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How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/19/2021 10:03:29 PM   
baloo7777


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First, I seem to be very unlucky in this PBEM game, or at least in my PBEM experiences, so that is not something I can do anything about, and I have won 2 of 4 PBEM games so I must have better luck at times.
However, what exactly is going on under the hood in the advancements? I present two screenshots as evidence of crazy percentages and unrealistic advancement. Shouldn't a player be able to plan somewhat for future offenses with some reasonable certainty of the TO&E his army will go to war with? In no way would Germany have gone to war with France/England with 1939 Close support planes as the Luftwaffe is already far from the air superiority force that it enjoyed over France in 1940 and the destruction of the Soviet Air force on the ground in 1941.
On the 2nd May turn 1940 my fighters got 41 tech. My close support air just got its 1940 tech in June 1940, and my heavy armor is still 1939 tech (last turn it was 14 days, this turn it is 6 days from change)?!? WTH... I have maxed Assault, Heavy Armor, Interdiction, Close Support, and Subs since the beginning, checking every turn to see if I could add 1 level. The only good thing was I got to 1941 Sub tech 2 turns ago (and paused it, while I upgrade my 4 subs, while fighting in France). Unfortunately, my BOA has been awful, with my subs taking heavy casualties almost every turn of 1939 and 1940 (bad luck I suppose).
Here is my point... if you have bad rolls in weather (no cold turns in March/April '40), have awful losses in the early BOA years to the UBoat Fleet (having to consider abandoning before War in the East), AND not have any luck in researching advancements... you probably should lose the war...but this is PBEM and it is a bit too early to throw in the towel.
We have a table that shows weather probabilities in each zone. Is it possible to have a probability table for Advancements for each country, preferably by year researched in.
(Screen shot of June 1940 advancement for German Close Support):






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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/19/2021 10:06:02 PM   
baloo7777


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(2nd screenshot of present advancement research for Germans):
note that Assault, Heavy Armor, Interdiction, Close Support are all maxed out and have been since start of PBEM game:






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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/19/2021 10:54:39 PM   
AlvaroSousa


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Beta manuals that have the weather chart tanles
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1SHuPARd9_u02hHtmGdEspTInAabbtD0-/view?usp=sharing

OR go the manuals section in the game directory

As for the tech yea there is luck. It's part of the game. Combat also affects tech if I remember putting it in.



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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/20/2021 12:07:27 AM   
canuckgamer

 

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It is December 39 and all my UK fighters are still 1939 interceptors even though the tech level has been at 1940 interceptors for some time. This turn I unclicked the priority for all the UK units except for one fighter and the armour in North Africa. I am assuming that this should increase the probability of the one fighter advancing to 1940 interceptor. I have 40 PP on repair/upgrade. If the one fighter doesn't advance to the 1940 level soon I would say there is way too much luck in advancements. I prefer something between how it works now and how it works in SC WIE.

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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/20/2021 12:59:55 AM   
ago1000


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quote:

ORIGINAL: canuckgamer

It is December 39 and all my UK fighters are still 1939 interceptors even though the tech level has been at 1940 interceptors for some time. This turn I unclicked the priority for all the UK units except for one fighter and the armour in North Africa. I am assuming that this should increase the probability of the one fighter advancing to 1940 interceptor. I have 40 PP on repair/upgrade. If the one fighter doesn't advance to the 1940 level soon I would say there is way too much luck in advancements. I prefer something between how it works now and how it works in SC WIE.

+1 on priority technique.
Note if the unit is damaged, reinforcements are given before upgrading the unit. Have enough PP for both.

< Message edited by ago1000 -- 1/20/2021 1:00:39 AM >


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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/20/2021 1:01:16 AM   
Nirosi

 

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Hum... as far as unit advancement go, my experience was that if it was its turn (priority), was full strength and PPs were available, it did it 100% of the time the next turn. Maybe your PP go to another unit in priority? Any ship or land in priority would go before.

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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/20/2021 1:33:30 AM   
baloo7777


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quote:

ORIGINAL: AlvaroSousa

quote:

As for the tech yea there is luck. It's part of the game. Combat also affects tech if I remember putting it in.


I agree there is quite a wild swing in tech advancement, as witnessed in my other current PBEM game (screenshot). My feeling is it should be a little less wild for the German forces of 1940. I have the weather charts, etc. I was asking if it was possible to have some idea of the advancement tech tree for each country by year in which research is being done? Is each country's advancement percentages different by year? Is it possible for the Allies of 1940 to have better tech advancement (hence troops, planes, tanks) than the Germans?






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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/20/2021 2:47:37 AM   
canuckgamer

 

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Thanks for the replies guys. All I do is click on the reinforcement/upgrade green cross and assume it is based on luck after that. When you guys refer to priority I assume you are talking about the priority order for reinforcement/upgrade of Naval - Land - Air. Taking Russia as an example, they could only click the green cross on land and air units to insure they are prioritized.


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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/20/2021 3:03:52 PM   
AlvaroSousa


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Look in the rules. There is a priority chart for units. For example units in the front lines get PPs send to them over other units away from front lines. Priority units gets PPs first before non-priority units in the same order.

The game is supposed to have you making choices and it's good you are saying ... I never have enough... That's the idea you NEVER do!!! That is real war. No one ever had enough. You need to plan strategically and operationally.

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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/20/2021 3:16:32 PM   
baloo7777


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Back to my original point... to me, there is too much involved in the dice rolls for equipping the German Wehrmacht at the beginning of the war (1939-1940). The whole point of Germany's starting WW2 was that they surprised the Allies by outclassing them in Tactics and Equipment, even surprising themselves. That they let the Allies pass them in tech afterward is not the point I was making.

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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/20/2021 3:46:25 PM   
ncc1701e


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ago1000

quote:

ORIGINAL: canuckgamer

It is December 39 and all my UK fighters are still 1939 interceptors even though the tech level has been at 1940 interceptors for some time. This turn I unclicked the priority for all the UK units except for one fighter and the armour in North Africa. I am assuming that this should increase the probability of the one fighter advancing to 1940 interceptor. I have 40 PP on repair/upgrade. If the one fighter doesn't advance to the 1940 level soon I would say there is way too much luck in advancements. I prefer something between how it works now and how it works in SC WIE.

+1 on priority technique.
Note if the unit is damaged, reinforcements are given before upgrading the unit. Have enough PP for both.


Seems this is false:
https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4943110


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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/20/2021 4:38:43 PM   
ago1000


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ncc1701e


quote:

ORIGINAL: ago1000

quote:

ORIGINAL: canuckgamer

It is December 39 and all my UK fighters are still 1939 interceptors even though the tech level has been at 1940 interceptors for some time. This turn I unclicked the priority for all the UK units except for one fighter and the armour in North Africa. I am assuming that this should increase the probability of the one fighter advancing to 1940 interceptor. I have 40 PP on repair/upgrade. If the one fighter doesn't advance to the 1940 level soon I would say there is way too much luck in advancements. I prefer something between how it works now and how it works in SC WIE.

+1 on priority technique.
Note if the unit is damaged, reinforcements are given before upgrading the unit. Have enough PP for both.


Seems this is false:
https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4943110



You've lost me? Reinforcements will occur before the upgrade and your link even says that.

quote:

ORIGINAL: AlvaroSousa

Units get replacements then upgrades.

There is no requirement to be at full strength to get an upgrade.



Here is a video of my meaning, if you don't have enough PP for both, your unit will only reinforce/repair not upgrade.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6UTrQdK-30&ab_channel=WW2Boardgamer0100

Reinforcements/upgrades follow specific set of rules which include units distance from ports, closeness to front lines, it's current strength level.



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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/20/2021 4:40:29 PM   
AlvaroSousa


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What is wrong with it.

Units are given PPs 1st then upgrades regardless if they are damaged.

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- Assault on Democracy SC2
- Map Image Importer SC3

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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/20/2021 5:36:35 PM   
ago1000


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quote:

ORIGINAL: AlvaroSousa

What is wrong with it.

Units are given PPs 1st then upgrades regardless if they are damaged.

Nothing.

quote:

ORIGINAL: AlvaroSousa

Beta manuals that have the weather chart tanles
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1SHuPARd9_u02hHtmGdEspTInAabbtD0-/view?usp=sharing

OR go the manuals section in the game directory

As for the tech yea there is luck. It's part of the game. Combat also affects tech if I remember putting it in.



How is combat factored into the mix. For example, if Germany only has HQs using Anti-Tank and their infantry Assault, assault will advance quicker due to combat? If you have more inf than armor, does that mean inf techs will advance faster than armor techs?

What about unit type? Do Inf techs increase quicker than Aircraft techs or Naval Techs?

< Message edited by ago1000 -- 1/20/2021 6:58:31 PM >


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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/21/2021 5:41:40 PM   
kennonlightfoot

 

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How quickly the Advancement levels change depends on the number of points you put into it. Since most start at 1939 level you have a maximum of 4 points you can assign to one. As the year level goes up the maximum increase by +1 until it reaches 9.

With a level of 3 points the turn to turn decrease in number of days until it upgrades to the next level decrease by slightly less than the 14 days of time that passes. That means on average you will see the change to 1940 level occur after about a year. Rarely sooner.

At level 4 points you will usually see it take about one year or slightly less.

Some pretty rough numbers I observed for different number of advancement points set:
1 Point: 50 turns or more.
2 Points: 33 turns on average.
3 Points: 27 turns on average.
4 Points: 15 to 18 turns
5 Points: 13 to 16 turns

But on the lower levels it wasn't unusual to see no change in number of estimated days left after a turn.

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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/21/2021 7:50:19 PM   
ago1000


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quote:

ORIGINAL: kennonlightfoot

How quickly the Advancement levels change depends on the number of points you put into it. Since most start at 1939 level you have a maximum of 4 points you can assign to one. As the year level goes up the maximum increase by +1 until it reaches 9.

With a level of 3 points the turn to turn decrease in number of days until it upgrades to the next level decrease by slightly less than the 14 days of time that passes. That means on average you will see the change to 1940 level occur after about a year. Rarely sooner.

At level 4 points you will usually see it take about one year or slightly less.

Some pretty rough numbers I observed for different number of advancement points set:
1 Point: 50 turns or more.
2 Points: 33 turns on average.
3 Points: 27 turns on average.
4 Points: 15 to 18 turns
5 Points: 13 to 16 turns

But on the lower levels it wasn't unusual to see no change in number of estimated days left after a turn.

Thank you.

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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/21/2021 8:06:19 PM   
baloo7777


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quote:

ORIGINAL: kennonlightfoot

How quickly the Advancement levels change depends on the number of points you put into it. Since most start at 1939 level you have a maximum of 4 points you can assign to one. As the year level goes up the maximum increase by +1 until it reaches 9.

With a level of 3 points the turn to turn decrease in number of days until it upgrades to the next level decrease by slightly less than the 14 days of time that passes. That means on average you will see the change to 1940 level occur after about a year. Rarely sooner.

At level 4 points you will usually see it take about one year or slightly less.

Some pretty rough numbers I observed for different number of advancement points set:
1 Point: 50 turns or more.
2 Points: 33 turns on average.
3 Points: 27 turns on average.
4 Points: 15 to 18 turns
5 Points: 13 to 16 turns

But on the lower levels it wasn't unusual to see no change in number of estimated days left after a turn.


Not my experience in both recent PBEM and many vs AI. Everyone research the tech they most want at max (4 pts) then as soon as it allows (which has been somewhat random, but closer to a set time period) you can go to the next level. In one recent PBEM game, my Germans didn't get the Assault 1940 until the 2nd May turn and also did not get Heavy Armor 1940 until the June 22nd turn (by which time the 39 armor was seriously depleted and it will undoubtedly affect the game). My Close Support turned to 40 tech on the first June turn. However, in that same game my subs were at 1941 tech by the first March 1940 turn (unfortunately I had very bad luck/dice rolls I the BOA and only had two subs remaining). In the 2nd PBEM game, my Germans had 40 Assault, 40 Heavy Armor, 41 Fighters, and 40 Close Support by late March 1940.
I have also seen in that first game my (maxed at 4 pts since the start) Heavy Armor go from 14 days to 6 days in one turn (very discouraging), and have seen in a couple of AI games where my sub tech did not change (like 0 days) 2 turns in a row (which I just thought was a glitch but have seen it twice and read it in one of these threads too).
My point isn't that research and tech being random is broken... it's that in 1940, the Germans should completely outclass the Allies in the important tech (as they did in Armor, Infantry tactics, and Planes except when the Spitfire changed to the Merlin and became the equal of the 109s)... or why start the war? And how do you plan for battle with no idea what your TOE will be?
Mostly, it would be nice to have a clue about the tech tree and percentages to make educated guesses about what to do. Like in SC2 where the tech tree has little info on what that nationality does well in for tech levels.


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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/22/2021 7:45:37 PM   
ncc1701e


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If we are in 1942, is it faster to research 1939 or 1940 technology? Looks at my Escort Fighters at 1940 level. Since we are in 1942, will the search be faster?




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You don't trust me, do you? I don't blame you. If there is to be a brave new world, our generation is going to have the hardest time living in it.

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RE: How much luck involved in advancements? - 1/23/2021 12:19:49 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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On average I find that if I maximize my techs and keep them maximized they will advance to the next level every 8 turns. So assuming maximum tech investment the average date you will achieve each tech level is:

Starting Tech 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945
1939 May 1940 Jan 1941 Sept 1941 May 1942 Jan 1943 Sept 43
1940 N/A May 1940 Jan 1941 Sept 1941 May 1942 Jan 43

But this is just my experience of the average and results for particular techs can vary by several months.

Edit: Although I tried to leave spaces in my post they do not show up. So my above table is very hard to read. Sorry.

< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 1/23/2021 12:24:30 AM >

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