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RE: beta release for testing: Taiwan A2AD, 2022

 
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RE: beta release for testing: Taiwan A2AD, 2022 - 6/28/2020 2:31:29 AM   
KungPao


Posts: 277
Joined: 4/25/2016
From: Red China
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quote:

ORIGINAL: KnightHawk75

Has anyone actually successfully taken out a sat in CMO with a rim-161c or e? Let alone even gotten one to leave the ship (automatic or manual)?

I have shot down several Sat with SM-3 in current CMO version, but there are bugs. The SM-3 will only fire in a prefect condition.
This ASAT issue was reported in Tech Support by someone else, so hopefully this problem can be fixed in next update.

quote:

ORIGINAL: caohailiang
and i dont see too many player-controllable options in countering satellite,

From my experience in "Air Sea Battle" , the ECM on Burke DDG can hide the whole formation from SAR Sat.




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(in reply to KnightHawk75)
Post #: 61
RE: beta release for testing: Taiwan A2AD, 2022 - 6/28/2020 7:45:53 AM   
KnightHawk75

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: KungPao


quote:

ORIGINAL: KnightHawk75

Has anyone actually successfully taken out a sat in CMO with a rim-161c or e? Let alone even gotten one to leave the ship (automatic or manual)?

I have shot down several Sat with SM-3 in current CMO version, but there are bugs. The SM-3 will only fire in a prefect condition.
This ASAT issue was reported in Tech Support by someone else, so hopefully this problem can be fixed in next update.

quote:

ORIGINAL: caohailiang
and i dont see too many player-controllable options in countering satellite,

From my experience in "Air Sea Battle" , the ECM on Burke DDG can hide the whole formation from SAR Sat.




Thank you, that's good to hear, I was starting to wonder if was broken completely and not just partially lol.

(in reply to KungPao)
Post #: 62
RE: beta release for testing: Taiwan A2AD, 2022 - 6/28/2020 10:06:03 PM   
magi

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: KungPao

From my experience in "Air Sea Battle" , the ECM on Burke DDG can hide the whole formation from SAR Sat.


really.....?? i need to check this out... how does that work....
in air sea battle there is so much cover from the weather..that is what i believed is what helped in making blu difficult to target in that way using sat...

(in reply to KungPao)
Post #: 63
RE: beta release for testing: Taiwan A2AD, 2022 - 6/28/2020 11:07:44 PM   
BeirutDude


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This is one I've thought about a bit and IMHO deception doesn't have to be difficult. Consider a couple of old super tankers, in the formation made up to resemble a carrier from satellite and then when the missiles launch (and the USN will see the launches) they break off and start squawking like a CVBG. With limited time for the PRC to evaluate the targets on terminal approach, split second decisions and ECM. Might work to soak off much of the attack.

I'm sorry, not trying to underestimate the other guy here, but by the same token the PLA(N)/PLAAF are supermen either. To every weapons system (with the exception of nukes) there is a counter. If the USN just sent three carriers into DF-21D/DF-26 range that tells me there is a plan. Maybe it's pre-"Pearl Harbor" type plan which is unrealistic, I don't know but suspect the USN isn't just risking 30 billion dollars and over 18,000 lives out there on the good will of the PRC.

I will say, IMHO, these types of weapons do increase the odds of a U.S. first strike in a crisis.

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(in reply to magi)
Post #: 64
RE: beta release for testing: Taiwan A2AD, 2022 - 6/28/2020 11:14:40 PM   
magi

 

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i have been looking at this scenario for quite awhile....and it seems to make a twain invasion look rather simplistic... it lacks a bit of dimension....
there would be minefields.. submarines and still substantial defenses which had been dug into the mountains...
also an invasion of the scope in which hundreds of thousands of forces with their materials would be gathered for assault from the sea... would take weeks to assemble.. and everybody would know something big was up....
As this is presented is very much more game than simulation... which is perfectly fine for a fun scenario....
while there are so many factors involved in an event like this... i believe it would look somewhat different...
but two simple things lacking are minefields and Japanese subs....

< Message edited by magi -- 7/2/2020 5:18:52 AM >

(in reply to magi)
Post #: 65
RE: beta release for testing: Taiwan A2AD, 2022 - 6/29/2020 9:51:35 AM   
caohailiang

 

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Hi BeirutDude,
Some would question whether ASBM is just a strategic deception, while some US defense expert (such as Andrew Erickson) testified in congress on how dangerous it is. To me it is indeed quite mysterious that no open report on live test of Chinese ASBM (at least i havent seen any).

I have been thinking about your comment earlier, that why dont move all the navy aircrafts to land airbases. What i want to understand by designing/testing this scenario is:

1, what additional value US carrier would bring to the theater, other than just some additional number of aircraft? because if there is none, then you are right, just bring those aircrafts to Japan airbases and send the carriers home.
In my scenario, for the US/Japan side to win, they only need to make a temporary break through at a point of weakness and sent in AShMs hordes to sunk the PLA amphibious ships.
You can see as in my latest T version, the carriers in southeast Philippine sea will force China side to defend a 1200 nm front instead of a 500 nm front. this "temporary break through" will be much easier to make if your opponent's resource is being spread thin along a much wider front.
I think this is the value of the carriers in this scenario, especially when there is no US airbase in Philippine.


2, in what distance will the carriers be able to survive, and will the carriers still be able to launch offensive from that distance. Given the current simulation, 1000nm is far from a safe distance, maybe 1200? 1400? i dont know yet.
All of these is of course based on the CMO simulation of ASBM effectiveness , which no one really know is accurate or not.

and what do you mean by first strike? as in nuclear?

(in reply to BeirutDude)
Post #: 66
RE: beta release for testing: Taiwan A2AD, 2022 - 6/29/2020 10:13:13 AM   
caohailiang

 

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Hi Magi,
thanks for your attention to my little scenario ^_^

i agree with you in the sense that the US side may get a longer time warning, so be able to mass a much larger force. but i dont have the slightest clue exactly how would that look like. strategic deception sometimes works, sometimes doesnt, hope someone can provide more insight into this.

Maybe someone can teach me here, if given long enough warning(let's say 4 weeks), what would the max amount for the US to relocate her force to the west pacific, considering the upper limit of infrastructure in west pacific.

i dont understand why Japanese subs or minefields can make a big difference here, maybe you can elaborate. i mean CMO is very limited in many aspects, when there are things that can cancel each other out, i have to. For example i think PLAN's 80*056 corvettes and 3 dozen relatively modern subs can cancel JMSDF subs out.

wrt the Taiwan ground forces dug in the mountains, this scenario does not really try to simulate that part of the war.


(in reply to magi)
Post #: 67
RE: beta release for testing: Taiwan A2AD, 2022 - 7/2/2020 5:58:41 AM   
magi

 

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there are a number of articles on Taiwan defense... here are a couple of little ones... with a couple of quotes....

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/

"This is the best-case scenario for the PLA. But an island docile and defeated two weeks after D-Day is not a guaranteed outcome. One of the central hurdles facing the offensive is surprise. The PLA simply will not have it. The invasion will happen in April or October. Because of the challenges posed by the strait’s weather, a transport fleet can only make it across the strait in one of these two four-week windows. The scale of the invasion will be so large that strategic surprise will not be possible, especially given the extensive mutual penetration of each side by the other’s intelligence agencies.

Easton estimates that Taiwanese, American, and Japanese leaders will know that the PLA is preparing for a cross-strait war more than 60 days before hostilities begin. They will know for certain that an invasion will happen more than 30 days before the first missiles are fired. This will give the Taiwanese ample time to move much of their command and control infrastructure into hardened mountain tunnels, move their fleet out of vulnerable ports, detain suspected agents and intelligence operatives, litter the ocean with sea mines, disperse and camouflage army units across the country, put the economy on war footing, and distribute weapons to Taiwan’s 2.5 million reservists.

"There are only 13 beaches on Taiwan’s western coast that the PLA could possibly land at. Each of these has already been prepared for a potential conflict. Long underground tunnels—complete with hardened, subterranean supply depots—crisscross the landing sites. The berm of each beach has been covered with razor-leaf plants. Chemical treatment plants are common in many beach towns—meaning that invaders must prepare for the clouds of toxic gas any indiscriminate saturation bombing on their part will release. This is how things stand in times of peace.

As war approaches, each beach will be turned into a workshop of horrors. The path from these beaches to the capital has been painstakingly mapped; once a state of emergency has been declared, each step of the journey will be complicated or booby-trapped. PLA war manuals warn soldiers that skyscrapers and rock outcrops will have steel cords strung between them to entangle helicopters; tunnels, bridges, and overpasses will be rigged with munitions (to be destroyed only at the last possible moment); and building after building in Taiwan’s dense urban core will be transformed into small redoubts meant to drag Chinese units into drawn-out fights over each city street."

https://warontherocks.com/2018/10/hope-on-the-horizon-taiwans-radical-new-defense-concept/

"Mines and Missiles

Sea mines are a critical capability at the heart of the Overall Defense Concept. Historically, sea mines have proven difficult to counter, and effective at slowing invasion forces. In the Korean War, the U.S. invasion force at Incheon landed before North Koreans could deploy sea mines. U.S. forces landed quickly, met heavy resistance ashore, and found warehouses full of mines after they cleared the beach. At the attack on Wonson a month later, sea mines were deployed offshore before the planned invasion. Two minesweepers were destroyed by mines while under fire from shore-based artillery, and clearing operations took two weeks. U.S. Marine and Army units embarked on transports had to wait five days offshore for lanes to be cleared, which only happened after North Korean forces abandoned their positions.

The government-led National Chung Shan Institute for Science and Technology (NCSIST), Taiwan’s main designer and manufacturer of defense articles, is currently developing two new types of shallow and deep-water influence mines, which they plan to deploy by 2021. They are also developing a self-propelled mine with a planned deployment date around 2025. Until then, Taiwan has been refurbishing its current mine inventory, which includes domestically manufactured Wan Xiang mines, and MK-6 mines acquired from the United States. Taiwan has also sought U.S.-manufactured MK62 Quickstrike air-deployed mines, which could be rapidly deployed by C-130s or P-3Cs, but the sale of that critical capability has not yet been approved by the U.S. Department of Defense.

The Hsiung Feng 2 and 3 missiles are the other weapons at the heart of the Overall Defense Concept. These missiles are fielded by surface ships and fired ashore from a handful of vulnerable fixed batteries, and from batteries of truck launchers. With the expectation that large surface ships will be primary targets neutralized early in a conflict, the Overall Defense Concept also relies on small fast attack vessels, such as the 112-foot long Kuang Hwa which mounts four Hsiung Feng missiles, and can be quickly reloaded in austere locations such as small fishing ports that dot Taiwan’s coastline. The Taiwan Navy is reportedly acquiring an even smaller vessel that carries two missiles. NCSIST is upgrading missiles and increasing production of anti-ship cruise missiles, land attack cruise missiles, and surface-to-air missiles to arm new ships and launchers, deepen magazines, and ensure that Taiwan’s armed forces have sufficient munitions to hold out for an extended period."

(in reply to caohailiang)
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