sillyflower
Posts: 3236
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Back in Blighty
Status: offline
|
quote:
ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
I kind of like it. Would mix things up a bit. So long as the chance is low enough that you don't automatically do Greece without even thinking about it and there is a real element of risk.
There is no risk unless you won't invade Yug if doesn't come peacefully.The correct cost of invading Greece by paraspam is zero at the moment.To quote myself:
quote:
ORIGINAL: AlvaroSousa
"If there is a gimme way with paras then I have to nix it completely. BTW it's 1500 production.
As for the Greeks they are set up historically.
So let's Cost analysis this.
1 + 3 new air transports = 360
1 + 3 new paras = 720
I know landing by sea is tough when the UK is active there.
After some thought and looking at some math I believe you guys are correct. I will be removing the Yugoslavia event. I can't find a way to reasonable defend vs the paradrop version of this without making it an absolute decision. I can't even give them an air sup because they only had 78 aircraft in which probably only 2/3rds were operational. The cost benefit is too great spending 1080 to get 1500 yugo armies and not having to garrison Yugoslavia".
MY RESPONSE:
Even Homer can nod, Alvaro
Your analysis of the cost of invasion wrongly assumes that the new units have no value after invading Greece. The real 'cost' is effectively nil as per the analysis below .
None of the attacking units are lost. The paras and the transports can be used again, and half the PP para cost and all the manpower are returned on disbandment of the units. So the maximum possible cost is only 600 points lost - 2 new transports (they can't be disbanded but have some continuing value so I haven't put the 3rd as a 'lost' cost) and half the cost of 3 paras. For those Germans who buy a 2nd para anyway (?the majority), the real cost of getting Yugoslavia's 1500 points is only 360 points. The Yugo economy will soon repay those 360 points by making even more units/upgrades, and even the 600 points in time".
Therefore under the 50% chance proposal, invading Greece has a 50% chance of gaining 1500+ PPs for the axis for free, and a 50% chance of not, costing a maximum of 360 PPs. If you lost the gamble but kept the paras for Barbarossa then the 360 points won't have been wasted so the strategy remains pretty much cost-free and with a 50% chance of a massive boost to the Axis.
As a variant, invading Greece the sveint way (if I can call it that) with invasions with 2 inf xxx but only 2 paras would cost 90PP on landing craft but save 360 PP on the extra paras + transport a/c as an alternative.
So who still thinks that only a 50% Yugo joins axis conversion chance is a real deterrent to invading Greece 1st? The only situation that might be a deterrent is that it was 50% go axis and 50% join allies. Even then, it's not much of a deterrent because it will be so easy to KO an allied (or neutral) Yug. very rapidly from 3 sides: especially as there will be more time as a weakened France will now fall earlier.
The only a deterrent without doing something to bolster Greece in an artificial way would be Yug takes no notice of events in Greece or automatically goes allied.The latter doesn't make much/any sense though. NB - I only added in this idea after Flavius' post and I don't want to make anyone thinking that it has his endorsement.
< Message edited by sillyflower -- 7/24/2020 9:12:54 PM >
_____________________________
web exchange
Post: I am always fearful that when I put this game down on the table and people see the box-art they will think I am some kind of neo-Nazi
Reply: They already know you're a gamer. What other shame can possibly compare?
|
Printable Version
Yugoslavia - 
. I really don´t know but if I think a little bit maybe something like this: 
New Messages
No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages
Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages
Locked w/o New Messages
Post New Thread