From: eastern CT
First, I seem to be very unlucky in this PBEM game, or at least in my PBEM experiences, so that is not something I can do anything about, and I have won 2 of 4 PBEM games so I must have better luck at times.
However, what exactly is going on under the hood in the advancements? I present two screenshots as evidence of crazy percentages and unrealistic advancement. Shouldn't a player be able to plan somewhat for future offenses with some reasonable certainty of the TO&E his army will go to war with? In no way would Germany have gone to war with France/England with 1939 Close support planes as the Luftwaffe is already far from the air superiority force that it enjoyed over France in 1940 and the destruction of the Soviet Air force on the ground in 1941.
On the 2nd May turn 1940 my fighters got 41 tech. My close support air just got its 1940 tech in June 1940, and my heavy armor is still 1939 tech (last turn it was 14 days, this turn it is 6 days from change)?!? WTH... I have maxed Assault, Heavy Armor, Interdiction, Close Support, and Subs since the beginning, checking every turn to see if I could add 1 level. The only good thing was I got to 1941 Sub tech 2 turns ago (and paused it, while I upgrade my 4 subs, while fighting in France). Unfortunately, my BOA has been awful, with my subs taking heavy casualties almost every turn of 1939 and 1940 (bad luck I suppose).
Here is my point... if you have bad rolls in weather (no cold turns in March/April '40), have awful losses in the early BOA years to the UBoat Fleet (having to consider abandoning before War in the East), AND not have any luck in researching advancements... you probably should lose the war...but this is PBEM and it is a bit too early to throw in the towel.
We have a table that shows weather probabilities in each zone. Is it possible to have a probability table for Advancements for each country, preferably by year researched in.
(Screen shot of June 1940 advancement for German Close Support):