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RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

 
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RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 6:03:58 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9127
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Georgia was not "CAUGHT" fudging numbers, as John D implies. It did make a mistake in tabulating numbers several months ago, readily acknowledged doing so, and corrected it.

So far as I know, most or all of the instances of other states supposedly "fudging" are similar.

There have been allegations of oddities the other way. In the previous thread, Lowpe and one other person noted that North Carolina and Virginia treat multiple tests of a single person with Covid as multiple "positives." Others have noted (there and in this thread) that states receive greater funding for each additional case, at least creating an incentive for higher reporting. I don't know if there is "fudging" in those instances, for the same reason I'm skeptical of most of the cases John D cites. I don't assume any malus (or fudging) there, either.

John, you're pretty partisan. You excuse and tout states with 10x morality while roasting those with 1/10th mortality. Yesterday, you posted a link and held it out to say something that it didn't say. And you're using obnoxious terms to refer to leaders that you disagree with.

When NY, NJ and other states (and countries) were getting crushed, there was essentially unanimous support for them and their leaders and their health departments. With one exception, members of this community did not demean any other country or state or its leaders. We understood that they were facing a novel, difficult and terrible crisis. There were many posts supporting John personally. But he (and some others) see things through partisan eyeglasses - to him, the Red States are mismanaging and fudging and so on.

They're still doing much better, and many of us (not all) agreed that remaining closed down indefinitely wasn't an option. So perhaps these states too will end up in similar situations as NY eventually. If so it'll mostly be because smart and caring people faced tough choices that didn't work out. Just like New York.




So, they were caught having made a mistake. Semantics.

Here's a pic that singles out Georgia, along with a bunch of other states that aren't doing so hot (although this isn't adjusted for population size): https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1277305314413428738




quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

An illustration showing just how novel and surprising this was.





Haven't you (or at least other people around here) called out this particular instance of the WHO essentially engaging in BS artistry?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 511
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 6:09:10 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9127
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
Here's another state-by-state show of new cases that is adjusted for population.

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1277306943007227904


(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 512
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 6:34:50 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

....So, they were caught having made a mistake. Semantics.

...

Haven't you (or at least other people around here) called out this particular instance of the WHO essentially engaging in BS artistry?



1. We all know the difference between making a mistake, acknowledging it and correcting it, on the one hand, and "fudging" numbers (implying bad faith) on the other.

2. I don't understand your WHO comment/question.


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/29/2020 6:35:06 PM >

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 513
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 7:18:00 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15299
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

....So, they were caught having made a mistake. Semantics.

...

Haven't you (or at least other people around here) called out this particular instance of the WHO essentially engaging in BS artistry?



1. We all know the difference between making a mistake, acknowledging it and correcting it, on the one hand, and "fudging" numbers (implying bad faith) on the other.

2. I don't understand your WHO comment/question.


At one point there were posts using the same graphic to pillory China and WHO as being disingenuous about the virus and deliberately suppressing the fact that it could spread person to person. Now you have used that same graphic to show that they were as mystified about the nature of the virus as we were. Same info, different interpretations.


_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 514
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 7:31:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
What I meant to convey is the level of uncertainty about what was going on. Across the nation. Across the political spectrum. A lot of bright and caring people (and a sprinkling of knaves and scoundrels) got it wrong, even while trying to balance the unknown against what seemed prudent.

I may not have conveyed that well.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 515
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 7:36:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
To Lokasenna's point, I've never posted negatively about China. I don't know what they knew when, so I never commented in the prior thread nor in this one (except to note on one occasion that if they did know and suppressed it that would in fact be shameful). That particular issue doesn't interest me, mainly because it's highly partisan and I don't have access to raw data that would allow me to form an independent, non-partisan opinion I would have confidence in.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 516
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 7:38:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
I wouldn't presume bad faith on the part of a Chinese official or agency, because I don't know anything about China. Others do and seem to have strong feelings, but my default is to not cast people in a bad light without specific, credible reasons for doing so. But I do know Americans pretty well.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 517
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 9:30:03 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 305
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline
Politicians and Governments (at whatever level) are very rarely evil. I think that the vast majority are not stupid. Most try to act in what they see as the best interests of their 'constituents' (even if we might sometimes disagree significantly on the means by which that is achieved). But that doesn't mean that they are honest.

Looking at three examples from the UK:

1) For along time in our daily briefings from the government they were showing a slide comparing the UK with other European countries. It was frequently referred to as an example of how the UK response was performing well. When over time the UK overtook Italy/Spain/France the slide was discarded with and the political message changed to it being 'premature to draw country by country comparisions'

2) Our government set itself a target of performing 100k daily tests by a certain date. When it came towards that date the testing numbers shot up. It then became apparent that they were basing the numbers to a large extent on tests sent by post, many of which were faulty, many never returned.

3) The government's line is still that a 'protective ring' was placed around UK care homes. That is demonstrably false.

I don't dispute that the UK government has been trying to do it's best by the country. But the simple fact is that it is clear that they really dropped the ball. I would suggest that it is similarly clear that where possible they are trying to suppress that.

It's completely sensible to question the media and its motives as has been done at length in this thread and the previous one. But by the same measure it is completely naive to unquestioningly assume the honesty/probity of politicians, governments and the institutions under their control or influence (on both sides of the 'left/right' divide).

< Message edited by Sammy5IsAlive -- 6/29/2020 9:31:08 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 518
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 10:09:26 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7755
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

To BBfanboy: I doubt that's the case. I haven't heard anyone say anything like that. There are levels of responsibility and people defer to hierarchies, which are there for a reason, but to this point I've generally heard, "We'll help if needed and to the extent we can."



Signals are sent from the top. This fact is a key component of organizational psychology and culture. That's certainly as true of organizations like FEMA as it is for any other organization.

And what's the top doing? Cutting funding for testing and not taking it seriously, trying to wish it away or pretending it doesn't exist, and so on.

There has been no tangible federal response to COVID-19 that is worthy of mention. Please share what you've heard otherwise, as I'd be happy to be wrong... but aside from the CDC website I'm just not seeing it. The feds aren't physically doing anything of note.

What could they be doing? Certainly, for the most part states will have to manage on their own. But the feds could contribute emergency/disaster resources and assets, like the Navy (belatedly) did for NYC with that hospital ship. The feds could've built up a stockpile of ICU/ventilator resources that could travel around the country to wherever the next hot spot is, such as Texas's situation right now, but they didn't. Those in charge seem to have purposefully made the "to the extent that we can" part of your synopsis mean "we can't help you because we don't have the capability."

To that end, where's the massive testing regime? There's no reason that the richest nation in the history of humanity couldn't have created a gigantic testing and contact tracing regime at any point within the last 7 months if it had wanted to, with the resources coming from the federal level, that would have been able to be tapped into by the states as needed - and that would have us returning to a semblance of pre-COVID life sooner than whenever we're on track for now. Which is looking like "not until there's a vaccine."


California had a large stockpile of equipment but five million dollars per year was too much to maintain it. New York city had a stockpile, it disappeared before this time as well. Why should it be up to the Federal government?


I'd say that the examples you gave are a really good reason for why there should be resources at the federal level. Especially since the states you mentioned have constitutional mandates to have a balanced budget (which makes sense, since they can't control their own currency as they don't have one).

Anyway, what did they even have stockpiled?


They had ventilators, masks, and other equipment. I had posted on this previously. It would only have cost California five million US dollars per year to maintain the stockpile so don't tell me that California could not have afforded it. So why should the Federal government control the resources when the state and local governments should have it so it can be immediately used if it is needed?

< Message edited by RangerJoe -- 6/29/2020 10:20:03 PM >


_____________________________

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I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

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― Julia Child


(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 519
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 10:14:22 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2877
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

....So, they were caught having made a mistake. Semantics.

...

Haven't you (or at least other people around here) called out this particular instance of the WHO essentially engaging in BS artistry?



1. We all know the difference between making a mistake, acknowledging it and correcting it, on the one hand, and "fudging" numbers (implying bad faith) on the other.

2. I don't understand your WHO comment/question.



CR, go look at Georgia's DPH webpage.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report


There it is, antibodies being reported as part of the total.

Now see point 7 in this report.

https://www.doh.gov.ph/sites/default/files/health-update/dm2020-0180.pdf

Now, Georgia DPH disaggregate the testing methods in their reporting, but if you think that they'll be reporting the disagg data rather than the headline, then I've some magic beans to sell you.

That, CR, is how you fudge the numbers.



(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 520
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 10:20:38 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Where there's evidence of dishonesty or bad faith, let's call it out. But in this thread there are all kinds of allegations of shameful conduct, stupidity and of maliciousness/bad faith leaders when, IMO, the person making the post doesn't know. They're relying on information from other sources that may or may not be credible and may or may not be biased.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/29/2020 10:58:39 PM >

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 521
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 10:21:02 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2877
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Politicians and Governments (at whatever level) are very rarely evil. I think that the vast majority are not stupid. Most try to act in what they see as the best interests of their 'constituents' (even if we might sometimes disagree significantly on the means by which that is achieved). But that doesn't mean that they are honest.

Looking at three examples from the UK:

1) For along time in our daily briefings from the government they were showing a slide comparing the UK with other European countries. It was frequently referred to as an example of how the UK response was performing well. When over time the UK overtook Italy/Spain/France the slide was discarded with and the political message changed to it being 'premature to draw country by country comparisions'

2) Our government set itself a target of performing 100k daily tests by a certain date. When it came towards that date the testing numbers shot up. It then became apparent that they were basing the numbers to a large extent on tests sent by post, many of which were faulty, many never returned.

3) The government's line is still that a 'protective ring' was placed around UK care homes. That is demonstrably false.

I don't dispute that the UK government has been trying to do it's best by the country. But the simple fact is that it is clear that they really dropped the ball. I would suggest that it is similarly clear that where possible they are trying to suppress that.

It's completely sensible to question the media and its motives as has been done at length in this thread and the previous one. But by the same measure it is completely naive to unquestioningly assume the honesty/probity of politicians, governments and the institutions under their control or influence (on both sides of the 'left/right' divide).


I have some European friends that are frankly baffled by events in the UK. The dispute over the testing numbers, then SpAd-gate...

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 522
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 10:48:47 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15299
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

To BBfanboy: I doubt that's the case. I haven't heard anyone say anything like that. There are levels of responsibility and people defer to hierarchies, which are there for a reason, but to this point I've generally heard, "We'll help if needed and to the extent we can."



Signals are sent from the top. This fact is a key component of organizational psychology and culture. That's certainly as true of organizations like FEMA as it is for any other organization.

And what's the top doing? Cutting funding for testing and not taking it seriously, trying to wish it away or pretending it doesn't exist, and so on.

There has been no tangible federal response to COVID-19 that is worthy of mention. Please share what you've heard otherwise, as I'd be happy to be wrong... but aside from the CDC website I'm just not seeing it. The feds aren't physically doing anything of note.

What could they be doing? Certainly, for the most part states will have to manage on their own. But the feds could contribute emergency/disaster resources and assets, like the Navy (belatedly) did for NYC with that hospital ship. The feds could've built up a stockpile of ICU/ventilator resources that could travel around the country to wherever the next hot spot is, such as Texas's situation right now, but they didn't. Those in charge seem to have purposefully made the "to the extent that we can" part of your synopsis mean "we can't help you because we don't have the capability."

To that end, where's the massive testing regime? There's no reason that the richest nation in the history of humanity couldn't have created a gigantic testing and contact tracing regime at any point within the last 7 months if it had wanted to, with the resources coming from the federal level, that would have been able to be tapped into by the states as needed - and that would have us returning to a semblance of pre-COVID life sooner than whenever we're on track for now. Which is looking like "not until there's a vaccine."


California had a large stockpile of equipment but five million dollars per year was too much to maintain it. New York city had a stockpile, it disappeared before this time as well. Why should it be up to the Federal government?


I'd say that the examples you gave are a really good reason for why there should be resources at the federal level. Especially since the states you mentioned have constitutional mandates to have a balanced budget (which makes sense, since they can't control their own currency as they don't have one).

Anyway, what did they even have stockpiled?


They had ventilators, masks, and other equipment. I had posted on this previously. It would only have cost California five million US dollars per year to maintain the stockpile so don't tell me that California could not have afforded it. So why should the Federal government control the resources when the state and local governments should have it so it can be immediately used if it is needed?

My thought was not so much that the Federal Government should hold the stockpile (although a national security argument could be made for that); I was thinking instead of 50 states all checking with each other (2500 lines of communications?), it would be simple for FEMA to declare key medical equipment "national assets in the event of an emergency" and require every state to report weekly the location and availability of those assets in their state. From that database, states could check on the whereabouts of stuff they need for an emergency and ask FEMA to arrange transfer. FEMA would be the central point of contact because several states could simultaneously need the same equipment. So now you have 51 lines of communication rather than 2500.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 523
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 10:53:17 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15299
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I have some European friends that are frankly baffled by events in the UK. The dispute over the testing numbers, then SpAd-gate...



What is SpAd-gate? I couldn't get anything about it on Google.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 524
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 11:12:18 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15299
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Where there's evidence of dishonesty or bad faith, let's call it out. But in this thread there are all kinds of allegations of shameful conduct, stupidity and of maliciousness/bad faith leaders when, IMO, the person making the post doesn't know. They're relying on information from other sources that may or may not be credible and may or may not be biased.



I think we are on the same wavelength CR. The truth is usually between polar opposites so I see the Chinese as fumbling the handling of the virus because they did not appreciate that it could be a pandemic at first. They are prone to suppress local information as an "internal matter that is no other country's business to ask about". They also did not know what to say about the virus because they were still learning stuff.

So they did suppress some info but because they didn't think anyone else needed to know. Once it was clearly headed around the world, they joined the scientific community in trying to get a handle on it. At the same time, other countries had enough indications that it could be a problem to prepare responses and didn't do so because they hoped it was contained in China. When assessing risk, the two dimensions are:
1. low to high probability
2. low to high impact

Given the death tolls being reported in China (with evidence they were under-reporting the numbers), our leaders should have given the second point a high rating and that is reason to prepare for the worst.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 525
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 11:17:25 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 305
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I have some European friends that are frankly baffled by events in the UK. The dispute over the testing numbers, then SpAd-gate...



What is SpAd-gate? I couldn't get anything about it on Google.


I think he is talking about Dominic Cummings.

In UK politics SpAd is an abbreviation for 'Special Advisor' - i.e. a high level non-elected official working within the government but outside of the in theory impartial Civil Service. In theory (again!) they are supposed to be entirely subordinate to the elected officials they serve.

Happy to be corrected if I have misunderstood...

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 526
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 11:22:07 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15299
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I have some European friends that are frankly baffled by events in the UK. The dispute over the testing numbers, then SpAd-gate...



What is SpAd-gate? I couldn't get anything about it on Google.


I think he is talking about Dominic Cummings.

In UK politics SpAd is an abbreviation for 'Special Advisor' - i.e. a high level non-elected official working within the government but outside of the in theory impartial Civil Service. In theory (again!) they are supposed to be entirely subordinate to the elected officials they serve.

Happy to be corrected if I have misunderstood...

I am familiar with the several controversies around Mr. Cummings because I watch BBC News frequently. I hope his eyes are working well now ... enough said!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 527
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 11:23:11 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 305
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Politicians and Governments (at whatever level) are very rarely evil. I think that the vast majority are not stupid. Most try to act in what they see as the best interests of their 'constituents' (even if we might sometimes disagree significantly on the means by which that is achieved). But that doesn't mean that they are honest.

Looking at three examples from the UK:

1) For along time in our daily briefings from the government they were showing a slide comparing the UK with other European countries. It was frequently referred to as an example of how the UK response was performing well. When over time the UK overtook Italy/Spain/France the slide was discarded with and the political message changed to it being 'premature to draw country by country comparisions'

2) Our government set itself a target of performing 100k daily tests by a certain date. When it came towards that date the testing numbers shot up. It then became apparent that they were basing the numbers to a large extent on tests sent by post, many of which were faulty, many never returned.

3) The government's line is still that a 'protective ring' was placed around UK care homes. That is demonstrably false.

I don't dispute that the UK government has been trying to do it's best by the country. But the simple fact is that it is clear that they really dropped the ball. I would suggest that it is similarly clear that where possible they are trying to suppress that.

It's completely sensible to question the media and its motives as has been done at length in this thread and the previous one. But by the same measure it is completely naive to unquestioningly assume the honesty/probity of politicians, governments and the institutions under their control or influence (on both sides of the 'left/right' divide).


I have some European friends that are frankly baffled by events in the UK. The dispute over the testing numbers, then SpAd-gate...



Ha just realised that by talking about the UK I've dragged Scotland (and NI/Wales) into what were almost universally English failings .

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 528
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 11:26:56 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15299
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Ha just realised that by talking about the UK I've dragged Scotland (and NI/Wales) into what were almost universally English failings .

Easy now! Let's not start any semi-international incidents!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 529
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/29/2020 11:28:42 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7755
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

To BBfanboy: I doubt that's the case. I haven't heard anyone say anything like that. There are levels of responsibility and people defer to hierarchies, which are there for a reason, but to this point I've generally heard, "We'll help if needed and to the extent we can."



Signals are sent from the top. This fact is a key component of organizational psychology and culture. That's certainly as true of organizations like FEMA as it is for any other organization.

And what's the top doing? Cutting funding for testing and not taking it seriously, trying to wish it away or pretending it doesn't exist, and so on.

There has been no tangible federal response to COVID-19 that is worthy of mention. Please share what you've heard otherwise, as I'd be happy to be wrong... but aside from the CDC website I'm just not seeing it. The feds aren't physically doing anything of note.

What could they be doing? Certainly, for the most part states will have to manage on their own. But the feds could contribute emergency/disaster resources and assets, like the Navy (belatedly) did for NYC with that hospital ship. The feds could've built up a stockpile of ICU/ventilator resources that could travel around the country to wherever the next hot spot is, such as Texas's situation right now, but they didn't. Those in charge seem to have purposefully made the "to the extent that we can" part of your synopsis mean "we can't help you because we don't have the capability."

To that end, where's the massive testing regime? There's no reason that the richest nation in the history of humanity couldn't have created a gigantic testing and contact tracing regime at any point within the last 7 months if it had wanted to, with the resources coming from the federal level, that would have been able to be tapped into by the states as needed - and that would have us returning to a semblance of pre-COVID life sooner than whenever we're on track for now. Which is looking like "not until there's a vaccine."


California had a large stockpile of equipment but five million dollars per year was too much to maintain it. New York city had a stockpile, it disappeared before this time as well. Why should it be up to the Federal government?


I'd say that the examples you gave are a really good reason for why there should be resources at the federal level. Especially since the states you mentioned have constitutional mandates to have a balanced budget (which makes sense, since they can't control their own currency as they don't have one).

Anyway, what did they even have stockpiled?


They had ventilators, masks, and other equipment. I had posted on this previously. It would only have cost California five million US dollars per year to maintain the stockpile so don't tell me that California could not have afforded it. So why should the Federal government control the resources when the state and local governments should have it so it can be immediately used if it is needed?

My thought was not so much that the Federal Government should hold the stockpile (although a national security argument could be made for that); I was thinking instead of 50 states all checking with each other (2500 lines of communications?), it would be simple for FEMA to declare key medical equipment "national assets in the event of an emergency" and require every state to report weekly the location and availability of those assets in their state. From that database, states could check on the whereabouts of stuff they need for an emergency and ask FEMA to arrange transfer. FEMA would be the central point of contact because several states could simultaneously need the same equipment. So now you have 51 lines of communication rather than 2500.


I agree that the federal government should coordinate information and be a clearing house for information. Not just for this but for other things as well such as education.

Some of the equipment that California had was dispensed for wildfires (the masks) while the ventilators were passed out to local organizations. Those local organizations, if they did not need the ventilators, usually sold them. They were probably sold to middlemen and probably left the country.

The masks are needed by the firefighting people, were issued but then not replaced. A stockpile of those will only be good for 5 years after manufacturing so there should have been a system of Last In - First Out but keeping an average of 4 years supply on hand. Something to consider for the future. No, the manufacturers should not be required to have the stockpile.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 530
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/30/2020 9:04:11 AM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2877
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Politicians and Governments (at whatever level) are very rarely evil. I think that the vast majority are not stupid. Most try to act in what they see as the best interests of their 'constituents' (even if we might sometimes disagree significantly on the means by which that is achieved). But that doesn't mean that they are honest.

Looking at three examples from the UK:

1) For along time in our daily briefings from the government they were showing a slide comparing the UK with other European countries. It was frequently referred to as an example of how the UK response was performing well. When over time the UK overtook Italy/Spain/France the slide was discarded with and the political message changed to it being 'premature to draw country by country comparisions'

2) Our government set itself a target of performing 100k daily tests by a certain date. When it came towards that date the testing numbers shot up. It then became apparent that they were basing the numbers to a large extent on tests sent by post, many of which were faulty, many never returned.

3) The government's line is still that a 'protective ring' was placed around UK care homes. That is demonstrably false.

I don't dispute that the UK government has been trying to do it's best by the country. But the simple fact is that it is clear that they really dropped the ball. I would suggest that it is similarly clear that where possible they are trying to suppress that.

It's completely sensible to question the media and its motives as has been done at length in this thread and the previous one. But by the same measure it is completely naive to unquestioningly assume the honesty/probity of politicians, governments and the institutions under their control or influence (on both sides of the 'left/right' divide).


I have some European friends that are frankly baffled by events in the UK. The dispute over the testing numbers, then SpAd-gate...



Ha just realised that by talking about the UK I've dragged Scotland (and NI/Wales) into what were almost universally English failings .


What has been interesting is to look at the metrics.

In terms of the stats per capita, the devolved administrations don't seem to be massively different from the overall UK picture.

Recent polling seems to suggest is that the major difference has been in the communications from the devolved administrations to the public and the perceptions thereof.

On top of that, Sturgeon and Foster (unsure about Drakeford - Wales tends to go under my radar) have both been willing to push back against attempts to "force the pace" of easing restrictions and diverge from the overall UK policy.

That's combined to drive a perception of them having handled the crisis better that isn't really reflected in the metrics.

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 531
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/30/2020 10:04:33 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14031
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Where there's evidence of dishonesty or bad faith, let's call it out. But in this thread there are all kinds of allegations of shameful conduct, stupidity and of maliciousness/bad faith leaders when, IMO, the person making the post doesn't know. They're relying on information from other sources that may or may not be credible and may or may not be biased.




You're very defensive about Georgia and the South. No one else wishes that the Southern states do poorly, in fact quite the opposite. The posts that you respond to with such force are usually calling out decisions that don't meet standards for how best practice dealing with this pandemic should operate as shown by countries that have been hit earlier and by recommendations from the WHO and experts in the States.

When I (and others) criticised the early Georgia reopening it wasn't political, I was human concern. If a [R] or [D] is in the governor's seat I for one usually don't even know, and don't care who they are if they're doing best by the people of their state.

The reopening in most of the US states now having problems were all done before cases were reduced sufficiently to protect better against a big second wave. All areas will have a second wave, as we now see. It's just how big and how controllable will it be?

Do governments manage it as Germany has, by getting numbers very low before opening, having a very successful track and trace system in place, and strong mask wearing social distancing measures still operating? Do they then swiftly close outbreaks into pockets, reducing spread, and test like crazy?

We see indications many places in the US aren't doing these things which is a worry. It should worry you too.

< Message edited by obvert -- 6/30/2020 10:06:49 AM >


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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 532
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/30/2020 1:04:55 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15299
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
Oh Crap! Not another one!

https://globalnews.ca/news/7123249/china-new-swine-flu-detected/

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(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 533
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/30/2020 3:28:45 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7755
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Oh Crap! Not another one!

https://globalnews.ca/news/7123249/china-new-swine-flu-detected/


That link would not open for me:

New swine flu with pandemic potential identified by China researchers
G4 strain has already infected 10% of industry’s workers in China but no evidence yet that it can be passed from human to human

quote:

Researchers in China have discovered a new type of swine flu that is capable of triggering a pandemic, according to a study in the US science journal PNAS, although experts said there is no imminent threat.

Named G4, it is genetically descended from the H1N1 strain that caused a pandemic in 2009.

It possesses “all the essential hallmarks of being highly adapted to infect humans”, said the authors, scientists at Chinese universities and China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention, in the study published on Monday.

Between 2011 and 2018, researchers took 30,000 nasal swabs from pigs in slaughterhouses in 10 Chinese provinces and in a veterinary hospital, allowing them to isolate 179 swine flu viruses.

The majority were of a new kind that has been dominant among pigs since 2016.
.
.
.
G4 was observed to be highly infectious, replicating in human cells and causing more serious symptoms in ferrets than other viruses do.

Tests also showed that any immunity humans gain from exposure to seasonal flu does not provide protection from G4.

More than one in 10 swine workers in the new study had already been infected, according to antibody blood tests which showed exposure to the virus.

The tests also showed that as many as 4.4% of the general population also appeared to have been exposed.

The virus has therefore already passed from animals to humans but there is no evidence yet that it can be passed from human to human – the scientists’ main worry.

The World Health Organization (WHO) will read the Chinese study carefully, spokesman Christian Lindmeier told a Geneva briefing on Tuesday, saying it was important to collaborate on findings and keep tabs on animal populations.

“It also highlights we cannot let our guard down on influenza and need to be vigilant and continue surveillance even in the coronavirus pandemic,” he added.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told a daily news conference on Tuesday that China was closely following developments. “We will take all necessary measures to prevent the spread and outbreak of any virus,” he said.

The study highlights the risks of viruses crossing the species barrier into humans, especially in densely populated regions in China, where millions live close to farms, breeding facilities, slaughterhouses and wet markets.
.
.
.
“It is of concern that human infection of G4 virus will further human adaptation and increase the risk of a human pandemic,” the researchers wrote.

The authors called for urgent measures to monitor people working with pigs.

James Wood, head of the department of veterinary medicine at Cambridge University, said: “The work comes as a salutary reminder that we are constantly at risk of new emergence of zoonotic pathogens and that farmed animals – with which humans have greater contact than with wildlife – may act as the source for important pandemic viruses.”

A zoonotic infection is caused by a pathogen that has jumped from a non-human animal into a human.

Although it is capable of infecting humans, there is no imminent risk of a new pandemic, said Carl Bergstrom, a biologist at the University of Washington.
“There’s no evidence that G4 is circulating in humans, despite five years of extensive exposure,” he said on Twitter. “That’s the key context to keep in mind.”


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/30/new-swine-flu-with-pandemic-potential-identified-by-china-researchers

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 534
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/1/2020 1:14:53 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Despite the increase in cases and the media feeding frenzy, mortality continues to drop in Georgia and the US. The 7-day rolling average for the US dropped below 590 today, about 25% of its peak levels in mid- and late April.

IHME took a look at the rising case load and adjusted projections again. Downward, unbelievably. With new cases going through the roof, mortality projection decreased from 179k to 175k for the US. Georgia dropped from 6k to 5k (a 50% reduction in the past week).





< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/1/2020 2:36:39 AM >

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 535
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/1/2020 2:06:14 AM   
sPzAbt653


Posts: 9188
Joined: 5/3/2007
From: east coast, usa
Status: offline
quote:

no evidence yet that it can be passed from human to human

LOL !!

Posted this earlier, looks like it needs to be posted again:

Jan. 14 & 15 - Chinese officials received confidential instructions from President Xi, and all regions were warned to “prepare for and respond to a pandemic”.
Jan. 24 to Feb. 29 - China imported 2.5 billion pieces of epidemic safety equipment, including over two billion safety masks.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6858818/coronavirus-china-united-front-canada-protective-equipment-shortage/?utm_source=%40globalnews&utm_medium=Twitter

Right or Wrong is up to the individual to decide, but it wasn't negligence or incompetence. China knew what it was doing as far as buying up all the PPE. As for other instances of corruption, the USA and many other countries have been giving hundreds of millions of dollars to outfits like WHO and CDC in order to investigate and prepare for coranavirus' and I think we can all admit that we haven't gotten our money's worth. On a more local level, here in the immensely corrupt state of Maryland, USA, the governor brokered a $9m deal for incomplete S. Korean testing kits that no local labs could use and to this day he can still not produce one single kit from his deal.

I give everyone the benefit of doubt at first, and I don't think there is 'evil' at work, but when I see details such as those above I don't have a problem being suspicious.

Friendly reminder




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 536
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/1/2020 2:19:37 AM   
sPzAbt653


Posts: 9188
Joined: 5/3/2007
From: east coast, usa
Status: offline
Today I finally heard the first talk of Air Purification and Circulation Systems for indoor businesses. The human race should be in panic mode to get this done before the onset of fall and another flu season. Mask wearing, washing hands and social distancing have very little effect, and a vaccine is not forthcoming although to sooth the minds of the masses they will announce there is one included in the regular seasonal flu vaccine. The stories I've heard of the long lasting effects are enough to keep my level of concern fairly high. And the neurological effects are scarcely spoken of even though we continue to see the senseless acts of protesting, looting and destruction all across the Earth.

My favorite burger place opened back up, but how do I know if the air is safe to breathe ? Chairs on tables, the sign of the time.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to sPzAbt653)
Post #: 537
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/1/2020 2:36:26 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7755
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
As a reminder, please refrain from all comments that may be construed as political - especially in regards to current events. This thread should just be for the coronavirus and similar problems such as a possible new pandemic.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to sPzAbt653)
Post #: 538
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/1/2020 5:12:40 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7755
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Takes Action to Help Facilitate Timely Development of Safe, Effective COVID-19 Vaccines

quote:

The FDA strongly encourages the inclusion of diverse populations in all phases of clinical development, including populations most affected by COVID-19, specifically racial and ethnic minorities, as well as adequate representation in late phase trials of elderly individuals and those with medical comorbidities. Sponsors are also encouraged to include studies in their development plans that would provide data to support use during pregnancy, as well as plan for pediatric assessments of safety and effectiveness.

The guidance also discusses the importance of ensuring that the sizes of clinical trials are large enough to demonstrate the safety and effectiveness of a vaccine. It conveys that the FDA would expect that a COVID-19 vaccine would prevent disease or decrease its severity in at least 50% of people who are vaccinated.


https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-takes-action-help-facilitate-timely-development-safe-effective-covid

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 539
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 7/1/2020 5:21:02 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7755
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
What Americans Need to Know About Europe’s Travel Ban
The E.U. and other European countries will begin welcoming some nonessential travelers on July 1, but Americans will not be on the list, at least at first. Here, answers to travelers’ questions.

quote:

Who is allowed to enter Europe?
As of July 1, European nations (all members of the European Union, as well as the non-E.U. European nations of Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Liechtenstein) are expected to begin opening their borders to residents of Algeria, Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, Montenegro, Morocco, New Zealand, Rwanda, Serbia, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia and Uruguay. Residents of Andorra, San Marino, Monaco and the Vatican will also be allowed entry. China is on the list, “subject to confirmation of reciprocity” — that is, if the country will open its borders to European travelers. The official press statement noted that individual European nations may decide to take a progressive approach to lifting restrictions on travel from the listed countries. Residents of the United States, where the spread of Covid-19 has not been controlled, are not allowed to enter the European Union unless they qualify for an exception.


https://www.nytimes.com/article/eu-travel-ban-explained-usa.html

I guess that they don't like Americans drinking coke while eating their French meals . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 540
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