant on the engine bonus with the Ha-35 and when the Rufe factories will be repaired. I counted the months supposing an engine bonus + repaired factories from 01/mar/1942. Probabily I will have the engine bonus later and the Rufe factories repaired earlier.
I am going to produce only the A6M5, which will be a jack of all trades for a long time.

B) 10 factories on the A7M2. The spreadsheet gives me a date around July-1944 +/- 30 days. My past experiences do not confirm this, but I hope to be lucky.

C) 15 factories on the Ki-94-II. I know it's a very questionable choice, but that's it. I'll give it a shot. It's really hit or miss with this. In my last PBEM as Japanese I have been somehow able to accelerate it to fall 1944 (Sept 1944 IIRC).

D) 10 Judy-I. Not much to say. I want the Judy-IV ASAP in order to clean my CV decks of the horrible Val. Here the R&D is aimed at having the Judy-IV in spring '43 before the allied player gets the hellcat. I suspect he will be way more aggressive once he has the Hellcats on board and I also think, in case of indecision, he will wait a little bit in order to get rid of the wildcats. My logic is that I want to have the Judy by the time he gets the Hellcats.

E) 8 Oscar line. I will R&D the whole line and produce basically every model using the initial factory already on production. I love the Oscar and I will produce billions of them. In the aforementioned match where I accelerated the Ki-94-II, I had something like 700 Oscar per-month in April '44. It served greatly.

F) 6 Tojo line. Highly dependant on when I do repair factories and how is going the air war. I might skip all the intermediary models and go straight to the Ki-44-IIc Tojo. So far, I have decided to produce the Ki-44-IIa and research also the Ki-44-IIb so that I can switch the production factory.

G) 8 Peggy(T). I love the guy since it gives anti-shipping capabilities to the IJAAF, until then limited to the Lily DB. I tend to produce and lose billions of these planes.

H) 7 Frank-a. Nothing to say.

I) 4 George. Nothing to say. I will produce the second model of the line if the first arrives early enoguh. It should arrive around late spring '43. There is no real space to produce the Jack and I will bet on the George as I usually do.

L) 2 Helen. I go straight to Helen-IIa and produce billions of them. It's going to be my only level bomber for the IJAAF for most of the game.

M) 2 Jill. Nothing to say.


Now, obviously there are many gaps in my R&D, but this is the initial plan. I aim to add few more factories over the course of 1942, switching the ones which have finished their R&D efforts. It's gonna cost supplies. I know. I can do little about that, given my chioces.
Remarkably, I'll need:
a) more R&D on the Jill line
b) R&D on a proper NF
c) R&D on the Grace

There are many planes which will be produced but not researched. My stream of thought is that either I accelerate much a plane or I don't research it. Gaining a couple of months, if lucky, on a secondary plane is not a big deal. Gaining a year on a relevant one, it's quite helpful.



Production

I changed few production factories and expanded few other ones.

A6M2: 70/month
Oscar-Ic: 100/month (inconstant production)
Kate-II: 40/month
Val: 40/month
Jake: 50/month
Nell: 40/month (inconstant production)
Betty: 25/month (until the new Nell comes in May)
Mavis: 10/month (until the Emily comes in July)
Sally: 50/month (for a long time, until the Helen-IIa has taken over)
Dinah: 30/month (production at 0, will be restored when the Dinah-III comes online. Few Dinahs will be produced anyway in the meantime)
Lily: 35/month (don't remember if it upgrades to the lily dive bomber. Don't think so. In any case, I need as many 2E level bombers as I can produce currently)
Thalia: 10/month (will be increased and will be the standard TR for the entire match)

Then I have factories which produce planes of which I do not have any engine production, but I have a stock of engines:
Glen: 9/month (stock will last 13.5 months)
Dave: 20/month (stock will last 12 months and will be used for NavS anti-sub)
Kate-I: 18/month (identical to the Kate-II except for the SR. A plane I like. Stock of engines will last 5,5 months)
Alf: 20/month (same as Dave)
Mary: 18/month (I love the Mary, don't know why. Being a 1E is quite a handy plane. Stock of engines will last until late April 1942 and the factory will switch to the first Nick, available from 01/05/1942)
Ann: 15/month (just like the Mary, it's a good 1E plane. Will be used for ASW patrols in low-priority areas. Good range and SR=1. Engines stock will last until late June 1942 and the factory will switch to the Mavis-TR, available since April 1942).



Bottom line is this: I'll try to do what I can with the trio Tojo-Oscar-A6M2/5 until I can. Then, I will suffer quite a lot until very late models come online.
So, the entire R&D and production is aimed at having a good quality in 1942/early-1943 (when I'll fight in India and I'll have to cover the rest of the map), quality which will fall dramatically between mid-1943 and mid-1944.
Apparently, there is a mismatch between my logic of fighting a decisive battle precisely in the period in which my airforces will fall behind. True. Fact is that I want to have a sort of insurance on the late game and I have zero assurances that I'll be able to force a battle in the period.
For example, in the game in which I accelerated much the Ki-94-II, I have seen the US forces on the offensive for the first time (excepted few unconsequential raids) in early 1944 (March 1944 to be precise). If I would have tailored my industry for a battle between mid-1943 and mid-1944, I simply would have mis-allocated my resources.




So, here we are. There are one million things I'd like to add but putting together this post already took me a couple of days.


Feel free to insult me for the bizarre R&D and to give suggestions. (Especially for the choice of the NF to research... I'm always somewhat short of ideas regarding NFs)

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 8
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/21/2021 3:35:32 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 428
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Well, just opened 12th Dec turn and I sunk Saratoga with 3 torpedoes from a sub EAST of PH

Only laughing? That calls for some serious imbibing of beverage!





Currently being in Prague... Well, I was literally going to close the lap and go purchase some beers when I saw the dropbox notification and decide to run the turn

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 9
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/22/2021 2:02:13 PM   
Evoken

 

Posts: 346
Joined: 10/23/2019
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As someone who struggles with Japanese logistics , i love this. Please continue to educate us

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 10
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/22/2021 2:57:56 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3037
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline
Some thoughts from me:

- Nauru and Christmas IO are two bases you can forget about. You'll run a resource surplus in other areas of the empire much closer to home, so you'll save fuel in the long run.

- I'm surprised that a IRL logistician hasn't crunched the numbers on light industry expansion, particularly regarding the DEI, but also China. Would massive expansion of LI in Manila, Java, and Malaya be a net boost to the IJ economy? I strongly suspect so given the surplus resources that IJ has (or will have after the conquest of the DEI + China), but it would be good to have someone confirm it with a detailed analysis. There's significant scope for long term savings in fuel over the course of the game. There is the usual mantra about the 1100 day "pay off", but that doesn't factor in the strategic benefit of expanded local supply production...

- On the Kiso-E's as xAKL, while I love my xAKL's, they all get converted to PB out of necessity for me. You're just so short of ASW craft as Japan in the early stages of the war that you need them to keep the better stuff free for frontline work. Would much rather throw some Kiso's on a sub than detach fleet DD's.

- Don't use the Kyushu for AKE work, there are plenty of Lima's that are better suited for the role. I would instead convert 15 total to AV's, as they're really good utility ships for Japan, and the 210 day conversion time means it's wise to have reserves. 7 AR's feels about the right number.

- Japan's ability to fight is contingent on supply and fuel. Optimisations on the back-end to make savings prolongs the war for you.

- Related to that last point, I would seriously consider supply expenditure on fort/port/airbase construction. It's not trivial, and properly planning development in advance will help.

- Not having the P1Y Frances in your R&D line up is going to seriously hurt your offensive anti-shipping capability. The Betty/Nell combo is slooooooow and get eaten up come 1943, and the Peggy T arrives fairly late to the party even with R&D.

- I like your style with the Ki-94, but I do wonder if the Ki-83 isn't a more flexible option for the "all in" R&D strategy?

- Helen is a fairly early arrival anyway, and I'm not sold on the view that the IIa is a tangible improvement over alternatives for it to merit R&D - even with armour IJA bombers die to flak in bunches.

- You're over-investing in the Judy line in my view. It's a great step up from the Val (especially with the 500 and later 800kg bomb), but it's not worth ten factories. The Grace is a much more deserving investment IMO.

- Potentially divisive opinion, but do you need 8 factories on the Oscar line? Or even factories on the Oscar at all? The later Oscar versions seem fairly minor improvements, and I would rather have a really transformational airframe (like the Ki84) arriving slightly earlier than essentially the starting Oscar model with two cannons instead of two machine guns...

- Ditto the Tojo, but I do wonder if you could lean more on the George to see you through till the Ki84 comes out in mass.

quote:

There are many planes which will be produced but not researched. My stream of thought is that either I accelerate much a plane or I don't research it. Gaining a couple of months, if lucky, on a secondary plane is not a big deal. Gaining a year on a relevant one, it's quite helpful.


I agree, but I think your list of "primary" planes is a bit off. For me, the absolute key planes are:

A7M (replacement carrier fighter)
N1K George (mainline IJN land based fighter)
Ki84 (mainline IJA fighter and later kamikaze)
Peggy T (IJA anti-shipping)
PY1 Frances (IJN anti-shipping)
Jill (replacement carrier torpedo bomber)
Judy (replacement carrier dive bomber)
Grace (amazing multi-role 1E)
Ki74 Patsy (late-war IJA ersatz B-29/long range kami)
Ki83 (late war IJA sweeper)

(in reply to Evoken)
Post #: 11
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/22/2021 4:29:36 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 428
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Some thoughts from me:

- Nauru and Christmas IO are two bases you can forget about. You'll run a resource surplus in other areas of the empire much closer to home, so you'll save fuel in the long run.

- I'm surprised that a IRL logistician hasn't crunched the numbers on light industry expansion, particularly regarding the DEI, but also China. Would massive expansion of LI in Manila, Java, and Malaya be a net boost to the IJ economy? I strongly suspect so given the surplus resources that IJ has (or will have after the conquest of the DEI + China), but it would be good to have someone confirm it with a detailed analysis. There's significant scope for long term savings in fuel over the course of the game. There is the usual mantra about the 1100 day "pay off", but that doesn't factor in the strategic benefit of expanded local supply production...

- On the Kiso-E's as xAKL, while I love my xAKL's, they all get converted to PB out of necessity for me. You're just so short of ASW craft as Japan in the early stages of the war that you need them to keep the better stuff free for frontline work. Would much rather throw some Kiso's on a sub than detach fleet DD's.

- Don't use the Kyushu for AKE work, there are plenty of Lima's that are better suited for the role. I would instead convert 15 total to AV's, as they're really good utility ships for Japan, and the 210 day conversion time means it's wise to have reserves. 7 AR's feels about the right number.

- Japan's ability to fight is contingent on supply and fuel. Optimisations on the back-end to make savings prolongs the war for you.

- Related to that last point, I would seriously consider supply expenditure on fort/port/airbase construction. It's not trivial, and properly planning development in advance will help.

- Not having the P1Y Frances in your R&D line up is going to seriously hurt your offensive anti-shipping capability. The Betty/Nell combo is slooooooow and get eaten up come 1943, and the Peggy T arrives fairly late to the party even with R&D.

- I like your style with the Ki-94, but I do wonder if the Ki-83 isn't a more flexible option for the "all in" R&D strategy?

- Helen is a fairly early arrival anyway, and I'm not sold on the view that the IIa is a tangible improvement over alternatives for it to merit R&D - even with armour IJA bombers die to flak in bunches.

- You're over-investing in the Judy line in my view. It's a great step up from the Val (especially with the 500 and later 800kg bomb), but it's not worth ten factories. The Grace is a much more deserving investment IMO.

- Potentially divisive opinion, but do you need 8 factories on the Oscar line? Or even factories on the Oscar at all? The later Oscar versions seem fairly minor improvements, and I would rather have a really transformational airframe (like the Ki84) arriving slightly earlier than essentially the starting Oscar model with two cannons instead of two machine guns...

- Ditto the Tojo, but I do wonder if you could lean more on the George to see you through till the Ki84 comes out in mass.

quote:

There are many planes which will be produced but not researched. My stream of thought is that either I accelerate much a plane or I don't research it. Gaining a couple of months, if lucky, on a secondary plane is not a big deal. Gaining a year on a relevant one, it's quite helpful.


I agree, but I think your list of "primary" planes is a bit off. For me, the absolute key planes are:

A7M (replacement carrier fighter)
N1K George (mainline IJN land based fighter)
Ki84 (mainline IJA fighter and later kamikaze)
Peggy T (IJA anti-shipping)
PY1 Frances (IJN anti-shipping)
Jill (replacement carrier torpedo bomber)
Judy (replacement carrier dive bomber)
Grace (amazing multi-role 1E)
Ki74 Patsy (late-war IJA ersatz B-29/long range kami)
Ki83 (late war IJA sweeper)




Thank you very much for the thought answer.

I try to address your useful insights (regrouping them):

BLOCK A
- Nauru and Christmas IO are two bases you can forget about. You'll run a resource surplus in other areas of the empire much closer to home, so you'll save fuel in the long run.

- I'm surprised that a IRL logistician hasn't crunched the numbers on light industry expansion, particularly regarding the DEI, but also China. Would massive expansion of LI in Manila, Java, and Malaya be a net boost to the IJ economy? I strongly suspect so given the surplus resources that IJ has (or will have after the conquest of the DEI + China), but it would be good to have someone confirm it with a detailed analysis. There's significant scope for long term savings in fuel over the course of the game. There is the usual mantra about the 1100 day "pay off", but that doesn't factor in the strategic benefit of expanded local supply production...


Obivously, I did calculate them

I have an heterodox opinion regarding LIs, just like you. My perspective is that making "1+1=2" is both wrong and simplicistic. There are many more considerations to be done. The 1.100 supply expenditure is just the "hard" part of the calculations, but there are many more which I regard as "soft factors".
Now, I am skipping Philippines, so the option of increasing LIs there is out of the table.
For DEI (and not only), I have big plans instead. It is part of my strategic plan to increase industry there dramatically.


This large industrial expansion plan was (and is) meant to be in a later post. Hell, it took me a couple of days to put together the first one only!


Don't get me wrong, I don't say that those who make the 1.100 supply expenditure thought are dumb, I simply do have different thoughts. And, as far as I can read from your post, you too.

China LI expansion is over the table but I haven't made my mind up yet. Since I will conquer the bulk of the DEI soon, I am waiting to see what's the result over there. A badly thrashed Palembang is a major supply expenditure for oil repair (generally, but not exclusively, I do repair only OIL and HI).
Give me few turns and I'll go into the details of the industrial expansion in other key areas.

As I mentioned in the post, I know that the bizarre convoys Christmas IO and Nauru Island can be inefficient. The first is still better than other options fuel-wise. The second is interesting under a broader strategic point of view.


Bottom line is this:
A) I plan to attack India and I am confident to perform a good show over there.
B) I won't overextend in the Pacific. Historical perimeter + Darwin + PM.
C) I plan to do a really big effort in China.
D) Given the strategic situation following points A, B and C, I have that a very likely possibility is to lose the Pacific earlier than the historical pace AND/OR that the allied player will attempt a Northern expedition (Kurili and all that jazz).
In Case A, DEI would be cut off and they would have to be relatively self-sufficient. If anyhow possible, they should contribute to the war effort (and they will...).
In Case B, I will be short of RES and I will need to ship from everywhere I can. That's why in the game I played and from which I am taking inspiration for this, I had created a huge stock of RES in key locations such as Singers and Manila: in case the allied player attacks in the north, I want to be ready to top up the Hokkaido/Sakhalin (and potentially Korea) production using the stocks from DEI.
A confirmation of this approach came in the famous game of Obvert where he ended up with small stocks of RES in Onshu. If he would have created few large stockpiles, he would have had a much easier situation late game.
I admit that there is a bias in my perspective, since I always do this and I might very well subconsciously look for confirmations of my perspective.


BLOCK B
- On the Kiso-E's as xAKL, while I love my xAKL's, they all get converted to PB out of necessity for me. You're just so short of ASW craft as Japan in the early stages of the war that you need them to keep the better stuff free for frontline work. Would much rather throw some Kiso's on a sub than detach fleet DD's.

- Don't use the Kyushu for AKE work, there are plenty of Lima's that are better suited for the role. I would instead convert 15 total to AV's, as they're really good utility ships for Japan, and the 210 day conversion time means it's wise to have reserves. 7 AR's feels about the right number.


Agree on both.


BLOCK C
- Japan's ability to fight is contingent on supply and fuel. Optimisations on the back-end to make savings prolongs the war for you.

- Related to that last point, I would seriously consider supply expenditure on fort/port/airbase construction. It's not trivial, and properly planning development in advance will help.


Agree. I will heavily fortify key areas only. Namely: I) the north; II) Marianas; III) important bases in SoPac.
Port and AF construction is highly dependant on the maximum size and, especially, on how easy it is to bomb it from the sea. There are other considerations, but these are the main ones.


BLOCK D

- Not having the P1Y Frances in your R&D line up is going to seriously hurt your offensive anti-shipping capability. The Betty/Nell combo is slooooooow and get eaten up come 1943, and the Peggy T arrives fairly late to the party even with R&D.

- I like your style with the Ki-94, but I do wonder if the Ki-83 isn't a more flexible option for the "all in" R&D strategy?

- Helen is a fairly early arrival anyway, and I'm not sold on the view that the IIa is a tangible improvement over alternatives for it to merit R&D - even with armour IJA bombers die to flak in bunches.



Missing the Frances is a crime. Still, I devote some factories to it later on (late 1942). It's a big supply expenditure, but I count on two things: A) part of the indian industry to top up; B) I am stingy as hell on supply expenditure for mundane stuff such as the aforementioned passion of people for building big forts everywhere.
In the game from which I am taking inspiration, I was running a +32.000/day in late 1943. I do expect to have a much lower rate in this one, however.
Please note that a key element will be the simultaneous presence of Magwe and Ledo oilfields and related refining supplies once the OIL is taken back home.

I prefer the Ki-94-II to the Ki-83. I find the latter less flexible than the first, figure out.

Never accelerated it because I have your same thoughts. I will have a try in this game; my basic reasoning has been to consider also a matter of engine consumption: the Ha-34 is in high demand because I want to reach the magic number of 500 in pool for the tojo. Producing the helens later will help me in building up this pool.


BLOCK E
- You're over-investing in the Judy line in my view. It's a great step up from the Val (especially with the 500 and later 800kg bomb), but it's not worth ten factories. The Grace is a much more deserving investment IMO.

- Potentially divisive opinion, but do you need 8 factories on the Oscar line? Or even factories on the Oscar at all? The later Oscar versions seem fairly minor improvements, and I would rather have a really transformational airframe (like the Ki84) arriving slightly earlier than essentially the starting Oscar model with two cannons instead of two machine guns...

- Ditto the Tojo, but I do wonder if you could lean more on the George to see you through till the Ki84 comes out in mass.


I agree on Judy-Grace. I have often split 50%-50% on the two and sometimes gone for the Judy only and regretting it.

I love the Oscar. I will produce (and especially lose...) it in huge numbers. The final one is a nice plane overall. Don't discount the great difference in speed and armor between the last and the first oscar.

Tojo. I always end up investing on it even if I am not fond of the plane. I think I'll switch the R&D to the Grace rather than the George. The George-I will come online before the P47s and it will be the bridge for the remaining part of '43 until I have the Frank-R. I don't think it's a big deal having the George even earlier. Provided, of course, I am able to afford the comparatively higher losses I will have.

Here a big question. I've never used the George-I, going directly for the second and then the third. Is there anything I should know about the first model? I have the sensation that's not a great plane, while the second does wonders.


BLOCK F
I agree, but I think your list of "primary" planes is a bit off. For me, the absolute key planes are:

A7M (replacement carrier fighter)
N1K George (mainline IJN land based fighter)
Ki84 (mainline IJA fighter and later kamikaze)
Peggy T (IJA anti-shipping)
PY1 Frances (IJN anti-shipping)
Jill (replacement carrier torpedo bomber)
Judy (replacement carrier dive bomber)
Grace (amazing multi-role 1E)
Ki74 Patsy (late-war IJA ersatz B-29/long range kami)
Ki83 (late war IJA sweeper)



I agree regarding the entire list, except the Patsy.
My main problem is finding a way to fit the Frances and the Grace in decent numbers in my R&D.
For the Grace the problem is somehow solved because I decided to give away with all Tojo factories.
For the Frances I don't have much in mind, except biting the bullet and changing some R&D factories after they completed their research (Judy line comes to mind for example).





Thank you very much again for the reply!

< Message edited by ITAKLinus -- 2/22/2021 4:33:28 PM >


_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 12
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/22/2021 5:52:38 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 10170
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: online
Mike Solli did an AAR a long time ago that had a lot of discussions about various things in it from the Japanese side.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 13
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/22/2021 6:33:14 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3037
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline
Some follow-on thoughts:

BLOCK A

Glad to see that industry expansion is on the table. I've been curious about putting figures to the "soft" benefits, as you describe, but just been too lazy to actually run the maths.

Sensible to wait till the DEI capture is completed before committing one way or another.

Regarding Obvert's game and late war Japan in general - resource stockpiles in and of themselves are useless without light and heavy industry to turn it into supply, and both tend to suffer from strategic bombing efforts. You've more options to "protect" supply in the late game through various tricks (manipulate stockpiles at various bases to "hide" supply in out of the way bases, load it onto ships as a floating reserve) that you don't have for the static industry devices.

BLOCK C

I think your list of key areas is missing a few key bastions, or breakwaters for Allied forces.

- Timor (essential as a breakwater against Allied moves from Northern Australia)
- Sumatra/Java (for the defence of the oil centres)
- Bases in the Biak-Manado-Mindanao triangle (to avoid Allied advances from SWPAC bypassing the Marianas).

I'm a big proponent on digging in heavily around Singapore, Surabaya, Hong Kong and Manila. Rationale is that these all make great frontline bases for the Allies thanks to their shipyards. Denying them is useful from a direct operational standpoint in forcing ships back to Pearl or the like for repairs, but also for upgrades too. Repair yards large enough for Allied capital ships are few and far between...

BLOCK D

The proliferation of forts is a double edged sword. In terms of squad to squad comparison, Allied squads will out perform Japanese squads (all else being equal of course). As the war progresses, the Allied firepower advantage grows (and this is true for the heavier devices such as artillery). Forts help offset that by some degree.

On the Ki 94 vs the Ki-83 (NB: 83, not 84!), the extra range lets the 83 do many more missions. The 94 is effectively a CAP only airframe, while the 83 can effectively act as a long range escort and sweeper, as well as CAP. The two airframes are very close in key characteristics as well.

BLOCK E

The Oscar's selling point isn't it's speed - the final (6/44) version of the Oscar has the same speed as a P-40E Warhawk. The Oscar's key advantage is the amazing MVR, especially at low altitude. I do wonder if it is worthwhile putting effort in to advance the incremental improvements when you could get something that would really be a step change early.

I share your distaste for the Tojo, mainly as I think it falls off a cliff after 1943 in a big way. I have dropped it completely from my R&D and depend on a mix of Zero, Oscar and Nick till the George and Frank can take the load.

On the George itself, I prefer the first model for the extra hex of range. You can make a good case for the second model for the service rating of 2. For me, the main consideration is that the George 1 is "good enough" and that subsequent models aren't that much of an improvement to deserve R&D (though I would take the upgrades when they arrived on their due dates without R&D'ing them).

BLOCK F

Patsy is a late arrival, but it can carry bombs out to 36 hexes. Draw a 36 hex circle around any IJ base, and consider that you can bomb the port and airbase of those bases, recon them, and fly naval search and then do naval attack/kami missions. All with the same airframe. The offensive option lets you keep the Allies honest with rear area CAP, the recon and NavS utility is nice, and even routine Allied convoys far from the front are exposed.

Ditch the Helen and half the Tojo factories for the Grace/Frances - worth noting that you will want the P1Y2 version of the Frances (the first has service rating of 2 and is very hard to use as a result).

I am looking forward to seeing your plans regarding industry and will read with interest.

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 14
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/22/2021 6:58:03 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 10170
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: online
I remember that in one game, Canoerebel had problems with the Ki-83 sweeping. That was the game where he went though the Kuriles without capturing any first, on his way to Sakhalin.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 15
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/22/2021 7:40:08 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 428
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Some follow-on thoughts:

BLOCK A

Glad to see that industry expansion is on the table. I've been curious about putting figures to the "soft" benefits, as you describe, but just been too lazy to actually run the maths.

Sensible to wait till the DEI capture is completed before committing one way or another.

Regarding Obvert's game and late war Japan in general - resource stockpiles in and of themselves are useless without light and heavy industry to turn it into supply, and both tend to suffer from strategic bombing efforts. You've more options to "protect" supply in the late game through various tricks (manipulate stockpiles at various bases to "hide" supply in out of the way bases, load it onto ships as a floating reserve) that you don't have for the static industry devices.

BLOCK C

I think your list of key areas is missing a few key bastions, or breakwaters for Allied forces.

- Timor (essential as a breakwater against Allied moves from Northern Australia)
- Sumatra/Java (for the defence of the oil centres)
- Bases in the Biak-Manado-Mindanao triangle (to avoid Allied advances from SWPAC bypassing the Marianas).

I'm a big proponent on digging in heavily around Singapore, Surabaya, Hong Kong and Manila. Rationale is that these all make great frontline bases for the Allies thanks to their shipyards. Denying them is useful from a direct operational standpoint in forcing ships back to Pearl or the like for repairs, but also for upgrades too. Repair yards large enough for Allied capital ships are few and far between...

BLOCK D

The proliferation of forts is a double edged sword. In terms of squad to squad comparison, Allied squads will out perform Japanese squads (all else being equal of course). As the war progresses, the Allied firepower advantage grows (and this is true for the heavier devices such as artillery). Forts help offset that by some degree.

On the Ki 94 vs the Ki-83 (NB: 83, not 84!), the extra range lets the 83 do many more missions. The 94 is effectively a CAP only airframe, while the 83 can effectively act as a long range escort and sweeper, as well as CAP. The two airframes are very close in key characteristics as well.

BLOCK E

The Oscar's selling point isn't it's speed - the final (6/44) version of the Oscar has the same speed as a P-40E Warhawk. The Oscar's key advantage is the amazing MVR, especially at low altitude. I do wonder if it is worthwhile putting effort in to advance the incremental improvements when you could get something that would really be a step change early.

I share your distaste for the Tojo, mainly as I think it falls off a cliff after 1943 in a big way. I have dropped it completely from my R&D and depend on a mix of Zero, Oscar and Nick till the George and Frank can take the load.

On the George itself, I prefer the first model for the extra hex of range. You can make a good case for the second model for the service rating of 2. For me, the main consideration is that the George 1 is "good enough" and that subsequent models aren't that much of an improvement to deserve R&D (though I would take the upgrades when they arrived on their due dates without R&D'ing them).

BLOCK F

Patsy is a late arrival, but it can carry bombs out to 36 hexes. Draw a 36 hex circle around any IJ base, and consider that you can bomb the port and airbase of those bases, recon them, and fly naval search and then do naval attack/kami missions. All with the same airframe. The offensive option lets you keep the Allies honest with rear area CAP, the recon and NavS utility is nice, and even routine Allied convoys far from the front are exposed.

Ditch the Helen and half the Tojo factories for the Grace/Frances - worth noting that you will want the P1Y2 version of the Frances (the first has service rating of 2 and is very hard to use as a result).

I am looking forward to seeing your plans regarding industry and will read with interest.



Thank you very much again for the complete and interesting reply.


As soon as I finish the math involved (chiefly correlated to the amount of damage I'll have in Palembang), I'll post the entire set of calculations.

You're right regarding hiding the stocks, completely forgot that's possible.


Regarding the industry expansion, my main theory is to be able to run in a relatively decent manner an empire either cut in two by a CenPac/SoPac line of advance or by a northern offensive.
Both options are, from my perspective, the most likely should I successfully attack India. It's not only a matter of geography, but also a matter of VPs: in the game in which I overran India, I had at 31/12/1943 a VP ratio of 79.657 : 23.700. I did over 43.700 VPs through "Army Loss".
In other words, he has to bomb the s@it out of Onshu if he wants to fill the gap, even with a way smaller VP ratio than the one above. A huge benefit of the LI expansion in DEI (but also Malaya and potentially China) is that they don't provide VPs. Also, being much more scattered than the ones in Onshu, targets are dispersed. It's a double edged sword, since also defense is harder on dispersed industry, but I think the gains are worth the risk.

Provided that the (in)famous 1.100 supply cost is to be taken into consideration, I still have some time to make up my mind (we're at 17th Dec now). I gave myself until 25/30 Dec to decide precisely about the industry expansion.



BLOCK C
I agree on Java, since I also develop the industry there. I'll permanently deploy there various training units and also an AirHQ at Probolinggo (now I don't have excel in front of me so I don't remember which one).

For Sumatra I already have the ENG ready to be deployed once I get the place in my hands (they're now in Johore Baru and Mersing). My plan is mostly focused on AF rather than impregnable fortresses, though.

Biak-Manado-Mindanao are relevant. Together with Palau/Babeldaob and Peleliu. I generally create a forward strong base in Nabire, which has a very healthy georgaphical position, being able to strike in Arafura Sea from its AF lvl6. Key element here is that it's safe from naval bombardment and relatively easy to resupply.
I also like Lolobato, which makes for a safe AF if you minimally develop/protect Galeia and Morotai.
Saumlaki and Selaroe are relevant bases as well.

I'm mostly concerned with an attack throguh the Arafura Sea axis, because it would create a huge salient in my positions: I would have to defend too many places since he could do whatever from there (Mindanao/Timor/Celebes/etcetc).


For Timor as a whole I am not convinced. I created a very strong position over there in my last PBEM, but I found it somewhat too much of a defense. I think I'll stick to a more conservative defense of Koepang+Dili+Lautem without creating bastions in other bases in the area.
What's problematic is the fact that, should the enemy attack from that axis of advance, there are billions of potentially good bases.




BLOCK D
I confess that probably I'm blinded by my suspicious for whatever fighter has 2 engines


BLOCK E
You are right in clarifying, I should have written that.

Yeah, the Oscar is great because of the MVR. Still, my point on speed stands: as far as I know, the higher the delta in speed and the more the MVR decreases. I am too lazy to look for Alfred's or developers' posts about that, but I think you are almost certain of a -50% if there is a delta higher than 80mph (here memory can make bad jokes, but I recall these numbers).
Now, the Oscar-IV has a nice 364mph of speed vs:
Oscar-Ic 305mph
Oscar-IIa 320mph
Oscar-IIb 341mph
Oscar-IIIa 358mph
I see a point in researching just the -IIIa since it comes very quickly (scheduled for 10/44 vs 08/45), but once you have the factories repaired and the engine bonus, it's not a big deal to go until the last model. Consider also that I do research every model on the line in order not to "waste" the initial factory, so it really makes little difference in the end.
My main logic is that I want the highest feasible speed on the Oscar so that its MVR decreases less against late-war allied planes. In my current PBEM as allied player, I am struggling hard against Japanese low-level CAPs in early/mid 44.

Another extremely relevant aspect of my Oscar-love is that it has a very good range in both missions and redeployment. If you plan to overextend in India, you'd better have long-legged planes.


Tojo: I agree on your point. My main logic is this: for the time being, Oscars et al. can be "good enough". In my last Japanese PBEM I missed completely on the topic and ended up with over 4.000 Tojo-IIc in stock (not that astonishing considering that I was running an overall production of over 4.500 a/c month in april 44) but no use for them. Their climb rate works against them in CAP. In sweep they are dead meat. Low range. Nothing to do a part from sacrifying them basically.


I'll follow your advice and experience and go for the first George then. I'll produce it and let the other ones come online as normally scheduled.


BLOCK F
I see the advantages of the Patsy. My question is: how can I do R&D on it in any meaningful manner? I have a limited amount of industries. The only thing that crosses my mind is to redirect some industries after they have done their R&D, but that's quite a big supply investment. Do you think it's worth? I've never had the occasion to have it, sadly.

For Helen/Tojo: yeah, I buy your idea. Also, given that I won't invest on the Tojo, there is no need to "save" the Ha-34 engines in order to have the bonus. I think it's way better to change them.
Frances. I think there is a typo: the first one has a SR of 4 and the second of 2. I found the SR=4 not that terrible in the end. But I wasn't using it for anything other than strikes from large AF where I could ship out eventually damaged planes. The additional speed and range seemed to amply compensate the atrocious SR.





_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 16
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/22/2021 7:42:49 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 428
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I remember that in one game, Canoerebel had problems with the Ki-83 sweeping. That was the game where he went though the Kuriles without capturing any first, on his way to Sakhalin.



Thanks, I think I missed that AAR

Now I try to locate it somewhere in between arboristic posts

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 17
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/22/2021 8:07:49 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20647
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
Lots to respond here... and you have acknowledged a lot of what I will say. First and foremost is that the game is scenario 1 and no plan survives first contact with the enemy. Stay flexible. With stacking limits taking out China should be very easy.

India is too much, most likely. Certainly, you won't be making any progress there mid 43 or later unless you cordon off Karachi by taking Socotra in very early 42 or even 41. Allied superiority in TOE is just too great. Landing there very early though is key...but will Allies cooperate? That doesn't mean don't go for it...if yo can grab supplies and fuel there and perhaps put the nail in China all the sooner to boot.

You can't deplete the Commonwealth or Australian forces enough. Most are restricted, and if you go fight them where they are restricted you are simply giving the Allies political point freedom to spend elsewhere. The enemy is always the USN, Marines and US Army....they are almost always only three invasions away from bombing Honshu.

The decisive battle in the Pacific theory is flawed in this game. You can crush all five starting Yankee Carriers and still lose....and you can win without a decisive CV clash in 1943. Allied production is simply insane...

The Allies will most likely be in position to bomb Honshu in very early 1944 and maybe sooner. Constant meat grinder warfare in India will drain you of supplies, and fuel...unless you take and hold the industrial bastions well past Calcutta.

Sending troops to India is not a complex situation for the Allies. You will have to figure out how to pocket and destroy those troops...which is by far more difficult than destroying them on a one island hex with no retreat.

I have never expanded armaments, and I never turn them off. Generally, I convert one of them to vehicles though. Naval shipyard expansion is very interesting to me...but you need to account for it somehow. Always increase vehicles asap.

In 1943 plan on losing 3K to 3.5K Franks and or Georges countering the P47. If you are fighting with A6M5 something, Tojo and Oscar plan on losing twice that at least or ceding all air operations within Jugs ranges. Mr. Kane got the Ki94 in late 1944, and was a bit disappointed in its performance....but you do need a late war fighter.

You will have a tough time countering the P38 in 1942.

You will have a narrow window, in 1944 sometime, where the Sam might make a CV clash very winnable.

Of course the greatest variable is understanding the Allies and watching how they evolve....the great unknown. Also, every game the initiative at some point swings...usually in 1943. With 4 George, and 7 Frank, I fear you might not have the fighters early enough to keep the initiative...

Good luck, you have a plan and a purpose!

PS: I have played a game where Japan was starved for resources...and I shipped heavily from Nauru.

PPS: Depending upon HR, you definitely need to address the night fighters. Only 21 Sentai can go NF, and some of the best get withdrawn.

PPS: Well done on sinking a CV!






< Message edited by Lowpe -- 2/22/2021 8:12:02 PM >

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 18
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/22/2021 9:24:25 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 10170
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: online
Canoerebel
quote:

Erik likes to use the KI-83 to sweep, the preferred role that you gents alerted me to when it first showed up. This sweep gets the best of my guys and opens the shipping to enemy strikes.


http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4529779

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 19
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/22/2021 11:14:07 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20647
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Canoerebel
quote:

Erik likes to use the KI-83 to sweep, the preferred role that you gents alerted me to when it first showed up. This sweep gets the best of my guys and opens the shipping to enemy strikes.


http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4529779


Japan's best endgame sweeper I think...Jets might be better, but are hamstrung by range.


< Message edited by Lowpe -- 2/22/2021 11:22:03 PM >

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 20
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/23/2021 9:37:14 AM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 428
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Canoerebel
quote:

Erik likes to use the KI-83 to sweep, the preferred role that you gents alerted me to when it first showed up. This sweep gets the best of my guys and opens the shipping to enemy strikes.


http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4529779



Thanks!

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 21
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/23/2021 10:56:57 AM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 428
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Lots to respond here... and you have acknowledged a lot of what I will say. First and foremost is that the game is scenario 1 and no plan survives first contact with the enemy. Stay flexible. With stacking limits taking out China should be very easy.

India is too much, most likely. Certainly, you won't be making any progress there mid 43 or later unless you cordon off Karachi by taking Socotra in very early 42 or even 41. Allied superiority in TOE is just too great. Landing there very early though is key...but will Allies cooperate? That doesn't mean don't go for it...if yo can grab supplies and fuel there and perhaps put the nail in China all the sooner to boot.

You can't deplete the Commonwealth or Australian forces enough. Most are restricted, and if you go fight them where they are restricted you are simply giving the Allies political point freedom to spend elsewhere. The enemy is always the USN, Marines and US Army....they are almost always only three invasions away from bombing Honshu.

The decisive battle in the Pacific theory is flawed in this game. You can crush all five starting Yankee Carriers and still lose....and you can win without a decisive CV clash in 1943. Allied production is simply insane...

The Allies will most likely be in position to bomb Honshu in very early 1944 and maybe sooner. Constant meat grinder warfare in India will drain you of supplies, and fuel...unless you take and hold the industrial bastions well past Calcutta.

Sending troops to India is not a complex situation for the Allies. You will have to figure out how to pocket and destroy those troops...which is by far more difficult than destroying them on a one island hex with no retreat.

I have never expanded armaments, and I never turn them off. Generally, I convert one of them to vehicles though. Naval shipyard expansion is very interesting to me...but you need to account for it somehow. Always increase vehicles asap.

In 1943 plan on losing 3K to 3.5K Franks and or Georges countering the P47. If you are fighting with A6M5 something, Tojo and Oscar plan on losing twice that at least or ceding all air operations within Jugs ranges. Mr. Kane got the Ki94 in late 1944, and was a bit disappointed in its performance....but you do need a late war fighter.

You will have a tough time countering the P38 in 1942.

You will have a narrow window, in 1944 sometime, where the Sam might make a CV clash very winnable.

Of course the greatest variable is understanding the Allies and watching how they evolve....the great unknown. Also, every game the initiative at some point swings...usually in 1943. With 4 George, and 7 Frank, I fear you might not have the fighters early enough to keep the initiative...

Good luck, you have a plan and a purpose!

PS: I have played a game where Japan was starved for resources...and I shipped heavily from Nauru.

PPS: Depending upon HR, you definitely need to address the night fighters. Only 21 Sentai can go NF, and some of the best get withdrawn.

PPS: Well done on sinking a CV!




Thanks for the message and for the relevant insights.


Yeah, flexibility is a must. I have a general grand strategy and that's it, nothing more, nothing less.

From my perspective, India can be entirely conquered. My biggest asset in this game is the fact that I already conquered the entire place in a Scen01 and I do believe that experience with the theater plays a huge role in defending/attacking it.
Admittedly, I've been lucky in that PBEM, but sometimes luck is all you need to accomplish something great.

Depleting Commonwealth/Australian forces is relatively impossible if they do flee. If they make a stand, it's highly probable that they are depleted.

The PBEM in which I got India ended in April '44. Then I restarted it from 01/01/1944 but playing the allied side with a new opponent substituting me as the Emperor. Commonwealth pools are just... Done for good. Basically impossible to put together a meaningful force.
Now, I don't say that's easy to accomplish or that I will for sure do such a damage in this game, but my general aim is to deplete them as much as I can.


I have somewhat badly explained my "decisive battle theory". My logic is this: I cannot really force the US to fight anywhere if they don't want to. Still, they will push at certain point. And here the "decisive battle theory" kicks in: I want to do a relatively short-lived campaign in which I throw everything at the enemy, hoping to damage him enough to slow down the inevitable. That's mostly why I want to smash India and China: more assets to be thrown in the key campaign.

Clearly, this theory is flawed in case the opponent is smart enough to ditch any project of deep invasion and decides for grinding his way to Onshu. In the aforementioned match, I simply started grinding from the Salomons, playing in 1944 a 1942 campaign. High tempo is the key and so far I have been quite successful (we're now in late April 1944).




My calculations can be wrong but I have counted a minimum of 8 weeks for the first US reinforcements in India. More likely 10-12 weeks if we take into account a realistic situation.
Pocketing them is a complex task, but can be done. It depends on how the opponent plays and reacts. Also, it strongly depends on how seriously he does take my initial move on India.



Regarding the initiative: you're right, but what can I do? Clearly, adding more George/Frank factories into the equation is a good solution. My understanding is that I will leave the initiative in the Pacific from January '42 and keep it in India/China.
Bottom line is this: if I can prevent a move into DEI from Perth axis of advance, I am relatively safe in the Pacific until I keep the KB there in a central position and I have some strategic reserves available.
My industrial planning is tailored to carrier superiority. Without going too much into detail, I have planned to have the trio Judy/A6M5/Jill for when Hellcats arrive and to mantain a carrier numerical superiority (CV+CVL vs CV+CVL, so no CVE taken into account) well into '44. CVEs are one of the most relevant assets the allies have, but I am quite prone to think they don't play such a big role in '43. 1944 is another beast, but I can't do much about that. My big investment on the Sam is basically an attempt to compensate a little bit the massive CVE presence in early '44.
Again, there isn't much I can do. Hell, I've even decided to produce the cr@ppy Shinano.


PS. Thanks for the info about Nauru.

PPS. Yeah, I read "NF" as "Nightmare Fighter". Is there any general consensus on which NF should researched and produced? I think I've always messed up with them.

PPPS. Thanks again! Luck has been on my side




------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So far we're still in the early game. I'll post a summary after the next turn, when Singapore should fall (unless 77AV can resist over 1.800AV...). I've just played the 19th Dec turn.
I won't post many combat reports, since I think they somehow hamper the reading. Also, and especially, I prefer just writing what happens around the map.

With the fall of Singapore and the pocketing of the whole commonwealth army in Malaya, it looks like I will be able to keep my original schedule of a mid-January landing in India.

In the PBEM in which I conquered it, I have messed up immensely many things (it was my second PBEM): I hope to have learned the lessons.

The plan itself is fairly simple.
A very generalistic and broad description: landing in Diamond Harbor with 4 divisions which will seal Calcutta. I cannot really prevent the enemy from redeploying in the city, but I can hope to encircle it.
I'll keep a blocking force in Calcutta itself, while the rest of the army moves toward Jessore and Asansol. Jamshedpur-Howrath area is crucial to the allied player if he wants to keep a LOC with Calcutta. If he does so, the better. I'll try to fragment and destroy his forces there and cut the LOC.
I do not plan an attack on Calcutta. Probably, I won't have the forces to do so. If instead I can grab it somehow, I'll change my plans and go for it directly.
Many tanks will be present in the first wave. They have a very simple task: running everywhere far behind the enemy lines. The idea is to cut railways, spread the panic and gain railway terminals far away from the Calcutta area.
Patna, Darjeeling, Ranchi, Benares and eventually even Raipur are the initial targets.

After the initial wave, a second wave of 4 divisions is scheduled to arrive a little bit later (anything between 3 and 4 days later). These divisions will seal the fate of the Jamshedpur-Howrath line and the troops there.
Cocanda and Vizagapatnam will be invested as well by a small force. Its aim is to reach Bezwada. Bezwada is a key base since it gives a very good position to threaten both Madras and Hyderabad. Also, it potentially opens the road toward Bellary and Goa, sealing India's tip (not that it would matter much).
Logic behind this move is to dilute enemy's defences a little bit in case he decides to defend Madras and Hyderabad or to oblige him to leave me one of the two. From Calcutta area, troops can be sent via railway without major delays. There is the horrible Cuttack, which needs to be taken and is not on the sea, but I am confident that a mix of extremely heavy air bombardments and paras can do the trick. Hope so.


The third wave is scheduled to arrive much later, roughly in mid-februrary. There are various reasons for this. A) lack of sealift (I can have it, but I don't want to reduce the allocation of ships to other operations such as Java); B) I cannot tell yet what's going to be the allied answer to my move.
Basically, I want to keep the 3rd wave as an exploitation force. F.ex., grabbing Madras with the forces landed at Cocanda and friend, is impossible. But if the enemy decides not to defend it, I can grab it bringing 4 divisions in the area.
Most likely, I will land the forces in either Cocanda&co area or in Diamond Habor.
There is also the not-so-dumb-as-it-looks-like option: a landing on Surat, but I'd really have to organise it properly in terms of ships and, especially, cover force.


Keeping the naval traffic in the Bengala Gulf at the bare minimum is the key. I don't want to have a stream of ships going back and forth in the area, so most of the support units will be landed together with the 1st or 2nd waves.
I'll have to be careful with tanks, since in the "Indian PBEM" I had a production of 300 and they still weren't enough. On the flip side, allied pools are very thin.

I still have to decide about the naval cover force. I think the first wave will be with a very little air cover force and I'll employ the KB for the second. Seems mad, but surprise is on my side. I expect a reaction to the second wave, especially if the allied player sees that my air cover is not that great. That's when I'll employ KB, which will initially open the dances with a strike on Celyon. I have to grab Oosthaven in order to make it pass trhough the strait, though. Once I've sailed past Oosthaven to the WEST, I hope to get off the radars, refuel and strike Colombo.
I don't imagine I'll find anything meaningful in the place, but hopefully it will bring into the area the few air assets the brits have. In any case, it will clarify the enemy that Colombo is and should remain offlimit for ships.


Final considerations are devoted to a couple of operations I'll do in the meanwhile: Java and Darwin. Darwin will be plastered by BBs and that's it. Java will happen roughly at the same time as the assault on India. Not too many troops are available, but my reasoning is that I mostly want to establish a solid foothold on the island and conquer it as soon as reinforcements are available. Landing is the complex task, rather than bringing reinforcements. I just conquered Makassar, so I have a decent AF from which start to put some pressure on the place. The guys who will go in Sumatra will take care of the northern part.
The Pacific (including Wake and PM) is already in my hands and I do not plan to expand further. I'll take Horn Island at certain point, but I really cannot tell when I'll have the forces to do so; in line of principle I have troops available now, but my air presence is weak: Kaga + 2xCVL + 1xCS. A big TF with CAs, BBs and DDs has been attacked by a sub EAST of Fiji, so I suspect the opponent is bringing his naval assets from PH to SoPac in order to put pressure on my deployment.
KB is in sight in front of Makassar, so there is a window opportunity for him to strike (provided he has bought the 2 remaining CVs). I have around 100Eng in Rabaul and I hope to have it AF lvl4 soon. AirHQ and fancy Betty/Nell will arrive. Toghether with my little naval force, they should be more than enough to counter the threat of the 2 US carriers.

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 22
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/23/2021 4:13:27 PM   
Bif1961


Posts: 1970
Joined: 6/26/2008
From: Phenix City, Alabama
Status: offline
Good luck with your contest, it sounds like you have great respect for your opponent and that is the way it should be. The Sara was a torpedo magnet but not 3 at once, so you are off to a good start vis-a-vis early war carrier strength.

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 23
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/23/2021 5:20:36 PM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9660
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Status: offline
Francesco, Salve!

So, you have a plan. Any plan is better than no plan, so you have a great first step.

As Lowpe suggests, be prepared to augment/adjust the plan as your contact with your opponent moves along.

I am also a strong advocate of fighter RnD; given the lack of LCU firepower compared to the allies that increases as the war progresses, once the allies are able to wrest control of the air, they will own the initiative. Delaying that control can be a key part of an IJ victory and that is only done with fighters. This is not to suggest that you don't build other aircraft, but that your RnD focus should be on fighters, key fighters that can dominate for a decent length of time. Finally, you need to decide if you will go for final fighter, and if so which one(s) (Ki-94, Ki-83, J7W are the choices)

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to Bif1961)
Post #: 24
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/23/2021 8:11:15 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3037
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline
Going to cherry pick a few quotes to comment on from recent discussions:

quote:

Biak-Manado-Mindanao are relevant. Together with Palau/Babeldaob and Peleliu. I generally create a forward strong base in Nabire, which has a very healthy georgaphical position, being able to strike in Arafura Sea from its AF lvl6. Key element here is that it's safe from naval bombardment and relatively easy to resupply.
I also like Lolobato, which makes for a safe AF if you minimally develop/protect Galeia and Morotai.
Saumlaki and Selaroe are relevant bases as well.

I'm mostly concerned with an attack throguh the Arafura Sea axis, because it would create a huge salient in my positions: I would have to defend too many places since he could do whatever from there (Mindanao/Timor/Celebes/etcetc).



An alternative proposition is to strongly develop Buna and Hansa Bay to level 9. With some supporting airbases, they can interdict the Torres Strait.

quote:

Yeah, the Oscar is great because of the MVR. Still, my point on speed stands: as far as I know, the higher the delta in speed and the more the MVR decreases. I am too lazy to look for Alfred's or developers' posts about that, but I think you are almost certain of a -50% if there is a delta higher than 80mph (here memory can make bad jokes, but I recall these numbers).


Not quite - http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4036178 (post 16)

quote:

I see the advantages of the Patsy. My question is: how can I do R&D on it in any meaningful manner? I have a limited amount of industries. The only thing that crosses my mind is to redirect some industries after they have done their R&D, but that's quite a big supply investment. Do you think it's worth? I've never had the occasion to have it, sadly.


You would need to plan from the start IMO to make the most use out of it.

I've never had the chance to use it in a grand campaign either, but I do see its potential in a number of areas thanks to its long range.

For me, the selling point is that massive 36 hex range. That's a lot of ports and airbases (inc. B-29 bases!) that you can hit from the (comparative) safety of the Japanese home islands. I also think they have an interesting application as kamikazes - the range would let them be staged far behind the frontline to supplement shorter range kamikaze aircraft.

quote:

Frances. I think there is a typo: the first one has a SR of 4 and the second of 2. I found the SR=4 not that terrible in the end. But I wasn't using it for anything other than strikes from large AF where I could ship out eventually damaged planes. The additional speed and range seemed to amply compensate the atrocious SR.


I think for regular operations, SR4 is too high and the speed/range difference is fairly mild to make it worthwhile. I am comfortable with fairly high SR for defensive planes, but less so for offensive planes (and the Frances is absolutely one of those.

A more minor consideration is that the P1Y2 gets radar, which is attractive for night-time anti-shipping operations.

quote:

Depleting Commonwealth/Australian forces is relatively impossible if they do flee. If they make a stand, it's highly probable that they are depleted.


Diligent Allied play can mitigate large losses through careful control of devices. In a pinch, units in Australia and New Zealand can be disbanded to provide tanks and artillery for Indian units.

quote:

A very generalistic and broad description: landing in Diamond Harbor with 4 divisions which will seal Calcutta. I cannot really prevent the enemy from redeploying in the city, but I can hope to encircle it.


I think going for Calcutta initially is a mistake - your second wave operation is a much more appealing prospect.

A landing at Cocanda and Vizagapatnam, with a rapid paradrop at Bezwada will give you a position to advance in virtually any direction in India and force the Allies onto the back foot. Calcutta and Madras can be cleared out later (and may even be abandoned if the Allied player loses his nerve at a large IJA force pushing towards Karachi from Central India.

quote:

Final considerations are devoted to a couple of operations I'll do in the meanwhile: Java and Darwin. Darwin will be plastered by BBs and that's it.


It's fine to leave Darwin, but I would absolutely detach a small force to capture the rest of the Northern Australian coastal bases - they're nifty floatplane bases and worth denying to the Allies if possible.

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 25
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/24/2021 3:23:00 AM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 428
Joined: 2/22/2018
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

Good luck with your contest, it sounds like you have great respect for your opponent and that is the way it should be. The Sara was a torpedo magnet but not 3 at once, so you are off to a good start vis-a-vis early war carrier strength.

Thanks!

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to Bif1961)
Post #: 26
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/24/2021 3:25:57 AM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 428
Joined: 2/22/2018
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Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Francesco, Salve!

So, you have a plan. Any plan is better than no plan, so you have a great first step.

As Lowpe suggests, be prepared to augment/adjust the plan as your contact with your opponent moves along.

I am also a strong advocate of fighter RnD; given the lack of LCU firepower compared to the allies that increases as the war progresses, once the allies are able to wrest control of the air, they will own the initiative. Delaying that control can be a key part of an IJ victory and that is only done with fighters. This is not to suggest that you don't build other aircraft, but that your RnD focus should be on fighters, key fighters that can dominate for a decent length of time. Finally, you need to decide if you will go for final fighter, and if so which one(s) (Ki-94, Ki-83, J7W are the choices)


Yeah, I'm a strong proponend of a fighter-focused R&D. Since the marginal gain for additional factories sharply declines, I have very few heavy investments (A7M2 and Ki94II). Could (and probably should) have invested more on the George and Frank, but I think I can deal with their relatively late arrival.





_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 27
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/24/2021 3:56:41 AM   
ITAKLinus

 

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From: Italy
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Answers in red:
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Going to cherry pick a few quotes to comment on from recent discussions:

quote:

Biak-Manado-Mindanao are relevant. Together with Palau/Babeldaob and Peleliu. I generally create a forward strong base in Nabire, which has a very healthy georgaphical position, being able to strike in Arafura Sea from its AF lvl6. Key element here is that it's safe from naval bombardment and relatively easy to resupply.
I also like Lolobato, which makes for a safe AF if you minimally develop/protect Galeia and Morotai.
Saumlaki and Selaroe are relevant bases as well.

I'm mostly concerned with an attack throguh the Arafura Sea axis, because it would create a huge salient in my positions: I would have to defend too many places since he could do whatever from there (Mindanao/Timor/Celebes/etcetc).



An alternative proposition is to strongly develop Buna and Hansa Bay to level 9. With some supporting airbases, they can interdict the Torres Strait.


My plan is to place the 3rd AirDivHQ in Nadzab, which should cover indeed both Buna and Hansa Bay. Nadzab itself is well suited to be a good AF if I can keep the Vitiaz Strait mine long enoguh to supply it through Saidor. The fact that it's inland is a major plus from my perspective.


quote:

Yeah, the Oscar is great because of the MVR. Still, my point on speed stands: as far as I know, the higher the delta in speed and the more the MVR decreases. I am too lazy to look for Alfred's or developers' posts about that, but I think you are almost certain of a -50% if there is a delta higher than 80mph (here memory can make bad jokes, but I recall these numbers).


Not quite - http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4036178 (post 16)

quote:

I see the advantages of the Patsy. My question is: how can I do R&D on it in any meaningful manner? I have a limited amount of industries. The only thing that crosses my mind is to redirect some industries after they have done their R&D, but that's quite a big supply investment. Do you think it's worth? I've never had the occasion to have it, sadly.


You would need to plan from the start IMO to make the most use out of it.

I've never had the chance to use it in a grand campaign either, but I do see its potential in a number of areas thanks to its long range.

For me, the selling point is that massive 36 hex range. That's a lot of ports and airbases (inc. B-29 bases!) that you can hit from the (comparative) safety of the Japanese home islands. I also think they have an interesting application as kamikazes - the range would let them be staged far behind the frontline to supplement shorter range kamikaze aircraft.

Ouch, you're completely right about the mph delta! And think that I quoted that precise post no longer than 3 weeks ago for another AAR... I guess I'm getting old

I see the advantages of the Patsy, but I still don't buy it. Great plane, yeah, but at what cost? And to do what? Any reasonable allied player would have his B29 major AFs covered with both FlaK and old/training/R&R fighters.
The 2x100Kg payload means basically nothing. The 2x250Kg at 29hex is just the same as the Nell with 3 more hexes. Even on otrageously overstacked AFs with little FlaK and no air cover, I've always done very little damage with Lilies (which do carry the same payload in extended) if not massed. And then, producing great quantities of Patsies, plus equipping many squadrons, is not really something I would be confortable with.
Don't get me wrong, I do agree with your analysis, but I'm simply not convinced in heavily investing over the Patsy in terms of R&D. I think the Nells will do basically the same, just much worse but with a better overal industrial price.
Also, there is another cost-opportunity related to it: I do welcome more Peggy(T)s and Lilies DB, rather than producing less of them in exchange of the Patsy.



quote:

Frances. I think there is a typo: the first one has a SR of 4 and the second of 2. I found the SR=4 not that terrible in the end. But I wasn't using it for anything other than strikes from large AF where I could ship out eventually damaged planes. The additional speed and range seemed to amply compensate the atrocious SR.


I think for regular operations, SR4 is too high and the speed/range difference is fairly mild to make it worthwhile. I am comfortable with fairly high SR for defensive planes, but less so for offensive planes (and the Frances is absolutely one of those.

A more minor consideration is that the P1Y2 gets radar, which is attractive for night-time anti-shipping operations.

Roger.
On a side note: have you ever had any meaningful success in night anti-shipping operations? As Japanese, I've never had any, sadly.


quote:

Depleting Commonwealth/Australian forces is relatively impossible if they do flee. If they make a stand, it's highly probable that they are depleted.


Diligent Allied play can mitigate large losses through careful control of devices. In a pinch, units in Australia and New Zealand can be disbanded to provide tanks and artillery for Indian units.

quote:

A very generalistic and broad description: landing in Diamond Harbor with 4 divisions which will seal Calcutta. I cannot really prevent the enemy from redeploying in the city, but I can hope to encircle it.


I think going for Calcutta initially is a mistake - your second wave operation is a much more appealing prospect.

A landing at Cocanda and Vizagapatnam, with a rapid paradrop at Bezwada will give you a position to advance in virtually any direction in India and force the Allies onto the back foot. Calcutta and Madras can be cleared out later (and may even be abandoned if the Allied player loses his nerve at a large IJA force pushing towards Karachi from Central India.


I see your point, but I don't think the allied player can lose his nerves so much. I think he could, should I run for Bombay, but not for Karachi. He knows he gets a good amount of decent ground reinforcements and especially SpitVIIIs. He would welcome a move toward Karachi. So, it's a threat with an unloaded gun from my perspective.

Now, I do not plan to get Calcutta. I plan to encircle and bypass it. The two landings are basically equivalent. There is a big plus in Diamond Harbor for the very reason that it solicits an answer from the Allied player, who can somehow decide to commit his forces in the defence of Calcutta. I would welcome that. I suspect that a landing in Cocanda as first assault would instead make him withdraw and reorganise rather than sending everyone to the frontline. The timing of the second landing might very well be changed precisely for this reason (and it will depend on how he does respond): if he embarks troops on trains and rushes them to the frontline, I want them to arrive in Calcutta area and unload from trains. It might take more than a week.
Basically, I agree with you that the Cocanda et al. landing is the main one, but I see the first landing as a feint, with the added benefit of trapping the Burmese defenders.



quote:

Final considerations are devoted to a couple of operations I'll do in the meanwhile: Java and Darwin. Darwin will be plastered by BBs and that's it.


It's fine to leave Darwin, but I would absolutely detach a small force to capture the rest of the Northern Australian coastal bases - they're nifty floatplane bases and worth denying to the Allies if possible.



Absolutely right. I will check ASAP what can I send there. Not much, but I'll find some "volunteer".

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 28
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/24/2021 9:22:37 AM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3037
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline
quote:

Ouch, you're completely right about the mph delta! And think that I quoted that precise post no longer than 3 weeks ago for another AAR... I guess I'm getting old

I see the advantages of the Patsy, but I still don't buy it. Great plane, yeah, but at what cost? And to do what? Any reasonable allied player would have his B29 major AFs covered with both FlaK and old/training/R&R fighters.
The 2x100Kg payload means basically nothing. The 2x250Kg at 29hex is just the same as the Nell with 3 more hexes. Even on otrageously overstacked AFs with little FlaK and no air cover, I've always done very little damage with Lilies (which do carry the same payload in extended) if not massed. And then, producing great quantities of Patsies, plus equipping many squadrons, is not really something I would be confortable with.
Don't get me wrong, I do agree with your analysis, but I'm simply not convinced in heavily investing over the Patsy in terms of R&D. I think the Nells will do basically the same, just much worse but with a better overal industrial price.
Also, there is another cost-opportunity related to it: I do welcome more Peggy(T)s and Lilies DB, rather than producing less of them in exchange of the Patsy.


Any Allied airframes performing rear-area CAP are airframes not performing frontline CAP. The Patsy is a lever to keep the Allied player on his toes (and harvest easy VP's for you if not). The other aspect is encouraging "click fatigue" that sets in with any game of AE that reaches the late-war. Ideally, you want to maximise the effort the Allied player has to put into "routine" operations to increase the chance of unforced errors elsewhere.

It's not just airbase attacks either, but port bombing and anti-shipping too. A bunch of ships disbanded in port, or a xAK convoy too close to the front won't be concerned if the holes in their ships are 100kg or 250kg.

It has similarities with the Nell, but it's IJA - a larger number of squadrons to convert, and adds a lot of capability to the masses of IJA bomber pilots that you will have in the reserve when the airframe arrives.

The problem with using Nells instead is that your IJN pilot pool is too pressured to train enough pilots with sufficient skills. The GrnB/NavB/NavT skillset is under a lot of pressure from IJN carrier squadrons, IJN land-based single-engine squadrons and IJN land-based twin-engine squadrons. The Nell is also outrageously slow. The Patsy being an IJA airframe gives you more flexibility, and it's easier to train GrdB/NavB (LowNav may be better to double as kamis though...) in bulk.

It's an airframe which, if you can get it en masse, can really cause the Allies headaches.

quote:

Roger.
On a side note: have you ever had any meaningful success in night anti-shipping operations? As Japanese, I've never had any, sadly.


Nope, but the primary purpose of night raids is to waste the AA ammo of Allied task forces. An Allied task force without any ammo for the 5 inch guns (or better yet the 40's) has notably less bite. Also feeds in to my point above about click fatigue.


(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 29
RE: WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A) - 2/24/2021 1:16:44 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 428
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
A brief update about the general situation.

I've played this morning turn 23/12/1941.

22 - DECEMBER - 1941

CHINA THEATER


Here everything goes more or lees smoothly. I defended Ichang, which has not been invested (due to heavy bombing runs over his troops since day-1?).
I lost Sinyang due to a dumb setting, but it's not a problem getting it back.

My move is quite obviously an encirclement of the Loyang area and a subsequent push toward Sian if anyhow possible.

The theater itself is quite stagnating currently. I've been very busing shuffling garrisons around.


DEI

I've landed on Mersing on 7th Dec and I I conquered Singapore on the 20th Dec. I've lost very few man in terms of disablements and destroyed squads. Currently, there are over 2.000AV in Singer itself and more incoming.

They will rest few turns and then move against India. The Allied LCUs north of Singers are 350AV trapped Malaya Army guys. They'll all die there soon.

Palembang has a good amount of LCUs as far as I can tell. He has been diligent in airlifting the units in Singapore.
I am keeping the AF damaged but I cannot really close it, due to the lack of suitable AFs. Currently, I have Singers (AirSupp arrives tomorrow and almost fully repaired) lvl6 + Johore Baru (almost fully repaired and operational) lvl4 and Mersing, which I developed from 0 to 4 in few days. Kuantan is gonna be attacked tomorrow and should provide another lvl4 AF in range of Palembang.

Very limited naval traffic in the area. He has fled with everything long ago, only few short-legged auxiliaries remain.

KB is not visible in the image, but you can guess where she is: the red icon at the bottom corner S-E of Kendari. I have covered a big SCTF doing a fast transport to Makassar, where the Xenxen has decided to send a good amount of reinforcements. They died in the thousands and I got the base at the first shock attack. Fighter sweeps from there have cleaned the few dutch planes still around in CAP.
Kendari herself and other bases where hosting all the Dutch bomber force and I plastered them with KB and CA bombardment. Also a couple of BBs did their duty (I have my only AKE in Babeldaob).
Now I have the invasion forces for Kendari and Ambon arriving in a couple of days and I am confident they'll fall soon.

The CA Maya got a torpedo from a dutch sub but she should make it without any issue a part from the very low speed (18knts). On 8th Dec I met some allied surface forces and I think I sunk the Boise. For sure the CA Houston went down like a stone.
I lost a DD in return. And the CL Oi, hit by a single bomb which made it explode in 1.000.000 pieces.

My initial idea of landing in southern Java and then trapping Soerabaja has failed miserably. Xen has concentrated everything on the northern tip ages ago.


I do plan to secure Palembang very soon. My aim is to land in Diamond Harbour on 15th January, so I want to load my troops on the 5th of January. The trip itself should be much shorter but: A) I have to load the troops; B) I will do a refuel somewhere; C) I will embark a big amount of support units, which won't be able to provide air support.

My idea is to start bombing Palembang with dozens of 2Es from Singapore&co. I wonder, though, whether it's safer to land in Oosthafen and encircle Palembang occupying Djambi, the three hexes between it and PPraboemoloeh and the 3 hexes between this one and Oosthafen. Without any supply path, the defenders should just surrender.
I'd land inside Palembang at that point.
I have the troops (and fragments of them) to spare and time (2 weeks), so it's not an issue.



Last but not least from the area, I screwed up the landings in Christmas Island IO and Cocos Island. I decided not to go and instead send reinforcements to Makassar, where our Dutch friends where transporting mnay troops (god knows why).








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_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 30
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