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RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

 
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RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/7/2020 6:26:27 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7643
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Until you have enough people infected then recovered, you will not reach heard immunity.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53315983


The problem with that study is that the antibody level may go so low that it is not detected but the memory B cells can ramp up production of antibodies fairly quickly to stop a reinfection. That memory B cell information was posted previously.

The article also states how people can keep getting the common cold many times, but there are over 100 viruses that can cause the common cold. The article does not state that people can get the common cold from the same virus again. That is why adults may not get a cold even if they are around children who have a cold and are infectious.

_____________________________

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I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

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(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 631
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/7/2020 6:34:30 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7643
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
It is hard to stop the spread when:

Coronavirus: Majority testing positive have no symptoms

quote:

ONS survey

While the ONS survey includes relatively small numbers of positive swab tests (120 infections in all) making it hard to make any strong conclusions about who is most likely to be infected, there are some patterns coming through in the data:

Those in people-facing health or social care roles, and working outside their homes in general, were more likely to have a positive test.
People from ethnic minority backgrounds were more likely to have a positive antibody test, suggesting a past infection.
White people were the least likely proportionally to test positive for antibodies.
There was also some evidence that people living in larger households were more likely to test positive than those in smaller households.

Although men are more likely to die from coronavirus than women, this study did not find a difference in how likely they were to contract the infection.


https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53320155

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 632
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/7/2020 6:37:18 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7643
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
How would these deaths be counted:

WHO Finds Over 70 Countries At Risk Of Running Out Of HIV Drugs Due To COVID-19 Pandemic
As per the WHO survey, 24 nations out of the total have confirmed having “critically low” stock of antiretroviral medicine (ARV) owing to supply chain issues

quote:

World Health Organisation has revealed that 70 countries are at risk of running out HIV drugs due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As per a recent survey, 24 nations out of the total have confirmed having “critically low” stock of antiretroviral medicine (ARV) used in HIV treatment. In addendum, these countries have also reportedly confirmed experiencing disruptions in the supply chain since the pandemic started.

The COVID-19 pandemic has now spiralled out to infect over 11,520,000 people worldwide as per the latest tally by John Hopkins University. Meanwhile, talking about the shortage of HIV drugs, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in a statement, called the survey's findings "deeply concerning".


https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/who-finds-more-than-70-countries-at-risk-of-running-out-of-hiv-drugs.html

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 633
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/7/2020 6:49:16 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14028
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

There is much in that thread that I would agree with.

But there is a massive leap from the current data to "dozens of NYCs around the country"

If you look at the NY numbers for late March/early April (referring to the 7 day averages). On 22/03 cases were at 2164. A week later they were at 6493 - cases had almost exactly tripled within a week. Over the same period of time deaths went from 28 to 216 - within a week they had gone up by c.7X (put another way deaths had doubled c. 3 times within a week).

Another way to look at it is the CFR. If we use a 7 day window, those 6493 cases on 29/03 translated to 633 deaths on 05/04 - a CFR of c.10%. If by comparison we look at the numbers in Georgia - cases seem to have started spiking on around 13/06 from a 'base' of 984. Looking at the graph for deaths there seems to be a corresponding up-tick developing around 25/06 at around 16 deaths. That would equate to a CFR of 1.5%.

A final way to look at it would be daily deaths/100k population. At the peak in NY this was at about 4.75. At the moment Florida is at about 0.2. So even if deaths 'followed' cases and doubled every week it would take about 4.5 weeks of consistent increase at that pace before getting to the equivalent of NY. California/Georgia/Texas are a little lower at 0.15/0.15/0.13 respectively. Arizona is worse off at about 0.5 (so just over 3 weeks worth of weekly doubling to reach an equivalent of NY).

I think the much bigger concern from a US perspective is what happens in October/November. I think that period will be difficult everywhere but the US will be in a uniquely difficult position as the Covid-19 'issue' has become much more politicised than it has elsewhere - a problem that could become even more acute if the situation starts getting more ugly a month or two out from national elections.



Testing was only just starting to see the tip of the iceberg in NY in late March and early April. As we know now the actual number of tested cases is nowhere near the actual cases.

Testing now is much more prevalent. We're seeing the actual growth more clearly, not the awareness of an already out of control outbreak like in NY. The CFR for NY during this time is nowhere near accurate.

The issue now is that unlike NY during that time, which was locked down fro March 22, there are no measures in place to check this rise in cases. The existing knowledge and messaging will help, but with more and more awareness that this is transmitting through aerosols and lingers in indoor environments, if masks aren't universal and a portion of the population continues risky behaviours socially, the increases will continue.

You mention that October and November may be even more difficult. What will happen between now and then though? If cases are rising, more of this is around, people are going about daily activities, and hospitals become overwhelmed, late summer will not be good.

This is a piece from the Guardian saying (with combined expert knowledge to back it up) what needs to happen now to battle this recent surge in case numbers.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/05/coronavirus-us-surge-experts-what-to-do

From Tom Frieden, former director of the CDC:

In the US today, the virus has the upper hand. We can expect weeks, even months, of increases if we don’t do much better. The fact is we are creating an enormous viral reservoir that will take a very long time to recede.

One of the most serious problems is the lack of a concerted federal response. You see that in the lack of consistent messaging, the failure to tackle supply issues from tests to protective equipment, the absence of uniform standards on what states should monitor and report publicly.

In short, there is no clear national strategy and no plan for controlling this virus.

We know what we need to do. First, reduce the risk of spread by applying the three Ws: wear a mask, wash your hands and watch your distance. Then box the virus in through strategic testing, effective isolation, and rapid contact tracing and supportive quarantine.

Having done those things, we need to hold ourselves accountable by tracking how quickly tests are reported, patients isolated, and contacts traced. Singapore, New Zealand, South Korea are all tracking those indicators. We are not.


< Message edited by obvert -- 7/7/2020 8:57:27 PM >


_____________________________

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(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 634
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/7/2020 8:30:18 PM   
sPzAbt653


Posts: 9184
Joined: 5/3/2007
From: east coast, usa
Status: offline
The Coverup of the Century

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cav-OCuNmBI

At an hour long, not for everyone, but has a lot of points of interest. I guess it is all up to interpretation of data and what your bias is, but since there has been a little discussion on the topic and some key points have been posted earlier, may be of interest to some.

Perhaps a spoiler but I found most interesting that genome sequencing suggested an origin date of Oct. 7-30 2019, while the Wuhan Lab showed no Cellphone activity for a period starting Oct. 6.

(in reply to sPzAbt653)
Post #: 635
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/7/2020 8:48:25 PM   
moore4807


Posts: 1081
Joined: 6/2/2000
From: Punta Gorda FL
Status: offline
Well I have today officially joined the ranks of the Covid-19 tested. I don't know how to describe the feeling of the swab against the back of my nasal passage. All I can describe is the sudden urge to sneeze and cough at the same time. I deliberately pushed my head against he headrest of my car so I couldn't pull away, as I've seen others do. While the "sneezing/coughing" feeling passed relatively quickly, I had to blow my nose several times as it started a "snot nose" reaction with me lasting 10 mins or so.

I also got a flu test swab shoved up my nostrils there too, found out about a half hour later that I tested negative for both type A and type B flu. Once the Covid-19 test comes back negative, THEN I can see the family doctor for my cold from last week and has been effectively over now for 5 days....lol

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Post #: 636
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/7/2020 8:52:12 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7643
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: moore4807

Well I have today officially joined the ranks of the Covid-19 tested. I don't know how to describe the feeling of the swab against the back of my nasal passage. All I can describe is the sudden urge to sneeze and cough at the same time. I deliberately pushed my head against he headrest of my car so I couldn't pull away, as I've seen others do. While the "sneezing/coughing" feeling passed relatively quickly, I had to blow my nose several times as it started a "snot nose" reaction with me lasting 10 mins or so.

I also got a flu test swab shoved up my nostrils there too, found out about a half hour later that I tested negative for both type A and type B flu. Once the Covid-19 test comes back negative, THEN I can see the family doctor for my cold from last week and has been effectively over now for 5 days....lol


Try that nasal swab test with nothing to put your head against while you also have a sinus infection. Then you get all of that drainage. At least I was outside and not inside wearing a mask . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to moore4807)
Post #: 637
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/7/2020 9:07:26 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 305
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

There is much in that thread that I would agree with.

But there is a massive leap from the current data to "dozens of NYCs around the country"

If you look at the NY numbers for late March/early April (referring to the 7 day averages). On 22/03 cases were at 2164. A week later they were at 6493 - cases had almost exactly tripled within a week. Over the same period of time deaths went from 28 to 216 - within a week they had gone up by c.7X (put another way deaths had doubled c. 3 times within a week).

Another way to look at it is the CFR. If we use a 7 day window, those 6493 cases on 29/03 translated to 633 deaths on 05/04 - a CFR of c.10%. If by comparison we look at the numbers in Georgia - cases seem to have started spiking on around 13/06 from a 'base' of 984. Looking at the graph for deaths there seems to be a corresponding up-tick developing around 25/06 at around 16 deaths. That would equate to a CFR of 1.5%.

A final way to look at it would be daily deaths/100k population. At the peak in NY this was at about 4.75. At the moment Florida is at about 0.2. So even if deaths 'followed' cases and doubled every week it would take about 4.5 weeks of consistent increase at that pace before getting to the equivalent of NY. California/Georgia/Texas are a little lower at 0.15/0.15/0.13 respectively. Arizona is worse off at about 0.5 (so just over 3 weeks worth of weekly doubling to reach an equivalent of NY).

I think the much bigger concern from a US perspective is what happens in October/November. I think that period will be difficult everywhere but the US will be in a uniquely difficult position as the Covid-19 'issue' has become much more politicised than it has elsewhere - a problem that could become even more acute if the situation starts getting more ugly a month or two out from national elections.



Testing was only just starting to see the tip of the iceberg in NY in late March and early April. As we know now the actual number of tested cases is nowhere near the actual cases.

Testing now is much more prevalent. We're seeing the actual growth more clearly, not the awareness of an already out of control outbreak like in NY. The CFR for NY during this time is nowhere near accurate.

The issue now is that unlike NY during that time, which was locked down fro March 22, there are no measures in place to check this rise in cases. The existing knowledge and messaging will help, but with more and more awareness that this is transmitting through aerosols and lingers in indoor environments, if masks aren't universal and a portion of the population continues risky behaviours socially, the increases will continue.

You mention that October and November may be even more difficult. What will happen between now and then though? If cases are rising, more of this is around, people are going about daily activities, and hospitals become overwhelmed, late summer will not be good.



Sorry I maybe didn't explain myself very well. The author was suggesting that the US would see "dozens of NYCs around the country". I don't think that will be the case - my expectation is that in this 'first wave' Texas/California/Florida/Arizona/Georgia will end up with deaths/million similar to states like Michigan/Illinois (and indeed similar to Sweden who did not lockdown at all) - i.e. around 500-600 deaths/million. I don't think they will end up like NY.

IHME have updated again - they are now forecasting 208k deaths by November 1. The October 1 forecast has gone up a little (c.180-185k). UK has gone up also. With the extra month added the different predictions with universal masks are even more stark - 45k lives saved in the US and 20k in the UK. I don't understand why both governments are not being more proactive in mandating masks in most shared public spaces.


< Message edited by Sammy5IsAlive -- 7/7/2020 9:17:56 PM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 638
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/7/2020 10:59:41 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7643
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online


EPA approves use of Lysol surface disinfectant products against COVID-19
The agency said laboratory testing showed they were effective against COVID-19

quote:

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced Monday that it has approved the first two surface disinfectant products, both made by Lysol, against the novel coronavirus.

The products - Lysol Disinfectant Spray and Lysol Disinfectant Max Cover Mist -- were approved by the agency based on laboratory testing that showed they were "effective against" COVID-19, according to a statement by the EPA. Under no circumstance should the disinfectant products be administered into the human body.

“EPA is committed to identifying new tools and providing accurate and up-to-date information to help the American public protect themselves and their families from the novel coronavirus,” said EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler. “EPA's review of products tested against this virus marks an important milestone in President Trump’s all of government approach to fighting the spread of COVID-19."


https://www.foxnews.com/health/epa-approves-lysol-surface-disinfectant-products-tested-against-coronavirus

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 639
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/7/2020 11:19:31 PM   
moore4807


Posts: 1081
Joined: 6/2/2000
From: Punta Gorda FL
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: moore4807

Well I have today officially joined the ranks of the Covid-19 tested. I don't know how to describe the feeling of the swab against the back of my nasal passage. All I can describe is the sudden urge to sneeze and cough at the same time. I deliberately pushed my head against he headrest of my car so I couldn't pull away, as I've seen others do. While the "sneezing/coughing" feeling passed relatively quickly, I had to blow my nose several times as it started a "snot nose" reaction with me lasting 10 mins or so.

I also got a flu test swab shoved up my nostrils there too, found out about a half hour later that I tested negative for both type A and type B flu. Once the Covid-19 test comes back negative, THEN I can see the family doctor for my cold from last week and has been effectively over now for 5 days....lol


Try that nasal swab test with nothing to put your head against while you also have a sinus infection. Then you get all of that drainage. At least I was outside and not inside wearing a mask . . .


Umm No Thank You! I'm now gonna hibernate until this crap gets a solution. I NEEDED a reason to give the wife, so I get more turns playing!



_____________________________


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 640
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 12:02:47 AM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3071
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
Florida is still obscuring statistics. All of a sudden they don't want to report hospitalizations but are more than willing to force schools open. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article244048107.html

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to moore4807)
Post #: 641
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 12:22:35 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7643
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Florida is still obscuring statistics. All of a sudden they don't want to report hospitalizations but are more than willing to force schools open. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article244048107.html


Maybe this is why:

quote:

State health department officials have told researchers that the department does not track current hospitalizations.


But if you need a hospital bed in Florida, check here:

https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/HospitalBedsHospital?%3AshowAppBanner&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y

Also, maybe there are rules not allowing said reporting.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 642
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 12:41:17 AM   
moore4807


Posts: 1081
Joined: 6/2/2000
From: Punta Gorda FL
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Florida is still obscuring statistics. All of a sudden they don't want to report hospitalizations but are more than willing to force schools open. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article244048107.html


Maybe this is why:

quote:

State health department officials have told researchers that the department does not track current hospitalizations.


But if you need a hospital bed in Florida, check here:

https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/HospitalBedsHospital?%3AshowAppBanner&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y

Also, maybe there are rules not allowing said reporting.


About two months ago the woman in charge of the statistics for the Dept. of Health suddenly was moved to another Dept. and she went public that she was replaced because her boss told her to fudge the numbers and she refused. THEN Hillsborough County Medical Examiner produced a letter from Head of Health Dept. instructing each County to STOP reporting hospitalizations and deaths, and forward the info to the Dept of Health instead. The Health Dept. Head and Gov. DeSantis denied it, so the Hillsborough County Medical Examiner called a press conference and showed the press the letter... talk about getting caught lying.

The Tampa paper is supposedly suing the state of Florida for the Covid-19 info to be made public, I haven't heard anything about it since then.


_____________________________


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 643
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 4:31:51 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7643
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
Novavax gets $1.6B from government to develop coronavirus vaccine
July 7, 2020

quote:

The feds have committed $1.6 billion to help biotech firm Novavax develop its coronavirus vaccine and produce 100 million doses, potentially starting later this year.
.
.
.
The money will help Novavax kickstart production of its vaccine candidate, known as NVX-CoV2373, and fund a phase 3 clinical trial with up to 30,000 participants that is slated to begin in the fall. That study will be crucial to determining whether the vaccine is safe and effective.

Novavax has yet to announce results from its early-stage trial that started in Australia in May, though it expects to have preliminary data by the end of this month. The Maryland-based company’s agreement with the feds will require it to prove it can manufacture the vaccine on a large scale and distribute large quantities of it when needed, according to a news release.
.
.
.
The race for a vaccine that could help end the deadly global pandemic has so far produced 149 candidates, including 19 that are in clinical evaluation, according to the World Health Organization.


https://nypost.com/2020/07/07/novavax-gets-1-6b-from-government-to-develop-coronavirus-vaccine/

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to moore4807)
Post #: 644
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 4:45:49 AM   
sPzAbt653


Posts: 9184
Joined: 5/3/2007
From: east coast, usa
Status: offline
quote:

EPA is committed to identifying new tools and providing accurate and up-to-date information to help the American public

Well, everyone already knows that Lysol works, so the EPA can be added to the list of official bodies that are really doing nothing to actually help the public.

quote:

... she went public that she was replaced because her boss told her to fudge the numbers ...

Similar story to that in China when medical personnel attempted to inform the public of the virus [as seen in the video linked in post #635]. They were accused of rumor-mongering.

< Message edited by sPzAbt653 -- 7/8/2020 4:46:35 AM >

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 645
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 4:50:12 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7643
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

quote:

EPA is committed to identifying new tools and providing accurate and up-to-date information to help the American public


Well, everyone already knows that Lysol works, so the EPA can be added to the list of official bodies that are really doing nothing to actually help the public.


It has been tested and it can now advertise it. How many "cleaners" don't actually disinfect?


_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to sPzAbt653)
Post #: 646
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 6:31:02 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14028
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Sorry I maybe didn't explain myself very well. The author was suggesting that the US would see "dozens of NYCs around the country". I don't think that will be the case - my expectation is that in this 'first wave' Texas/California/Florida/Arizona/Georgia will end up with deaths/million similar to states like Michigan/Illinois (and indeed similar to Sweden who did not lockdown at all) - i.e. around 500-600 deaths/million. I don't think they will end up like NY.

IHME have updated again - they are now forecasting 208k deaths by November 1. The October 1 forecast has gone up a little (c.180-185k). UK has gone up also. With the extra month added the different predictions with universal masks are even more stark - 45k lives saved in the US and 20k in the UK. I don't understand why both governments are not being more proactive in mandating masks in most shared public spaces.



I did understand what you were saying and showing. It's just unclear how the US is going to stop the kinds of outbreaks that NY had if cases continue to grow. In NY it all happened in the dark, unseen, and seemed to explode. Now it's happening in clear view of increased testing (though still probably not enough) and we're all too aware of where unchecked growth of cases leads.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 647
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 6:35:21 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7643
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Sorry I maybe didn't explain myself very well. The author was suggesting that the US would see "dozens of NYCs around the country". I don't think that will be the case - my expectation is that in this 'first wave' Texas/California/Florida/Arizona/Georgia will end up with deaths/million similar to states like Michigan/Illinois (and indeed similar to Sweden who did not lockdown at all) - i.e. around 500-600 deaths/million. I don't think they will end up like NY.

IHME have updated again - they are now forecasting 208k deaths by November 1. The October 1 forecast has gone up a little (c.180-185k). UK has gone up also. With the extra month added the different predictions with universal masks are even more stark - 45k lives saved in the US and 20k in the UK. I don't understand why both governments are not being more proactive in mandating masks in most shared public spaces.



I did understand what you were saying and showing. It's just unclear how the US is going to stop the kinds of outbreaks that NY had if cases continue to grow. In NY it all happened in the dark, unseen, and seemed to explode. Now it's happening in clear view of increased testing (though still probably not enough) and we're all too aware of where unchecked growth of cases leads.


NYC also happened before the treatment was known. Weren't people ill with the coronavirus in NYC sent to nursing homes where many other people became ill and many died?

This time of year in the Northern Hemisphere, people outside will get a lot more vitamin D which will help their immune system, among other things.

< Message edited by RangerJoe -- 7/8/2020 6:47:06 AM >


_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 648
Totally brain damaged - 7/8/2020 4:42:10 PM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 862
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline
Man - this stuff just keeps on giving...

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/scientists-warn-of-potential-brain-damage-linked-to-covid-19


_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 649
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 4:45:27 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3071
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Sorry I maybe didn't explain myself very well. The author was suggesting that the US would see "dozens of NYCs around the country". I don't think that will be the case - my expectation is that in this 'first wave' Texas/California/Florida/Arizona/Georgia will end up with deaths/million similar to states like Michigan/Illinois (and indeed similar to Sweden who did not lockdown at all) - i.e. around 500-600 deaths/million. I don't think they will end up like NY.

IHME have updated again - they are now forecasting 208k deaths by November 1. The October 1 forecast has gone up a little (c.180-185k). UK has gone up also. With the extra month added the different predictions with universal masks are even more stark - 45k lives saved in the US and 20k in the UK. I don't understand why both governments are not being more proactive in mandating masks in most shared public spaces.



I did understand what you were saying and showing. It's just unclear how the US is going to stop the kinds of outbreaks that NY had if cases continue to grow. In NY it all happened in the dark, unseen, and seemed to explode. Now it's happening in clear view of increased testing (though still probably not enough) and we're all too aware of where unchecked growth of cases leads.


NYC also happened before the treatment was known. Weren't people ill with the coronavirus in NYC sent to nursing homes where many other people became ill and many died?

This time of year in the Northern Hemisphere, people outside will get a lot more vitamin D which will help their immune system, among other things.

Yup, New York did not start well but adjusted quickly. Overall, 20% of Covid deaths in NY state were in nursing homes. 20% As opposed to the nation average of 42%. As far as I can tell New York State had the lowest percentage of Covid Nursing home deaths in the country. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html


_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 650
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 5:11:53 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3071
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
It took the United States 100 days to reach 1 Million Covid cases. It too only 43 days to hit 2 million cases. We just hit 3 million. It took 17 days to go from 2 million to 3 million. The rate of infection is accelerating

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 651
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 5:34:36 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7643
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It took the United States 100 days to reach 1 Million Covid cases. It too only 43 days to hit 2 million cases. We just hit 3 million. It took 17 days to go from 2 million to 3 million. The rate of infection is accelerating


You are reporting known cases only. How many cases were there that resolved themselves that weren't known?

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 652
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 6:49:27 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3071
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It took the United States 100 days to reach 1 Million Covid cases. It too only 43 days to hit 2 million cases. We just hit 3 million. It took 17 days to go from 2 million to 3 million. The rate of infection is accelerating


You are reporting known cases only. How many cases were there that resolved themselves that weren't known?

Probably lots but that is the common tracking metric we have.

Yesterday new cases reported as follows:
Norway: 10
Denmark: 11
Sweden: 57
Germany: 298
U.S.: 55,442




_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 653
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 7:19:32 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7643
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It took the United States 100 days to reach 1 Million Covid cases. It too only 43 days to hit 2 million cases. We just hit 3 million. It took 17 days to go from 2 million to 3 million. The rate of infection is accelerating


You are reporting known cases only. How many cases were there that resolved themselves that weren't known?

Probably lots but that is the common tracking metric we have.

Yesterday new cases reported as follows:
Norway: 10
Denmark: 11
Sweden: 57
Germany: 298
U.S.: 55,442


Yes, the US has a lot more testing capabilities and are using them.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 654
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 7:46:38 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15243
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Sorry I maybe didn't explain myself very well. The author was suggesting that the US would see "dozens of NYCs around the country". I don't think that will be the case - my expectation is that in this 'first wave' Texas/California/Florida/Arizona/Georgia will end up with deaths/million similar to states like Michigan/Illinois (and indeed similar to Sweden who did not lockdown at all) - i.e. around 500-600 deaths/million. I don't think they will end up like NY.

IHME have updated again - they are now forecasting 208k deaths by November 1. The October 1 forecast has gone up a little (c.180-185k). UK has gone up also. With the extra month added the different predictions with universal masks are even more stark - 45k lives saved in the US and 20k in the UK. I don't understand why both governments are not being more proactive in mandating masks in most shared public spaces.



I did understand what you were saying and showing. It's just unclear how the US is going to stop the kinds of outbreaks that NY had if cases continue to grow. In NY it all happened in the dark, unseen, and seemed to explode. Now it's happening in clear view of increased testing (though still probably not enough) and we're all too aware of where unchecked growth of cases leads.


NYC also happened before the treatment was known. Weren't people ill with the coronavirus in NYC sent to nursing homes where many other people became ill and many died?

This time of year in the Northern Hemisphere, people outside will get a lot more vitamin D which will help their immune system, among other things.

Yup, New York did not start well but adjusted quickly. Overall, 20% of Covid deaths in NY state were in nursing homes. 20% As opposed to the nation average of 42%. As far as I can tell New York State had the lowest percentage of Covid Nursing home deaths in the country. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html


One thing apparent about nursing home deaths from COVID-19 in Canada is that the publicly run homes or the privately run homes in provinces with lots of regulations and inspections of the homes did much better than the for-profit run homes in Provinces that have minimal regulations and very few inspectors. People rail about the tax cost of regulations and civil servants hired as inspectors, but there is also a cost in lives and the quality of life of our seniors if we fail to do these things. Very few businesses will spend more than they are absolutely required to because the market demands maximum profit.

Most of Canadas dismal record on nursing home deaths came from two provinces. For comparison, Manitoba has had 7 deaths for 312 cases - something like 2.2%- while Canada's overall death rate from COVID is around 8%. And while most businesses have reopened in Manitoba, we still use distancing and masks without any argument. Nursing homes here are allowing one visitor at a time, by appointment, with distancing, masks and supervision by staff. Still no hugs allowed.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 655
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 8:33:43 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14028
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It took the United States 100 days to reach 1 Million Covid cases. It too only 43 days to hit 2 million cases. We just hit 3 million. It took 17 days to go from 2 million to 3 million. The rate of infection is accelerating


You are reporting known cases only. How many cases were there that resolved themselves that weren't known?

Probably lots but that is the common tracking metric we have.

Yesterday new cases reported as follows:
Norway: 10
Denmark: 11
Sweden: 57
Germany: 298
U.S.: 55,442





IHME is showing estimated infections based on some metric between actual positive tests, supposed asymptomatic and untested cases. It's currently at around 79k estimated/day. Their range is between 68k-92k/day.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 656
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 8:59:10 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7643
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Sorry I maybe didn't explain myself very well. The author was suggesting that the US would see "dozens of NYCs around the country". I don't think that will be the case - my expectation is that in this 'first wave' Texas/California/Florida/Arizona/Georgia will end up with deaths/million similar to states like Michigan/Illinois (and indeed similar to Sweden who did not lockdown at all) - i.e. around 500-600 deaths/million. I don't think they will end up like NY.

IHME have updated again - they are now forecasting 208k deaths by November 1. The October 1 forecast has gone up a little (c.180-185k). UK has gone up also. With the extra month added the different predictions with universal masks are even more stark - 45k lives saved in the US and 20k in the UK. I don't understand why both governments are not being more proactive in mandating masks in most shared public spaces.



I did understand what you were saying and showing. It's just unclear how the US is going to stop the kinds of outbreaks that NY had if cases continue to grow. In NY it all happened in the dark, unseen, and seemed to explode. Now it's happening in clear view of increased testing (though still probably not enough) and we're all too aware of where unchecked growth of cases leads.


NYC also happened before the treatment was known. Weren't people ill with the coronavirus in NYC sent to nursing homes where many other people became ill and many died?

This time of year in the Northern Hemisphere, people outside will get a lot more vitamin D which will help their immune system, among other things.

Yup, New York did not start well but adjusted quickly. Overall, 20% of Covid deaths in NY state were in nursing homes. 20% As opposed to the nation average of 42%. As far as I can tell New York State had the lowest percentage of Covid Nursing home deaths in the country. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html


One thing apparent about nursing home deaths from COVID-19 in Canada is that the publicly run homes or the privately run homes in provinces with lots of regulations and inspections of the homes did much better than the for-profit run homes in Provinces that have minimal regulations and very few inspectors. People rail about the tax cost of regulations and civil servants hired as inspectors, but there is also a cost in lives and the quality of life of our seniors if we fail to do these things. Very few businesses will spend more than they are absolutely required to because the market demands maximum profit.

Most of Canadas dismal record on nursing home deaths came from two provinces. For comparison, Manitoba has had 7 deaths for 312 cases - something like 2.2%- while Canada's overall death rate from COVID is around 8%. And while most businesses have reopened in Manitoba, we still use distancing and masks without any argument. Nursing homes here are allowing one visitor at a time, by appointment, with distancing, masks and supervision by staff. Still no hugs allowed.


I am surprised that they would not allow Hersheys hugs. If they were still in the plastic, airtight bag, the bag could be sterilized and whenever the resident needed a hug, one could be given. Same thing for the kisses.

Yes, there is a good reason for reasonable regulations. Just read "The Jungle" by Upton Sinclair.

< Message edited by RangerJoe -- 7/8/2020 9:03:16 PM >


_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 657
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 11:10:32 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 305
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It took the United States 100 days to reach 1 Million Covid cases. It too only 43 days to hit 2 million cases. We just hit 3 million. It took 17 days to go from 2 million to 3 million. The rate of infection is accelerating


You are reporting known cases only. How many cases were there that resolved themselves that weren't known?

Probably lots but that is the common tracking metric we have.

Yesterday new cases reported as follows:
Norway: 10
Denmark: 11
Sweden: 57
Germany: 298
U.S.: 55,442





IHME is showing estimated infections based on some metric between actual positive tests, supposed asymptomatic and untested cases. It's currently at around 79k estimated/day. Their range is between 68k-92k/day.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america



I think the thing with cases is there is very little scientific consensus on a) the numbers of asymptomatic infections that are not getting captured in the case numbers and b) the extent to which those carriers are able to pass on infections (whether directly or indirectly) towards the more vulnerable demographics.

Looking at how the IHME forecasts have responded to the 'real-time' data I think they are according far more weight to the more concrete mortality data than to what is much more uncertain speculation as to infection numbers.

I checked their historic forecasts for August 1 a couple of weeks ago and I think there was only one or two forecasts which were accurate to the actual number of deaths. All the rest were underestimates, many by a significant margin. My expectation is that that pattern will continue to be the case, albeit not to such a large extent.

< Message edited by Sammy5IsAlive -- 7/8/2020 11:11:16 PM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 658
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 11:15:01 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3071
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It took the United States 100 days to reach 1 Million Covid cases. It too only 43 days to hit 2 million cases. We just hit 3 million. It took 17 days to go from 2 million to 3 million. The rate of infection is accelerating


You are reporting known cases only. How many cases were there that resolved themselves that weren't known?

Probably lots but that is the common tracking metric we have.

Yesterday new cases reported as follows:
Norway: 10
Denmark: 11
Sweden: 57
Germany: 298
U.S.: 55,442


Yes, the US has a lot more testing capabilities and are using them.

Testing is up 37% and infections are up 152% So more testing is not the problem. more infections is the problem. Infections are outpacing testing by a huge margin. 37% more testing should result in 37% more infections found if your theory is correct.

Deaths are staring to catch up with cases. Arizona and Louisiana are seeing district upticks, Texas reported a new record for deaths today. 12 states have record hospitalizations. Must be more testing causing record hospitalizations and deaths. Yup, testing is causing record death

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 7/8/2020 11:21:57 PM >


_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 659
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/8/2020 11:29:09 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7643
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It took the United States 100 days to reach 1 Million Covid cases. It too only 43 days to hit 2 million cases. We just hit 3 million. It took 17 days to go from 2 million to 3 million. The rate of infection is accelerating


You are reporting known cases only. How many cases were there that resolved themselves that weren't known?

Probably lots but that is the common tracking metric we have.

Yesterday new cases reported as follows:
Norway: 10
Denmark: 11
Sweden: 57
Germany: 298
U.S.: 55,442


Yes, the US has a lot more testing capabilities and are using them.

Testing is up 37% and infections are up 152% So more testing is not the problem. more infections is the problem. Infections are outpacing testing by a huge margin. 37% more testing should result in 37% more infections found if your theory is correct.

Deaths are staring to catch up with cases. Arizona and Louisiana are seeing district upticks, Texas reported a new record for deaths today. 12 states have record hospitalizations. Must be more testing causing record hospitalizations and deaths. Yup, testing is causing record death


Don't be a$$.



_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 660
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