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Tool for estimating naval missile salvos

 
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Tool for estimating naval missile salvos - 7/16/2020 1:48:29 AM   
musurca

 

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So you've found the enemy fleet-- but how many missiles should you use in your opening salvo? If you choose too few, you risk being swatted away by the enemy's point defense. But if you choose too many, you're wasting missiles you should reserve for later threats.

I've been working on a Google spreadsheet to give you a better estimate, based on the salvo model provided in Cpt. Hughes' Fleet Tactics and Coastal Combat. It also provides a time-on-target planner for synchronizing missile salvos from different locations. I've posted it to the /r/CMANO Reddit + the official Discord chat and I'd also like to share it on the forum, but it won't let me post the link here—apparently I have to make 10 posts before I can do that. Is there any way around that?

LINK: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zwKAeAr8XzsOEg99ujl28T5XXGwr-MIHyXbVt9z_rqI/edit?usp=sharing

Here's what it looks like at the moment:




Attachment (2)

< Message edited by musurca -- 1/13/2021 6:35:31 PM >
Post #: 1
RE: Tool for estimating naval missile salvos - 7/16/2020 2:55:21 AM   
stww2

 

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Thanks for sharing this! I'll have to test it out at some point; it's certainly an improvement over my current formula of "how many missiles do I think I'll need *2."

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RE: Tool for estimating naval missile salvos - 7/16/2020 5:36:27 AM   
parmenio

 

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Thanks for this..... odd that a new user can't post a link (something I already knew) but could attach a macro-enabled Excel spreadsheet with all that can imply.

(it isn't by the way - macro-enabled I mean)

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RE: Tool for estimating naval missile salvos - 7/16/2020 8:51:31 AM   
DracheTek

 

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How is the outcome compared with the MDV in the database?

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RE: Tool for estimating naval missile salvos - 7/16/2020 2:18:21 PM   
musurca

 

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The database MDV (Missile Defense Value) is certainly going to be your starting point for setting the Defensive Power in the spreadsheet—but in practice I find that this is an ideal value, and will tend to decrease depending on the defender’s proficiency, time/weather conditions, available magazines for point defenses, angle of attack on the group, whether the missiles are detected early, etc.

The Early Detection checkbox I’ve provided models this to some degree. Hughes broadly suggests that surprise is a 2x multiplier, so if the defender does not detect the missiles early, I model his Defensive Power as half of what it would be normally.

For example: in Uncle Mark’s Tutorial #1, your group starts with 16 Harpoons to kill a 3-ship Soviet surface group with a Defensive Power of 5.3 (the average of the MDVs: 6, 6, and 4) and a Staying Power of 1 (it only takes 1 good Harpoon to kill a ship). With Early Detection on—i.e. if the Soviets see your missiles coming from a distance—the model suggests that you will not have enough Harpoons to kill the group in a salvo. However, with Early Detection off—that is, if you can detect the Soviets first and get your missiles off from over the horizon—the model predicts that you will have more than enough missiles to confidently kill the entire group, as long as you allocate at least 5 missiles to each ship in the salvo, while suggesting you may also be able to risk using fewer. I’ve tested this a bit and generally found it to be the case, although results may vary depending on the factors I mentioned above.

In other words, the model is going to give you a better estimate for strike planning (better than missiles * 2, I hope!), but you still have to use your judgement to some degree, as the MDV cannot be entirely relied upon. The accuracy of your results will depend on how you interpret the Defensive Power value for your offensive situation.

(Try playing around with those numbers in the model. You’ll see, as Hughes points out in the book, how small changes will produce wildly decisive swings, as you cross the saturation point of the enemy defenses.)

< Message edited by musurca -- 7/16/2020 2:24:15 PM >

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RE: Tool for estimating naval missile salvos - 7/16/2020 3:41:47 PM   
Gunner98

 

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This looks very nice and useful for planning AI strikes. Thank you

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RE: Tool for estimating naval missile salvos - 7/17/2020 10:37:54 PM   
musurca

 

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Joined: 7/16/2020
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I've just updated the spreadsheet to v1.2, which now also includes a time-on-target planner for synchronizing missile salvos from different locations. You can find it in the attachment in the parent post. (But as always, the best version is on Google Sheets, which you can find as a link in the Excel spreadsheet, or by going to the /r/CMANO Reddit.)

(in reply to Gunner98)
Post #: 7
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