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TAIWAN Air Superiority Test 2021

 
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TAIWAN Air Superiority Test 2021 - 7/12/2020 4:38:08 AM   
DracheTek

 

Posts: 45
Joined: 7/5/2020
Status: offline
I wrote up this scenario myself to sort out some problem.
First let's take a look at what database think the both sides have.
TAIWAN (BLUE hereafter. I would like to minimize the realistic naming in this scenario) have nine active airbases on its main island, which consists of:

Hanger total 123
Aircraft Bunker Total 96
Aircraft Shelter Total 250
Ammo Bunker 76
AVGas Target 51
Runway Total 15
Taxiway Total 10
Runway Access 86

"Aircraft Bunker" require direct hit of 1500KG penetrate bomb to destroy, runway grade targets requires penetrator or any other runway specified weapons to destroy. anything else can be destroyed with any ground attack weapon.

BLUE air force consists of:

E-2K Hawkeye 2000E,6
F-16V Blk 70/72 Falcon,54
Mirage 2000-5EI,48
F-16A Blk 20 Falcon,84
F-CK-1C Hsiung Ying [Ching Kuo MLU],72
F-CK-1D Hsiung Ying [Ching Kuo MLU],36

and 9 PATRIOT 3 launch groups, plus other last generation SAM sites (namely HAWK and Chaparrel) as needed.

They are evenly distributed in each airbase, in case one missile strike nails a whole type of aircraft on the ground. This is not realistic in real life. 18 F-16V is in the air doing air patrol, and all aircrafts will take order to evacuate into the air once RED missile is detected.

PRC (RED hereafter) air force consists of:
J-20 Mighty Dragon,38
J-11B Flanker B [Su-27SK Copy],36
J-11D Flanker B [Su-27SK Copy],36
Z-10 Fierce Thunderbolt,24
J-10C Vigorous Dragon,144
J-16 Flying Shark [Su-30MKK Copy],108
KJ-2000 Mainring [A-50],1

I stationed a total of 36*3=108 SU-27 lineup aircrafts in XIAMEN-QUANZHOU airbases in respond of possible enemy HSIUNG FENG 2E cruise missile attack. Other aircrafts are stationed in JIANGXI-HUNAN airbases. It takes an average of 30 min for these aircrafts to reach the front line. J-10C can be reduced to 108 and does not affect the outcome much. KJ-2000 is in the air at the beginning of the mission, with two J-20 escort.

The air patrol mission of either side is near TAIWAN strait. Mission is arranged such that the most advanced aircraft(J-20 and F-16V respectively) take off first.

The missile strike of RED consists of 160 DF-15C targeting airfields and 80~100 DF-16B submunition warhead targeting SAM sites. It should grant 99% success of my tactical goal-suppress all airfields and silence all SAM sites. This strike involves a database bug that sets most of RED missile vehicle reload time to 1 sec. In real life I doubt if RED side can gather that many launch trucks.

Despite that, BLUE will be able to scramble around forty aircrafts before ballistic missiles hit, and they will very aggressively engage RED aircrafts taking off from frontline airfields, but AIM-120C7 has a max range of 60 nm, 2/3 of it of PL-15, which is 90nm. It will cause BLUE aircraft frequently go defensive maneuver before even engaging RED aircraft.

One typical result loss/exp chart is following:

SIDE: BLUE
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
24x 20mm T-92 AAA Gun [Cargo]
12x 35mm Twin Oerlikon [UAR-1021 Skyguard FCR] [Cargo]
1x A/C Hangar (2x Large Aircraft)
12x Antelope SAM Quad Launcher [Cargo]
2x E-2K Hawkeye 2000E
66x F-16A Blk 20 Falcon
19x F-16V Blk 70/72 Falcon
66x F-CK-1C Hsiung Ying [Ching Kuo MLU]
26x F-CK-1D Hsiung Ying [Ching Kuo MLU]
36x M192 I-HAWK [Cargo]
13x Mirage 2000-5EI
12x Patriot M901 [Cargo]
4x Patriot M901 [Cargo]
30x Sky Bow III [Tien Kung 3, Mobile] [Cargo]
6x Vehicle (AN/MPQ-50 PAR) [Cargo]
6x Vehicle (AN/MPQ-51 ROR) [Cargo]
6x Vehicle (AN/MPQ-55 ICWAR) [Cargo]
12x Vehicle (AN/MPQ-57 HPI [TAS Camera]) [Cargo]
2x Vehicle (AN/MPQ-65) [Cargo]
6x Vehicle (CS/MPQ-78) [Cargo]
5x Vehicle (Long White 2, Mobile) [Cargo]


EXPENDITURES:
------------------
130x AIM-120C-7 AMRAAM P3I.3
2x AIM-2000A IRIS-T
30x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
412x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
2x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Dual Spectral]
6x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
21x MICA EM
125x MIM-104E Patriot PAC-2 GEM+
32x MIM-104F Patriot PAC-3 ERINT
1x Sky Sword I
18x Sky Sword II



SIDE: RED
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
8x J-11B Flanker B [Su-27SK Copy]
5x J-11D Flanker B [Su-27SK Copy]
8x J-16 Flying Shark [Su-30MKK Copy]
6x J-20 Mighty Dragon


EXPENDITURES:
------------------
156x DF-15C [Penetrator, CSS-6 Mod-3]
156x DF-15C RV [Penetrator, CSS-6 Mod-3]
51x DF-16B [Submunitions]
51x DF-16B RV [Submunitions]
135x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
1x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
80x HQ-9B
6x PL-10
540x PL-15
48x SA-20b Gargoyle [48N6E2]
64x SA-21b Growler [40N6]


The loss of J-20 is caused by themselves rushing into the PAC-3 range in chase of BLUE E2K.

==========DISCUSSION========

If BLUE attack RED air force aggressively, they will sure be suppressed with longer range air to air missile and S-400 systems. what if BLUE keep aircrafts on the ground, and hope for the best? since in theory RED can only gather around 80 missiles attacking airfield.

< Message edited by DracheTek -- 7/12/2020 12:20:55 PM >
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